Crown Jewels: Responsibility, Royals vs. Tigers, Fifth Starter

Spring training is so close for the Royals and there's finally big-time reason for optimism.

I know not every Royals fan is a Chiefs fan (and vice versa), but I also know that the middle of a Venn diagram of the two fanbases is pretty full. So apologies if you’re not in that middle section, but trips to the Super Bowl for the Chiefs are made that much better with the fact that there is basically no time between the end of their season and the start of spring training. Sure there are a few weeks before actual regular season games start, but it’s nice not just looking out the window with nothing really to cheer for. I have lived in Kansas City my whole life and been both a Chiefs and Royals fan my whole life, so I love what the Chiefs are doing, but I think what I’ll miss most when this run inevitably ends is the quick flip from football to baseball.

Even if you’re not a Chiefs fan, though, the end is almost here as pitchers and catchers will report here in less than two weeks and there are already a good number of players who are either already in Surprise or will be there before that report date. We are so agonizingly close to hearing who is in the best of shape of their lives. I’ll use this space to tell you what I have coming up here in the next few weeks.

I’ll start my roster projections, probably next week. I like to do one before spring training starts and then update that a few times throughout the spring. I’ll be writing about spring storylines, maybe next week for a couple but over the next two or three weeks. I’ll actually be boots on the ground in Surprise in early March, so you’ll get coverage directly from where the Royals are, which is always fun for me. And I’m really looking forward to just having actual baseball to write about.

This week’s newsletters:

Prospects Poised to Help the 2025 Royals

Royals Bolster the Bullpen with Carlos Estevez

Have the Royals Been Too Responsible?

There might be a laugh or two from reading the title of this section, but I think it’s important to note that I believe the Royals have been very careful this winter. And it might be to their detriment. I’ll tell you that I wrote an entire newsletter that was going to go out yesterday about this, but then they went and they made a big-ish signing and that was more important. But I wonder a bit if they’ve been too discerning when looking at upgrades for their team this winter. This quote from Andrew Friedman comes to mind:

“If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

I know that the Dodgers are different animal, but he’s not wrong. If you’re on the free agent market looking for logical and rational deals, the odds are that you’re not going to get much done. One thing that I won’t do is crush a team for doing something that I at least understand the thought process though. The Royals need a bat to put in the middle of the order. The market from the start wasn’t great for that, at least not in free agency. Look at what’s been out there.

Some who have signed this winter include Anthony Santander, who has never hit for average or gotten on base, doesn’t run well and doesn’t defend well. Then there’s Jurickson Profar who has many of the same issues as Santander and a shorter track record. Or maybe you prefer Jesse Winker, a platoon bat who is a decidedly bad defender. Perhaps Teoscar Hernandez who was basically never leaving the Dodgers, is more your speed. Joc Pederson is a DH. Andrew McCutchen was basically never leaving the Pirates. Max Kepler has been above average by wRC+ three times in nine full seasons. Michael Confor. Tyler O’Neill has huge power but strikes out a ton and has had all sorts of injury issues. And Juan Soto, who signed for literally more than a quarter of a billion dollars.

I pinch hit for Rany Jazayerli on Kauffman Corner this week, and Soren Petro mentioned that the Royals were interested in Santander and tried to get something done. But, if my logical skills are correct, it sounds like they just didn’t want to pay him what he wanted. And from conversations I’ve had, that’s not because they were being cheap. They were being smart. The Royals could have signed any of them but Soto realistically. But they stuck to their guns. And now we’re sitting here hoping that another iteration of MJ Melendez’s swing can allow him to put up 80 percent of the numbers he did in the minors in 2021. There’s still time to go get someone, of course, but the Royals have been very responsible in their evaluations.

My question is if that’s the wise play. A fan’s job is to root for the team and the next season is more important than one three or four years away. A front office’s job is to build a sustainable winner. Sometimes that means saying “look, I know this guy helps us in 2025, but the 2027 roster is a mess because we think he’ll age poorly.” But I do wonder a bit with the rest of the division looking like it does and, thus, the AL Central looking very winnable, if they should think a little more like a fan and worry about 2027 or 2028 in 2027 or 2028. There’s a balance, but I think they’ve been a little too logical and rational this winter. Again, I totally get it. I just think you have to break away from doing everything for perfect and logical reasons and just take a leap sometimes.

Comparing the Royals and Tigers

It’s kind of funny listening to people talk about where they think teams will finish in 2025 and who is up and coming and who is maybe due for some regression. To me, the Royals and Tigers are in very similar boats and coming off almost identical seasons. Both finished 86-76. Both made the playoffs after years of, well, not. But it really does seem like people are more bullish on the Tigers than the Royals, which I find kind of interesting. It’s probably because they finished their season by going 34-19 in their final 53 games. But what’s really interesting (maybe only to me) is that’s the same record that the Royals started with.

While Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in the American League, Cole Ragans isn’t far behind. In the Cy Young voting, Seth Lugo was actually closer than Ragans, but I don’t think anyone believes Ragans isn’t the ace of the staff. Still, I’d take Lugo and Michael Wacha over Reese Olson and Alex Cobb, personally. I think the Tigers bullpen is better, though I’m not completely sure of that, especially with the addition of Estevez. I’d take Lucas Erceg over anyone the Tigers throw out there and there’s at least an argument that Estevez is the second-best (though I’d have him probably fourth between the two teams). While the Tigers pitching is impressive (and would almost definitely be better if they re-add Jack Flaherty), it’s pretty darn close to me.

Offensively, I feel like the Tigers get a lot of run for their upside, but the Royals have the best player on the field when the two teams play, and it’s Bobby Witt Jr. That much is obvious. I would take Riley Greene over anyone else the Royals have, but I sort of feel like their offenses are similar. Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez are solid answers to Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows even if they’re different types of players. Jonathan India and Gleyber Torres are kind of similar in terms of value. Michael Massey and Colt Keith are vaguely similar in terms of value. I don’t know.

I’m not entirely sure what my point is other than that, as the teams are currently constructed, I think they’re pretty equal. A strong finish for the Tigers is easier for people to mentally mean something for the next season than an identically strong start from the previous year is. I think the two teams are pretty evenly matched and the differences will be in how the young players step forward. If Melendez and Massey reach potential but Keith and, say, Trey Sweeney don’t, well the Royals are likely going to be better.

I also like the health of the Royals rotation more even if you can’t count on it. Olson, Cobb and Casey Mize all have very real health issues that we haven’t really seen from Lugo and Wacha at least. Jackson Jobe could be a difference for them in the rotation or if they were to get another starter, it could make a difference too. I think there’s a chance these two teams end up 1-2 in the division. I don’t think there’s a huge gap from one through four with the Twins and Guardians, if I’m being honest. Any order you put those four teams is defensible. But the Tigers getting all this attention, to me, seems like a lot of recency bias.

The Fifth Starter

Assuming health (and what an assumption that can be), the Royals top three in their rotation is fully set with Ragans, Lugo and Wacha. Nobody would argue that. After those three, I think the fourth spot belongs to Michael Lorenzen to start the year (and maybe all season, but we’ll see about that). Which leaves one spot in the rotation to fill, and the candidates are actually quite interesting. You might remember last season, the Royals came into camp with the fifth starter job held by Jordan Lyles, though they told us there was a competition for that job. Nobody believed it.

As camp progressed, Daniel Lynch IV didn’t look great and Lyles didn’t look great. But Alec Marsh sure did. And, surprise of all surprises, he actually took that job. Lyles was put into the bullpen as a reliever to apparently only be used when the Royals led by nine runs and then was put on the restricted list and ultimately released. To be honest, signing all those guys last winter was great, but when they took a guy making $8.5 million and shoved him to the corner of the bullpen because he wasn’t the best option was when I realized that they were different than they’d been for quite some time. It was a nice feeling. And now this year, the competition isn’t something we doubt.

There could be trades to either strengthen or weaken this competition in the next few weeks before the season begins, but as far as I can tell, the candidates are Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, Lynch and Marsh. I am wondering a bit if they’ve given any thought to stretching James McArthur back out. I know he didn’t fare well as a starter with the Phillies, but he has four pitches and has started before. I’d be curious to see what he can do with his enhanced repertoire since the Royals acquired him. That’s a side note, so do with that what you will mentally, but I'm a bit curious. You might be wondering where Kyle Wright is and I think he’ll be a factor at some point, but I don’t get much of a sense that he’ll be available at the start of the season. That’s fine because, as we’ve discussed so much, they’ll need depth.

I think the favorite is Bubic. While I have some questions if it’s the right move to take him out of the bullpen, the Royals have consistently believed he’s a starter long-term. I have those questions, but you can read in the newsletter I linked that I also think there’s every chance in the world the changes he made translate quite well to starting. He could replicate what Brady Singer did pretty easily, albeit in fewer innings because I can’t imagine he’ll throw 180. So he’s the guy going into camp with the job to lose. But, again, Lyles was that guy last year and didn’t win the job, so I think it’s fair game.

It’s easy to forget now, but Marsh was solid enough as a fifth starter and he was actually really good for the first couple months of the season. The Royals would like better, but if you penciled them in for a 4.50 ERA from the fifth spot, they’d probably take it. Cameron has the upside of having never failed in the big leagues, but also has shown he can get swings and misses and throw strikes. That’s big. I don’t think he has a real shot to win the job out of spring, but he can show something for later. I don’t think Lynch is a real candidate because the Royals loved what he brought to the bullpen and think it’s the right role, but he could surprise too having experienced relatively extended success as a big leaguer for the first time.

If I’m being honest, I still wouldn’t hate them bringing in another starter. I’m not sure they need to spend big, but if they can push Lorenzen to the five and keep Bubic in the bullpen, you start to see how that can be one of the two or three best pitching staffs in the American League. They need a bat still, but there are worse things than going all-in on run prevention too.

This Week’s Underdog Picks

There’s no game, but the Chiefs play in a pretty big game next week, so I’m going to do one set of picks this week and then another next week to share with you. I promise it’ll be all baseball, all the time once the season gets going, but for now, there’s no baseball to be played. I’m going to give my Mahomes and Hurts picks in one play and then I’ll do skill position players next week.

Jalen Hurts 1.5 Passing TDs - Lower

Hurts has now played eight playoff games and he’s thrown for more than one touchdown in two of them. Against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57, he was great, but only threw for one touchdown. The Eagles run and then they run and then they run some more. I think Hurts is going to have to throw to win this game, but I think the TDs they score are on the ground.

Jalen Hurts 102.5 1H Passing Yards - Higher

The Chiefs are going to be geared up for the run and I think the Eagles know that, so they’ll come out throwing more than expected and that’ll lead to some yards in the first half through the air.

Patrick Mahomes 36.5 Passing Attempts - Higher

The Eagles front four is pretty fantastic, so I think Mahomes is going to have to throw the ball and they’re going to do it with a quick and short passing game to account for the pass rush. My only concern here is that both teams can really hold the ball, so if there are fewer possessions, it’ll make it tough to get to 37 pass attempts, but I think he does.

Patrick Mahomes 11.5 Longest Rush - Higher

It’s going to be 3rd and 13 or something and the Eagles are going to get home, but Mahomes is going to escape and find his way to the first down line. It’s a tale as old as time.

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