What do you think is Bubic's innings cap this year? I have to assume he's limited in some capacity, which poses an issue if he opens the year in the fifth spot. That would burn a lot of his available innings early in the season and limit KC's flexibility later if there's an injury or two. I'm with you thinking their best options are A) Piggyback Bubic and Marsh/Wright/whoever or B) Bubic in the bullpen at least for the first half (or until a SP is needed).
It’s a good question. He threw about 70 total innings last year and a little more than 140 in 2022, his last healthy season. I’d guess 140 is about where they’d like to keep him, but I think it’s more likely that it’ll be based on a lot of factors. But it’s a good point that maybe you’d rather have Bubic as a starter down the stretch. On the flip side, maybe you’d love to add that sort of relief help down the stretch knowing other guys could have progressed by then to step in. I don’t know the answer.
Part of me wonders if he's limited to more like 100. Maybe that's overly conservative. He's just never had a huge workload so doubling from 70 to 140 feels like a leap. The projection systems have him at 120, so maybe that's the sweet spot?
Couldn’t love the idea of McArthur starting again more. Gives you an excuse to send him to AAA and buys you time to work with him. They don’t need (want..?) him in the pen to start the year. Though I know you will say no need for an excuse.
I’d love nothing more than to throw a bunch of money for one year at Flahery. Then trade Marsh/Garcia/ Ramirez (C) for the best bat you can. Who knows who that is. Then you’re the favorite in the central.
I’ve thought about Flaherty too and he’s fascinating to me. I think he’s going to need to sign the 2022 Carlos Rodon deal at this point, which every team should be in on. What I find interesting is that the Yankees didn’t like the medicals and the two teams he pitched for don’t seem to have had much interest at all in him, at least not at the numbers he was seeking earlier. Should that tell us something? Do we especially care on a one year deal?
The Chiefs making the Super Bowl every year keeps us invested in Football until Spring Training, but it makes this extra week between the AFC championship and the Super Bowl just absolutely murderous. There are two weeks all year without any sports to look forward to as a combo Chiefs/Royals fan, but the tension leading to the Super Bowl makes it far worse than the regular season bye week
This might just be the dad of a two-year-old talking, but I'm loving this week with no sports stress. On top of everything else, I don't have to hope she doesn't have a meltdown right before a 4th and 1 play because the pretzel she wants is broken or because I sat 7 inches from where she wanted me to sit. But yeah, other than that, this is a looooooooooong week.
Personally, I'm pretty OK with what they've done this offseason. I had relatively low expectations going into it, and was immediately surprised with them being willing to move on from Singer (a great sign for the organization and the front office's continued change from the old regime), but not by the Wacha signing (I figured he would stay if they gave him anything near what he wanted). I wasn't SUPER sold that India was the best option they could have gotten for Singer, but I can't see how anyone can argue that his overall value in the number of runs produced over the course of a year, with Bobby/Vinnie/Salvy following, him isn't going to vastly outweigh the number of runs given up by whoever replaces Singer in the rotation, and more runs on the average means more wins for the team.
That they weren't able to get a better outfielder stinks, but also doesn't really surprise me. Frankly, I'm glad they didn't saddle themselves to any of the outfielders that were available for big money. Sure a one-year deal for someone just to have, even if it ended up going south, would have sent a nice "win now" message to everyone, and there's something to be said for doing that, but I haven't been confident that most of the free agents available would actually turn in better results than who they already have when it was all said and done. They know better than I do, for sure, what their current batch has been doing in the off-season, and if they feel more confident in what they have than in what was available, I'm willing to trust them at this point. Maybe they're keeping a wait-and-see attitude for spring training to see if Melendez has figured something out, or if one of the AAAA guys has taken a surprise step, and if they haven't, then they'll pull the trigger on some trade or other. I'm not saying a wait-and-see attitude necessarily works out best all the time, but I think they've shown us that they have a definite line in the sand on that approach (as you pointed out with Lyles and their late season signings to fill gaps they saw that they didn't trust those same AAAA guys to fill) and aren't afraid to cut ties or make moves when that line is crossed. And I feel confident enough in their evaluation processes at this point to trust that they WILL make those changes as they feel they need to--and I like that feeling quite a bit.
The only thing I'll argue with here is your phrasing. You say they weren't able to get a better outfielder. I'll say they haven't been able to get a better outfielder yet. It may end up that way, but they're very clearly still on the hunt.
But it's a great point that they've shown a willingness to change gears and make in-season moves as well. Not getting an outfielder in the offseason doesn't mean they won't get one in June or July. The risk is that it'll be too late, but I think the roster is too solid to really be in big trouble that quickly unless there are injuries that would likely have torpedoed them anyway.
Yeah, I should have phrased that better. I don't have any doubt that they are trying to upgrade. Not just the outfield, but everywhere they think they could. But if no other teams are interested in giving them what they want for what they're willing to give, well, what can ya do? That metric is going to shift every day from here on out, too. Free agents will get more desperate, teams will realize they need help somewhere all of a sudden, or the royals may realize they need more help somewhere with an injury, or whatever. I just like that the team is in a place that they have a front office willing to make those deals when the situation presents itself, and I don't fault them a bit for not jumping on deals they think aren't great.
I just keep going back and forth on if they should make a leap and worry about the future down the road. Santander is a great example. I would have been really happy with him for 2025 and probably 2026, but there's a really good shot that the Blue Jays are hating that deal. But if it helped the Royals win a division in 2025, would we care? I honestly don't know. I just know you can't always do the smartest thing.
I agree with the idea at the Estevez signing could be followed by a trade for a bat. Could an Angel Zerpa, Carter Jensen, Hunter Renfroe for Jack McCarthy deal w the dbacks make sense? We even pay down some or lots of Renfroe $ They strengthen their pen, get a top 100-ish prospect, and they have 3 other lefty OF’s so Renfroe as a bench\RH option.
If they gave up Carter Jensen for Jake McCarthy, I'd be pretty upset. I like McCarthy enough, but he makes very little impact with his contact. He's a good defender, he can run and he can work a walk, which is great, but I would not be a fan of that trade at all.
In all the talk about what JJ and the front office have been doing, let us not forget Sherman and the ownership who has made all this happen. We've had ownership in the past who weren't quite as willing to spend the money that the current ownership has. For big time instance, can you imagine either of the two previous ownerships putting out the kind of money they did to keep Bobby Witt Jr. in KC for virtually the remainder of his career? As a side note, I still think they cheated Salvy in the amount of money they gave his long-term extension, and then adding it to the end of his then small current contract instead of just redoing the entire contract. I say, kudos to Sherman and the current ownership.
Sherman deserves a lot of credit for sure. I'd like to think that Glass (who funded what is still the largest payroll in team history) would have done the deal with Witt but we don't know. The owner before him was the trust, but Ewing Kauffman 100% would have gotten Witt signed.
On the Salvy deal, the first one was insane, but I don't think he's been underpaid at any point since. He's one of two catchers with an AAV of $20 million or more. Next closest after him is Will Smith at $14 million.
My point about Salvy is that they didn't rewrite his contract but allowed the bargain basket rate of his then current contract to run out before the new one took effect. They should have just torn up his contract and written a new one.
I wasn't here when the Royals let David Cone, Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye and Johnny Damon go; but I understand (I can't prove it) that it was because ownership didn't want to fork out the money to resign them. I don't know who the ownership was at the time. But at least Cone and Beltran ought to be in the Hall of Fame. I don't know about the others, except that they were pretty good in Kansas City.
And most of that was either in the foundation years after Ewing Kauffman’s death or the early years of David Glass when he was definitely pinching pennies.
I agree there is not much difference in the four Central contenders--you could probably pull the names out of a hat and predict the order of finish as accurately as any other way. However, and I may be remembering this wrong, didn't A.J. Hinch really lean on his bullpen down the stretch? Adding Cobb should help their rotation, but I'm not sure that approach is sustainable for a full season.
I would say leaning into the bullpen is an understatement. They threw 60 more innings in August/September out of the bullpen than the next closest team. It was Skubal and chaos. And, for sure, having Cobb and theoretically Olson and Mize healthy is big, but yeah, they can't do what they did for six months.
I actually think the Tigers might have a slight edge as things stand. If anyone can do it, Salvy can, but just don't think he will be putting up his '24 numbers this year.
I wonder what type of season does Melendez need to be considered "important"? If he hit .240 with 28 home runs, would that make him more than usable? Or does he need to hit .260 with 33 home runs to be considered a real everyday player? I am not sure he can approach either of those numbers, but he sure whacked the crude out of the ball in Omaha in 2021. I am still a fan of Melendez and hope he can put together a season that truly helps the team win this year.
I think if he’s hitting 25+ homers, you take it, but there’s more info needed there. Is he .240 with a .280 OBP? Sure the power is nice but probably not a net positive. If he’s .240 with a .330 OBP, he’s probably a 120 wRC+ guy.
What do you think is Bubic's innings cap this year? I have to assume he's limited in some capacity, which poses an issue if he opens the year in the fifth spot. That would burn a lot of his available innings early in the season and limit KC's flexibility later if there's an injury or two. I'm with you thinking their best options are A) Piggyback Bubic and Marsh/Wright/whoever or B) Bubic in the bullpen at least for the first half (or until a SP is needed).
It’s a good question. He threw about 70 total innings last year and a little more than 140 in 2022, his last healthy season. I’d guess 140 is about where they’d like to keep him, but I think it’s more likely that it’ll be based on a lot of factors. But it’s a good point that maybe you’d rather have Bubic as a starter down the stretch. On the flip side, maybe you’d love to add that sort of relief help down the stretch knowing other guys could have progressed by then to step in. I don’t know the answer.
Part of me wonders if he's limited to more like 100. Maybe that's overly conservative. He's just never had a huge workload so doubling from 70 to 140 feels like a leap. The projection systems have him at 120, so maybe that's the sweet spot?
Coming back from an injury generally doesn’t have the same restrictions as developing arms. Guys often get back to their previous levels much quicker.
Couldn’t love the idea of McArthur starting again more. Gives you an excuse to send him to AAA and buys you time to work with him. They don’t need (want..?) him in the pen to start the year. Though I know you will say no need for an excuse.
I’d love nothing more than to throw a bunch of money for one year at Flahery. Then trade Marsh/Garcia/ Ramirez (C) for the best bat you can. Who knows who that is. Then you’re the favorite in the central.
I’ve thought about Flaherty too and he’s fascinating to me. I think he’s going to need to sign the 2022 Carlos Rodon deal at this point, which every team should be in on. What I find interesting is that the Yankees didn’t like the medicals and the two teams he pitched for don’t seem to have had much interest at all in him, at least not at the numbers he was seeking earlier. Should that tell us something? Do we especially care on a one year deal?
The Chiefs making the Super Bowl every year keeps us invested in Football until Spring Training, but it makes this extra week between the AFC championship and the Super Bowl just absolutely murderous. There are two weeks all year without any sports to look forward to as a combo Chiefs/Royals fan, but the tension leading to the Super Bowl makes it far worse than the regular season bye week
This might just be the dad of a two-year-old talking, but I'm loving this week with no sports stress. On top of everything else, I don't have to hope she doesn't have a meltdown right before a 4th and 1 play because the pretzel she wants is broken or because I sat 7 inches from where she wanted me to sit. But yeah, other than that, this is a looooooooooong week.
Personally, I'm pretty OK with what they've done this offseason. I had relatively low expectations going into it, and was immediately surprised with them being willing to move on from Singer (a great sign for the organization and the front office's continued change from the old regime), but not by the Wacha signing (I figured he would stay if they gave him anything near what he wanted). I wasn't SUPER sold that India was the best option they could have gotten for Singer, but I can't see how anyone can argue that his overall value in the number of runs produced over the course of a year, with Bobby/Vinnie/Salvy following, him isn't going to vastly outweigh the number of runs given up by whoever replaces Singer in the rotation, and more runs on the average means more wins for the team.
That they weren't able to get a better outfielder stinks, but also doesn't really surprise me. Frankly, I'm glad they didn't saddle themselves to any of the outfielders that were available for big money. Sure a one-year deal for someone just to have, even if it ended up going south, would have sent a nice "win now" message to everyone, and there's something to be said for doing that, but I haven't been confident that most of the free agents available would actually turn in better results than who they already have when it was all said and done. They know better than I do, for sure, what their current batch has been doing in the off-season, and if they feel more confident in what they have than in what was available, I'm willing to trust them at this point. Maybe they're keeping a wait-and-see attitude for spring training to see if Melendez has figured something out, or if one of the AAAA guys has taken a surprise step, and if they haven't, then they'll pull the trigger on some trade or other. I'm not saying a wait-and-see attitude necessarily works out best all the time, but I think they've shown us that they have a definite line in the sand on that approach (as you pointed out with Lyles and their late season signings to fill gaps they saw that they didn't trust those same AAAA guys to fill) and aren't afraid to cut ties or make moves when that line is crossed. And I feel confident enough in their evaluation processes at this point to trust that they WILL make those changes as they feel they need to--and I like that feeling quite a bit.
The only thing I'll argue with here is your phrasing. You say they weren't able to get a better outfielder. I'll say they haven't been able to get a better outfielder yet. It may end up that way, but they're very clearly still on the hunt.
But it's a great point that they've shown a willingness to change gears and make in-season moves as well. Not getting an outfielder in the offseason doesn't mean they won't get one in June or July. The risk is that it'll be too late, but I think the roster is too solid to really be in big trouble that quickly unless there are injuries that would likely have torpedoed them anyway.
Yeah, I should have phrased that better. I don't have any doubt that they are trying to upgrade. Not just the outfield, but everywhere they think they could. But if no other teams are interested in giving them what they want for what they're willing to give, well, what can ya do? That metric is going to shift every day from here on out, too. Free agents will get more desperate, teams will realize they need help somewhere all of a sudden, or the royals may realize they need more help somewhere with an injury, or whatever. I just like that the team is in a place that they have a front office willing to make those deals when the situation presents itself, and I don't fault them a bit for not jumping on deals they think aren't great.
I just keep going back and forth on if they should make a leap and worry about the future down the road. Santander is a great example. I would have been really happy with him for 2025 and probably 2026, but there's a really good shot that the Blue Jays are hating that deal. But if it helped the Royals win a division in 2025, would we care? I honestly don't know. I just know you can't always do the smartest thing.
I agree with the idea at the Estevez signing could be followed by a trade for a bat. Could an Angel Zerpa, Carter Jensen, Hunter Renfroe for Jack McCarthy deal w the dbacks make sense? We even pay down some or lots of Renfroe $ They strengthen their pen, get a top 100-ish prospect, and they have 3 other lefty OF’s so Renfroe as a bench\RH option.
If they gave up Carter Jensen for Jake McCarthy, I'd be pretty upset. I like McCarthy enough, but he makes very little impact with his contact. He's a good defender, he can run and he can work a walk, which is great, but I would not be a fan of that trade at all.
In all the talk about what JJ and the front office have been doing, let us not forget Sherman and the ownership who has made all this happen. We've had ownership in the past who weren't quite as willing to spend the money that the current ownership has. For big time instance, can you imagine either of the two previous ownerships putting out the kind of money they did to keep Bobby Witt Jr. in KC for virtually the remainder of his career? As a side note, I still think they cheated Salvy in the amount of money they gave his long-term extension, and then adding it to the end of his then small current contract instead of just redoing the entire contract. I say, kudos to Sherman and the current ownership.
Sherman deserves a lot of credit for sure. I'd like to think that Glass (who funded what is still the largest payroll in team history) would have done the deal with Witt but we don't know. The owner before him was the trust, but Ewing Kauffman 100% would have gotten Witt signed.
On the Salvy deal, the first one was insane, but I don't think he's been underpaid at any point since. He's one of two catchers with an AAV of $20 million or more. Next closest after him is Will Smith at $14 million.
My point about Salvy is that they didn't rewrite his contract but allowed the bargain basket rate of his then current contract to run out before the new one took effect. They should have just torn up his contract and written a new one.
I wasn't here when the Royals let David Cone, Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye and Johnny Damon go; but I understand (I can't prove it) that it was because ownership didn't want to fork out the money to resign them. I don't know who the ownership was at the time. But at least Cone and Beltran ought to be in the Hall of Fame. I don't know about the others, except that they were pretty good in Kansas City.
They re-did his deal before it was over.
And most of that was either in the foundation years after Ewing Kauffman’s death or the early years of David Glass when he was definitely pinching pennies.
Some how I have read this twice and have not seen the Tiggers mentioned? What am I missing!?
The second point about comparing the Royals and Tigers. Right after them being responsible.
I agree there is not much difference in the four Central contenders--you could probably pull the names out of a hat and predict the order of finish as accurately as any other way. However, and I may be remembering this wrong, didn't A.J. Hinch really lean on his bullpen down the stretch? Adding Cobb should help their rotation, but I'm not sure that approach is sustainable for a full season.
I would say leaning into the bullpen is an understatement. They threw 60 more innings in August/September out of the bullpen than the next closest team. It was Skubal and chaos. And, for sure, having Cobb and theoretically Olson and Mize healthy is big, but yeah, they can't do what they did for six months.
I actually think the Tigers might have a slight edge as things stand. If anyone can do it, Salvy can, but just don't think he will be putting up his '24 numbers this year.
I wonder what type of season does Melendez need to be considered "important"? If he hit .240 with 28 home runs, would that make him more than usable? Or does he need to hit .260 with 33 home runs to be considered a real everyday player? I am not sure he can approach either of those numbers, but he sure whacked the crude out of the ball in Omaha in 2021. I am still a fan of Melendez and hope he can put together a season that truly helps the team win this year.
I think if he’s hitting 25+ homers, you take it, but there’s more info needed there. Is he .240 with a .280 OBP? Sure the power is nice but probably not a net positive. If he’s .240 with a .330 OBP, he’s probably a 120 wRC+ guy.