This team is extremely unlikely to make a franchise-changing acquisition via trade or free agency, so your approach in looking to the minor leagues for hope is undoubtedly the correct one. Where else could one possibly look?
As for me, starting in 1969 I spent 40 years doing exactly that but by the end of the 2008 season I just couldn't do it anymore. I had seen so many highly touted and "can't miss" prospects flame out that since '08 I just have trouble getting interested in anything going on in the minor leagues. Especially now that the gap between AAA and MLB is bigger than ever. I view all minor league numbers, no matter how impressive, as smoke and mirrors unless and until somebody produces at the MLB level.
Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, not at all! I'm just saying that based on my experiences I can't go there with you.
Just for fun, try Googling Frank Ortenzio. He should probably be the poster child for these kinds of disappointments and failures, even more than Kila Ka'aihue should. At Omaha Ortenzio was Babe Ruth. In the big leagues he was phhhhht. And he was just the first of far too many.
Frank Ortenzio is actually a really interesting name because if he had been around 35-40 years later, he would have likely had a long big league career. I didn't remember the exact situation, so I looked him up (I don't just *know* all of these numbers), but the guy only got 27 plate appearances and was actually pretty darn good in those. He was 22% above average offensively. Obviously not even big enough to be a small sample, but it was in line with his minor league numbers. Unfortunately, he played first base, the Royals had John Mayberry and teams weren't quite so ready to pick up someone who didn't work elsewhere.
What I recall about Ortenzio is that he was touted as the heir apparent to Mayberry, and a guy who would (theoretically) be even better than Big John was. I also recall that he soon wasn't considered good enough to be a starting 1B or DH at the MLB level, not by the Royals or by anybody else.
Of course by 1973-74-75 many Royals fans (including me!) had had their skepticism level raised significantly by the whole Clint Hurdle fiasco.
I think it's also interesting that two Royals minor leaguers who became cornerstones of the franchise, George Brett and Frank White, didn't consistently hit well at all in the minor leagues, although George did better than Frank.
I obviously wasn't around then, but I don't think the Royals were looking to replace a 24-year old established big leaguer on an up-and-coming team. And Hurdle wasn't even drafted until 1975 and didn't become a "bust" until much later. Even then, I think Hurdle was another victim of the time. I doubt he'd have been called up as early as he was if he was drafted 20 or 30 years later. But even with that, he was actually above average offensively with the Royals.
And to be fair about Frank White, he also didn't hit well in the big leagues. But I also think there's a drastic underselling by you of prospects historically. It's very easy to say that you view "all minor league numbers as smoke and mirrors" but even on the team you're watching every day, they've got three guys who came up through the system hitting well (Salvy, Vinnie and Pratto). Look at 2011 when Hosmer, Gordon, Butler and a month and a half of Salvy lived up to expectations. It's so easy to see the failures and forget there are plenty of successes. Their hit rate is probably too low, but that shouldn't discount the ones who actually do succeed.
You're right, that Hurdle thing happened two or three years later than I thought it had. When he was on the cover of SI they labeled him "the next Mickey Mantle" based on sources within the Royals. I think they may have oversold him just a bit.
And obviously George was a better hitter than Frank but you may be underselling Frank just a bit. He struggled mightily at first but eventually turned himself into a fairly potent offensive weapon. It's not every 2B who bats cleanup in the world series, at a time when batting cleanup meant more than it does now.
As for the young guys you think I'm underselling now: certainly the early returns are mostly positive but I'm not ready to label any of them as long-term cornerstones of the franchise. Certainly Salvy has been that but I don't recall seeing him in any playoff games over the past several years.
This is a generally pretty unpopular opinion, but Frank White played 18 years and was a genuinely bad hitter in 13 of them. He had his moments and, yeah, hit cleanup in the World Series, but I don't think that's as big of a deal as you do.
I do think Sherman reaches into the pockets this year to find a decent FA pitcher and a maybe FA pitcher. Agree he kinda has to for stadium sake, but I think he kind of had to anyways if wanting to get any fan support in general going forward. I would like to think they were sifting through the pieces to see what exactly they had, but think they had a pretty good idea not much-they should be sure of it now.
I am feeling pretty confident they can identify some pitching potential after turning Chapman around. I was worried he might turn the clubhouse, but maybe the clubhouse turned him? (hopefully into a better human being)
I am starting to come around to the idea of maybe trading MJ (as a fan I just like him) if he improves offensively enough to get a decent return. He is one of the theoretical pieces that might make sense to trade. Still can't emotionally let the Pasquatch go, but it might make sense? but less sure on this as we need some hitting. Definitely don't see them trading Salvy (as you have enumerated not much of a return with that $$contract) not only for numbers, but also sometimes the heart of a captain is a good thing to hold on to- he sure seems to keep the kids engaged and even gets Chapman smiling. Also would be shocked if they traded bwj, still think he will be one of the best ss in the league. If he keeps improving , which I think he will, he will at the very least be worth more next year.
No fan really wants to hear it…but they have to trade someone. We haven’t really moved someone for years now and it’s the same results. David has said for a while and I 100% agree that this roster doesn’t work. The problem is that we are now waiting to “see” if they can increase their value instead of moving them when we should have. And I have no problem keeping them…but you knew you had Salvy at catcher. You knew you had Vinny AND Pratto as first basemen coming up at the same time. It’s not just moving people to move people….but you had so much redundancy. They can absolutely be wrong in who they trade but you are also wrong in not trading as you are seeing now. As the GM that’s your job though. Unfortunately I don’t think anyone should be off the table. If you can move Vinny and shore up two spots with big time prospects….You are potentially covering 3 positions with Pratto at first and x and y wherever. That’s how you can get better faster. It would suck…I’m not calling for it….but Vinny and Witt Jr have to be at least talked about if you can get a big return. This team is going to lose 100 games with them on the roster anyway.
I don’t actually think anyone knew they had Vinnie and Pratto at the same time. At least not with the lead time to think one needed to be moved. Vinnie was a 23-year old in high-A as recently as less than two years ago. He hit well but that’s still not necessarily a sure thing or a player with real value. Pratto was just in the middle of coming back from losing all of his value.
They do need to shop players, but I don’t think it’s fair to say they had redundancy and they knew it. A lot of this redundancy came together quickly and once it did, got a little murky. They need to fix it now, but I also don’t think they’d have been very successful had they been preemptive in that.
Ok, I’ll give you the first baseman redundancy if it came on that fast….I’d like to think your guys in the lower levels should be able to see Vinny can mash and be relaying that info but I’ll give you that one…but you’ll have to give me the catcher redundancy cause they absolutely knew that one. Melendez was the minor league home run champ two years ago in AA. Salvy wasn’t/hasn’t gone anywhere.
But how many bat first guys at that age in high-A become nothing? I don’t think that’s ANYTHING to be upset about. But with all of these “redundancies” the other thing to remember is that they didn’t play in 2020 and not a single player we’re talking about other than Witt was even considered a prospect anymore after 2019. It’s so easy to say trade him and trade him, but I guarantee you the value wasn’t even there after they figured it out in 2021. Plus, with Pratto/Vinnie, fine me a first base prospect traded as the centerpiece of a deal who brought back much. I’m not saying the deals weren’t there. I’m saying I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they weren’t.
Yeah, I’m not saying it’s JJ’s fault or anything. I don’t know if the deals were there. I’m just personally ready for that piece to be resolved. We’ve been talking about the roster not working for two years now it seems like. There has most likely not been anything out worth doing. I’m just personally to the point of come on now. I know they don’t run on Joel time though otherwise we’d be hanging flags again. It’s more a reflection of hearing people say I dont want to trade x, y, or z when I’m thinking dear got trade a couple main pieces off because it doesn’t work. I just want us to be more like the Rays. And while you’ve pointed out we are using openers at close to the same rate, and injuring our starting pitchers at close to the same rate…I’m waiting for the positive things to follow. Sounds like some could be happening in the minors. And, I don’t mind the openers cause I’m intrigued by Hernandez as opener….injuries I could probably do without but I’ll celebrate anyway we are like the Rays….so win some lose some I guess.
I think you’ll see them make moves, but I just think it’s really important to keep in mind that making moves just to make moves isn’t the answer. I can PROMISE you that if they got a call for MJ right now that was worth a move, he’d be playing for another team by Monday. It’ll happen and I know it’s hard to preach patience when they haven’t even sniffed .500 in six years, but as I’ve said so many times, the past is the past and you can’t change that now.
Ok fine. You are right about 1st base. I just did a little googling…closest I could find on a first baseman traded as a centerpiece. Mark texiera……and I think we can all agree that is probably a bit of a different level here. Fun fact, there are only 4 first baseman on the top 100 lists right now and at least two of those players have been moved off other positions (catcher and third). I did not know, Matt Mervis, out of the cubs organization, is already 25 but was an unrestricted free agent in 2020. Now he’s only 88 on the list but still an interesting story. This is re-inforcing that first base prospects aren’t that big a deal and yes, they aren’t going to get much back. Good thing the Royals have one good one….One that could be good…and two catchers that should probably play that position..yippie….
I mean you still want someone good there. And Tex wasn’t traded as a prospect either. I also wonder some if the Royals ever actually thought MJ could catch at the big league level. They were always high on someone else defensively. Could be they were trying to sell him as a catcher and just couldn’t do it.
This team is extremely unlikely to make a franchise-changing acquisition via trade or free agency, so your approach in looking to the minor leagues for hope is undoubtedly the correct one. Where else could one possibly look?
As for me, starting in 1969 I spent 40 years doing exactly that but by the end of the 2008 season I just couldn't do it anymore. I had seen so many highly touted and "can't miss" prospects flame out that since '08 I just have trouble getting interested in anything going on in the minor leagues. Especially now that the gap between AAA and MLB is bigger than ever. I view all minor league numbers, no matter how impressive, as smoke and mirrors unless and until somebody produces at the MLB level.
Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, not at all! I'm just saying that based on my experiences I can't go there with you.
Just for fun, try Googling Frank Ortenzio. He should probably be the poster child for these kinds of disappointments and failures, even more than Kila Ka'aihue should. At Omaha Ortenzio was Babe Ruth. In the big leagues he was phhhhht. And he was just the first of far too many.
Frank Ortenzio is actually a really interesting name because if he had been around 35-40 years later, he would have likely had a long big league career. I didn't remember the exact situation, so I looked him up (I don't just *know* all of these numbers), but the guy only got 27 plate appearances and was actually pretty darn good in those. He was 22% above average offensively. Obviously not even big enough to be a small sample, but it was in line with his minor league numbers. Unfortunately, he played first base, the Royals had John Mayberry and teams weren't quite so ready to pick up someone who didn't work elsewhere.
What I recall about Ortenzio is that he was touted as the heir apparent to Mayberry, and a guy who would (theoretically) be even better than Big John was. I also recall that he soon wasn't considered good enough to be a starting 1B or DH at the MLB level, not by the Royals or by anybody else.
Of course by 1973-74-75 many Royals fans (including me!) had had their skepticism level raised significantly by the whole Clint Hurdle fiasco.
I think it's also interesting that two Royals minor leaguers who became cornerstones of the franchise, George Brett and Frank White, didn't consistently hit well at all in the minor leagues, although George did better than Frank.
I obviously wasn't around then, but I don't think the Royals were looking to replace a 24-year old established big leaguer on an up-and-coming team. And Hurdle wasn't even drafted until 1975 and didn't become a "bust" until much later. Even then, I think Hurdle was another victim of the time. I doubt he'd have been called up as early as he was if he was drafted 20 or 30 years later. But even with that, he was actually above average offensively with the Royals.
And to be fair about Frank White, he also didn't hit well in the big leagues. But I also think there's a drastic underselling by you of prospects historically. It's very easy to say that you view "all minor league numbers as smoke and mirrors" but even on the team you're watching every day, they've got three guys who came up through the system hitting well (Salvy, Vinnie and Pratto). Look at 2011 when Hosmer, Gordon, Butler and a month and a half of Salvy lived up to expectations. It's so easy to see the failures and forget there are plenty of successes. Their hit rate is probably too low, but that shouldn't discount the ones who actually do succeed.
You're right, that Hurdle thing happened two or three years later than I thought it had. When he was on the cover of SI they labeled him "the next Mickey Mantle" based on sources within the Royals. I think they may have oversold him just a bit.
And obviously George was a better hitter than Frank but you may be underselling Frank just a bit. He struggled mightily at first but eventually turned himself into a fairly potent offensive weapon. It's not every 2B who bats cleanup in the world series, at a time when batting cleanup meant more than it does now.
As for the young guys you think I'm underselling now: certainly the early returns are mostly positive but I'm not ready to label any of them as long-term cornerstones of the franchise. Certainly Salvy has been that but I don't recall seeing him in any playoff games over the past several years.
This is a generally pretty unpopular opinion, but Frank White played 18 years and was a genuinely bad hitter in 13 of them. He had his moments and, yeah, hit cleanup in the World Series, but I don't think that's as big of a deal as you do.
These days it's not. Back then it was.
And I totally agree with you that he had more bad offensive seasons than good ones.
You are quite the prognosticator, just saw Anthony V to Omaha and Noah C to NW Arkansas.
Sometimes things are obvious enough that even a boob like me gets them right!
I do think Sherman reaches into the pockets this year to find a decent FA pitcher and a maybe FA pitcher. Agree he kinda has to for stadium sake, but I think he kind of had to anyways if wanting to get any fan support in general going forward. I would like to think they were sifting through the pieces to see what exactly they had, but think they had a pretty good idea not much-they should be sure of it now.
I am feeling pretty confident they can identify some pitching potential after turning Chapman around. I was worried he might turn the clubhouse, but maybe the clubhouse turned him? (hopefully into a better human being)
I am starting to come around to the idea of maybe trading MJ (as a fan I just like him) if he improves offensively enough to get a decent return. He is one of the theoretical pieces that might make sense to trade. Still can't emotionally let the Pasquatch go, but it might make sense? but less sure on this as we need some hitting. Definitely don't see them trading Salvy (as you have enumerated not much of a return with that $$contract) not only for numbers, but also sometimes the heart of a captain is a good thing to hold on to- he sure seems to keep the kids engaged and even gets Chapman smiling. Also would be shocked if they traded bwj, still think he will be one of the best ss in the league. If he keeps improving , which I think he will, he will at the very least be worth more next year.
No fan really wants to hear it…but they have to trade someone. We haven’t really moved someone for years now and it’s the same results. David has said for a while and I 100% agree that this roster doesn’t work. The problem is that we are now waiting to “see” if they can increase their value instead of moving them when we should have. And I have no problem keeping them…but you knew you had Salvy at catcher. You knew you had Vinny AND Pratto as first basemen coming up at the same time. It’s not just moving people to move people….but you had so much redundancy. They can absolutely be wrong in who they trade but you are also wrong in not trading as you are seeing now. As the GM that’s your job though. Unfortunately I don’t think anyone should be off the table. If you can move Vinny and shore up two spots with big time prospects….You are potentially covering 3 positions with Pratto at first and x and y wherever. That’s how you can get better faster. It would suck…I’m not calling for it….but Vinny and Witt Jr have to be at least talked about if you can get a big return. This team is going to lose 100 games with them on the roster anyway.
I don’t actually think anyone knew they had Vinnie and Pratto at the same time. At least not with the lead time to think one needed to be moved. Vinnie was a 23-year old in high-A as recently as less than two years ago. He hit well but that’s still not necessarily a sure thing or a player with real value. Pratto was just in the middle of coming back from losing all of his value.
They do need to shop players, but I don’t think it’s fair to say they had redundancy and they knew it. A lot of this redundancy came together quickly and once it did, got a little murky. They need to fix it now, but I also don’t think they’d have been very successful had they been preemptive in that.
Ok, I’ll give you the first baseman redundancy if it came on that fast….I’d like to think your guys in the lower levels should be able to see Vinny can mash and be relaying that info but I’ll give you that one…but you’ll have to give me the catcher redundancy cause they absolutely knew that one. Melendez was the minor league home run champ two years ago in AA. Salvy wasn’t/hasn’t gone anywhere.
But how many bat first guys at that age in high-A become nothing? I don’t think that’s ANYTHING to be upset about. But with all of these “redundancies” the other thing to remember is that they didn’t play in 2020 and not a single player we’re talking about other than Witt was even considered a prospect anymore after 2019. It’s so easy to say trade him and trade him, but I guarantee you the value wasn’t even there after they figured it out in 2021. Plus, with Pratto/Vinnie, fine me a first base prospect traded as the centerpiece of a deal who brought back much. I’m not saying the deals weren’t there. I’m saying I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they weren’t.
Yeah, I’m not saying it’s JJ’s fault or anything. I don’t know if the deals were there. I’m just personally ready for that piece to be resolved. We’ve been talking about the roster not working for two years now it seems like. There has most likely not been anything out worth doing. I’m just personally to the point of come on now. I know they don’t run on Joel time though otherwise we’d be hanging flags again. It’s more a reflection of hearing people say I dont want to trade x, y, or z when I’m thinking dear got trade a couple main pieces off because it doesn’t work. I just want us to be more like the Rays. And while you’ve pointed out we are using openers at close to the same rate, and injuring our starting pitchers at close to the same rate…I’m waiting for the positive things to follow. Sounds like some could be happening in the minors. And, I don’t mind the openers cause I’m intrigued by Hernandez as opener….injuries I could probably do without but I’ll celebrate anyway we are like the Rays….so win some lose some I guess.
I think you’ll see them make moves, but I just think it’s really important to keep in mind that making moves just to make moves isn’t the answer. I can PROMISE you that if they got a call for MJ right now that was worth a move, he’d be playing for another team by Monday. It’ll happen and I know it’s hard to preach patience when they haven’t even sniffed .500 in six years, but as I’ve said so many times, the past is the past and you can’t change that now.
Ok fine. You are right about 1st base. I just did a little googling…closest I could find on a first baseman traded as a centerpiece. Mark texiera……and I think we can all agree that is probably a bit of a different level here. Fun fact, there are only 4 first baseman on the top 100 lists right now and at least two of those players have been moved off other positions (catcher and third). I did not know, Matt Mervis, out of the cubs organization, is already 25 but was an unrestricted free agent in 2020. Now he’s only 88 on the list but still an interesting story. This is re-inforcing that first base prospects aren’t that big a deal and yes, they aren’t going to get much back. Good thing the Royals have one good one….One that could be good…and two catchers that should probably play that position..yippie….
I mean you still want someone good there. And Tex wasn’t traded as a prospect either. I also wonder some if the Royals ever actually thought MJ could catch at the big league level. They were always high on someone else defensively. Could be they were trying to sell him as a catcher and just couldn’t do it.