Crown Jewels: Internal Rotation Options, a Royals AFL Update and My (Hypothetical) Award Votes

It's a Free Friday, and I'll dig into what the Royals have internally for their rotation, how the AFL-goers are doing and how I'd have voted for awards.

With the World Series now over and the Dodgers winning their first title in a full season in 36 years, the rest of the baseball world matters again. Things get going really quickly now that the playing is actually done. There are GM meetings next week, which often have a rippling effect on the offseason. Technically, players are free agents already after the series ended, but they aren’t free to sign with new teams until early next week. That’s when players and teams decide on their options. But trades can happen again right now. They may not for a bit, but they can. Then, on November 22, teams have to decide who they will non-tender from their 40-man roster and who they will add.

The winter meetings don’t start until the second week of December, and that’s when so much happens. I may be there this year, which has long been a dream of mine. But the point is that action off the field can start anytime. I will remind everyone of how slow the offseason can be. There will be spurts of this or that, but markets can take a bit to set. I remember last season that I was pretty confident the Royals would spend some money, and when they didn’t sign anyone for a couple of weeks after they were able, people questioned me. Then, they seemed to sign a new free agent every few days. This is just the pace of the offseason now. Be patient, but there will be plenty to discuss in the coming weeks and months until the season starts in 146 days.

If you missed this week’s newsletters:

The Three Options the Royals Have with Brady Singer

JJ For a Day: Who Stays and Who Goes?

Internal Rotation Options

I’ve already written a lot about how I believe the Royals need to continue to add to the rotation, and I stand by that assertion. Even if they do bring Wacha back, as I expect they will, and keep Singer, you just can’t trust a rotation to stay as healthy as the 2024 version did. I can’t predict who will get hurt, but I think I’d be making a safe bet by saying someone will miss more than two or three starts, which is all we really saw from any of the main five this past season.

But as much as I believe they will spend some money this winter, I also think it’s possible that a rotation piece that’s actually a true upgrade doesn’t fit within the budget when it’s all said and done. And if that’s the case, the Royals are going to have to turn to their options who are already in the organization. I want to run through those options here today as we set up for a lot of free agent and trade speculation over the next few weeks.

There are a good number of players with big league experience who I expect will at least open camp as starting pitchers. Those include Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright. I get the sense that Jonathan Bowlan is in the bullpen now, but I could see him coming to camp stretched out too. But those four (and maybe a fifth) will be in camp stretched out for multiple innings at the start. I’ve said this before, but I just have a hunch we’ve seen the last of Bubic as a starter. Lynch I’m not completely sold on him as a reliever forever because I think they see him as a multi-inning weapon and that can lead to some starts.

Everyone talks about Wright, as they should. It was a great move to get him last year on the cheap and rehab with the team. If he can be even like 80 percent of what he was in 2022 when he threw 180.1 innings with a 3.19 ERA and finished 10th in the Cy Young voting, the Royals have a legitimate mid-rotation starter. The problem with Wright is that he hasn’t pitched since the end of 2023 and he was terrible then. In fact, he’s been terrible in his entire career other than 2022. He has a 6.68 ERA in 101 innings with a 19.4 percent strikeout rate and a 13.6 percent walk rate. I’ll reiterate that I love the move to get him, but he’s no sure thing.

Nobody is talking about Marsh, but maybe they should. The steps he took from an uneven but mostly bad rookie season to 2024 were huge. He lowered his ERA by more than a full run. He lowered his walk rate by 4.3 percent. His FIP dropped by 1.36. His xERA dropped by 0.95. He was perfectly fine for a number five starter, but you still want better from him, especially when you consider he had a 5.52 ERA in his last 62 innings following his amazing start against the Yankees in June. But I’d still like to see how he continues to develop given the huge strides we saw in 2024.

The other options are going to come from organizational depth. Noah Cameron is going to be the most popular name because of the way he finished the year in AAA. He’ll definitely be in camp, but I think the Royals would like to get him a little more time in the minors. If they believe he can be a legitimate big league starter, though, it might be an argument to stay internal and not block that path with a veteran. I still side with depth, but I get the argument to just keep the spot warm for Cameron. Additionally, I’d expect we see Chandler Champlain and Luinder Avila (if he’s not selected in the Rule 5) in camp getting big league starter innings.

I’ll be very curious to see how they handle Steven Zobac. He kind of fell off my radar a bit with a good enough performance in high-A but not great. But then I was able to talk to a scout who saw Zobac who thinks he could pitch in the big leagues today. Okay, probably not today since there are no games, but next season. I’m not sure he’s a starter, but I’m not sure he isn’t either. I think he’ll get an invite and maybe could surprise.

Regardless, they have some internal candidates that I don’t want to forget about as I spend the entire offseason talking about signing Yusei Kikuchi or Sean Manaea to fill out the best rotation in the American League.

Arizona Fall League Update

The Arizona Fall League isn’t quite the prospect extravaganza it once was, but there are still some big-time prospects down there every single year. This year, the Royals sent a few guys who wouldn’t qualify as noteworthy, but a few who are. Here’s their roster of players:

• Luinder Avila, RHP

• Jac Caglianone, 1B

• Carter Jensen, C

• Brandon Johnson, RHP

• Chazz Martinez, LHP

• Shane Panzini, RHP

• Anthony Simonelli, RHP

• Brett Squires, 1B

• Daniel Vazquez, SS

Sometimes I get so frustrated at my alphabetical order ways, but this time it worked out because the three biggest prospects there for the Royals are right at the top. Avila is interesting to me because he’s pitched well enough with 12 strikeouts in 11.2 innings, but he’s getting rave reviews for his slider, which has one of the highest spin rates on breaking balls in the entire league. I knew he had a good slider, but I didn’t know it could break quite as much as it has (2,832 rpm). I still tend to believe they don’t protect him in the Rule 5, but I went from thinking it was 70/30 to like 55/45.

The two biggest names, though, are Caglianone and Jensen, and those are the two I want to spend a lot of time on today. I think it’s important to remember that the sample is impossibly small. For example, Caglianone had a monster day yesterday with three hits, including two home runs. He hit a ball harder than Bobby Witt Jr. has ever hit a ball. It was a great day. He raised his OPS more than 100 points. I don’t care how good of a day it was. You know the sample is small when that’s happening. He’s now hitting .258/.299/.452 with a very reasonable 20.9 percent strikeout rate.

Keith Law saw him a couple of weeks ago and noted that he looked worn down. That wouldn’t surprise me in the least. He went from 319 plate appearances (and about 75 innings pitched) to adding nearly 200 plate appearances to all of that. He started his season way back in February and is still playing into November. I commend him for that, but I don’t care how young and how in-shape you are, that’s a long season.

The real star, though, has been Jensen. He hasn’t played quite as much, but he holds the fourth-highest OPS of any hitter in the league with at least 20 plate appearances. He has six walks and six strikeouts. He has four homers in 34 plate appearances. It’s a very impressive showing. I have a scout friend who has seen Jensen for the last two years and saw him last week in the AFL and said the growth he’s seen from him as a hitter is remarkable. He went from saying he had maybe a 10 percent chance to be a big leaguer to now saying he could probably hit in the middle of a lineup by mid-season 2025. I think that’s a bit aggressive, but good to know.

This is a better discussion for another day, but the question will be his position. I’m not sure where he’s best suited if he’s not behind the plate and I’m not sure he’ll stay behind the plate with Blake Mitchell right behind him. Though his defense behind the plate is a lot better than I thought it was, so maybe he’s the one who stays at catcher and Mitchell is the one who shifts to a corner. Either way, it’s really nice to see.

It hasn’t been as positive for Squires or Vazquez, and Squires is getting a lot of playing time. He has struck out 20 times in 61 plate appearances. Among pitchers, Panzini has been really disappointing. I thought the fastball would develop and he’d become a strikeout artist. He still could, but seven strikeouts in 9.2 innings is a disappointment. Johnson has gotten some strikeouts and limited walks while Simonelli has looked good and Martinez hasn’t really. those last few are guys we only somewhat pay attention to, but good to see them getting some reps against higher competition.

How I’d Vote

Awards season is also going to be upon us. We’ve already seen Gold Glove finalists announced, and four Royals were on that list - Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans at pitcher, Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop and Freddy Fermin at catcher. Those winners will be announced on Sunday evening at 7:30pm central. We’ll find out the finalists for the major awards in the next few days and they’ll be announced starting on November 18 with the Rookies of the Year, then the next day will be Managers of the Year followed by Cy Youngs on the 20th and MVPs on the 21st. I thought it would be fun to share how I’d vote.

Here’s how voters fill out their ballots for the awards:

• Rookie of the Year: Top 3

• Manager of the Year: Top 3

• Cy Young: Top 5

• MVP: Top 10

And here’s how I’d vote:

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Colton Cowser, Orioles

2. Mason Miller, A’s

3. Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Paul Skenes. Pirates

2. Jackson Merrill, Padres

3. Jackson Chourio, Brewers

AL Manager of the Year

1. Matt Quatraro, Royals

2. Steven Vogt, Guardians

3. AJ Hinch, Tigers

NL Manager of the Year

1. Pat Murphy, Brewers

2. Mike Schildt, Padres

3. Carlos Mendoza, Mets

AL Cy Young

1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers

2. Cole Ragans, Royals

3. Seth Lugo, Royals

4. Corbin Burnes, Orioles

5. Logan Gilbert, Mariners

NL Cy Young

1. Chris Sale, Braves

2. Zach Wheeler, Phillies

3. Michael King, Padres

4. Shota Imanaga, Cubs

5. Logan Webb, Giants

AL MVP

1. Aaron Judge, Yankees

2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals

3. Juan Soto, Yankees

4. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles

5. Jose Ramirez, Guardians

6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays

7. Tarik Skubal, Tigers

8. Yordan Alvarez, Astros

9. Jarren Duran, Red Sox

10. Brent Rooker, A’s

NL MVP

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

2. Francisco Lindor, Mets

3. William Contreras, Brewers

4. Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks

5. Elly De La Cruz, Reds

6. Jackson Merrill, Padres

7. Willy Adames, Brewers

8. Mookie Betts, Dodgers

9. Marcell Ozuna, Braves

10. Chris Sale, Braves

I will say that I’m really comfortable with my top two or three in all of these sections, and if I actually had a vote, they might be a bit different because I’d agonize over the choices, but this is what I came up with a bit of thought to share on. I think there are probably 10-12