Crown Jewels: Rotation Creativity, Final Roster Spots and What to Look For on ItC

We've almost made it to the promised land.

It has been 170 days since the Royals finished their season with a thud and started their offseason with a bang. In that time, they’ve hired a new manager, new pitching coach, new director of pitching strategy, new bench coach, new infield coach and new bullpen coach. Heck, I went from not having a kid to having a kid. Things have changed around these parts. And now we’re six days away from seeing how it all plays out. Okay, the baby part I know. It won’t impact that team, but the rest absolutely does and will. The Royals on the field will probably look a lot like they did at the end of last season on most nights, but it’ll be very interesting to see what impact we get from the changes off the field.

I think the impact of a coaching staff can be overrated, but I also believe that the impact isn’t nothing, especially when you think about the negative impact a group can have. I tweeted this on Tuesday night when the Royals were on television, but when you hear these interviews with pitchers in-game, they just sound happy and excited. I don’t remember that in the past.

You all know my thoughts on Cal Eldred (and you all probably share them too), but I wonder if he was hurting even more than we realized at the time. And I keep going back to the idea that moving on from him and Mike Matheny is worth 10 wins from the person I spoke with back in December. I think there’s less of an edge than ever before for teams in the dugout because just about everyone thinks analytically and the edge that teams like the A’s used to have doesn’t exist. But the Royals may not have caught up until this year, so maybe we see a jump where they close the gap in the dugout. I don’t know, but I’m excited to find out.

I’m also very excited and thankful and, honestly, humbled by the support you all have shown since I opened up paid subscriptions. If you missed it last week, there is an option for that now. All paid subscribers will be able to post comments (everyone can still post them through Opening Day) and will also be eligible for giveaways, such as the Opening Day tickets I’m giving away with a parking pass! Also, there’ll be some great work designed by my talented wife and maybe a few other fun things along the way. But you have to be a paid subscriber to be eligible. And I’m offering 25% off through the end of the first weekend of the season!

Creativity May Be Required in the Rotation

I’ve written about the lack of depth in the Royals rotation twice already this week, and now here we are a third time. A lot of it is because of the results of what happened yesterday against the Padres in Peoria. Brady Singer returned to the Royals with three innings where he looked pretty darn good. But it was also three innings. On March 23. Seven days before the season. Singer was their best pitcher in 2022 and figures to be the same in 2023. And he was stretched out enough to go three innings.

His usage, or lack thereof, in the WBC caused that. I mentioned that on Twitter the other day and there were some mixed responses.

David Lesky @DBLesky

Bobby Witt Jr. has batted three times in the WBC and Brady Singer has thrown two innings. It’s an incredible experience for them, but I can’t imagine the #Royals are thrilled about the lack of work.

First of all, it’s Twitter, so overreacting is what people do there. So knowing that, I do want to double down on what I said because what I said shouldn’t be polarizing at all. I’m not worried about Witt being ready for Opening Day. He can go to the back fields, get live at bats all morning and then get three or four more in big league games and be as ready to go as anyone. I wish he had gotten in there more, but I think the experience was really good for him. I am, however, worried about how ready Singer is going to be now, though maybe slightly less than I was before yesterday.

Before leaving camp for the WBC, he threw 4.2 innings. They were very good innings, but they were 4.2 of them. He threw the two in the WBC and then yesterday pitched in the big league game and was scheduled to go three innings and/or 45 pitches. While it seems weird that nine additional pitches are that important, I think it does potentially set him up to throw 70-75 on Tuesday and then be ready for the third game of the season on a more manageable pitch count than I was expecting. Still, it will be difficult for him to be fully stretched out for that first and maybe second start of the year. Is it a big deal in the long run? No. But I doubt the Royals are happy with it.

And then he was replaced by Daniel Lynch, who has had an interesting spring. He’s built up, leading the team in innings this spring, but he just hasn’t been what the Royals were hoping. The swing and miss hasn’t been there like they’d hoped and when I’ve talked to scouts, they all say they see how he could get to the top of the rotation arm the Royals believe he is, but they’re just not seeing it in him right now. And then he left the mound with an injury in his third inning of work in a game where he was finally getting some of that swing and miss. Afterward, Anne Rogers reported it was a shoulder issue.

Anne Rogers @anne__rogers

Daniel Lynch left the game with left shoulder discomfort. He'll have tests done to determine what it is and what's next, Matt Quatraro said: "Didn’t feel right. But who knows. Sometimes they get in there and test it and it’s not as bad as you think. But definitely some concern.”

That’s not good. I think there’s an argument to be made that Kris Bubic has been better than Lynch this spring, but he’s another pitcher who isn’t built up. He’s thrown 6.2 inning because he started camp late after dealing with some soreness early on. So let’s say Lynch can’t go to start the year. The Royals are now left with three pitchers - Zack Greinke, Brad Keller and Jordan Lyles - who are built up to pitch a starter’s workload.

Edit: The news is back on Lynch and it’s not bad, but it will keep him off the Opening Day roster. He’ll throw again in a week or so and see where he is then.

I think Singer may have potentially been a candidate to be left behind for a few days to get an extra start in, but whatever possibility that was is now gone. He has to be there. Where would they turn for the fifth starter? Is it Bubic on a pitch count? He may be able to throw 75 or so by the time it’s his turn. Or there is some creativity possible. Rogers spoke with Sweeney this week and he mentioned the possibility of piggybacking. I wonder a little if they’d look into an opener to start the year.

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They kind of have the perfect bullpen to do it, especially with a guy like Bubic or an old Rays favorite, Ryan Yarbrough, as the bulk innings pitcher. They could start the game with Josh Staumont or Carlos Hernandez and then turn things over to Bubic. Get Bubic through the fifth or sixth and you’re still requiring four or five relief innings but you’re at least maximizing them. I also wonder if maybe Jackson Kowar isn’t someone who gets a reprieve from being optioned as a bulk guy. In that case, you can go with Richard Lovelady or Amir Garrett as an opener and then switch sides to bring in Kowar as a righty. It’s interesting and I think they’re going to have to be creative as pitchers continue to get built up.

Roster Conundrums

The Royals final roster spots are really interesting to me because almost all of them appear set to go to guys who are not currently on the 40-man roster. After Freddy Fermin, Maikel Garcia and Nick Pratto were optioned, it’s pretty clear that at least two of Matt Beaty, Jackie Bradley Jr., Matt Duffy and Franmil Reyes are making the Opening Day roster and it could potentially be all four of them if there are surprises. There are also two relievers - Ryan Weiss and Nick Wittgren - pitching well enough to make the roster and Mike Mayers may be needed as starter depth to begin the season. That’s seven potential non-roster invites who could make the team.

But the problem is that the Royals’ 40-man roster is full. Two of the spots are easy. Jake Brentz, who was signed to a big league deal last week, can go on the 60-day IL. I can’t imagine he pitches in 2023, but if he does, it won’t be until the end of the year. And Diego Hernandez, who got hurt early in spring games, should be an easy move to the 60-day IL. So that brings the roster down to 38 since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against the 40-man roster. But it’s harder than you think to find more spots.

I’ve had Collin Snider on the chopping block for, well, ever. But he’s been so good this spring that it’s almost hard to keep him off the Opening Day roster. The Royals already have an unbalanced 40-man with 24 pitchers and 16 position players, meaning it likely wouldn’t be a position player moved off the roster (and also, I have no idea who they’d move), so you’re only looking at pitchers. Going down the list, the names get more difficult to move on from. Max Castillo, I guess, could be a possibility, but I think the Royals like what he can do and believe he can help the team this year.

Anyone else but one name doesn’t stand out as someone who could go outside of a trade, which is a possibility. I’ve mentioned Garrett’s name quite a few times as someone who probably makes sense to shop given the lefty bullpen talent this team has already. I suppose Josh Taylor is another option to flip. But the DFA name that I keep coming back to is one who has made 24 starts for the Royals the last two years. It’s Jonathan Heasley. I’ve never bought it on him, but he’s been so bad this spring - 9.1 IP, 23 H, 17.36 ERA - that maybe he’s the guy to make room.

But the crazy thing is that now there’s room for one more. And there were seven potential big league additions above. So while it’s easy to say that all these non-roster invites have a path to the big club, it’s kind of hard to find the space for them on the roster. It should make for a pretty fascinating next few days if you’re a roster nerd like I am.

What’s Ahead

As we head into those final few days before the season starts, I wanted to give you all an update on what’s next. Part of that is to make sure I actually do it and part of it is just to give you all a reason to subscribe if you haven’t already. So next week, I’m going to look at what could go right and what could go wrong for this team. Also, going to give my 2023 hot takes, which are almost always wrong, so use them to bet accordingly. I’ll have my breakout candidates for the 2023 team and then on Thursday, I’ll publish my MLB predictions that include awards, playoffs and more.

So I’m looking forward to the next week or so and then finally getting the chance to write about games that mean something. As I’m no longer doing series previews for Royals Review, I’ll be doing a look ahead preview for the game that day when I publish a new newsletter and I honestly don’t know what else throughout the year, but I do know the Weekend in Review will be back and Crown Jewels will have to move around a little bit. I’m so happy you’re along for this ride with me. Here’s to a great 2023!

I’ll remind you once more that it’s 25% off a paid subscription through April 2! I’ll be choosing the Opening Day tickets (with parking) winner on Monday, so make sure you subscribe before then to be eligible!