Crown Jewels: A Rumored (and Shot Down) Trade, New Royals Projections and the Roster

We've reached the holidays, so things will slow down for the Royals and stay slow for basically everyone else.

At the beginning of the offseason, there were seemingly two free agents who were thought to potentially hold up the market. The two were teammates this past spring in the World Baseball Classic, and now they’re going to be teammates again after Yoshinobu Yamamoto agreed to join Shohei Ohtani on the Dodgers. Given the calendar, the impact may not be felt on the market because things can get fairly slow around this time of year, but this should clear the way for some additional movement around the game. I don’t think the Royals are done, but I don’t know how much this changes anything for the Royals since they did already get their big shopping done.

I wrote toward the end of the playoffs that I had heard the Royals wanted to jump the market a bit. It sure seemed like they failed in that regard, but given that only 54 or 55 free agents have signed this winter and the Royals have gotten six of them, I’d say they did what they intended to do even if it took a little longer than expected to get started. If you want to get even more crazy, there have only been 29 players to sign for $5 million or more and the Royals have signed five of them. I’ll get to anything else I’m expecting from them in a bit, but yeah, I’d say the mission was accomplished.

As for the only team to spend far and away more than the Royals (others have spent more but it’s closer), the Dodgers just keep getting pretty much whoever they want and a lot of people are worried about what it means for the game. In a lot of ways, I agree. In so many others, though, I don’t see anything different about what they’re doing today than what the Yankees have done and what the Mets tried to do last year. Okay, that’s not entirely true. The Dodgers are doing it while also being smarter in other areas than everyone else, which gives them an advantage that I don’t think anyone else has ever had. That said, while the Ohtani deal is one that is perfectly within the rules, I don’t care how much mental maneuvering people can do to tell you that it’s really a 10 year, $460 million deal, it’s a deal that I think forces some changes in the next CBA.

Deferrals will still be allowed, but the Dodgers are able to kick the can down the road on so much of that deal and invest that money that is being used to pay it and I’ve seen some estimates that they may double that money. Again, it’s not breaking the rules and it’s smart for them, but offering a player 10 years and $700 million and then being able to pay him so much less and have their tax number be so much less is something I’d be surprised if it can be done in a few years. But it can for now, so c’est la vie, I guess.

Vinnie for Luzardo

This one made the rounds last week, and I didn’t think much of it because it’s a deal that didn’t happen, but I’ve been thinking quite a bit about it since then. Some of that is because of some great comment conversations about it and some of it is because this is a truly fascinating trade proposal. Apparently, the Royals and Marlins talked and the Marlins wanted Vinnie Pasquantino in exchange for Jesus Luzardo. The Royals didn’t want to give up Pasquantino and they pivoted to sign Michael Wacha.

My first thought was relief that they didn’t trade Pasquantino, but then I wondered a little bit if I was just overvaluing a guy I really like on the field but maybe like more as a person. So I wanted to think about this a little more. On one hand, Pasquantino is a first baseman/designated hitter. He has to hit to have any real value. On the other hand, he has (until the slump that led to the season-ending surgery). On the third hand, he did have that season-ending shoulder surgery. Guys generally come back from that these days and he looks great in some videos that are out there, but it’s no guarantee. But then pull out that fourth hand and count how many guys are basically even in strikeouts and walks while also hitting for power.

I’ll answer that for you. I looked at all hitters with 400+ plate appearances in 2023 and among those hitters with 25 or more home runs, just four of the 52 had a strikeout and walk rate within four percent of each other. Take out a fifth hand because Pasquantino also doesn’t have 20 career home runs in 558 plate appearances, so this is hopeful power for him to join that group. But he also did look like that power was coming before the injury. Either way, if that’s the guy he can become, his skills are rare.

But Luzardo has rare skills too. Int he last two years, he’s made 50 starts with a 3.52 ERA and 328 strikeouts to 90 walks over 279 innings. I don’t know if those are ace numbers, but they’re certainly top-half-of-the-rotation numbers. He doesn’t give up hits. He doesn’t give up home runs. He’s excellent. And he’s under team control through 2026. That’s a heck of a pitcher and if you want to look at it a different way, the Royals could have reportedly had that for a first baseman/designated hitter on a team that has at least three other designated hitters and could turn around and sign Carlos Santana if they really wanted to.

But even thinking it through, I agree with the Royals not making that deal. I would absolutely love to have Luzardo in that rotation, but I wonder a bit how exactly they’re scoring runs without Pasquantino in the middle being one of the few hitters who can work an honest-to-goodness walk in this lineup. I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here, but I’d take five years of Pasquantino and a short deal for Wacha over three years of Luzardo and having to find another Pasquatch.

New Royals Projections

If you’re like me and absolutely love projections, the offseason is a fun time for you because of that. It might be fun for you for other reasons, but I like them a lot. I didn’t get into it when they came out because I missed them the day they happened and then it got a little farther away and other stuff happened too, but the ZiPS projections came out from Dan Szymborski on Fangraphs and boy did they paint a picture for the Royals. The entire bullpen was projected to be worth -0.1 zWAR. That’s, well, yikes.

The only starter with more than two wins was Cole Ragans at 2.6 and Brady Singer was a “strong” number two, zWAR-wise, at 1.9. Look, I think some of these are a touch too conservative, but you have to remember the way an algorithm like a projection system works. All it knows is the data. It doesn’t especially care that this player is working at this place and that player has tweaked his swing to add more loft. It knows that a player hit this last year and this the year before and the projection is based on those numbers. Bobby Witt Jr., for example, at 4.1 zWAR in the projection would represent a sizable step back. But he made such a big jump that projections are going to have a bit of a tough time buying it. It’s almost better to have zero track record.

One of the limitations to ZiPS is that the projection comes out before the offseason is over. And in the case of the Royals, it came out before it even really started for most people. The only addition to the team on Dan’s list was Nick Anderson, who came over in that deal a week or so earlier on non-tender day. So that means this ugly projection was without Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Seth Lugo, Wacha and Hunter Renfroe. It was also without Garrett Hampson, but I enjoyed that one being missing. I need to ask Dan to run the ones who are missing, but if he’s already done a team that these guys were on previously, there is a projection for them with their old team and I just wanted to share those today.

• Lugo: 4.08 ERA, 21.5% K, 7.2% BB, 4.39 FIP, 1.3 zWAR

• Wacha: 4.15 ERA, 21.1% K, 7.2% BB, 4.53 FIP, 1.3 zWAR

I guess it was just those two. That’s okay. There’s another projection system that comes out early in the winter called Steamer. It’s an interesting one to me as well and I can give you all of the signings on this one:

• Lugo: 4.36 ERA, 20.2% K, 7.3% BB, 4.28 FIP, 2.1 WAR

• Wacha: 4.67 ERA, 19.3% K, 7.1% BB, 4.63 FIP, 1.6 WAR

• Smith: 4.57 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 21.5% K, 9.4% BB, 0.0 WAR

• Stratton: 4.30 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 21.3% K, 8.8% BB, 0.2 WAR

• Hampson: .239/.305/.346, 24.5% K, 7.9% BB, 77 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

• Renfroe: .251/.313/.451, 21.8% K, 7.8% BB, 104 wRC+, 0.7 WAR

Personally, I think Steamer regresses relievers a little too much. It’s not that it can’t happen, but I think I’d be surprised if Smith’s strikeout numbers dropped so far. Stratton checks out, Wacha might be a little worse than I’d expect, but maybe the three years prior to the last two are still weighing pretty heavily in that algorithm. I don’t know. And Hampson’s projection looks about like you’d expect Hampson’s projection to look. Anyway, they’re just numbers spit out by a program, so I don’t think anyone should put too much stock into them, but I like to see what they look like and I thought you would too.

What the Roster Looks Like Today

After all the moves, it’s fair to wonder what the Royals roster looks like today. It’s certainly different than the end of last season. Here’s how I see it:

Catchers

Salvador Perez
Freddy Fermin

Infield

Pasquantino
Michael Massey
Maikel Garcia
Bobby Witt Jr.
Nick Loftin
Garrett Hampson

Outfield

MJ Melendez
Kyle Isbel
Hunter Renfroe
Nelson Velazquez
Drew Waters

Starters

Cole Ragans
Wacha
Lugo
Brady Singer
Jordan Lyles

Bullpen

Smith
James McArthur
Stratton
John McMillon
Carlos Hernandez
Jake Brentz
Angel Zerpa
Matt Sauer

They keep mentioning another bullpen arm and a lefty bat. I still think Ryne Stanek could be a possibility in the bullpen, though they’ve made a lot of shrewd minor league signings. I wonder if they look at this unit and say they’ve got the depth they need for now, though I hope not. I still think someone gets traded from the outfield and I still think it’s Melendez, though as I said earlier this week, I’m a bit less confident on that. I think Dairon Blanco has a shot to make this team too, but he’s on the outside looking in right now. Samad Taylor will be competing with Loftin for a utility infield spot as well, but he’s in the same boat as Blanco.

It’ll be interesting to see how this all shakes out. For now, though, unless the Royals have another Friday like last week, this is the last Inside the Crown before Christmas, so I want to wish a very Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate. And if you don’t come back before the new year, Happy New Year to you as well. I mean, Happy New Year to everyone, but I’ll get those of you who are reading next week at that time!