Great analysis David! I am glad that the Royals have upgraded their team because watching their games from Arizona last season usually lasted until the bullpen would blow the game for the Royals. Hopefully, there is enough pitching depth and the young core nucleus of Witt, Velazquez, Vinny, Garcia, Loftin, and others continues to improve!
Yep, Merry Christmas David, thanks for all the work this year. I couldn’t quite tell if you thought the Wacha/Lugo projections were wrong. To me, they look pretty in line with what I would expect. Maybe people are expecting low 3’s era…..but that’s a bit overzealous I think. IDK, right around 2WAR pitching is kind of what you pencil to for me. And that’s ok, that makes this team much better. It’s what you are paying for. Stepping back and looking at the roster again that you listed. I see an average rotation (maybe slightly below average) but much better. I see a better….but maybe slightly below average bullpen yet. And then offense I still see an average offense. Yes, they have the ability to be better, but I’m tired of the “offense has the potential to be good stories”. I think I bought that last year and now I need more proof before buying again. Lol, but yes, I know the second half of last season was much better. Average isn’t bad, it’s a start anyway. So if it’s average (maybe slightly below) in rotation, slightly below average in bullpen yet, and average in offense. 72-77 wins seems about right to me.
I think Wacha’s Steamer is a little wonky personally. I think an ERA in the 4-4.25 range is about right.
As for the offense, they do have the potential to be good. If you’ve already seen it, then they no longer have that potential; they just are. They were pretty solid in that second half without Vinnie, but we’ll see where they are when the lights come on. The start of seasons has long been an issue for the bats.
So here is a totally irrelevant hypothetical questions. It’s on Vinny/Luzardo…I like talking about that one because it’s an actual talent for talent trade. I kind of think you need to be good (above average) in one of starting, relief, offense to win a division. Usually probably more than one of those three but it’s the central here so we can dream. If they are average across the board let’s say we think. But if you add Luzardo for Vinny, let’s say that gets you to ABOVE average in the rotation. But clearly you are now below average in offense again. So is it better to be meh across the board but no big weakness (we hope anyway), or better to be good in one spot and figure out how to fill weakness later. Not sure a wrong answer. Just interesting.
In the Central, I’d take average across the board. The issue with the Royals rotation is that, right now, there just isn’t much upside. Ragans has a shot to be legit obviously but I don’t see more than a 3 from anyone else. I’m very curious to see how Barnett, Champlain and Sandlin progress this year though.
I've been against the Vinnie/Luzardo trade since it was first floated but I think I've just changed my mind. Not because I think that's a good trade in a vacuum, but because they have to move someone (or multiple someones).
The outfield you listed seems really bad from a roster construction standpoint. As it stands today, I think MJ is on the bench (with Isbel, Renfroe and Velazquez starting) and that means his value just falls off the table - in that scenario, not only is he not producing for us, his ability to bring back anything of value plummets.
This is a big reason I didn't love the Renfroe signing - not only is he not an exciting addition, he doesn't add much to the team it didn't already have. But, he's here and they didn't sign him to be a pinch hitter, so, I'd be willing to take a small loss on trading Vinnie (with a strong possibility that it's actually a win, if Vinnie doesn't end up being the hitter I think he will be, or if Luzardo turns out to be an ace) just to have more positional flexibility.
I'd also love to have room on the roster for Blanco, especially since we'll need a defensive replacement for Renfroe.
A better answer to the logjam might be to trade Salvy, as sad as that would make me, depending on the return available.
I'm with you 100% that this roster is still unfinished. I think there are a couple schools of thought here, and it depends on what the actual thought process behind these moves is for the Royals. Do they believe they have a roster to win a division or do they believe they have a roster that can make it close enough in a mediocre (or bad) division that they might squeak out a flag? There's a big difference there because they're still building to what they hope is more sustainable success.
If they believe they can win a division this year without having to have x number of things go right, then yes, someone has to get moved and someone has to get moved soon. But if they've done this with an eye on, 'hey, it could work' but don't want to sabotage future years, then I'm actually sort of okay with this roster still being a square peg in a round hole. Maybe the time isn't right to trade Melendez because he only has two and a half good months after struggling. Maybe the deal wasn't Luzardo for Pasquantino but instead Luzardo for Pasquantino and Barnett (just an example). Does Vinnie need three months to show he's healthy before the deal can be Luzardo and ______ for him? Maybe!
All that said, yes, they need to make some moves for this to work and that's part of why I don't love the Renfroe deal. You go get, say, Gurriel for 3/45 and it makes sense to add. Renfroe could wind up being a bargain and maybe Nelson Velazquez is a flash in the pan or Melendez regresses back to first half form, but I feel like they already have Renfroe's upside on the roster. And you're right. A Salvy trade clears out a good chunk of that logjam. I'm no longer expecting it, but it still wouldn't surprise me.
Merry Christmas! I think I agree with keeping Vinnie as well. But the more I've thought about, I'm not sure its a clear cut no like I thought initially. I keep wondering if Loftin is being floated for trades. Just wonder when him and Gentry are going to get a shot. But I have no idea what Loftins value is, can't imagine its that high. It definitely seems like they have a few more things in mind. Hopefully they give us more exciting things to talk about in January!
Keep in mind that these moves allow the Royals to not have to rely on rookies to hit the ground running. How many times have we lamented that other teams get fast starts from young players and the Royals just don’t? And then you look and realize the Royals had their guys hitting in key spots and playing every single day while other teams could ease them and put them in advantageous situations. I want to see these guys get shots, but I think this helps their development some.
I’m pretty sure everyone knows by now my dream scenario is a Garcia/Melendez trade for a Miami pitcher….dare I say Alcantara…but I’d probably settle for Braxton. My hope is Garcia is the one floated for trades over Loftin. I totally get pushing down the depth and in general that is great. I’m just not as high on Garcia as most it seems and worry about a bad stretch to start the year taking some of the shine off. It’s just that I’m not sure Loftin can’t do everything just as well as Garcia to be honest. But if you want to make him earn it…totally get that and it’s a place the Royals really should be at. With the outfield numbers they already have…I’m not sure what they think of Gentry. I’m fine with making him earn it but he’s going to need a trade or a number of injuries to clear some space the way it looks right now. Plenty can change yet though.
Loftin lacks the glove and the speed. He’s not a bad defender and he’s not slow, but Garcia is better in both. I’m also not as high on Garcia though I’m working on something for next week probably that has opened my eyes up a bit on him. Still, I’m fine moving Garcia for a legit arm.
So glad the Royals kept Pasquatch! Obviously, we have no idea how he and Luzardo's careers will pan out yet, but it seems to me, and it could be my own bias, that the ceiling for Vinnie is much, much higher. Both will probably do well, and pitchers are certainly a premium position, but I just feel like Vinnie could be really, really, good for a long time (think Mike Sweeney perhaps - oh please be that good!!!).
Obviously, there is still room for improvement in several areas (pitching and outfield seem most obvious - and perhaps 2nd base), but this roster at least appears to be much more competitive than where we were last year. I'm looking forward to the season, and if we can remain near the top of the division, I now feel like there's a good chance we would add an extra bat or arm after the all-star break to try to get us to the top of the division. And, if things don't work out and we're near the bottom again, hopefully we'll at least have a few more pieces that are worth trading at the deadline for some potential future players. Whatever happens, at least it appears that we're trying to get better, and for now, that counts for something.
I'm not sure if I agree that his ceiling is much, much higher, but I do think the floor is higher if he's healthy. Kind of a big if after the surgery, but everything seems to be going well for him, so it's a fair enough assumption at least.
My biggest fear for this team is they're sitting at something like 48-50 at the break and like five games out of first and stand pat. But that's a worry for another day.
I was starting to feel a little crazy bc I think the mlb might be heading the way of WWE with the Ohtani/tax deferment/dodgers thing. Realize you probably don't think its the end of mlb, but glad someone in the know (other than us twitter toggle fans) is also wary of the potential effect. Hopefully I will still be able to listen to pro ball in my golden years, and future generations can enjoy the same.
Concerned with everyone thinking of Vinnie as a sure thing next year. I am all on board with the Pasquatch, but he isn't exactly proven yet. If I were gm I think I would have taken Luzardo, But maybe the front office (who does this for a living) is thinking team first? which I like. But I hope it is more that they think Vinnie will be a beast and a clubhouse force
Great analysis David! I am glad that the Royals have upgraded their team because watching their games from Arizona last season usually lasted until the bullpen would blow the game for the Royals. Hopefully, there is enough pitching depth and the young core nucleus of Witt, Velazquez, Vinny, Garcia, Loftin, and others continues to improve!
Yep, Merry Christmas David, thanks for all the work this year. I couldn’t quite tell if you thought the Wacha/Lugo projections were wrong. To me, they look pretty in line with what I would expect. Maybe people are expecting low 3’s era…..but that’s a bit overzealous I think. IDK, right around 2WAR pitching is kind of what you pencil to for me. And that’s ok, that makes this team much better. It’s what you are paying for. Stepping back and looking at the roster again that you listed. I see an average rotation (maybe slightly below average) but much better. I see a better….but maybe slightly below average bullpen yet. And then offense I still see an average offense. Yes, they have the ability to be better, but I’m tired of the “offense has the potential to be good stories”. I think I bought that last year and now I need more proof before buying again. Lol, but yes, I know the second half of last season was much better. Average isn’t bad, it’s a start anyway. So if it’s average (maybe slightly below) in rotation, slightly below average in bullpen yet, and average in offense. 72-77 wins seems about right to me.
I think Wacha’s Steamer is a little wonky personally. I think an ERA in the 4-4.25 range is about right.
As for the offense, they do have the potential to be good. If you’ve already seen it, then they no longer have that potential; they just are. They were pretty solid in that second half without Vinnie, but we’ll see where they are when the lights come on. The start of seasons has long been an issue for the bats.
So here is a totally irrelevant hypothetical questions. It’s on Vinny/Luzardo…I like talking about that one because it’s an actual talent for talent trade. I kind of think you need to be good (above average) in one of starting, relief, offense to win a division. Usually probably more than one of those three but it’s the central here so we can dream. If they are average across the board let’s say we think. But if you add Luzardo for Vinny, let’s say that gets you to ABOVE average in the rotation. But clearly you are now below average in offense again. So is it better to be meh across the board but no big weakness (we hope anyway), or better to be good in one spot and figure out how to fill weakness later. Not sure a wrong answer. Just interesting.
In the Central, I’d take average across the board. The issue with the Royals rotation is that, right now, there just isn’t much upside. Ragans has a shot to be legit obviously but I don’t see more than a 3 from anyone else. I’m very curious to see how Barnett, Champlain and Sandlin progress this year though.
I've been against the Vinnie/Luzardo trade since it was first floated but I think I've just changed my mind. Not because I think that's a good trade in a vacuum, but because they have to move someone (or multiple someones).
The outfield you listed seems really bad from a roster construction standpoint. As it stands today, I think MJ is on the bench (with Isbel, Renfroe and Velazquez starting) and that means his value just falls off the table - in that scenario, not only is he not producing for us, his ability to bring back anything of value plummets.
This is a big reason I didn't love the Renfroe signing - not only is he not an exciting addition, he doesn't add much to the team it didn't already have. But, he's here and they didn't sign him to be a pinch hitter, so, I'd be willing to take a small loss on trading Vinnie (with a strong possibility that it's actually a win, if Vinnie doesn't end up being the hitter I think he will be, or if Luzardo turns out to be an ace) just to have more positional flexibility.
I'd also love to have room on the roster for Blanco, especially since we'll need a defensive replacement for Renfroe.
A better answer to the logjam might be to trade Salvy, as sad as that would make me, depending on the return available.
I'm with you 100% that this roster is still unfinished. I think there are a couple schools of thought here, and it depends on what the actual thought process behind these moves is for the Royals. Do they believe they have a roster to win a division or do they believe they have a roster that can make it close enough in a mediocre (or bad) division that they might squeak out a flag? There's a big difference there because they're still building to what they hope is more sustainable success.
If they believe they can win a division this year without having to have x number of things go right, then yes, someone has to get moved and someone has to get moved soon. But if they've done this with an eye on, 'hey, it could work' but don't want to sabotage future years, then I'm actually sort of okay with this roster still being a square peg in a round hole. Maybe the time isn't right to trade Melendez because he only has two and a half good months after struggling. Maybe the deal wasn't Luzardo for Pasquantino but instead Luzardo for Pasquantino and Barnett (just an example). Does Vinnie need three months to show he's healthy before the deal can be Luzardo and ______ for him? Maybe!
All that said, yes, they need to make some moves for this to work and that's part of why I don't love the Renfroe deal. You go get, say, Gurriel for 3/45 and it makes sense to add. Renfroe could wind up being a bargain and maybe Nelson Velazquez is a flash in the pan or Melendez regresses back to first half form, but I feel like they already have Renfroe's upside on the roster. And you're right. A Salvy trade clears out a good chunk of that logjam. I'm no longer expecting it, but it still wouldn't surprise me.
Merry Christmas! I think I agree with keeping Vinnie as well. But the more I've thought about, I'm not sure its a clear cut no like I thought initially. I keep wondering if Loftin is being floated for trades. Just wonder when him and Gentry are going to get a shot. But I have no idea what Loftins value is, can't imagine its that high. It definitely seems like they have a few more things in mind. Hopefully they give us more exciting things to talk about in January!
Keep in mind that these moves allow the Royals to not have to rely on rookies to hit the ground running. How many times have we lamented that other teams get fast starts from young players and the Royals just don’t? And then you look and realize the Royals had their guys hitting in key spots and playing every single day while other teams could ease them and put them in advantageous situations. I want to see these guys get shots, but I think this helps their development some.
I’m pretty sure everyone knows by now my dream scenario is a Garcia/Melendez trade for a Miami pitcher….dare I say Alcantara…but I’d probably settle for Braxton. My hope is Garcia is the one floated for trades over Loftin. I totally get pushing down the depth and in general that is great. I’m just not as high on Garcia as most it seems and worry about a bad stretch to start the year taking some of the shine off. It’s just that I’m not sure Loftin can’t do everything just as well as Garcia to be honest. But if you want to make him earn it…totally get that and it’s a place the Royals really should be at. With the outfield numbers they already have…I’m not sure what they think of Gentry. I’m fine with making him earn it but he’s going to need a trade or a number of injuries to clear some space the way it looks right now. Plenty can change yet though.
Loftin lacks the glove and the speed. He’s not a bad defender and he’s not slow, but Garcia is better in both. I’m also not as high on Garcia though I’m working on something for next week probably that has opened my eyes up a bit on him. Still, I’m fine moving Garcia for a legit arm.
So glad the Royals kept Pasquatch! Obviously, we have no idea how he and Luzardo's careers will pan out yet, but it seems to me, and it could be my own bias, that the ceiling for Vinnie is much, much higher. Both will probably do well, and pitchers are certainly a premium position, but I just feel like Vinnie could be really, really, good for a long time (think Mike Sweeney perhaps - oh please be that good!!!).
Obviously, there is still room for improvement in several areas (pitching and outfield seem most obvious - and perhaps 2nd base), but this roster at least appears to be much more competitive than where we were last year. I'm looking forward to the season, and if we can remain near the top of the division, I now feel like there's a good chance we would add an extra bat or arm after the all-star break to try to get us to the top of the division. And, if things don't work out and we're near the bottom again, hopefully we'll at least have a few more pieces that are worth trading at the deadline for some potential future players. Whatever happens, at least it appears that we're trying to get better, and for now, that counts for something.
I'm not sure if I agree that his ceiling is much, much higher, but I do think the floor is higher if he's healthy. Kind of a big if after the surgery, but everything seems to be going well for him, so it's a fair enough assumption at least.
My biggest fear for this team is they're sitting at something like 48-50 at the break and like five games out of first and stand pat. But that's a worry for another day.
I was starting to feel a little crazy bc I think the mlb might be heading the way of WWE with the Ohtani/tax deferment/dodgers thing. Realize you probably don't think its the end of mlb, but glad someone in the know (other than us twitter toggle fans) is also wary of the potential effect. Hopefully I will still be able to listen to pro ball in my golden years, and future generations can enjoy the same.
Concerned with everyone thinking of Vinnie as a sure thing next year. I am all on board with the Pasquatch, but he isn't exactly proven yet. If I were gm I think I would have taken Luzardo, But maybe the front office (who does this for a living) is thinking team first? which I like. But I hope it is more that they think Vinnie will be a beast and a clubhouse force
Happy New Year!