We've made it to less than a week before pitchers and catchers report, so Royals baseball will be happening soon. It's up to you if that's a good thing or not.
They've made a lot of changes in development. Started to see some of that in the metrics on the pitching side, but yeah, need to get guys through the system and have them be productive big leaguers sooner than later for sure.
By projections, no. First base takes a hit on defensive value and DH takes a massive hit, of course. He was 1.5 in basically half a season in 2022, so I think it's very possible he's 2.5-3.5ish, but the projections aren't showing that. That's part of why WAR isn't a perfect stat, but for a quick and dirty conversation, it works.
"Other than Jordan Lyles, they don’t have a pitcher who has thrown more than 160 innings since 2017"
-That's why I'd be okay if they brought back Greinke as insurance for a minimal price. He was way better at the end of the season in the opener/bulk role.
I really liked Greinke in that role and I think that it might be his role wherever he ends up. The only issue I have with bringing him back is how does he fit? Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson and James McArthur are no-brainers. I think they'd really like to keep matt Sauer. That's five spots. John McMillon has the best stuff of any of them, so if he's healthy, there's a sixth spot. There are two spots that are filled by Carlos Hernandez, who was the best in that bullpen at times last year (and the worst at others) and probably a second lefty. I wouldn't be upset if one of those final two had to end up in AAA, but it is a tight squeeze. I'd be all for it, though.
I had a Gawd-awful, long day...and my eyes are tired. So for a second, I thought you wrote Carlos was taking up 2 spots on the roster. And I thought "Dang, Lesky...I know he's a big fella, but that seems kinda harsh".
Ha, I was hoping for Greinke to come back in a lesser role, but hadn't even considered there wasn't much room for him! How great is it that the royals are actually in that position?
That being said I wish the MLB would lay off a little on limiting pitchers and creative uses. As I have grown older, I appreciate the art of pitching so much more; I like to see teams getting creative to make the most of what they got. I concede the need to at least see three batters, and the 14 max pitchers, but did they have to go to 13 (at least I think they have now)? I feel like this is one edge smaller market teams can take advantage of. By limiting the number of pitchers, aren't salaries going to increase for the ones that do fit in the mold, pricing out smaller markets?
So maybe Greinke doesn't fit what royals are trying to do this year, but I would not be at all surprised to see him rocking the powder blues in the bullpen opening day
When I saw how McMillon was projected I officially quit caring about projections. 2014/2015 did most of the work, but that is just egregious.
If the point is that he may be great or he may be worthless if his health doesn't cooperate, I guess I can see projecting him at the midpoint, but even that still seems too low. If he's hurt, he won't get many innings, so he'll be at or just below 0 WAR. If he gets any significant number of innings, that means he's back to being who he was, which is going to be terrific. If the projections take what he did last year (when healthy) and spit out 0.0 as a result, they're fatally flawed.
But they don’t just take last year into account. It’s multiple seasons and they look at comparable pitchers and all that and when you look at McMillon’s body of work, he was great at all levels, but in 2022 he was WAY old for the league and walked 38 batters in 31 innings with a 6+ ERA. You’re a human. You see that he made changes and improved last year and all of that. A program doesn’t see that side of it. It sees a guy who had his first good year as a pro after he was AWFUL the year before at the lowest level playing at an age when many are in the big leagues.
I get it. Those are the limitations of the tool. I just have concluded that for me, those limitations make the tool too flawed to use. Still fun to look at for articles like yours as long as fans don't put too much stock in the projections themselves.
(To explain my view: Like any model, the point is to simplify a set of complex data enough to make that data useful, but like any model, if you simplify too much, you lose too many important details (e.g., your point about McMillon). Then, when we aggregate 26 simplified data sets to project a team's future, what does that do to the margin of error? The sample size is too small for variance to smooth out, so some years random factors will cause the model to miss big on a lot of projections all in one direction or the other. Then when we add in the effect of biases in the model (i.e., the 2014/2015 Royals effect, where the team succeeded by doing things the model didn't properly value), the net result is pretty shaky.)
I think that's true of every statistic or tool. There are limitations on everything, it's a matter of how you use them. Again, McMillon's projection is the 50th percentile outcome. There is a non-zero chance he hits his 99th percentile outcome. Teams, for example, have their own projections that show the likelihood a player hits that 60th or 70th or 90th percentile outcome and then can make decisions based on that. In McMillon's case, his projection has him walking 16.2% of all batters faced. Last year, he walked 11.7%. Let's say he does that in the projected 39.1 innings. Instead of 29 walks, it's now 21 walks. Eight walks in 39.1 innings is pretty signifcant. It doesn't make the tool useless, it's just something to keep in mind.
In all the excitement, I didn’t realize Ragans (100 innings), Wacha, Lugo, and Singer have never thrown more than 160 innings in a season. I know the depth is better….but I’m still of the opinion if things go south…it’s because they couldn’t get to 150 innings from each of those guys. They have options behind them, much better….but they still NEED those guys to give us 125-150 each. Pitchers get hurt, and it’s part of the game…get that development train going. I see potential in the offense with Vinny coming back….I don’t really think the floor is much lower than it was last year with that group. Bullpen we can get figured out…but at the end of the day…it’s gonna be about the pitching again. Why I was hoping they could get one more legit guy. Starter or reliever…but I’m not complaining with what they got done. Lol.
Wacha has, it's just been a long time for him. But yeah, I don't think it's a hot take to say that if two or three of their top five starters struggle that the team will too.
I guess it’s no different than a lot of teams is it. I think maybe the only difference is (me included) has Ragans slotted in at one……That’s a big question mark at one yet with no more than 100 innings….and those 100 innings were not special at that time. More so than Vinny….I think Ragans is the barometer for the team this year. If he’s the same, you have an ace. If he’s not or hurt…you have a bunch of mid rotation guys…which will keep you in games…but you won’t hit your ceiling that way.
I think that's fair to say he's the barometer. But while he's maybe more of a question than others, every team has that same question. If their best starter goes down, they're probably in some level of trouble. The Royals are in a lot less trouble today with that than they were when the season ended at least.
I enjoyed this Inside the Crown and agree with everything but this statement, "Second, they want a new stadium." You are probably correct, but the fans I have chatted with don't want a new stadium nor do I. Not that it wouldn't spruce up wherever it will be located, but the cost is astronomical and will probably keep going up, but the present stadium is an absolute wonder. Spend the money wisely on players and see if the fans don't come out again. By the way, I see nothing wrong with progress.
The "they" is the Royals organization. They absolutely, unequivocally want a new stadium. And they're going to get it because I think the vote is going to pass pretty easily.
Ah, of course. Sorry. That's one of the main reasons dollars were spent this past off-season to influence voters, which is nice. Just wish it would have been sooner. And yes, new stadiums are nice. Just give me a good product. The Chiefs being included will make the vote go ownership's way.
Yeah, I honestly think the Chiefs involvement would have gotten it to pass either way, but when you spend money AND sign Witt long-term too, it'll be a slam dunk.
I think if they signed him, he'd work more in a bulk role, but I don't see much of an opportunity for him at this point. I could see him not signing until spring training starts to see if there are any injury openings.
Coming around a bit on Frazier and Renfroe on joining former teammate Stratton. Just recently realized they had all played college ball together. So that may be kinda cool for the youngones to see that success (and kind of cheesy but still looking forward to nachos tomorrow).
I give the royals an A on offseason.
Also glad to see Bubic may be coming back a little earlier than I thought, I feel better about him than Lynch, but a little more hopeful Lynch may be ok this year.
Contest for wins this year? I will actually lay a very small amount of money on the over 71.5, but for this forum Im going with the super optimistic:
Can't wait for season to start. Great off season by Royals. Now we have to fix the minor leagues and start developing young players.
They've made a lot of changes in development. Started to see some of that in the metrics on the pitching side, but yeah, need to get guys through the system and have them be productive big leaguers sooner than later for sure.
Vinnie not a 2 WAR player this season?
By projections, no. First base takes a hit on defensive value and DH takes a massive hit, of course. He was 1.5 in basically half a season in 2022, so I think it's very possible he's 2.5-3.5ish, but the projections aren't showing that. That's part of why WAR isn't a perfect stat, but for a quick and dirty conversation, it works.
Edwin Starr : "This is what I have.
WAR!!!!!!!!! Good Gawd!!!!
What is it good for?
Quick & dirty conversation
Say it again!!!"
Producer : ( silent...just stares at Starr )
Edwin : Back to the ol' drawin' board.
"Other than Jordan Lyles, they don’t have a pitcher who has thrown more than 160 innings since 2017"
-That's why I'd be okay if they brought back Greinke as insurance for a minimal price. He was way better at the end of the season in the opener/bulk role.
I really liked Greinke in that role and I think that it might be his role wherever he ends up. The only issue I have with bringing him back is how does he fit? Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson and James McArthur are no-brainers. I think they'd really like to keep matt Sauer. That's five spots. John McMillon has the best stuff of any of them, so if he's healthy, there's a sixth spot. There are two spots that are filled by Carlos Hernandez, who was the best in that bullpen at times last year (and the worst at others) and probably a second lefty. I wouldn't be upset if one of those final two had to end up in AAA, but it is a tight squeeze. I'd be all for it, though.
I had a Gawd-awful, long day...and my eyes are tired. So for a second, I thought you wrote Carlos was taking up 2 spots on the roster. And I thought "Dang, Lesky...I know he's a big fella, but that seems kinda harsh".
Ha, I was hoping for Greinke to come back in a lesser role, but hadn't even considered there wasn't much room for him! How great is it that the royals are actually in that position?
That being said I wish the MLB would lay off a little on limiting pitchers and creative uses. As I have grown older, I appreciate the art of pitching so much more; I like to see teams getting creative to make the most of what they got. I concede the need to at least see three batters, and the 14 max pitchers, but did they have to go to 13 (at least I think they have now)? I feel like this is one edge smaller market teams can take advantage of. By limiting the number of pitchers, aren't salaries going to increase for the ones that do fit in the mold, pricing out smaller markets?
So maybe Greinke doesn't fit what royals are trying to do this year, but I would not be at all surprised to see him rocking the powder blues in the bullpen opening day
When I saw how McMillon was projected I officially quit caring about projections. 2014/2015 did most of the work, but that is just egregious.
If the point is that he may be great or he may be worthless if his health doesn't cooperate, I guess I can see projecting him at the midpoint, but even that still seems too low. If he's hurt, he won't get many innings, so he'll be at or just below 0 WAR. If he gets any significant number of innings, that means he's back to being who he was, which is going to be terrific. If the projections take what he did last year (when healthy) and spit out 0.0 as a result, they're fatally flawed.
But they don’t just take last year into account. It’s multiple seasons and they look at comparable pitchers and all that and when you look at McMillon’s body of work, he was great at all levels, but in 2022 he was WAY old for the league and walked 38 batters in 31 innings with a 6+ ERA. You’re a human. You see that he made changes and improved last year and all of that. A program doesn’t see that side of it. It sees a guy who had his first good year as a pro after he was AWFUL the year before at the lowest level playing at an age when many are in the big leagues.
I get it. Those are the limitations of the tool. I just have concluded that for me, those limitations make the tool too flawed to use. Still fun to look at for articles like yours as long as fans don't put too much stock in the projections themselves.
(To explain my view: Like any model, the point is to simplify a set of complex data enough to make that data useful, but like any model, if you simplify too much, you lose too many important details (e.g., your point about McMillon). Then, when we aggregate 26 simplified data sets to project a team's future, what does that do to the margin of error? The sample size is too small for variance to smooth out, so some years random factors will cause the model to miss big on a lot of projections all in one direction or the other. Then when we add in the effect of biases in the model (i.e., the 2014/2015 Royals effect, where the team succeeded by doing things the model didn't properly value), the net result is pretty shaky.)
I think that's true of every statistic or tool. There are limitations on everything, it's a matter of how you use them. Again, McMillon's projection is the 50th percentile outcome. There is a non-zero chance he hits his 99th percentile outcome. Teams, for example, have their own projections that show the likelihood a player hits that 60th or 70th or 90th percentile outcome and then can make decisions based on that. In McMillon's case, his projection has him walking 16.2% of all batters faced. Last year, he walked 11.7%. Let's say he does that in the projected 39.1 innings. Instead of 29 walks, it's now 21 walks. Eight walks in 39.1 innings is pretty signifcant. It doesn't make the tool useless, it's just something to keep in mind.
In all the excitement, I didn’t realize Ragans (100 innings), Wacha, Lugo, and Singer have never thrown more than 160 innings in a season. I know the depth is better….but I’m still of the opinion if things go south…it’s because they couldn’t get to 150 innings from each of those guys. They have options behind them, much better….but they still NEED those guys to give us 125-150 each. Pitchers get hurt, and it’s part of the game…get that development train going. I see potential in the offense with Vinny coming back….I don’t really think the floor is much lower than it was last year with that group. Bullpen we can get figured out…but at the end of the day…it’s gonna be about the pitching again. Why I was hoping they could get one more legit guy. Starter or reliever…but I’m not complaining with what they got done. Lol.
Wacha has, it's just been a long time for him. But yeah, I don't think it's a hot take to say that if two or three of their top five starters struggle that the team will too.
I guess it’s no different than a lot of teams is it. I think maybe the only difference is (me included) has Ragans slotted in at one……That’s a big question mark at one yet with no more than 100 innings….and those 100 innings were not special at that time. More so than Vinny….I think Ragans is the barometer for the team this year. If he’s the same, you have an ace. If he’s not or hurt…you have a bunch of mid rotation guys…which will keep you in games…but you won’t hit your ceiling that way.
I think that's fair to say he's the barometer. But while he's maybe more of a question than others, every team has that same question. If their best starter goes down, they're probably in some level of trouble. The Royals are in a lot less trouble today with that than they were when the season ended at least.
I enjoyed this Inside the Crown and agree with everything but this statement, "Second, they want a new stadium." You are probably correct, but the fans I have chatted with don't want a new stadium nor do I. Not that it wouldn't spruce up wherever it will be located, but the cost is astronomical and will probably keep going up, but the present stadium is an absolute wonder. Spend the money wisely on players and see if the fans don't come out again. By the way, I see nothing wrong with progress.
The "they" is the Royals organization. They absolutely, unequivocally want a new stadium. And they're going to get it because I think the vote is going to pass pretty easily.
Ah, of course. Sorry. That's one of the main reasons dollars were spent this past off-season to influence voters, which is nice. Just wish it would have been sooner. And yes, new stadiums are nice. Just give me a good product. The Chiefs being included will make the vote go ownership's way.
Yeah, I honestly think the Chiefs involvement would have gotten it to pass either way, but when you spend money AND sign Witt long-term too, it'll be a slam dunk.
Agreed. Have a "super" weekend!
Thoughts of Grienke coming to camp for the opener role?
I think if they signed him, he'd work more in a bulk role, but I don't see much of an opportunity for him at this point. I could see him not signing until spring training starts to see if there are any injury openings.
For now I am sticking with "good thing".
Coming around a bit on Frazier and Renfroe on joining former teammate Stratton. Just recently realized they had all played college ball together. So that may be kinda cool for the youngones to see that success (and kind of cheesy but still looking forward to nachos tomorrow).
I give the royals an A on offseason.
Also glad to see Bubic may be coming back a little earlier than I thought, I feel better about him than Lynch, but a little more hopeful Lynch may be ok this year.
Contest for wins this year? I will actually lay a very small amount of money on the over 71.5, but for this forum Im going with the super optimistic:
81
A few websites talk about the Royals pursuit of a strong closer. Who do you see them going after and how might they obtain him?