Crown Jewels: Royals Trade Plans, Pratto Paying Off and a Weekend Preview

The drain has been circled, the nail is in the coffin and other fun sayings.

Last week I marveled at how the Royals have been weirdly competitive without winning games. They must have seen that and said, “oh you want to see us lose convincingly?” And then they did it. The last week has been some of the least competitive and sloppy baseball they’ve played all season and that’s really saying something given what the season has been to this point. We’ve seen bad defense, bad baserunning, bad pitching, really the works, which has just been about the least fun thing ever.

I think what we’re really seeing with the offense right now is that as Vinnie Pasquantino goes, so go the Royals and he has decidedly not being going lately. He’s in the midst of a pretty extended slump, which doesn’t have me worried necessarily. I do have a theory that he’s feeling the weight of a contract negotiation, but I don’t know anything particularly on that front. I can tell you they’re averaging 4.6 runs per game when he has multiple hits per game and and 4.4 runs per game when he reaches multiple times. When he has at least one hit, they score 4.4 runs per game. When he doesn’t get a hit, they average three runs per game even. So is it a surprise they’ve averaged 3.2 runs per game since his slump started? They need to get him going to have a shot.

Because the truth is the pitching has been okay enough. They’re 7-17 (he’s sat a couple of times) since he started slumping and while the pitching hasn’t been great, they have the sixth best FIP in baseball and 10th best strikeout rate. The ERA is still a little high at 4.53 in that time, but you can win games with a staff pitching at the level this staff is. The offense is now sputtering again, and I think they’d be much better off if their best hitter could get out of this funk. Until then, though, it’s tough to watch.

Before I move on, I have to apologize for the lack of content this week. I mentioned a new job and between that and a six-month old, it’s been…a week. The Royals playing as poorly as they did hasn’t helped things, but I’m looking forward to getting back to giving you at least three newsletters again next week (and probably four).

Trade Winds Blowing

A recent report came out about the path the Royals are planning to take, specifically with regard to Aroldis Chapman at the deadline. Ken Rosenthal went a bit into detail about the Royals plans at The Athletic. I’m not going to poach paid content and turn it into something for free, but I will include something that Rosenthal heard from an executive speaking anonymously about the options the Royals provided:

• Part with a better prospect package to gain control of Chapman for nearly four months of the regular season, rather than the two months a team would get by acquiring him at the trade Aug. 1 deadline.

• Accept Chapman as part of a package with another Royals player, enabling Kansas City to shed payroll while ensuring a better return in a trade.

He went on to mention that one club interpreted that as meaning Salvador Perez. And that sent an uproar through the fanbase. There are many who believe trading Salvy is the smart move. It might be! There are others who think it’s a disaster move. It might be! What I think the reality here is that trading Salvy in a salary dump is a huge disaster to the fanbase (though everyone comes back if/when they win). And I also believe, no matter what others might think, that there just isn’t as much trade value, particularly at the deadline. He’s a 33-year old catcher who is owed $44 million in 2024 and 2025 including the $2 million buyout for 2026 plus whatever is left of this year’s deal.

There isn’t a lineup in baseball that couldn’t use his bat, but Rosenthal notes that teams are already hesitant to trade for catching in the middle of a season. I just don’t see it. And people I’ve spoken to who are in the know have laughed about the report a little bit. What I’ve been able to gather is the plan is not to include Salvy as a salary dump. I think they’d trade him, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think they will because I don’t think the offer will be anywhere near good enough to pull the trigger.

What I believe is more in line with the plan is that they’ve told teams they’ll trade Chapman right this second, but teams are going to part with a lot more today than they’re going to part with in July. Just under four months left with him is more valuable than two months left with him and they’re charging teams the prospect tax on that accordingly. They’re also providing teams with an option that if they do want to wait, they can also have Scott Barlow (probably the arm in addition) for the same prospect return plus some at the end of July.

Just to provide an example, if they’re talking to the Rangers who badly need help in the bullpen, they’re asking for Brock Porter for Chapman (again, just an example) right now, but if they want to wait, they’ll still want Porter at the end of July but would include Barlow as well. At that point, the Rangers would need to add another piece or two, but that would get the deal done. Like I said, I’m not reporting any specific talks or anything like that, but that’s the way I think they’re going about their business.

I believe the Royals have earned their reputation to be doubted, but I think they’re handling this situation properly. We’ll see what the end result is, but at the onset, I like giving teams options like this. Personally, I’d like to see Chapman and Barlow separated in trades because I think they bring back more apart than together, but a team like the Rangers with so much invested this year might see that duo as a way to transform their bullpen with one move and maybe they do give up something silly for it, especially knowing Barlow is still under their control next season as well.

Pratto’s Hot Bat

There aren’t a lot of wins for the Royals these days, and that includes away from the standings. But one thing that has gone extremely well for them is Nick Pratto. I’ll admit that I didn’t know if he was going to be part of the plans for the future when the season started. He had a pretty up and down spring and then was demoted to start the season, which made sense given the makeup of the roster. But he’s been fantastic this season.

The overall line of .299/.395/.465 speaks for itself, but it’s even better since his recall. It only cuts off two games so it’s not that different, but he was working on some things in AAA and has hit .308/.407/.483 since his return. It sure seems like the power is coming for him too. The sample is small, but his ISO in June is .318 and it’s .244 since he was moved to the leadoff spot (with one game hitting seventh against a tough lefty).

The reality of Pratto is that he’s going to strike out. He’s doing it at a 34 percent clip this year, 32.9 percent since his return and 41.7 percent in June (that’s unsustainable one way or another, for what it’s worth). But I just love his approach at the plate. He’s only swinging at 23.6 percent of pitches outside the zone. He’s only swinging at all 40 percent of the time. That means he’s only swinging at pitches inside the zone 61.6 percent of the time. That’s going to lead to strikeouts because he’s going to get himself into some two-strike counts by simply not swinging. But this is what good hitters do in today’s game.

His zone swing percentage is in line with guys like Mookie Betts and Pete Alonso. His overall swing percentage is in line with guys like Kyle Schwarber and Yandy Diaz. Yes, there’s regression coming. His BABIP is .466. But his expected slash line of .264/.364/.452 with an xwOBA of .359 will certainly play.

What’s so interesting is that his average exit velocity isn’t especially good, ranking in the 20th percentile. His maximum exit velocity is also low, ranking int he 26th percentile. But his hard-hit rate is 44.2 percent, which ranks in the 67th percentile. So he’s not making the loudest contact, but he’s consistently making loud enough contact. Add in the ability to work a walk and it’s easy to see why he’s been successful.

We have a ways to go before I think I’m comfortable saying he’s part of the solution, but his position is interesting to me. He’s long been touted as an elite defensive first baseman, and we’ve seen some of the great plays he can make. But the metrics are not fans. If this sounds like Eric Hosmer, there are some similarities. He hasn’t been especially good laterally. I think he’s a great receiver of throws at first, which may matter more than anything, but there are enough questions about him defensively that his work in left field is something to at least keep an eye on.

He’s been solid in left, though the sample is super small. He isn’t fast, but he’s got a good enough arm to work in left. His jumps are pretty bad, but you wonder a little if that has to do with a lack of reps. I don’t know. I’m not sold on him in the outfield, but I do think that it can work for him out there. I’m honestly fine with him spending the bulk of the rest of the season in left and figuring that out.

If it turns out that it just won’t work there, then you have to make an offseason decision between him and Pasquantino. I’d personally lean to Pasquantino, but maybe the gap isn’t as big as we thought a couple months ago and you trade whoever brings back the ost. And if it does work, you feel like you’ve got at least four positions settled with catcher, first base, left field and shortstop (or third base) with Bobby Witt Jr. In the instance you do keep both Pratto and Pasquantino, I’m having a hard time seeing how MJ Melendez fits on that roster, but that’s another topic for another day.

A Weekend Preview

The Royals travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles this weekend (hopefully, I guess we can’t be too sure with the wildfire smoke), and it’s a little bit of a sobering opponent. I wrote this back when they played in Kansas City at the start of May, but the Orioles and Royals started their rebuild at roughly the same time. The difference, at the time, is that the Orioles had an elite player to trade while the Royals did not. But they didn’t actually end up getting any huge contributors for Manny Machado. I guess Dean Kremer is giving them consistent starts, but still.

What they’ve done better is develop talent. That said, it sure looked bleak for Baltimore in 2021 when they lost 110 games, two years after losing 108 and three years after losing 115. Even last year, they looked like they were headed to 90+ losses when they turned things around. Even today, the Orioles do have a lot of young talent, but I think people would be surprised to know that the best hitters on the team other than Adley Rutschman, who is a superstar, are Austin Hays and Anthony Santander (since Cedric Mullins is hurt). Gunnar Henderson has been better lately and there’s more on the way, but not as young star driven as we may think on the outside.

Their rotation isn’t all that great either. They have two things going for them. They generally don’t have any disasters. Grayson Rodriguez was a bit of a disaster, but he’s been sent back to AAA. Instead, they’re led mostly by a bit below average to a bit above average pitching. Tyler Wells has been a revelation. He was a Rule 5 pick and has been the Orioles best starter.

Where the Orioles excel is in shortening games. They’ve turned Felix Bautista into an elite closer. They’ve turned Yennier Cano into an elite reliever. Danny Coulombe has been very good. Bryan Baker has shown big-time strikeout stuff. I’m not sure I’m calling them the 2014 Royals, but they can make games shorter. And their offense, even with it not being led by their elite prospects for the most part, is still very good too. They’re a very big picture/full roster team. They need it all. And this weekend, the Royals will see Wells, likely Cole Irvin making his return and Kyle Gibson.

This is an interesting series for the Royals because the two starting pitchers who matter to the future - Daniel Lynch and Brady Singer are going. Given that the Orioles have a deep lineup, this is a good test for both of them. Singer is coming off his best start of the year while Lynch has looked good in his first two starts. The key will be the Royals offense getting out of their most recent funk. When these two teams met in early May, the Royals scored six or more runs in all three games. They got to Wells and beat Gibson, so maybe they’ll be able to get back on track against them again this weekend.