David, you don't owe any apologies for "lack of content." The Royals owe YOU an apology for being so damnably difficult (and probably depressing) to write about. Yet you always manage to find interesting topics and subtopics, which impresses me enormously.
As a young baseball fan I always wondered how unbearable it must have been to be a fan of the 1962 Mets, who won only 40 games in that godforsaken season. I don't have to wonder any longer.
This Royals team is on pace (barely) to win a few more games than that, and they have flirted with abysmal 50-win seasons before (although they would need to improve in order to reach that mark this year) but the 40-win record of that Mets team is still clearly within reach. This just may be the team to get it done.
The "problem" with a team on pace for however many wins at this point is that just about every team has a hot stretch. I did say "just about" which means there's room for exceptions, but there's going to be a point when they win 10 of 17 or something, which is barely considered hot, but if they did that starting tonight, for example, they'd be on a 57-win pace, which would put 40-122 pretty much out of reach. Now the A's...they might do it. A 10-7 stretch starting today for them puts them on just a 48-win pace. That can drop down fast.
David, I don’t blame you at all for not writing much this week. Honestly, this has to be pretty difficult. I don’t want to be negative today, but this is about as low as I’ve ever been on the Royals. Not only has the product been bad on the field, players aren’t quite improving as hoped, but I saw a report the other day that the Royals had exactly zero top 100 prospects. It’s not good no matter how you slice it right now. Couple thoughts today and maybe you can write more about these in the future.
1. I’ve expressed my thoughts on the front office. I sure hope A WHOLE lot more cleaning happens this offseason. But that’s not where I’m going with this. I’m pretty much done with this group and am thinking 4 years out now. Maybe that means Witt and Vinnie are still here, and that’s ok. Keep them by all means. But this trade deadline….I DON’T WANT TO SEE MAJOR LEAGUE READY GUYS BACK. I’m most interesting in A and High A ball right now. Get some guys back that fit into that league. If we get back a Max Castillo for example for Champman I will call for JJ’s job. Hey, I’m a fan, I get to do that. Lol. It’s aggressive, but the point they will suck again next year, get guys that can help in 2-3 years back. Give the coaching the tools to work with these guys as they work up the system. Get as many of them as you can because improvements have been made down there. Any improvement they can make at the major league level is great…..but this was never a major league development issue entirely and will hold JJ to that worst comment he ever made. Lol.
2. I think Pratto has a .400+ BABIP right now. It may have changed. The time might be now to strike and add Pratto into a reliever deal. The strikeouts are too high and the BABIP is not sustainable. He’s played really well, and been really encouraged.
3. Could the Royals get back two top 100 guys for a Vinnie/Chapman or Barlow package? Is that even realistic?
It sucks, to know this is where they are quite honestly. But at this point I’m all in on 26…..anything before that is gravy. I’m kinda done with these guys as far as a collective group being good enough to be competitive. They have time to change my mind..but we are getting close to half way through the evaluation year now. At least everyone knows where this stands I guess. Help me be positive on a Friday!
I think why they said they were looking at guys who are close-ish is that they feel pretty good about the lower levels and need to fill in a gap. That said, if they have a choice between a tooled-out 18-year old in low-A and a maxed-out 25 year-old in AAA who can help next year and maybe be good, take the 18-year old. A lot of what the team says is based on what they've gotten back from other teams to soften blows, so that's the thing that's tough to know. We can call for them to trade everyone, but we have no earthly idea what the offers are. That's not to say we can't critique and love or hate a move. I just think it's important to remember it.
On the Pratto front, yeah, I mentioned the BABIP, but the expected stats are interestingly still very high. I don't hate the idea of moving him, though. I think anything that isn't bolted down should be traded if the return is there.
But I don't know if you're getting multiple top-100 guys from a package involving Vinnie and one of the relievers. I think it's possible, but we have to see how first basemen/DH is valued and know that Chapman is only a rental and Barlow is more than that, but doesn't have the elite stuff. I think if you package them, you can get four prospects, one is in the top 100, one is good and two are kind of wild cards. I'm not sure I'd be against that, though.
Let’s talk Melendez…..cause I don’t think things could have gone worse so far on this player. I called for just moving him to the outfield….so I can’t even complain about it. But even if they wanted to trade him….I don’t think they can right now. He doesn’t fit this team, he doesn’t hit well enough to be a corner outfielder, he doesn’t defend well enough to be a corner outfielder….all of this is RIGHT NOW. Not in the future which is what you are selling. But I think he needs to be a catcher now. And it’s not enough time to evaluate I get it. But this isn’t working with the bat in the corner outfield spot. It will work behind the plate. IDK man, this one is the most frustrating to me. They’ve tried I feel like….its just not working and IDK what they do about it.
I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but think about what you would say if the Royals announce a permanent move to a position a month ago and then move him back a month later. I have a hunch you would lose it over that. He’s certainly struggling, but I think the answer is patience. There’s no other option right now. This is just the situation they’re in right now. And, for what it’s worth, he’s hit .254/.339/.412 since the move. It’s not good enough, but that’s far from the biggest issue.
Oh no, I said it. I’ll own it. That’s why it’s frustrating because IM WRONG. LOL. They have no better options, there is time, but I’m just losing a little hope everyday.
If we want to dig into an actual baseball decision….that doesn’t matter, cause the team and player both suck…but I question. Why is Q letting Lyles go out for the 8th inning? What are we doing here? I guess tanking? Which is fine I guess, and it’s not something to get fired up about but. What is that Q? I don’t care what you paid that guy, he’s a 5-6 inning guy tops. If you were told to lose every game…I guess that makes more sense.
I think that was a mistake. My guess here is that the thought process was the bullpen had been worked hard and he thought he could give two off days in a tow. I don’t like that decision at all, but I at least understand the thought process. I think he’s actually done a really nice job on when to pull a guy, but this was a mistake for sure. I think a bigger conversation is that Lyles has looked pretty solid his last two starts. That could truly be massive if this is the sort of thing Sweeney and Bove and the rest can do.
Here’s the interesting part. And you’re going to hate this because I truly don’t want to go this route cause you’re tired of hearing it I’m sure.
Lyles is a problem. It’s not that much money…..the problem is he sucks and the front office thought he was the best option. I genuinely don’t think this front office can evaluate talent. Nothing in their history of the last 5 years says they can and they have all the same guys. They didn’t do enough to clean house. Plain and simple.
BUT, and a big but. I think JJ hired the right coaches. So that’s a positive and a big part of the job right. So we have a front office that can’t evaluate talent but has hired some of the right people. Half way there….but chances are it’s going to take quite a bit of time even when they get the right people to evaluate the talent to sync up with the people coaching up the talent. It was a half ass job…..last offseason. It has to be finished this offseason.
I’m pretty sure you promised me the gloves would come off at some point this year. I don’t remember the exact details….but I’m expecting that one yet! LOL
Sometimes, it's best to put your frustrations into humor. While limericks are generally considered bawdy and somewhat blue, they can be worked to fit baseball. And believe me, this team gives me plenty of poetic creativity:
Even though they ended up losing by five runs on Wednesday, I was actually mildly relieved that they didn't beat themselves. They were just beaten by a better team--which has happened a lot and will continue to happen a lot--but they have NO chance when they throw to the wrong bases and let ground balls go by them in the in outfield!
They've looked horrendous for the last week after being generally competent for awhile. Maybe it's a blip. Maybe it's a trend. It's not fun, whatever it is.
Pretty sure you jinxed them. Ever since your article on the defensive metrics being off between the two….One looking good for them, one being ehhhhh. They’ve been pretty much terrible from the moment that article came out!
Just a thought on Pratto in the outfield...I wouldn't have considered Alex Gordon fast either (faster than Nick, though, I think). Just smart and someone who worked hard on getting great jumps. Not saying Pratto can be that good but the path is there for him to be a good left fielder. As you said, might as well give him the rest of the year to find out.
Gordon was definitely faster than Pratto when he was younger, but based on sprint speed, Pratto's actually faster than Gordon from 2015 on, which is actually a bit surprising to me. I don't remember him slowing down THAT early, though I suppose the groin tear was in midseason 2015, so maybe that did it.
That surprises me, too. I looked at Pratto's minor league numbers and realized he stole 22 bases in 2018. So I guess he has more speed than I give him credit for.
So I’m just gonna say: I’m over MJ Melendez. We’re 666 ABs into this and he has shown zero progress. He is who he is. A player without a position who can talk a walk and hit the ball hard but for whatever reason just doesn’t translate it into production. Nick Pratto has been a revelation and he was always the one I was highest on. If I was running the Royals I would send Pratto to Alex Gordon boot camp and just make him the every day LF who can spell Vinnie at first. The other one I’m out on is Massey. Again, same production and no noticeable step forward. I know we can make arbitrary endpoints and says he’s improved but his triple slash is the same as a year ago and meh. I say get Samad up and see what he can do. But alas I’m just a dude with phone.
David, you don't owe any apologies for "lack of content." The Royals owe YOU an apology for being so damnably difficult (and probably depressing) to write about. Yet you always manage to find interesting topics and subtopics, which impresses me enormously.
As a young baseball fan I always wondered how unbearable it must have been to be a fan of the 1962 Mets, who won only 40 games in that godforsaken season. I don't have to wonder any longer.
This Royals team is on pace (barely) to win a few more games than that, and they have flirted with abysmal 50-win seasons before (although they would need to improve in order to reach that mark this year) but the 40-win record of that Mets team is still clearly within reach. This just may be the team to get it done.
The "problem" with a team on pace for however many wins at this point is that just about every team has a hot stretch. I did say "just about" which means there's room for exceptions, but there's going to be a point when they win 10 of 17 or something, which is barely considered hot, but if they did that starting tonight, for example, they'd be on a 57-win pace, which would put 40-122 pretty much out of reach. Now the A's...they might do it. A 10-7 stretch starting today for them puts them on just a 48-win pace. That can drop down fast.
David, I don’t blame you at all for not writing much this week. Honestly, this has to be pretty difficult. I don’t want to be negative today, but this is about as low as I’ve ever been on the Royals. Not only has the product been bad on the field, players aren’t quite improving as hoped, but I saw a report the other day that the Royals had exactly zero top 100 prospects. It’s not good no matter how you slice it right now. Couple thoughts today and maybe you can write more about these in the future.
1. I’ve expressed my thoughts on the front office. I sure hope A WHOLE lot more cleaning happens this offseason. But that’s not where I’m going with this. I’m pretty much done with this group and am thinking 4 years out now. Maybe that means Witt and Vinnie are still here, and that’s ok. Keep them by all means. But this trade deadline….I DON’T WANT TO SEE MAJOR LEAGUE READY GUYS BACK. I’m most interesting in A and High A ball right now. Get some guys back that fit into that league. If we get back a Max Castillo for example for Champman I will call for JJ’s job. Hey, I’m a fan, I get to do that. Lol. It’s aggressive, but the point they will suck again next year, get guys that can help in 2-3 years back. Give the coaching the tools to work with these guys as they work up the system. Get as many of them as you can because improvements have been made down there. Any improvement they can make at the major league level is great…..but this was never a major league development issue entirely and will hold JJ to that worst comment he ever made. Lol.
2. I think Pratto has a .400+ BABIP right now. It may have changed. The time might be now to strike and add Pratto into a reliever deal. The strikeouts are too high and the BABIP is not sustainable. He’s played really well, and been really encouraged.
3. Could the Royals get back two top 100 guys for a Vinnie/Chapman or Barlow package? Is that even realistic?
It sucks, to know this is where they are quite honestly. But at this point I’m all in on 26…..anything before that is gravy. I’m kinda done with these guys as far as a collective group being good enough to be competitive. They have time to change my mind..but we are getting close to half way through the evaluation year now. At least everyone knows where this stands I guess. Help me be positive on a Friday!
I think why they said they were looking at guys who are close-ish is that they feel pretty good about the lower levels and need to fill in a gap. That said, if they have a choice between a tooled-out 18-year old in low-A and a maxed-out 25 year-old in AAA who can help next year and maybe be good, take the 18-year old. A lot of what the team says is based on what they've gotten back from other teams to soften blows, so that's the thing that's tough to know. We can call for them to trade everyone, but we have no earthly idea what the offers are. That's not to say we can't critique and love or hate a move. I just think it's important to remember it.
On the Pratto front, yeah, I mentioned the BABIP, but the expected stats are interestingly still very high. I don't hate the idea of moving him, though. I think anything that isn't bolted down should be traded if the return is there.
But I don't know if you're getting multiple top-100 guys from a package involving Vinnie and one of the relievers. I think it's possible, but we have to see how first basemen/DH is valued and know that Chapman is only a rental and Barlow is more than that, but doesn't have the elite stuff. I think if you package them, you can get four prospects, one is in the top 100, one is good and two are kind of wild cards. I'm not sure I'd be against that, though.
Let’s talk Melendez…..cause I don’t think things could have gone worse so far on this player. I called for just moving him to the outfield….so I can’t even complain about it. But even if they wanted to trade him….I don’t think they can right now. He doesn’t fit this team, he doesn’t hit well enough to be a corner outfielder, he doesn’t defend well enough to be a corner outfielder….all of this is RIGHT NOW. Not in the future which is what you are selling. But I think he needs to be a catcher now. And it’s not enough time to evaluate I get it. But this isn’t working with the bat in the corner outfield spot. It will work behind the plate. IDK man, this one is the most frustrating to me. They’ve tried I feel like….its just not working and IDK what they do about it.
I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but think about what you would say if the Royals announce a permanent move to a position a month ago and then move him back a month later. I have a hunch you would lose it over that. He’s certainly struggling, but I think the answer is patience. There’s no other option right now. This is just the situation they’re in right now. And, for what it’s worth, he’s hit .254/.339/.412 since the move. It’s not good enough, but that’s far from the biggest issue.
Oh no, I said it. I’ll own it. That’s why it’s frustrating because IM WRONG. LOL. They have no better options, there is time, but I’m just losing a little hope everyday.
If we want to dig into an actual baseball decision….that doesn’t matter, cause the team and player both suck…but I question. Why is Q letting Lyles go out for the 8th inning? What are we doing here? I guess tanking? Which is fine I guess, and it’s not something to get fired up about but. What is that Q? I don’t care what you paid that guy, he’s a 5-6 inning guy tops. If you were told to lose every game…I guess that makes more sense.
I think that was a mistake. My guess here is that the thought process was the bullpen had been worked hard and he thought he could give two off days in a tow. I don’t like that decision at all, but I at least understand the thought process. I think he’s actually done a really nice job on when to pull a guy, but this was a mistake for sure. I think a bigger conversation is that Lyles has looked pretty solid his last two starts. That could truly be massive if this is the sort of thing Sweeney and Bove and the rest can do.
Here’s the interesting part. And you’re going to hate this because I truly don’t want to go this route cause you’re tired of hearing it I’m sure.
Lyles is a problem. It’s not that much money…..the problem is he sucks and the front office thought he was the best option. I genuinely don’t think this front office can evaluate talent. Nothing in their history of the last 5 years says they can and they have all the same guys. They didn’t do enough to clean house. Plain and simple.
BUT, and a big but. I think JJ hired the right coaches. So that’s a positive and a big part of the job right. So we have a front office that can’t evaluate talent but has hired some of the right people. Half way there….but chances are it’s going to take quite a bit of time even when they get the right people to evaluate the talent to sync up with the people coaching up the talent. It was a half ass job…..last offseason. It has to be finished this offseason.
I’m pretty sure you promised me the gloves would come off at some point this year. I don’t remember the exact details….but I’m expecting that one yet! LOL
Sometimes, it's best to put your frustrations into humor. While limericks are generally considered bawdy and somewhat blue, they can be worked to fit baseball. And believe me, this team gives me plenty of poetic creativity:
"The record's eighteen and forty-four
And they still must play one hundred more;
The pipeline is fallow
Fan's hopes have run shallow;
Arguing who should be shown the door."
oops..."Fans'"
Even though they ended up losing by five runs on Wednesday, I was actually mildly relieved that they didn't beat themselves. They were just beaten by a better team--which has happened a lot and will continue to happen a lot--but they have NO chance when they throw to the wrong bases and let ground balls go by them in the in outfield!
Of course, Olivares did both of those things on the SAME PLAY Tuesday.
This may just be me….but can we not all be done with Olivares now? I genuinely don’t want to watch him play defense anymore….it hurts my eyes.
They've looked horrendous for the last week after being generally competent for awhile. Maybe it's a blip. Maybe it's a trend. It's not fun, whatever it is.
Pretty sure you jinxed them. Ever since your article on the defensive metrics being off between the two….One looking good for them, one being ehhhhh. They’ve been pretty much terrible from the moment that article came out!
Maybe they just wanted to make me less confused.
Just a thought on Pratto in the outfield...I wouldn't have considered Alex Gordon fast either (faster than Nick, though, I think). Just smart and someone who worked hard on getting great jumps. Not saying Pratto can be that good but the path is there for him to be a good left fielder. As you said, might as well give him the rest of the year to find out.
Gordon was definitely faster than Pratto when he was younger, but based on sprint speed, Pratto's actually faster than Gordon from 2015 on, which is actually a bit surprising to me. I don't remember him slowing down THAT early, though I suppose the groin tear was in midseason 2015, so maybe that did it.
That surprises me, too. I looked at Pratto's minor league numbers and realized he stole 22 bases in 2018. So I guess he has more speed than I give him credit for.
I think we picture him rounding third in quicksand a few weeks ago and that's the lasting image haha.
So I’m just gonna say: I’m over MJ Melendez. We’re 666 ABs into this and he has shown zero progress. He is who he is. A player without a position who can talk a walk and hit the ball hard but for whatever reason just doesn’t translate it into production. Nick Pratto has been a revelation and he was always the one I was highest on. If I was running the Royals I would send Pratto to Alex Gordon boot camp and just make him the every day LF who can spell Vinnie at first. The other one I’m out on is Massey. Again, same production and no noticeable step forward. I know we can make arbitrary endpoints and says he’s improved but his triple slash is the same as a year ago and meh. I say get Samad up and see what he can do. But alas I’m just a dude with phone.