Crown Jewels: Trading for a Bat, Giving up a Draft Pick and Whiffing on Strikes

The rumor mill will heat up soon enough for the Royals. Until then, we'll stoke some flames here.

Is everyone ready for a week of rumors and actual news too? The Winter Meetings start next week, and while I had hoped to be there this year, that dream will have to wait a little longer. Hey, I have a family here to think about! But I’ll be following along maybe even closer than if I was actually in the teeth of it. That may be an incredibly silly way to look at it and make myself feel better, but it’s working so let me have this. All I can tell you is that I’m incredibly excited that we’ll have something resembling real news (or more) soon enough. I don’t know that I can go through another day or two of whether or not Maikel Garcia had Royals mentions on his social media that he’s removed.

It does sound like the Juan Soto sweepstakes are coming to a close soon enough. I’ve seen some reports he wants to pick his team before the meetings start while others have indicated he’d have an answer by the end of them. Either way, we’re close, and that’s a good thing. I don’t mind one player holding up the market if he’s willing to make his decision in a timely manner and getting it done within a month of free agency starting and sorting through multiple offers of numbers way closer to $1 billion than I’ll ever see is fine by me. My guess is once the Soto domino falls, we’ll see a pretty hectic dash at the meetings. It’s kind of interesting that we’re already starting to see movement, which could mean teams know they’re out on Soto or they’ve decided to just keep the ball rolling either way. I’m ready for some action.

The Elusive Middle-of-the-Order Bat

It wasn’t very long ago that JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro sat in front of media and talked about the season that was and the offseason that would soon be. They highlighted their offseason plans and the big point that came out of it was the desire for a leadoff hitter and a bat to (likely) slot behind Salvador Perez in the lineup. Well, they got their leadoff hitter when they acquired Jonathan India, so the next logical move is that of the middle-of-the-order bat.

I’m not entirely sure why it as a big piece of news, but some of the national reporters were discussing this week that the Royals are, indeed, looking for a bat for the middle of their lineup. I suppose the news is that the reports say they’re looking for that bat via trade rather than free agency. Is that because of the price of free agents? Maybe. I always thought it was more likely they’d try to make a trade for a power bat. If you’re looking at hitters who would be good for 45+ extra base hits, there really aren’t that many free agents who have done it in the last two seasons. The ones with multiple such seasons almost all have a qualifying offer with the exception of Paul Goldschmidt and Bryan De La Cruz.

I don’t think the Royals have a big need for Goldschmidt and De La Cruz has some power, but I think his extra base hits stem from availability more than ability. He hit .245/.287/.397 the last two seasons with poor outfield defense. The Royals are already paying Hunter Renfroe. But if you look at third basemen, shortstops (who could play third), outfielders and designated hitters who did it in 2024, you see a longer list of players who the Royals could go after to supplement the middle of their lineup. Not all will be available via trade of course, but there are a few names who could make varying levels of sense. I don’t love all of these, but here are some of the options:

Wilyer Abreu
JJ Bleday
Alec Bohm
Jake Burger
Brendan Donovan
Adolis Garcia
Ryan McMahon
Eugenio Suarez
Seiya Suzuki
Taylor Ward

First, that doesn’t encompass every target. This is just a list of players who had 45 or more extra base hits in 2024 who I think could be traded and make sense positionally for the Royals. Second, Suzuki on that list is interesting. I didn’t believe the Cubs would be willing to move him, but a report surfaced from Joel Sherman that Bleacher Nation relayed on social media saying they were determined to move Cody Bellinger or Suzuki. I’m not sure if it’s true, but Suzuki hit .283/.366/.482 in 2024. He hit .285/.357/.485 in 2023. This looks like it’s his level. He’s not a good defender, but can you imagine that bat hitting in the middle of the Royals lineup? I’d be in.

The issue, of course, is how do they get any of these guys? Abreu, for example, is first on the list because of his last name coming first alphabetically, but he’s more likely to be a part of a blockbuster for Garret Crochet than a deal coming to the Royals. Still, I think the Royals would love a Gold Glove-caliber young outfielder who can hit. They’ve been connected heavily to Bohm. There were reports the Phillies asked for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby from the Mariners, so that’s a pass if that’s really what they’re seeking. They also won’t get that for a solid, but not great player.

I think the two best bets for the Royals to acquire are Garcia or Suarez, to be honest. Garcia is especially interesting because he’s one year removed from a really solid season on all fronts. He hit 39 homers, played solid defense and even walked some in 2023. A lot of things fell back in 2024 with his defense being the biggest issue. His bat wasn’t great either, but he finished okay enough, though still with a low OBP. I don’t know. The Rangers seem to be cutting payroll and he’s due over $9 million in 2025 plus has another arbitration season after that. I could see Garcia being worth a shot at 32 to bounce back to his 2021-2023 form when he hit .246/.305/.472.

Then there’s Suarez, who was probably pretty close to a DFA by the Diamondbacks in the middle of the season and then .307/.341/.602 after the break. He plays solid defense. He even cut his strikeout rate a fair amount in that second half. They picked up his $15 million option. It’s not that he’ll come cheap, but he’ll be a free agent after the season, so he only has so much value. I know the Royals have liked him in the past, though I don’t know how much they’ve liked him, so take that with at least a small grain of salt. I think it could make sense.

But again, the issue is what they give up. There really isn’t much left on the big league roster that has a ton of value who they’d also be willing to trade. Michael Massey became at least a name to watch after acquiring Jonathan India. they also have mentioned Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV and Alec Marsh as potential trade candidates, though I don’t know how true that is anymore with Brady Singer gone. And then the prospect pool is somewhat thin in tradeable players. There is nobody in the system I wouldn’t trade other than Jac Caglianone. I say that with the caveat that I would only trade one of Blake Mitchell or Carter Jensen, so I guess there is a second untouchable. I just don’t care who it is between those two. Mitchell could headline a trade, but I’m not sure there’s a player he’s worth headlining a trade for at this point. You can see where it gets tricky.

For my money, I’d just see what it would take to sign Michael Conforto and call it a day, but if they’re going to make a trade, there’s some interesting situations to navigate around to do it.

The Qualifying Offer Complicates Matters

When the lockout ended ahead of the 2022 season, there was some hope that the qualifying offer would no longer be a thing. But when other negotiations fell through, it was back at least through the current iteration (which is up after 2026, yay, we get to do it again!). So it’s still there. If the Royals were to sign a player who received a qualifying offer, they would give up their third-highest draft pick. We don’t know the final draft order just yet, but the Royals will have their first pick at pick number 23. Then their second pick will be after the first round at some point. That comes from Bobby Witt Jr. finishing second in the MVP voting.

We don’t know where their second-round pick will be just yet. It was announced last night that there ware seven picks in Comp Round A, which the Royals won’t pick in (they’re the fourth pick in Comp Round B after the second round). Then there are four teams can receive draft compensation after the first round for their qualifying offer free agents that sign for $50 million or more. But a few teams can lose their second pick for signing players with a qualifying offer. That means their second round pick comes around pick 65 without any movement, but could jump up a few slots. Let’s call it pick 60. I may be off, but it’s close enough for these purposes.

Last year, the 60th pick carried a slot value of $1,453,700. Doing some very dirty math and calling that $1.5 million in 2025 (we’ll know slot values soon enough, but, again, it doesn’t matter that much for this point), that adds up to about 12 percent of the Royals 2025 draft pool. There were 13 free agents given a qualifying offer. Nick Martinez accepted and Luis Severino has signed (with the A’s of all teams). That leaves 11 - Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernandez, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Anthony Santander, Soto and Christian Walker.

How many of those are realistic targets for the Royals? I’d love for them to be on Fried, but they’re not. I think Adames at third base would be a brilliant fit. But it doesn’t seem like they’re on it. I’ve scanned the reports of $600 million offers to Soto and I haven’t seen the Royals mentioned. I also think Bregman makes sense on the field and so does Hernandez and Santander. There was a report that Hernandez was close to signing back with the Dodgers, which is where he wanted to be all along, so that seems out. Santander is very interesting, but has a lot of flaws to his game. Is he worth $20 million a year for four or five years for a player in his 30s? Maybe. Is he worth that plus the 60thish overall pick? Still maybe.

Manaea is getting PAID after what he did in the second half and what Severino got. I’d pay him because it’s not my money, but I don’t get the sense the Royals will do that. Pivetta is kind of all upside still, which is a bit terrifying to sign him and give up that pick for a 32 year old who hasn’t put it all together yet. Alonso and Walker don’t make sense for the Royals. I’d avoid Burnes if I was any team. I think that contract is going to age poorly.

I think in a weird way, Witt getting that pick for the MVP votes made the Royals less likely to go get a guy like Santander or Manaea. I’m not entirely sure how like they were from the start, but it does add another layer of intrigue there. I hate the QO system. Of course, I say that and they’ve been willing to trade their Comp A pick the last two times they’ve had it. First, they acquired Drew Waters (and two others) with it and then used it in the Hunter Harvey deal this past season. So they’ve been willing to trade the pick for the player. Maybe I’m overthinking it, but I do think it plays a role here.

In-Zone Whiffing

I’ve gone pretty long in today’s newsletter, so I wanted to share a stat that I sort of stumbled across in looking for some idea of topics. One stat that can be really interesting to follow is how many swings and misses pitchers get on pitches inside the strike zone. Why that matters is that it indicates a couple of things. The first is good stuff. If you can get a hitter to whiff on a pitch they should theoretically be able to hit, that’s a good sign generally. The second is that it often means good command because hitters aren’t often whiffing on meatballs. It’s a very good trait to be able to get whiffs in the strike zone.

The Royals didn’t do that very well in 2024. They had one of the better pitching staffs in baseball last season, but this is one area that I’d like to see them target in any acquisitions. They finished 22nd in a percentage of pitches in the zone that hitters whiffed on. Zoom in a little bit more and they were 25th on whiff percentage on pitches in the heart of the plate. The Twins were actually the top of both lists. I will say that they were 14th in the shadow zone but still a strike, so there was that at least.

Among pitchers with at least 150 swings on pitches in the zone, only Cole Ragans and Bubic got whiffs on at least 20 percent of those swings. Ragans actually had the 29th-highest rate in baseball while Bubic was 52nd out of 492. Carlos Hernandez and Nick Anderson were close to the 20 percent mark. Sam Long, Lynch and Michael Wacha were all around the league average or a touch higher. So they’ve got some pieces to work with. But looking at this list gives me some better ideas of who I’d love to see the Royals go after for their pitching staff.

Kirby Yates went from a guy who I’d be interested in to someone who I think the Royals must have in the back of their bullpen. He got whiffs on two out of every seven swings on pitches in the zone. Tanner Scott remains high on a lot of lists, and this one is no different. There are others, though, who might surprise you. Matt Moore rated very well here in a rough season. Carlos Estevez did well too. I’d still be interested in him. Jeff Hoffman seems like he wants to start, and the fact that he can get whiffs in-zone might make me believe he can do it more.

It’s not a hard and fast rule that in-zone whiffs mean a pitcher is good, but it’s something that the Royals lack quite a bit. The ability to throw a strike and not get hurt is a pretty useful tool for a pitcher. More guys who don’t need to elicit chases to get those strikes is always a good thing.