"There is nobody in the system I wouldn’t trade other than Jac Caglianone."
100%. If I were in the FO, I'd happily trade most prospects for proven players—This should be a mantra across the league and you can see which teams do it and how they succeed.
Having a shallow system makes things tough because you absolutely need prospects to ultimately succeed. It’s tougher to give away the handful of potential impact ones you have. It’s easier when you have more to trade. But because the system isn’t producing (yet), they need to go out and supplement and one of the ways to do that is to trade from the system, but there isn’t much to trade and blah blah blah. So it ends up just cycling.
I must admit I was unfamiliar with Seiya Suzuki's game. That baseball savant page has me sold. Though after looking at their roster I don't see an obvious trade package fit. They don't need Maikel or Massey (though I remain hopeful he stays). Otherwise I agree with you and would rather pay Conforto.
Soto needs to hurry up and sign this deal with the Mets. Then it gets fun.
On the Cubs front in terms of matching up, it depends on what their goal is in trading one of these guys. They don't have a lot of catching help on the way, so Mitchell or Jensen could make a lot of sense to them. I'm not sure I'd trade Mitchell for two years of Suzuki and I'm actually not sure I'd trade Jensen for that either. I'm not sure I wouldn't either, but it would get me thinking. But if they want someone right now, yeah, I don't see how they match up.
I’d try and keep Jensen/Mitchell for Suzuki. Look I love his .340/.350 obp floor. Maybe they would take a Cross/Wolters or some sort of package like that. Problem being….other teams might be able to give up more. Which is a problem the Royals run into with the system yet. Maybe it’s a fair trade in that I’m hesitant to give up Jensen for two years of Suzuki as well. Who knows.
I am also all aboard the Conforto train. Considering how good he's been and how much he'd cost, I think he'd probably be the perfect fit for KC. But what do I know?
I'm not sure who I'd be more OK with seeing go, Jensen or Mitchell. I feel like Mitchell might have a higher ceiling and could be something really special, but Jensen probably has a higher floor and could still end up being something special himself. I really wish they could figure out a way to move one of them to another position and get that to stick. If Jensen could move to the corner OF or 3B and keep the kind of steady bat he's had . . . I dunno. I like Susuki a lot, but he'd be pretty short term. I need to stop letting myself get so attached to prospects. It's a weakness.
Your first point is very interesting to me. I've had scouts from teams tell me the same thing. They don't know which to value more. A couple have gotten the sense that the Royals are willing to move one of them in the right deal, though I'm not sure if that's actually the case. But yeah, right now, you probably have a lower ceiling but a player who you feel more confident can make some impact in the big leagues in Jensen and a guy who could be a superstar, but might not ever get there. Best I can tell, some teams prefer one and some teams prefer the other, but nobody would turn down having either.
I think back to a Dayton Moore speaking engagement (and I've written this before) where he said "prospects prospects prospects will get you fired fired fired." That's stuck with me for nearly a decade. Prospects are important, but moving the right ones and keeping the right ones is the most important thing you can do. Easier said than done.
This is a pretty typically paced offseason. The Royals have been a part of two of the bigger deals we've seen so far. It's just a long offseason for like 4-7 moves per team.
I agree with paying someone verses the trade options, maybe JJ is bluffing. The only way I could see it working is if the trade involved taking on an inflated salary, but even there I don't see a good option.
I like Conforto, but having to pay a 32 yo $51 for a few seasons makes me want to pass there too. I am going with both Austin Hays (1 for $10.8) and Max Kepler (3 for $31) and let them platoon with MJ and Renfroe. I am sure there are plenty of reasons to not do this, but if one pans out I could live with it, and if both panned out - look out.
Solid idea to get a guy who gets whiffs, didn't know much about Hoffman but looks intriguing
Got Hays and Kepler #s from Spotrac, but was going off your guesstimate for Conforto in your hitters article (yes I occasionally refer back to this to see who might make sense - subscription is well worth the fee!). Now seeing Spotrac is market valuing him at 1 year for $4.7, which sounds good to me but probably under?.
Have no idea what guys are worth or if Spotrac is anywhere close - this is first year I have ever gone so deep into offseason dreamdive. I have been tempted by the wormhole thinking they could very well be a serious force if they can get an OF who can hit and a serviceable 4/5 starter.
I feel like Spotrac is all over the place. I had mentioned 3/51 for Conforto based on this year’s deal, but a couple of people told me that they don’t think he gets that. Maybe 17 for a year but probably more like 2/28 or 3/39 if it goes that long. Of course, it only takes one team to give out the bigger deal.
FWIW, the MLB Trade Rumors prediction on Conforto was 2 years/$18MM. He was #32 on their Top 50 Free Agent prediction list, and 1 of their 4 predicting writers had him coming here.
It's crazy in looking at the top Wiff Rate guys that the Royals best Wiff guys are primarily starters whereas it's a lot of bullpen guys across the league (which makes sense). This makes a lot of sense why the Royals bullpen was such a mess for 1/2 the season.
Would love to trade for McMahon AND Bellinger. Have to assume Renfroe, Stratton, and Harvey would be sent out for payroll purposes, but who else would go? Cubs want more “win now” pieces, so does Massey help the cubbies enough to build a package around? Rockies building for maybe two to three years from now, so maybe a package centered around Marsh and prospects? Who slots as the 5th starter in that scenario, bc banking on Wright or Cameron seems dicey and pretty sure ship has sailed on Lynch in a starter role. How much, if any, money would be left to spend on the bullpen at that point? Do the Royals try to throw their entire bonus pool at Sasaki? Do they already have handshake deals for those $s to other international prospects?
I want absolutely nothing to do with McMahon. He's never once even been a league average hitter. He's a very good defender, sure, but there's just no reason to pay a guy $44 million over the next three years to be a below average hitter. I also can't imagine Marsh in Coors Field. We'd be talking home run record with him.
Bellinger is also crazy expensive for what he provides. You're either paying $32.5 million for a good season or $52.5 million for two years if he's not good in 2025. He's a solid player and he'd be an improvement over what they have, but at what cost?
I just don't see either happening and I'm kind of glad about it. As for Sasaki, they've got a lot of deals in place that I don't see them breaking to go after Sasaki because I just think it's unlikely that he chooses the Royals. It's not impossible, just unlikely.
"There is nobody in the system I wouldn’t trade other than Jac Caglianone."
100%. If I were in the FO, I'd happily trade most prospects for proven players—This should be a mantra across the league and you can see which teams do it and how they succeed.
Having a shallow system makes things tough because you absolutely need prospects to ultimately succeed. It’s tougher to give away the handful of potential impact ones you have. It’s easier when you have more to trade. But because the system isn’t producing (yet), they need to go out and supplement and one of the ways to do that is to trade from the system, but there isn’t much to trade and blah blah blah. So it ends up just cycling.
I must admit I was unfamiliar with Seiya Suzuki's game. That baseball savant page has me sold. Though after looking at their roster I don't see an obvious trade package fit. They don't need Maikel or Massey (though I remain hopeful he stays). Otherwise I agree with you and would rather pay Conforto.
Soto needs to hurry up and sign this deal with the Mets. Then it gets fun.
On the Cubs front in terms of matching up, it depends on what their goal is in trading one of these guys. They don't have a lot of catching help on the way, so Mitchell or Jensen could make a lot of sense to them. I'm not sure I'd trade Mitchell for two years of Suzuki and I'm actually not sure I'd trade Jensen for that either. I'm not sure I wouldn't either, but it would get me thinking. But if they want someone right now, yeah, I don't see how they match up.
I’d try and keep Jensen/Mitchell for Suzuki. Look I love his .340/.350 obp floor. Maybe they would take a Cross/Wolters or some sort of package like that. Problem being….other teams might be able to give up more. Which is a problem the Royals run into with the system yet. Maybe it’s a fair trade in that I’m hesitant to give up Jensen for two years of Suzuki as well. Who knows.
I am also all aboard the Conforto train. Considering how good he's been and how much he'd cost, I think he'd probably be the perfect fit for KC. But what do I know?
He'd be a perfect fit right behind Salvy. I love the idea, but he's a nice fit for a lot of teams, so that does play into it.
I'm not sure who I'd be more OK with seeing go, Jensen or Mitchell. I feel like Mitchell might have a higher ceiling and could be something really special, but Jensen probably has a higher floor and could still end up being something special himself. I really wish they could figure out a way to move one of them to another position and get that to stick. If Jensen could move to the corner OF or 3B and keep the kind of steady bat he's had . . . I dunno. I like Susuki a lot, but he'd be pretty short term. I need to stop letting myself get so attached to prospects. It's a weakness.
Your first point is very interesting to me. I've had scouts from teams tell me the same thing. They don't know which to value more. A couple have gotten the sense that the Royals are willing to move one of them in the right deal, though I'm not sure if that's actually the case. But yeah, right now, you probably have a lower ceiling but a player who you feel more confident can make some impact in the big leagues in Jensen and a guy who could be a superstar, but might not ever get there. Best I can tell, some teams prefer one and some teams prefer the other, but nobody would turn down having either.
I think back to a Dayton Moore speaking engagement (and I've written this before) where he said "prospects prospects prospects will get you fired fired fired." That's stuck with me for nearly a decade. Prospects are important, but moving the right ones and keeping the right ones is the most important thing you can do. Easier said than done.
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m looking forward to Q explaining why he’s platooning Soto and Renfroe in right field next season.
I think it’s obvious. Veteran leadership!
So obvious but brilliant!
It is crazy how slooowwww the offseason feels when no movement is happening for fans to get excited (or mad) about!!
This is a pretty typically paced offseason. The Royals have been a part of two of the bigger deals we've seen so far. It's just a long offseason for like 4-7 moves per team.
True. I Watch them closer now though because I believe they will be making moves to get excited about. Before, not so much.
I agree with paying someone verses the trade options, maybe JJ is bluffing. The only way I could see it working is if the trade involved taking on an inflated salary, but even there I don't see a good option.
I like Conforto, but having to pay a 32 yo $51 for a few seasons makes me want to pass there too. I am going with both Austin Hays (1 for $10.8) and Max Kepler (3 for $31) and let them platoon with MJ and Renfroe. I am sure there are plenty of reasons to not do this, but if one pans out I could live with it, and if both panned out - look out.
Solid idea to get a guy who gets whiffs, didn't know much about Hoffman but looks intriguing
I'm not sure where those dollar figures are coming from, but I'd bet the under on all of them.
Got Hays and Kepler #s from Spotrac, but was going off your guesstimate for Conforto in your hitters article (yes I occasionally refer back to this to see who might make sense - subscription is well worth the fee!). Now seeing Spotrac is market valuing him at 1 year for $4.7, which sounds good to me but probably under?.
Have no idea what guys are worth or if Spotrac is anywhere close - this is first year I have ever gone so deep into offseason dreamdive. I have been tempted by the wormhole thinking they could very well be a serious force if they can get an OF who can hit and a serviceable 4/5 starter.
I feel like Spotrac is all over the place. I had mentioned 3/51 for Conforto based on this year’s deal, but a couple of people told me that they don’t think he gets that. Maybe 17 for a year but probably more like 2/28 or 3/39 if it goes that long. Of course, it only takes one team to give out the bigger deal.
FWIW, the MLB Trade Rumors prediction on Conforto was 2 years/$18MM. He was #32 on their Top 50 Free Agent prediction list, and 1 of their 4 predicting writers had him coming here.
It's crazy in looking at the top Wiff Rate guys that the Royals best Wiff guys are primarily starters whereas it's a lot of bullpen guys across the league (which makes sense). This makes a lot of sense why the Royals bullpen was such a mess for 1/2 the season.
I'd love to see another Nebraskan play 3B for the Royals.
I think Bohm would be a nice addition but I’d be wary of paying a price that it seems like they’re asking. He’s a lot more solid than good.
Would love to trade for McMahon AND Bellinger. Have to assume Renfroe, Stratton, and Harvey would be sent out for payroll purposes, but who else would go? Cubs want more “win now” pieces, so does Massey help the cubbies enough to build a package around? Rockies building for maybe two to three years from now, so maybe a package centered around Marsh and prospects? Who slots as the 5th starter in that scenario, bc banking on Wright or Cameron seems dicey and pretty sure ship has sailed on Lynch in a starter role. How much, if any, money would be left to spend on the bullpen at that point? Do the Royals try to throw their entire bonus pool at Sasaki? Do they already have handshake deals for those $s to other international prospects?
I want absolutely nothing to do with McMahon. He's never once even been a league average hitter. He's a very good defender, sure, but there's just no reason to pay a guy $44 million over the next three years to be a below average hitter. I also can't imagine Marsh in Coors Field. We'd be talking home run record with him.
Bellinger is also crazy expensive for what he provides. You're either paying $32.5 million for a good season or $52.5 million for two years if he's not good in 2025. He's a solid player and he'd be an improvement over what they have, but at what cost?
I just don't see either happening and I'm kind of glad about it. As for Sasaki, they've got a lot of deals in place that I don't see them breaking to go after Sasaki because I just think it's unlikely that he chooses the Royals. It's not impossible, just unlikely.
Ouch, man. Ouch. 😂 I was right there in the Maikel Garcia conspiracy theories.