How much of Bellinger’s 2025 money would the Cubs have to eat for him to be a realistic option for someone? Let’s say it’s $10M, what would it take in terms of prospects? The risk is $25M player option in 2026 but If he repeats his 2024 he’ll opt out with only a year remaining right? Doesn’t seem as crazy as I first thought but that $10M from the cubs to get his contract down to $17M this year might be optimistic
I've thought about that a lot myself. You have to keep in mind the $5 million buyout too. So he's owed $32.5 million if he opts out or $52.5 million for two years. That's a lot of money for a guy with some iffy batted ball metrics. But he could really help too. It's such a tough contract to acquire because of all of that. So if they eat $10 million, I would think it would still be relatively cheap prospect-wise. I'm not sure I'd do it for that cost anyway, though I guess it's not my money.
Hey Lesky - Good work as per usual. I didn't see Profar in your mentions, which is weird as it seems he's always linked to us in the post season. He's definitely my preferred target. He hits for average, has pop, can run and is a solid fielder - is the price too high for us?
I want nothing to do with Profar at the cost he's going to run. This past year seems like the outlier in a big way. He hit .239/.327/.366 the last three years before 2024 with 28 homers total. I'd also push back on the defense part. He's rated really poorly defensively for awhile. And even the speed has been down for a few years. Some team is going to give him 3/45 and I have a feeling they might regret that by like July.
He did. Had to sign that deal because of how bad he was for years before it. It was a great season, but someone is going to drastically overpay for it.
Great article. Like many royals I was stunned to hear royals check in on Soto however more I thought about it i remember saying with new ownership in expect things we never had before. More i think about it i agree with ya on the deferred money, and at same time I think Sherman thinking could be when new stadium and district (whatever that be like) he plans on using that i believe he said on along.
Oh they'll definitely spend. We've already seen them give a massive deal to Bobby. But I think if you check in with Soto and walk away thinking he's out of your range, then you had something creative in mind because you don't need to call Boras to know what Soto is looking for.
There are so many bullpen spots that there may or may not be room on the big league roster. But being out of options means moving him in the offseason *probably* nets more than in spring training when teams might know he could easily be available for free. I don't think they have to move him, but I think they will. They'll get some upside for him.
I think it’s just you. The guy does everything well, is a hard worker and has the pedigree to continue to do this for many years to come. Sure, anything can happen, but if he turns into a pumpkin, nobody will ever be able to be counted on again.
Ha good to know. I tend to drift into the “we cant have nice things” camp recently, but i was definitely posting he was going to be a great ss last spring when many still stuck on 3b
I know there are a thousand variables to this question, but how much do you think we’ll give one bat? I feel like we’re spending on starting pitching, BWJ and we’ve already got Salvy. I don’t see any “big”money deals for other position players - as in $25M/year or more. I could see $10M/yr for an experienced player to make an impact. BC I do think they will want to try and keep Vinnie for awhile, maybe Massey or another INF.
I don't think they'll spend $25 million on a bat, but they also never have other than Bobby and he won't above $20 million until 2028. I don't think they're going to spend significantly on starting pitching at this point. If they don't trade Singer, they'll probably bring in more of a Lorenzen type and if they do trade Singer, that clears about $9 million so they'd only be adding $10-$12 million even if they do spend big on that. They're more likely to give big money to a bat if they do.
Yes, I misspoke about the pitching. I know that’s where they put their emphasis last season and keeping Wacha. Why can’t you read my mind by now David?! Lol
I was just pondering what their long term strategy will be in building this team. I have a good feel for it very short term bc it’s obvious where we need help. But how they spend their money this season may show the thinking long term ie a 2 year bat, or a 3-5 year bat, etc.
The plan is to attack the middle tier of free agency until they can start filling in more from the system. I think there might be a player or two who fits that long-term strategy along the way, but you’ll likely see 1-3 year deals until the system is there. Hopefully it’s close.
Would love to see him be flexible at positions, but saw bbsavant ranked him well below average on arm strength. Is that just a lack of data bc he has always been 2b? Or can i throw as far as he does
No, his arm stinks. There are plenty of long throws a second baseman still has to make. I just don't see it working at third for him. I suppose there have been plenty of good left fielders with poor arms, but he's never played there, so you can't expect it to work for him.
It’s the time of year where everyone says they can play multiple positions. India’s not playing anywhere but second with his arm. Lol.
The more I sit on this one though the better I feel about it. Can’t wait to hear your opinion on it David next week. India is an upgrade. A lot of people like Massey….and I think there is more there….but he just doesn’t do what they are looking for. I think it puts Garcia on notice as well. Maybe those two can split the hot corner. I’d be ok with that. IDK. But if those two can’t get on base at a better clip next year. It’s later gator. The mandate it out. And you’re going to say it has been…lol….and you’re right. But they are following through these days. Love it.
Like I wrote on Monday, it’s a big upgrade in the leadoff spot but I feel like they filled a spot on the diamond that wasn’t a hole and created another hole to do it. In a vacuum, solid trade in terms of value but the real analysis can’t really come until we see the whole offseason puzzle.
Hearing that the Royals are kicking the tires on players like India and Hoerner, what do you think that means for Michael Massey? Part of a trade? Moved to utility (not sure how that would work since he only plays 2B so far in the majors).
I like hearing we are also linked to Bohm, Arrenado (not so much), Suarez, and Bichette (is he willing to switch positions?) Does that mean we could also be checking in on Bregman?
I really like Carlos Hernandez but he clearly has yet to truly establish himself as a consistent reliever. Being out of options, I can see where he would be traded. I understand the roster flexibility of relievers with options to shuttle up and down during the season to keep fresh arms in the pen. I really like that approach and just wish Carlos would have done more to deserve a bullpen spot.
They’re more than kicking the tires on India now. He’s a Royal. I don’t know what it means for Massey. JJ mentioned he might get a shot in left but we have no idea what he can do out there since he’s never done it.
Maybe it’s just me trying to read too much. But it seems pretty clear they don’t think Massey will be able to play 150 games. I’m fine with India. I think it will help a lot actually from the lead off position in front of BWJ. I don’t love it, but I’m fine with it. Wish they could have gotten more with the one big bullet they had. But it’s fine.
I don’t really see India in the outfield. I don’t really see him anywhere other than second with the arm strength. But I’m not a scout, so who knows. Don’t know what it means for Massey, but it can’t be great. They didn’t trade for India not to play him.
Maybe never? Just want to point out that the playoff series had no factor because voting is done before the playoffs. But yeah, I don’t know what more they could do.
I go back and forth a lot, but I’m currently of the mindset that if you got caught, you shouldn’t be in. And these two REALLY got caught. Manny was suspended twice and ARod had the longest PED suspension ever.
All I wanted for Christmas was a lead off hitter that got on base. The lineup starts with a .350 obp guy and then a top 5 player in the game following. In my head, they will be much better at lead off, BWJ can drop a bit and be “just” amazing now, Vinny should still be steady (still a little disappointed in Vinny these days, but he’s solid and they need that), I can see Salvy taking a step back….so if they could find one more middle of the bat guy to go behind Salvy….we are cooking. We’ll see. Conforto or Pederson are looking a little better to me.
If they could somehow pull of a Rengifo/Ward deal now. I’d be pumped. I don’t think they can using Singer already now. But I’ll still dream.
How much of Bellinger’s 2025 money would the Cubs have to eat for him to be a realistic option for someone? Let’s say it’s $10M, what would it take in terms of prospects? The risk is $25M player option in 2026 but If he repeats his 2024 he’ll opt out with only a year remaining right? Doesn’t seem as crazy as I first thought but that $10M from the cubs to get his contract down to $17M this year might be optimistic
I've thought about that a lot myself. You have to keep in mind the $5 million buyout too. So he's owed $32.5 million if he opts out or $52.5 million for two years. That's a lot of money for a guy with some iffy batted ball metrics. But he could really help too. It's such a tough contract to acquire because of all of that. So if they eat $10 million, I would think it would still be relatively cheap prospect-wise. I'm not sure I'd do it for that cost anyway, though I guess it's not my money.
Hey Lesky - Good work as per usual. I didn't see Profar in your mentions, which is weird as it seems he's always linked to us in the post season. He's definitely my preferred target. He hits for average, has pop, can run and is a solid fielder - is the price too high for us?
I want nothing to do with Profar at the cost he's going to run. This past year seems like the outlier in a big way. He hit .239/.327/.366 the last three years before 2024 with 28 homers total. I'd also push back on the defense part. He's rated really poorly defensively for awhile. And even the speed has been down for a few years. Some team is going to give him 3/45 and I have a feeling they might regret that by like July.
Wow! 3/45 - take it kid! He just played for 1M I believe. Duly noted.
He did. Had to sign that deal because of how bad he was for years before it. It was a great season, but someone is going to drastically overpay for it.
Great article. Like many royals I was stunned to hear royals check in on Soto however more I thought about it i remember saying with new ownership in expect things we never had before. More i think about it i agree with ya on the deferred money, and at same time I think Sherman thinking could be when new stadium and district (whatever that be like) he plans on using that i believe he said on along.
Oh they'll definitely spend. We've already seen them give a massive deal to Bobby. But I think if you check in with Soto and walk away thinking he's out of your range, then you had something creative in mind because you don't need to call Boras to know what Soto is looking for.
Is it worth it to move Hernandez? Do they really have no spot? I know the return will be light.
Maybe checking in on Soto suggests they’re interested in Hernandez or Santander too.
There are so many bullpen spots that there may or may not be room on the big league roster. But being out of options means moving him in the offseason *probably* nets more than in spring training when teams might know he could easily be available for free. I don't think they have to move him, but I think they will. They'll get some upside for him.
Just saw BWJ won heart and hustle award. Reminded yet again of his incredible talent.
Is it just me, or do any other fans try not to think about this being just the beginning, for fear he turns into a pumpkin?
I think it’s just you. The guy does everything well, is a hard worker and has the pedigree to continue to do this for many years to come. Sure, anything can happen, but if he turns into a pumpkin, nobody will ever be able to be counted on again.
Ha good to know. I tend to drift into the “we cant have nice things” camp recently, but i was definitely posting he was going to be a great ss last spring when many still stuck on 3b
I know there are a thousand variables to this question, but how much do you think we’ll give one bat? I feel like we’re spending on starting pitching, BWJ and we’ve already got Salvy. I don’t see any “big”money deals for other position players - as in $25M/year or more. I could see $10M/yr for an experienced player to make an impact. BC I do think they will want to try and keep Vinnie for awhile, maybe Massey or another INF.
I don't think they'll spend $25 million on a bat, but they also never have other than Bobby and he won't above $20 million until 2028. I don't think they're going to spend significantly on starting pitching at this point. If they don't trade Singer, they'll probably bring in more of a Lorenzen type and if they do trade Singer, that clears about $9 million so they'd only be adding $10-$12 million even if they do spend big on that. They're more likely to give big money to a bat if they do.
Yes, I misspoke about the pitching. I know that’s where they put their emphasis last season and keeping Wacha. Why can’t you read my mind by now David?! Lol
I was just pondering what their long term strategy will be in building this team. I have a good feel for it very short term bc it’s obvious where we need help. But how they spend their money this season may show the thinking long term ie a 2 year bat, or a 3-5 year bat, etc.
The plan is to attack the middle tier of free agency until they can start filling in more from the system. I think there might be a player or two who fits that long-term strategy along the way, but you’ll likely see 1-3 year deals until the system is there. Hopefully it’s close.
That makes sense. Thanks David
Re: India
Would love to see him be flexible at positions, but saw bbsavant ranked him well below average on arm strength. Is that just a lack of data bc he has always been 2b? Or can i throw as far as he does
No, his arm stinks. There are plenty of long throws a second baseman still has to make. I just don't see it working at third for him. I suppose there have been plenty of good left fielders with poor arms, but he's never played there, so you can't expect it to work for him.
It’s the time of year where everyone says they can play multiple positions. India’s not playing anywhere but second with his arm. Lol.
The more I sit on this one though the better I feel about it. Can’t wait to hear your opinion on it David next week. India is an upgrade. A lot of people like Massey….and I think there is more there….but he just doesn’t do what they are looking for. I think it puts Garcia on notice as well. Maybe those two can split the hot corner. I’d be ok with that. IDK. But if those two can’t get on base at a better clip next year. It’s later gator. The mandate it out. And you’re going to say it has been…lol….and you’re right. But they are following through these days. Love it.
That's right, David, it's Royals time and you make Inside the Crown a must read.
Looks like they got India. Wouldn't have been my first choice, but still a pretty significant bat upgrade.
Like I wrote on Monday, it’s a big upgrade in the leadoff spot but I feel like they filled a spot on the diamond that wasn’t a hole and created another hole to do it. In a vacuum, solid trade in terms of value but the real analysis can’t really come until we see the whole offseason puzzle.
Hearing that the Royals are kicking the tires on players like India and Hoerner, what do you think that means for Michael Massey? Part of a trade? Moved to utility (not sure how that would work since he only plays 2B so far in the majors).
I like hearing we are also linked to Bohm, Arrenado (not so much), Suarez, and Bichette (is he willing to switch positions?) Does that mean we could also be checking in on Bregman?
I really like Carlos Hernandez but he clearly has yet to truly establish himself as a consistent reliever. Being out of options, I can see where he would be traded. I understand the roster flexibility of relievers with options to shuttle up and down during the season to keep fresh arms in the pen. I really like that approach and just wish Carlos would have done more to deserve a bullpen spot.
They’re more than kicking the tires on India now. He’s a Royal. I don’t know what it means for Massey. JJ mentioned he might get a shot in left but we have no idea what he can do out there since he’s never done it.
Maybe it’s just me trying to read too much. But it seems pretty clear they don’t think Massey will be able to play 150 games. I’m fine with India. I think it will help a lot actually from the lead off position in front of BWJ. I don’t love it, but I’m fine with it. Wish they could have gotten more with the one big bullet they had. But it’s fine.
I don’t really see India in the outfield. I don’t really see him anywhere other than second with the arm strength. But I’m not a scout, so who knows. Don’t know what it means for Massey, but it can’t be great. They didn’t trade for India not to play him.
If the Royals can't have a Manager of the Year and Executive of the Year after a 30-win improvement and winning a playoff series, then when will they?
Maybe never? Just want to point out that the playoff series had no factor because voting is done before the playoffs. But yeah, I don’t know what more they could do.
No Arod/Manny on your HoF ballot I see. Are you an anti-steroid guys in the Hall believer? It’s something I’m on the fence about myself.
I go back and forth a lot, but I’m currently of the mindset that if you got caught, you shouldn’t be in. And these two REALLY got caught. Manny was suspended twice and ARod had the longest PED suspension ever.
All I wanted for Christmas was a lead off hitter that got on base. The lineup starts with a .350 obp guy and then a top 5 player in the game following. In my head, they will be much better at lead off, BWJ can drop a bit and be “just” amazing now, Vinny should still be steady (still a little disappointed in Vinny these days, but he’s solid and they need that), I can see Salvy taking a step back….so if they could find one more middle of the bat guy to go behind Salvy….we are cooking. We’ll see. Conforto or Pederson are looking a little better to me.
If they could somehow pull of a Rengifo/Ward deal now. I’d be pumped. I don’t think they can using Singer already now. But I’ll still dream.