Today, I look at how the Royals didn't give their first year manager enough, how performance is making JJ's job harder and the weekend against the Twins.
I agree this team shouldn't be this bad. A combination of decisions/events has led us to where they are. Now, how can this change going forward. Unload the underperformers, even if it's for a bag of balls. There has to be consequences.
Agree on Q ... think the criticism I've seen of him is just silly. Either an alternate reality or little quibbles around the edges that just reflect situations where reasonable minds could differ. Completely obvious, but right now they have a left side of the infield, and a catcher, but pretty much everything else up for grabs -- and don't think anyone should be untouchable at the deadline. Again, totally obvious, but just fwiw.
I certainly think he's deserved some criticism, but there were people declaring he wasn't good enough after like two weeks. Come on.
I think it's important to point out that a player being untouchable and a player getting a good enough offer to trade are two different things. I'm not sure the Royals would think twice about trading Pratto, but I also don't think the offers are there right now. Just an example, but there's a fine line.
Thanks for the piece and looking forward to what you’re going to share after the deadline.
I have been thinking too about the coaching staff and agree with you that the lack of veteran pieces hasn’t helped much. While I still believe in Q, I gotta imagine some kind of shakeup is going to happen on the staff. You cant lose 110+ games and just run it back.
That said, if they did make coaching changes, where do you think they would make changes? My gut thinks they may move Zumwalt back to a front office role and let go of DeRenne and bring in a more veteran hitting coach(es). But that’s just theorizing since I don’t have any inside info or knowledge of how the staff is gelling right now
Yeah, I just don't think they're going to be able to go into next year with the same group. The issue is that I don't believe they'll cut ties with Hoover, though I could see him moving to a different role and bringing in a veteran bench coach. But generally, yep, it's the hitting side and it's an easy move. They've struggled (probably underperformed) so it's pretty simple to say they go out of the organization and find a veteran hitting coach who has had success.
Good article, although the glimpses of improvement don’t make Melendez a very valuable trade piece, IMO. He’s still a career .217 hitter over 811 ABs and horrible defensively.
As for trade pieces, we’ve clashed on Barlow before and probably still do. IMO, if he gets traded, we won’t get much in return. Certainly not what we would have received 12 or 18 months ago. I won’t be surprised if he does not bring enough back to make a trade worthwhile.
But:
What about Hernandez? He should have very good trade value and won’t be around by the time the Royals become competitive again. Might Yarborough have some value with pitching being so much in demand across the league? I could see him being traded for a decent prospect or two. Nicky Lopez, whom I have always liked, but hasn’t hit a lick since he looked so good in 2021, is surplus to this team and will be non-tendered this winter to avoid going through arbitration with him. It will be surprising if he isn’t traded. Your thoughts?
I agree Melendez hasn't boosted value that much, but a hot streak on the heels of making actual adjustments might sway someone. I don't know. Just throwing it out there.
I'm not trying to be a jerk about Barlow, but my belief in his value comes from people in other organizations who are part of decision-making processes. It's not gut feeling. And two people in particular have told me their team would give up roughly the same package today they would have in the offseason. One team is not a buyer, so it won't matter, but that's directly from people who know a whole lot more than me.
I've written about all those guys getting moved that you mentioned in the past few weeks. My gut is they don't trade Hernandez because teams are offering a package that matches closer to what Hernandez has been over the course of his career than what he's been this season. I don't have a problem with the Royals holding on to him right now if the offer isn't there, but they can't keep making the same mistake of holding on to relievers when they aren't competitive. Assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff, his value at the next deadline isn't going to decrease. Yarbrough could go. Lopez could go. Olivares could go. Lyles legitimately could go. Even Duffy could go. None of those five bring back much, but they clear space for young guys to get a few reps at least.
So this could be counterintuitive. But I’d like to see them move Hernandez just to show me they aren’t going to make the same mistake with every other reliever. Not exactly the right reason to move him, but it would go along way in convincing me they’ve learned on that front. They talk about it, but never actually moved one. Lol.
Part of that is that I agree with Barlow. I think he’s hurt his value a little bit, but not near as much as what people think. But until they move him, it’s still a bad look for this FO. And the perception (fairly earned) is the same as it was in other years. Move him for solid pieces and change that perception FO.
And moving Hernandez this year would go along way in changing that perception. Now, should they be worried about the perception game? IDK, probably not, but we have owners sending out letters about nothing and continually telling us more details are coming, pay attention to us. Sherman, just tell your FO to move your relievers for a good PR move. LOL.
This morning I think I’m going to disagree a little bit on the veteran leadership thing. Ideally, you want your best player to be your veteran voice (Salvy). You have a future HOF in the rotation (Greinke). I think the Royals looked at this and said, here is our veteran leadership. Now, IDK about Q. I don’t think it is fair yet to make judgement one way or the other. The only real problem I have with him is the little league base running that is continually seen. He hasn’t been able to get that cleaned up.
I think my worry is that…..besides, Witt and Vinny, these guys aren’t good enough. I agree there is talent on this team. But clearly, not near as much as I thought going into the season. At this point, it’s been bad first impressions on a lot of guys. Now they have to show and prove they can do it before changing my mind. MJ, Massey, Pratto, Waters in particular. We’ve seen this show for long enough now that its prove people wrong time or the perception is this.
Please blow everything up and just give everyone a fresh start.
My thought was that the veteran leadership isn't enough in the absence of experience on the bench with Q. So the players maybe "should" be enough, but with a bunch of inexperience on the bench, they're not. But on the baserunning front, they rate slightly above average as a team. They're roughly league average in outs on the bases. They haven't been thrown out at the plate that much. I think they've been maybe a bit overly aggressive, but also when you can't score runs, that's the way to score runs. They're also one of the fastest teams in the league. They've made mistakes, yes, but those are so easily remembered because they stand out. I think the baserunning has been better than people (myself included) give it credit for.
But you're right. The first impressions with Q and his guys have generally been bad. I'd add Garcia to the list of guys good enough. They're going to have to make some decisions in the next few days and the next few months and every impression I've gotten is that they're going to be pretty active between now and the start of next year. Sam McDowell wrote about that this morning too.
That’s good to hear, I’ll have to check out McDowell’s piece. I don’t know how they do it…but they have to be. I don’t understand the plan if they aren’t. You have a roster that doesn’t work for two years now. If you are forced to keep this same roster into the offseason. You better be very creative then….(and to be fair that is possible)…but how can you sell anything that way? No FA is coming in…..so you better be able to back up the truck if you want one. And oh, by the way. You drafted a high school catcher and high school pitcher your first two picks. So you clearly can’t count on anything from them for 4 years or so. All this to say, if you don’t get creative now, or at least in the offseason (which I know you’ll say is easier. Lol), IDK how you get better enough to stick around unless you know you’ve got a 5 year leash. So that at least give me hope, cause I feel like this FO HAS TOO. Now, it’s crushing when you have no options because you only have 4 good players. Lol.
I would anticipate a lot of movement between now and spring training. Creativity at the deadline is just more difficult because you've got teams with real world consequences for making a trade. Let's use the Mariners as an example. They could use more offense. Can they acquire MJ Melendez today and say he will help them make the playoffs when he has a 77 wRC+? Absolutely not. And maybe he could help them, but you can't make that move with the certainty necessary. Fast forward to December and suddenly you're acquiring a guy who had an elite minor league season in 2021, a league average big league year in 2022 and struggled in his second year. It's all upside. You can do a lot more with that lens.
I'm fine with the base running. New bases and rules this year, everyone running more, why not push the envelope and see where the limits are on this new reality in MLB rather than just assume the old base running assumptions apply. Earlier in the year I actually wished they had been more aggressive, more recently that seems to have remedied itself. And there have to be some developing metrics on this. In my mind it's a lot like the going for it on fourth down assumptions in the NFL. Obviously now everyone realizes the pluses of going for it routinely. But that only happened bc a few aggressive (and in some instances, partially desperate coaches) started pushing things. Base running in same camp -- I would be very surprised if the metrics don't develop favorably in favor of pushing it on the base paths way, way, way more aggressively than most teams do today.
Right, w/ you on the trade point. Just seems like halfway through a year of evaluation, it looks like there are basically only 2 young players you would reasonably think could be a material part of the future (Witt/Garcia), w/ maybe Fermin too. Also, on MJ, I actually would maybe hold on to him if the return package didn't reflect him valued at his post break production. Realize that's somewhat overly optimistic, but as down on him as everyone's been this year (deservedly), he shows flashes of something that could be interesting and would hate for him to go somewhere else and turn into a .285/30/100 guy (to use some old school metrics). As for Q, I guess it depends on your definition of "deserved criticism" -- I think there's a spectrum of disagreement w/ a coach / manager decisions. At one end, the decisions are demonstrably dumb, at the other they're demonstrably brilliant, and in the broad middle there are calls that we can argue about but for which there are reasonable rationales on both sides. My point was just that I don't think anything he's done is at the totally dumb end of that spectrum. One very simplistic example: he's definitely on the 'pound the zone' program, so not his fault the staff can't seem to find the plate way too much of the time.
Don't forget Vinnie in the evaluation. But yeah, there are a lot of holes to fill moving forward. I don't think MJ gets traded and I think it makes total sense to not move him if he's being valued the way his numbers say he should. I just wonder if a team gets desperate for a young bat and overreacts. He has the ability in him. Not everyone can get to it and maybe he can't, but there's no reason to trade him for pennies when you have nothing to lose to give him a little more time.
That's a point that I should have made about Q too. His decisions aren't the problem. The fact that the players struggle to execute anything is.
Right, forgot Vinnie but agree he's a solid piece. MJ is such a conundrum to me ... wanted to release him after watching him opening day, drove me crazy when he would strike out swinging while looking like he was falling down backwards, then he has a few hot moments and suddenly you wonder if there's a bit of there there.
The guy was elite at the highest level in 2021 and then was a league average offensive player as a rookie. People really don’t like the batting average but there’s potential at least.
Would you believe with runners on…..I had to double check this…..Melendez has a line of 266/.366/.435/.792 OPS. 124 AB’s. Hitting is hard, but at the same time, it’s not rocket science. Find out what you are doing in those situations and use them in the others. Because every other situation on fangraphs you are god awful MJ. You have success with runners on. Surely, they can diagnose why and try to replicate.
He does not have success with runners in scoring position…so maybe it is entirely having the first baseman covering the bag. I’m not paid to figure that out. But very much expect the Royals to be able to do that.
Sure. And again, the guy is working very hard to make the adjustments. You have to give him the credit there. Maybe it's more about what pitchers are doing with runners on, though, and you can't just ask a pitcher to replicate that in other situations.
I've been a pro-MJ guy all along, so there's definitely some 'hindsight is 20/20' action going on here, but it seems clear to me that they should have traded him in the offseason since they apparently don't think he can catch (also: how did he get this far in his career for them to figure that out?).
His value as an offense-first catcher was just so much higher than his value as an outfielder - and that would be true even if he were hitting this season. Now they have a guy who was once considered a very good prospect and turned him into a nearly valueless trade chip. Of all of the problems with the way the Royals have handled things this season, I think that's the one that is most unforgiveable.
I asked around a little bit and they didn't have him on the block explicitly, but they also didn't tell teams not to ask. And there just wasn't any action on him from what I understand. I think they would have dealt him too. Now, maybe they should have been more proactive, but I just think the value isn't really there yet with him.
Sounds like other teams had maybe also come to the conclusion that he wasn't going to make it as a big league catcher. It still feels like a failure in the supposed goal of being more transactional.
I don't know. I guess maybe. I also think just moving guys to move guys isn't a good strategy. I don't care if they're more transactional. I care that they make better transactions.
If the Royals lose 115-120 games, how can Sherman not clear out everybody? It might not be fair to Quatraro and the new coaches--and maybe not even fair to Picollo since he was so constrained by what was already baked in when he inherited the job--but being historically bad should carry significant costs.
I don't think it's just as simple as "welp, you lost a bunch of games when we gave you very little to work with, so you're out." I mean, look at this roster. I think they should be better, yes, but how good can they even be, especially with Vinnie out for the year now? I think how they get to the end result matters more than the end result at this point. If Singer turns things around, if they get something out of Marsh/Ragans/Zerpa/Veneziano/Bowlan, if Melendez continues to play well, if Massey hits, etc. They're going to lose lots of games even if all that goes well, but isn't that more important than the number on the standings? I think cleaning house just based on a number is fan service that probably does more harm than good in the long run if you actually believe in the people you have in place.
Not to keep harping on Baltimore and Arizona because, again, very different situations, but they didn't fire the manager when he lost 108 and 110 games in his first two full seasons. The Diamondbacks didn't fire Torey Lovullo when they lost 110. I mean maybe that's the right answer, but I don't see it as a cut and dry solution.
Q, the coaching staff, and shoot…I don’t care if JJ stays. But when things go this bad someone falls not he sword. Just how these play out. So if cleaning house is JJ has to fire 1/2 the staff, so be it. It may not be DM calling this shots now, but the players failing are the players this front office drafted, developed, etc. They only removed one person. Hopefully, JJ just didn’t have time to make all the moves he wanted. But it has to happen this offseason. No and/ifs/buts about it.
It’s why I’m excited about the next four days. Doing nothing….is literally OFF the table. Now, if they can make something happen is another story. But we’ll find out soon!
I should have said that I was factoring in Sherman's desire to have a new stadium. I don't live in the KC area and don't know, but I have to imagine that enthusiasm for the team is near zero--and I don't see how it will improve if the same people are in place going onto the spring. Sure, it's not fair and it's short-sighted and maybe it's just shuffling the deck chairs on a sinking ship, but I think the Sherman needs to change the negative vibes ASAP. He can't afford to preach patience.
Maybe. But also look at it from an industry perspective. You're an up-and-coming GM and the guy the owner promoted just a year ago is now fired. You're an up-and-coming manager and the guy hired just a year ago is now fired. I know there's only 30 jobs, but at some point, you're making a job that isn't terribly desirable already even less desirable. The smart play is spend a little money (which I'm nearly 100% convinced they will), boost the roster and then make a move after 2024 if things are still untenable.
You make a good case that a difficult situation could become even more difficult, esp. if the organization wants to sign free agents, retain its own players, etc.
I think what you're more likely to see is others brought in who might be replacements after 2024 or might just make for a dream team if they can make the right moves.
Here's a question for David & the readers who live in the KC area: Does it help or hurt that the Chiefs are so successful?
Does that increase or decrease the pressure on Sherman? Does it make it easier to simply tune out the Royals and not get too upset about this disastrous season?
I don't think it really has a huge impact. Makes it easier to move on this time of year now that training camp has started, but people are obviously upset. Just look at these comments here. Look at Twitter. The number of people who make it a point to tell you that they don't care are telling on themselves by falling all over themselves to say they don't care. But also, a disastrous season is just that. One season. Don't let it become two disasters and it's fine. The issue comes if they lose 110 games next year too.
I was at AFC Champ game in Arrowhead with frozen feet and losing my mind when the FG (seemingly just barely) cleared the crossbar for the win. And I was sitting up behind the first base dugout on Opening Day when the Royals played like crap. To me, the two are distinct, I want them both to be good. And the disastrous season is not really a disastrous season. All along everyone has known they were going to play all the young guys, see what they could do with extended exposure to MLB pitching a few times through the schedule (so they would face teams that had chance to prepare for them), see what happened with the young pitchers, and take their lumps. I've noted bf talking to a Royals person between spring training (where they had a nice W-L record) and opening day and hearing them say don't put much stock in the spring record, this year will be working out the young guys. In theory, the W-L record shouldn't matter that much if the evaluation is successful. What's more concerning is not the W-L, it's that not many of the young guys actually have stepped it up. So it's clear that to be successful in short term it will require additional investment beyond just letting the current group get some seasoning and run it back next year. The Sherman / stadium stuff adds a weird wrinkle to it all, but in theory the two should be totally separate. Clearly, what Sherman wants to do is what other clubs, several of them successfully, have done to enhance their overall viability and entertainment value in their respective markets. You can't go to Atlanta or Houston and not come away thinking that Sherman has a point, regardless of how much they've manage to fumble the PR on it. But that's a long term play for relevancy in the MLB and KC's overall stature as a market, it shouldn't have anything to do with how this year's team, or frankly next year's team, performs. The A's aren't going to LV bc they stink, they're going bc the ballpark and investment opportunities are undeniably great. And KC as a region would be undeniably impoverished if the Royals left, which would be the very unfortunate reality if they could not move on from the K to another location in the region at some point in the next decade.
After looking at tonight’s line up against the twins does nothing but provoke that Quatraro is a joke for a manager. Pratto, Massey should be in the lin up every evening, Waters should be in center very night. Come on Perez at 1st, his reaction time is behind the plate not at 1st. Getting harder and harder to root for this organization, let’s pick a line up out of a hat, the same way the do RP
This is shame talent to develop and an organization who acts like they don’t care, should have left Grienke on the DL the rest of the year, new nickname, one time through the batting order Grienke, looks like he should be pitching slo-pitch softball
Great stuff as always! I personally really like Q, and I do think he'll improve with time. The guy has very little to work with as you said. I too would like to see the hitting staff reshuffled and the baserunning drives me crazy at times. Changes and investment on the minor league side may be more important, but I think we'll see changes there as well. Also completely agree there's no way this team should be this bad. I'm warming up to a future of Vinnie, Bobby, Maikel, Massey/Loftin infield. Just need outfield and loads of pitching.
Hopefully I didn't just miss it as I know you've talked about every trade candidate. But given what we have in the minors, who would you trade before the start of next season if we assume approximately fair value in return?
I don’t know that there are many I wouldn’t trade. Maybe Witt and Vinnie. But I’m not sure I wouldn’t trade Witt if he doesn’t sign a long-term deal. I think he either agrees to an eight-year deal or maybe he can go on the block too.
Yeah, That's where I'm at as well. With what we have in the minors, or more so what we do not have, starting completely over seems like the best option. If Witt isnt interested in an extension, I think you trade him in the offseason. Vinny's injury complicates things, and it may be better to allow Maikel to build more value. Didnt think this way before the season, it's tough to think about. But I agree, its time to tear it down.
Oh Noo..Taylor Hearn?..if we're trading just to trade, give me a no name high risk rookie baller over an established terrible reliever. Its not over, but JJ is officially in fired after the deadline territory in my opinion..
I agree this team shouldn't be this bad. A combination of decisions/events has led us to where they are. Now, how can this change going forward. Unload the underperformers, even if it's for a bag of balls. There has to be consequences.
I would assume the team that takes the field on March 28 looks pretty different than the one you'll see take the field tonight.
Agree on Q ... think the criticism I've seen of him is just silly. Either an alternate reality or little quibbles around the edges that just reflect situations where reasonable minds could differ. Completely obvious, but right now they have a left side of the infield, and a catcher, but pretty much everything else up for grabs -- and don't think anyone should be untouchable at the deadline. Again, totally obvious, but just fwiw.
I certainly think he's deserved some criticism, but there were people declaring he wasn't good enough after like two weeks. Come on.
I think it's important to point out that a player being untouchable and a player getting a good enough offer to trade are two different things. I'm not sure the Royals would think twice about trading Pratto, but I also don't think the offers are there right now. Just an example, but there's a fine line.
Thanks for the piece and looking forward to what you’re going to share after the deadline.
I have been thinking too about the coaching staff and agree with you that the lack of veteran pieces hasn’t helped much. While I still believe in Q, I gotta imagine some kind of shakeup is going to happen on the staff. You cant lose 110+ games and just run it back.
That said, if they did make coaching changes, where do you think they would make changes? My gut thinks they may move Zumwalt back to a front office role and let go of DeRenne and bring in a more veteran hitting coach(es). But that’s just theorizing since I don’t have any inside info or knowledge of how the staff is gelling right now
Yeah, I just don't think they're going to be able to go into next year with the same group. The issue is that I don't believe they'll cut ties with Hoover, though I could see him moving to a different role and bringing in a veteran bench coach. But generally, yep, it's the hitting side and it's an easy move. They've struggled (probably underperformed) so it's pretty simple to say they go out of the organization and find a veteran hitting coach who has had success.
Good article, although the glimpses of improvement don’t make Melendez a very valuable trade piece, IMO. He’s still a career .217 hitter over 811 ABs and horrible defensively.
As for trade pieces, we’ve clashed on Barlow before and probably still do. IMO, if he gets traded, we won’t get much in return. Certainly not what we would have received 12 or 18 months ago. I won’t be surprised if he does not bring enough back to make a trade worthwhile.
But:
What about Hernandez? He should have very good trade value and won’t be around by the time the Royals become competitive again. Might Yarborough have some value with pitching being so much in demand across the league? I could see him being traded for a decent prospect or two. Nicky Lopez, whom I have always liked, but hasn’t hit a lick since he looked so good in 2021, is surplus to this team and will be non-tendered this winter to avoid going through arbitration with him. It will be surprising if he isn’t traded. Your thoughts?
I agree Melendez hasn't boosted value that much, but a hot streak on the heels of making actual adjustments might sway someone. I don't know. Just throwing it out there.
I'm not trying to be a jerk about Barlow, but my belief in his value comes from people in other organizations who are part of decision-making processes. It's not gut feeling. And two people in particular have told me their team would give up roughly the same package today they would have in the offseason. One team is not a buyer, so it won't matter, but that's directly from people who know a whole lot more than me.
I've written about all those guys getting moved that you mentioned in the past few weeks. My gut is they don't trade Hernandez because teams are offering a package that matches closer to what Hernandez has been over the course of his career than what he's been this season. I don't have a problem with the Royals holding on to him right now if the offer isn't there, but they can't keep making the same mistake of holding on to relievers when they aren't competitive. Assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff, his value at the next deadline isn't going to decrease. Yarbrough could go. Lopez could go. Olivares could go. Lyles legitimately could go. Even Duffy could go. None of those five bring back much, but they clear space for young guys to get a few reps at least.
So this could be counterintuitive. But I’d like to see them move Hernandez just to show me they aren’t going to make the same mistake with every other reliever. Not exactly the right reason to move him, but it would go along way in convincing me they’ve learned on that front. They talk about it, but never actually moved one. Lol.
I really hope they don't move a player to prove a point to people. Move a player to get talent.
They won’t, they are professionals. The point was only that I don’t trust them, show me your are done making the same mistakes.
Part of that is that I agree with Barlow. I think he’s hurt his value a little bit, but not near as much as what people think. But until they move him, it’s still a bad look for this FO. And the perception (fairly earned) is the same as it was in other years. Move him for solid pieces and change that perception FO.
And moving Hernandez this year would go along way in changing that perception. Now, should they be worried about the perception game? IDK, probably not, but we have owners sending out letters about nothing and continually telling us more details are coming, pay attention to us. Sherman, just tell your FO to move your relievers for a good PR move. LOL.
This morning I think I’m going to disagree a little bit on the veteran leadership thing. Ideally, you want your best player to be your veteran voice (Salvy). You have a future HOF in the rotation (Greinke). I think the Royals looked at this and said, here is our veteran leadership. Now, IDK about Q. I don’t think it is fair yet to make judgement one way or the other. The only real problem I have with him is the little league base running that is continually seen. He hasn’t been able to get that cleaned up.
I think my worry is that…..besides, Witt and Vinny, these guys aren’t good enough. I agree there is talent on this team. But clearly, not near as much as I thought going into the season. At this point, it’s been bad first impressions on a lot of guys. Now they have to show and prove they can do it before changing my mind. MJ, Massey, Pratto, Waters in particular. We’ve seen this show for long enough now that its prove people wrong time or the perception is this.
Please blow everything up and just give everyone a fresh start.
My thought was that the veteran leadership isn't enough in the absence of experience on the bench with Q. So the players maybe "should" be enough, but with a bunch of inexperience on the bench, they're not. But on the baserunning front, they rate slightly above average as a team. They're roughly league average in outs on the bases. They haven't been thrown out at the plate that much. I think they've been maybe a bit overly aggressive, but also when you can't score runs, that's the way to score runs. They're also one of the fastest teams in the league. They've made mistakes, yes, but those are so easily remembered because they stand out. I think the baserunning has been better than people (myself included) give it credit for.
But you're right. The first impressions with Q and his guys have generally been bad. I'd add Garcia to the list of guys good enough. They're going to have to make some decisions in the next few days and the next few months and every impression I've gotten is that they're going to be pretty active between now and the start of next year. Sam McDowell wrote about that this morning too.
That’s good to hear, I’ll have to check out McDowell’s piece. I don’t know how they do it…but they have to be. I don’t understand the plan if they aren’t. You have a roster that doesn’t work for two years now. If you are forced to keep this same roster into the offseason. You better be very creative then….(and to be fair that is possible)…but how can you sell anything that way? No FA is coming in…..so you better be able to back up the truck if you want one. And oh, by the way. You drafted a high school catcher and high school pitcher your first two picks. So you clearly can’t count on anything from them for 4 years or so. All this to say, if you don’t get creative now, or at least in the offseason (which I know you’ll say is easier. Lol), IDK how you get better enough to stick around unless you know you’ve got a 5 year leash. So that at least give me hope, cause I feel like this FO HAS TOO. Now, it’s crushing when you have no options because you only have 4 good players. Lol.
I would anticipate a lot of movement between now and spring training. Creativity at the deadline is just more difficult because you've got teams with real world consequences for making a trade. Let's use the Mariners as an example. They could use more offense. Can they acquire MJ Melendez today and say he will help them make the playoffs when he has a 77 wRC+? Absolutely not. And maybe he could help them, but you can't make that move with the certainty necessary. Fast forward to December and suddenly you're acquiring a guy who had an elite minor league season in 2021, a league average big league year in 2022 and struggled in his second year. It's all upside. You can do a lot more with that lens.
I'm fine with the base running. New bases and rules this year, everyone running more, why not push the envelope and see where the limits are on this new reality in MLB rather than just assume the old base running assumptions apply. Earlier in the year I actually wished they had been more aggressive, more recently that seems to have remedied itself. And there have to be some developing metrics on this. In my mind it's a lot like the going for it on fourth down assumptions in the NFL. Obviously now everyone realizes the pluses of going for it routinely. But that only happened bc a few aggressive (and in some instances, partially desperate coaches) started pushing things. Base running in same camp -- I would be very surprised if the metrics don't develop favorably in favor of pushing it on the base paths way, way, way more aggressively than most teams do today.
Right, w/ you on the trade point. Just seems like halfway through a year of evaluation, it looks like there are basically only 2 young players you would reasonably think could be a material part of the future (Witt/Garcia), w/ maybe Fermin too. Also, on MJ, I actually would maybe hold on to him if the return package didn't reflect him valued at his post break production. Realize that's somewhat overly optimistic, but as down on him as everyone's been this year (deservedly), he shows flashes of something that could be interesting and would hate for him to go somewhere else and turn into a .285/30/100 guy (to use some old school metrics). As for Q, I guess it depends on your definition of "deserved criticism" -- I think there's a spectrum of disagreement w/ a coach / manager decisions. At one end, the decisions are demonstrably dumb, at the other they're demonstrably brilliant, and in the broad middle there are calls that we can argue about but for which there are reasonable rationales on both sides. My point was just that I don't think anything he's done is at the totally dumb end of that spectrum. One very simplistic example: he's definitely on the 'pound the zone' program, so not his fault the staff can't seem to find the plate way too much of the time.
Don't forget Vinnie in the evaluation. But yeah, there are a lot of holes to fill moving forward. I don't think MJ gets traded and I think it makes total sense to not move him if he's being valued the way his numbers say he should. I just wonder if a team gets desperate for a young bat and overreacts. He has the ability in him. Not everyone can get to it and maybe he can't, but there's no reason to trade him for pennies when you have nothing to lose to give him a little more time.
That's a point that I should have made about Q too. His decisions aren't the problem. The fact that the players struggle to execute anything is.
Right, forgot Vinnie but agree he's a solid piece. MJ is such a conundrum to me ... wanted to release him after watching him opening day, drove me crazy when he would strike out swinging while looking like he was falling down backwards, then he has a few hot moments and suddenly you wonder if there's a bit of there there.
The guy was elite at the highest level in 2021 and then was a league average offensive player as a rookie. People really don’t like the batting average but there’s potential at least.
Would you believe with runners on…..I had to double check this…..Melendez has a line of 266/.366/.435/.792 OPS. 124 AB’s. Hitting is hard, but at the same time, it’s not rocket science. Find out what you are doing in those situations and use them in the others. Because every other situation on fangraphs you are god awful MJ. You have success with runners on. Surely, they can diagnose why and try to replicate.
He does not have success with runners in scoring position…so maybe it is entirely having the first baseman covering the bag. I’m not paid to figure that out. But very much expect the Royals to be able to do that.
Sure. And again, the guy is working very hard to make the adjustments. You have to give him the credit there. Maybe it's more about what pitchers are doing with runners on, though, and you can't just ask a pitcher to replicate that in other situations.
I've been a pro-MJ guy all along, so there's definitely some 'hindsight is 20/20' action going on here, but it seems clear to me that they should have traded him in the offseason since they apparently don't think he can catch (also: how did he get this far in his career for them to figure that out?).
His value as an offense-first catcher was just so much higher than his value as an outfielder - and that would be true even if he were hitting this season. Now they have a guy who was once considered a very good prospect and turned him into a nearly valueless trade chip. Of all of the problems with the way the Royals have handled things this season, I think that's the one that is most unforgiveable.
I asked around a little bit and they didn't have him on the block explicitly, but they also didn't tell teams not to ask. And there just wasn't any action on him from what I understand. I think they would have dealt him too. Now, maybe they should have been more proactive, but I just think the value isn't really there yet with him.
Sounds like other teams had maybe also come to the conclusion that he wasn't going to make it as a big league catcher. It still feels like a failure in the supposed goal of being more transactional.
I don't know. I guess maybe. I also think just moving guys to move guys isn't a good strategy. I don't care if they're more transactional. I care that they make better transactions.
If the Royals lose 115-120 games, how can Sherman not clear out everybody? It might not be fair to Quatraro and the new coaches--and maybe not even fair to Picollo since he was so constrained by what was already baked in when he inherited the job--but being historically bad should carry significant costs.
I don't think it's just as simple as "welp, you lost a bunch of games when we gave you very little to work with, so you're out." I mean, look at this roster. I think they should be better, yes, but how good can they even be, especially with Vinnie out for the year now? I think how they get to the end result matters more than the end result at this point. If Singer turns things around, if they get something out of Marsh/Ragans/Zerpa/Veneziano/Bowlan, if Melendez continues to play well, if Massey hits, etc. They're going to lose lots of games even if all that goes well, but isn't that more important than the number on the standings? I think cleaning house just based on a number is fan service that probably does more harm than good in the long run if you actually believe in the people you have in place.
Not to keep harping on Baltimore and Arizona because, again, very different situations, but they didn't fire the manager when he lost 108 and 110 games in his first two full seasons. The Diamondbacks didn't fire Torey Lovullo when they lost 110. I mean maybe that's the right answer, but I don't see it as a cut and dry solution.
Q, the coaching staff, and shoot…I don’t care if JJ stays. But when things go this bad someone falls not he sword. Just how these play out. So if cleaning house is JJ has to fire 1/2 the staff, so be it. It may not be DM calling this shots now, but the players failing are the players this front office drafted, developed, etc. They only removed one person. Hopefully, JJ just didn’t have time to make all the moves he wanted. But it has to happen this offseason. No and/ifs/buts about it.
It’s why I’m excited about the next four days. Doing nothing….is literally OFF the table. Now, if they can make something happen is another story. But we’ll find out soon!
Doing that would be more terrible than the losses. If that's Sherman's move, then he really doesn't deserve to own this team.
I should have said that I was factoring in Sherman's desire to have a new stadium. I don't live in the KC area and don't know, but I have to imagine that enthusiasm for the team is near zero--and I don't see how it will improve if the same people are in place going onto the spring. Sure, it's not fair and it's short-sighted and maybe it's just shuffling the deck chairs on a sinking ship, but I think the Sherman needs to change the negative vibes ASAP. He can't afford to preach patience.
Maybe. But also look at it from an industry perspective. You're an up-and-coming GM and the guy the owner promoted just a year ago is now fired. You're an up-and-coming manager and the guy hired just a year ago is now fired. I know there's only 30 jobs, but at some point, you're making a job that isn't terribly desirable already even less desirable. The smart play is spend a little money (which I'm nearly 100% convinced they will), boost the roster and then make a move after 2024 if things are still untenable.
You make a good case that a difficult situation could become even more difficult, esp. if the organization wants to sign free agents, retain its own players, etc.
I think what you're more likely to see is others brought in who might be replacements after 2024 or might just make for a dream team if they can make the right moves.
Here's a question for David & the readers who live in the KC area: Does it help or hurt that the Chiefs are so successful?
Does that increase or decrease the pressure on Sherman? Does it make it easier to simply tune out the Royals and not get too upset about this disastrous season?
I don't think it really has a huge impact. Makes it easier to move on this time of year now that training camp has started, but people are obviously upset. Just look at these comments here. Look at Twitter. The number of people who make it a point to tell you that they don't care are telling on themselves by falling all over themselves to say they don't care. But also, a disastrous season is just that. One season. Don't let it become two disasters and it's fine. The issue comes if they lose 110 games next year too.
I was at AFC Champ game in Arrowhead with frozen feet and losing my mind when the FG (seemingly just barely) cleared the crossbar for the win. And I was sitting up behind the first base dugout on Opening Day when the Royals played like crap. To me, the two are distinct, I want them both to be good. And the disastrous season is not really a disastrous season. All along everyone has known they were going to play all the young guys, see what they could do with extended exposure to MLB pitching a few times through the schedule (so they would face teams that had chance to prepare for them), see what happened with the young pitchers, and take their lumps. I've noted bf talking to a Royals person between spring training (where they had a nice W-L record) and opening day and hearing them say don't put much stock in the spring record, this year will be working out the young guys. In theory, the W-L record shouldn't matter that much if the evaluation is successful. What's more concerning is not the W-L, it's that not many of the young guys actually have stepped it up. So it's clear that to be successful in short term it will require additional investment beyond just letting the current group get some seasoning and run it back next year. The Sherman / stadium stuff adds a weird wrinkle to it all, but in theory the two should be totally separate. Clearly, what Sherman wants to do is what other clubs, several of them successfully, have done to enhance their overall viability and entertainment value in their respective markets. You can't go to Atlanta or Houston and not come away thinking that Sherman has a point, regardless of how much they've manage to fumble the PR on it. But that's a long term play for relevancy in the MLB and KC's overall stature as a market, it shouldn't have anything to do with how this year's team, or frankly next year's team, performs. The A's aren't going to LV bc they stink, they're going bc the ballpark and investment opportunities are undeniably great. And KC as a region would be undeniably impoverished if the Royals left, which would be the very unfortunate reality if they could not move on from the K to another location in the region at some point in the next decade.
After looking at tonight’s line up against the twins does nothing but provoke that Quatraro is a joke for a manager. Pratto, Massey should be in the lin up every evening, Waters should be in center very night. Come on Perez at 1st, his reaction time is behind the plate not at 1st. Getting harder and harder to root for this organization, let’s pick a line up out of a hat, the same way the do RP
Pratto is on the IL.
This is shame talent to develop and an organization who acts like they don’t care, should have left Grienke on the DL the rest of the year, new nickname, one time through the batting order Grienke, looks like he should be pitching slo-pitch softball
Great stuff as always! I personally really like Q, and I do think he'll improve with time. The guy has very little to work with as you said. I too would like to see the hitting staff reshuffled and the baserunning drives me crazy at times. Changes and investment on the minor league side may be more important, but I think we'll see changes there as well. Also completely agree there's no way this team should be this bad. I'm warming up to a future of Vinnie, Bobby, Maikel, Massey/Loftin infield. Just need outfield and loads of pitching.
Hopefully I didn't just miss it as I know you've talked about every trade candidate. But given what we have in the minors, who would you trade before the start of next season if we assume approximately fair value in return?
I don’t know that there are many I wouldn’t trade. Maybe Witt and Vinnie. But I’m not sure I wouldn’t trade Witt if he doesn’t sign a long-term deal. I think he either agrees to an eight-year deal or maybe he can go on the block too.
Yeah, That's where I'm at as well. With what we have in the minors, or more so what we do not have, starting completely over seems like the best option. If Witt isnt interested in an extension, I think you trade him in the offseason. Vinny's injury complicates things, and it may be better to allow Maikel to build more value. Didnt think this way before the season, it's tough to think about. But I agree, its time to tear it down.
Oh Noo..Taylor Hearn?..if we're trading just to trade, give me a no name high risk rookie baller over an established terrible reliever. Its not over, but JJ is officially in fired after the deadline territory in my opinion..