Yes, we definitely need to focus on the big picture and long term this season. And that includes the minor league development and new acquisitions through the draft (and trades??).
I would be pretty surprised if they aren't super active given how active they've been over the last 20 months or so. I get the sense that the organization has a much clearer idea of what they are than they did previously, and that's a good thing.
The low innings for the pitching staff is a concern. We very well could look back in a 6 months and say… there were warning signs there. But if they all stay healthy it will be much improved.
Two things make this year a success. I don’t really care who or how they get there…but they need a 10-15 game win improvement on last year. AND…..and this is maybe the biggest part. The farm system needs to show signs of life. It’s great if we win 10 more games on the backs of Vinny, Witt, and let’s say Melendez. But if there is no visible help on the way buy the end of the year…its gets tough to see yet. I’m not saying they need a top 10 farm system. I’m just saying we need to see a pitcher or Cross, or someone who takes a major step that can really help. We need to see a 2-3 WAR player become a possibility within the system.
The goal is to start producing a 2-3 WAR player from the system every year. Because injuries (like Vinny last year) kill this team yet. Maybe Garcia is that from coming up last year (I’m not sold yet). But give me some life of another this year….and I’ll consider that a success.
I think it absolutely matters how they improve by 10-15 games. It does absolutely nothing for the long-term if Michael Wacha and Hunter Renfroe go nuts while most of the young core struggles.
The farm system does matter quite a bit in terms of success. As I've said, they have depth in the system, but you're right that they need to produce regulars as much as they need to produce stars. Right now, it looks like Gentry and Loftin can be regulars. Next year, maybe it's Wallace, Cross and maybe Roccaforte. But they need to actually do it at some point and not just look ahead to what they might do.
Maybe we should just say it’s a successful season if they aren’t buried by the end of April. Not that one month defines a season. But give us the hope of an interesting summer Royals!
In terms of the draft, and the future in general, which direction would you say the team should focus more based on the quality of their development system--pitchers or hitters?
A handful of years ago I would have definitely said they should be focusing on drafting and developing batters because they seemed to be doing it very well (so, of course, they focused on drafting pitchers, which they couldn't develop at all). Now, I'm not quite so confident in their development on that side considering the mixed results those guys from the "good" period have had once they hit the big league (Isbel, Massey, Melendez) and the slow or failed development of some of their other higher end prospects (though, as I think about it, given their focus on pitching, I guess my list of examples here is kind of just Cross from the last three or four years--and if he was injured, that one might not even be valid). Even a year ago I would have considered it insanity to think that their pitching development was even competent and that they should never, under and circumstances, waste high draft picks on a developmental player because it would be better to get the best batter available and make some trades for pitching when there are logjams. But now . . . I dunno.
And I guess this question comes mostly from a "hey, this is a small market, sure they might get lucky and find some A+ level coaching/development guys, but they're going to lose them to higher bidders before too long and it seems more realistic that poorer teams try to focus on one or the other and use their surplus to cover their shortcomings" place. Which may or may not be fair or true.
I actually don’t know if that’s true. While I’ve long wondered why elite development guys don’t get $15 million a year, they just don’t. And I get the sense that if a team like the Dodgers tried to offer someone that, the Royals would match it or beat it.
Interesting! I know absolutely nothing about administrative payroll with the Royals, so I guess I was just assuming that they were as cheap on that end as they have been with their players forever now. That gives me quite a bit of hope, actually.
I don’t know full salaries, of course, but I’ve never gotten the impression they’re particularly cheap in that regard. I think John Sherman truly understands the idea that you can spend more on these roles and theoretically save more on payroll because you’re constantly churning out big leaguers.
This is a total bs answer, but the answer is both and the best organizations can do both. They have had some positive results in the minors with pitchers, but their offensive development also looked great in 2021 and those guys have largely struggled at the big league level, like you mentioned. They aren't without their victories. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino stand out and maybe Maikel Garcia joins them this year, but there have also been those issues.
I still believe that you're going to find more success drafting/developing hitters and trading the surplus for already developed (and healthy) pitchers. But you also can't completely ignore the pitching side, of course.
I know it sucks, but the Royals are really going to have to retrain my brain to accept the concept of them even being capable of being a "best organization." Those "lowered expectations" skits from SNL in the 90s come to mind. Also, I have innate pessimistic tendencies (I like to tell people I'm a realist because that sounds nicer, but they're the same thing, practically speaking). In my defense, though, I wasn't old enough to really start paying attention to baseball until about 1990, so I haven't been privy to any Royals organizations that have been particularly best at much. They had two good years, yes, but a "best" organization would have been able to sustain, at least to a competitive degree, after that "great" period.
Hmm. I actually like this mental exercise of trying to come up with a comparable "great" organization that has been able to make playoff runs (I'm not going to say they had to win the Series because the playoffs are wild and unpredictable by nature) and do so with a comparable payroll, and continue to do so more or less perpetually. Now I have something to further distract me from the work I'm supposed to be doing!
I know the Royals moved on from Dozier early. And you have said it’s a real competition. But it’s great news to me that Marsh is the 5th starter and Lyles is in the bullpen. They are finally acting like a legit major league team and the contracts not ruling the day. IDK if Marsh is the answer, but he is a better option than Lynch or Lyles. So good for them for making the right decision. Follow that up with Melendez and Massey now if they have another slow first half like last year.
I guess I don’t want them to pick and choose either. I don’t believe in Pratto but if he is a better option than Velasquez then you go with him right now.
I think they me be a little more invested in these last games as a younger team?- only saw the highlights, and Singer probably phoned it in, but the bats and butt slaps looked pretty dialed in for the angels game a couple days ago. They also havent put the bigboys together much so maybe that is by design to minimize the last week apathy?
I am actually fully prepared for Q to pull Ragans after 5 innings a la Kevin Cash and pitch counts, but thank you for the heads up (ha ha i like how you are preparing yourself as well)
So why then do you kind of dislike Zerpa in the pen? Couldn't he provide some bulk innings? Or would you prefer they keep his in AAA as a reserve starter?
A success in my fan notebook will be not feeling like I am putting on my royals hairshirt jersey while watching games in late august and september
I don't know that you necessarily see it clear as day when watching that the guys are pretty much done, but a younger team definitely has more to play for the whole time.
I think Zerpa can be a perfectly good reliever, but I just worry some that they're going to need him stretched out at some point, but he won't be because he's been going an inning at a time for three months. So it's more about the circumstance and the fact that they have a lot of other relief options.
Really appreciate your excellent analyses and explanations, David--and your thoughtful responses to the commenters here. Loved "...if they have aspirations to do more than watch the playoffs on television, they’ll need to be smart"! Here's hoping!
Yes, we definitely need to focus on the big picture and long term this season. And that includes the minor league development and new acquisitions through the draft (and trades??).
I would be pretty surprised if they aren't super active given how active they've been over the last 20 months or so. I get the sense that the organization has a much clearer idea of what they are than they did previously, and that's a good thing.
The low innings for the pitching staff is a concern. We very well could look back in a 6 months and say… there were warning signs there. But if they all stay healthy it will be much improved.
Two things make this year a success. I don’t really care who or how they get there…but they need a 10-15 game win improvement on last year. AND…..and this is maybe the biggest part. The farm system needs to show signs of life. It’s great if we win 10 more games on the backs of Vinny, Witt, and let’s say Melendez. But if there is no visible help on the way buy the end of the year…its gets tough to see yet. I’m not saying they need a top 10 farm system. I’m just saying we need to see a pitcher or Cross, or someone who takes a major step that can really help. We need to see a 2-3 WAR player become a possibility within the system.
The goal is to start producing a 2-3 WAR player from the system every year. Because injuries (like Vinny last year) kill this team yet. Maybe Garcia is that from coming up last year (I’m not sold yet). But give me some life of another this year….and I’ll consider that a success.
I think it absolutely matters how they improve by 10-15 games. It does absolutely nothing for the long-term if Michael Wacha and Hunter Renfroe go nuts while most of the young core struggles.
The farm system does matter quite a bit in terms of success. As I've said, they have depth in the system, but you're right that they need to produce regulars as much as they need to produce stars. Right now, it looks like Gentry and Loftin can be regulars. Next year, maybe it's Wallace, Cross and maybe Roccaforte. But they need to actually do it at some point and not just look ahead to what they might do.
Maybe we should just say it’s a successful season if they aren’t buried by the end of April. Not that one month defines a season. But give us the hope of an interesting summer Royals!
Here's hoping for that.
In terms of the draft, and the future in general, which direction would you say the team should focus more based on the quality of their development system--pitchers or hitters?
A handful of years ago I would have definitely said they should be focusing on drafting and developing batters because they seemed to be doing it very well (so, of course, they focused on drafting pitchers, which they couldn't develop at all). Now, I'm not quite so confident in their development on that side considering the mixed results those guys from the "good" period have had once they hit the big league (Isbel, Massey, Melendez) and the slow or failed development of some of their other higher end prospects (though, as I think about it, given their focus on pitching, I guess my list of examples here is kind of just Cross from the last three or four years--and if he was injured, that one might not even be valid). Even a year ago I would have considered it insanity to think that their pitching development was even competent and that they should never, under and circumstances, waste high draft picks on a developmental player because it would be better to get the best batter available and make some trades for pitching when there are logjams. But now . . . I dunno.
And I guess this question comes mostly from a "hey, this is a small market, sure they might get lucky and find some A+ level coaching/development guys, but they're going to lose them to higher bidders before too long and it seems more realistic that poorer teams try to focus on one or the other and use their surplus to cover their shortcomings" place. Which may or may not be fair or true.
I actually don’t know if that’s true. While I’ve long wondered why elite development guys don’t get $15 million a year, they just don’t. And I get the sense that if a team like the Dodgers tried to offer someone that, the Royals would match it or beat it.
Interesting! I know absolutely nothing about administrative payroll with the Royals, so I guess I was just assuming that they were as cheap on that end as they have been with their players forever now. That gives me quite a bit of hope, actually.
This is actually one of the reasons I love your blog so much. You more than any Royals writer out there have a way of driving away the darkness!
Tell my wife that! Maybe I just dump the angst on her and then it’s gone when I write haha.
I don’t know full salaries, of course, but I’ve never gotten the impression they’re particularly cheap in that regard. I think John Sherman truly understands the idea that you can spend more on these roles and theoretically save more on payroll because you’re constantly churning out big leaguers.
This is a total bs answer, but the answer is both and the best organizations can do both. They have had some positive results in the minors with pitchers, but their offensive development also looked great in 2021 and those guys have largely struggled at the big league level, like you mentioned. They aren't without their victories. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino stand out and maybe Maikel Garcia joins them this year, but there have also been those issues.
I still believe that you're going to find more success drafting/developing hitters and trading the surplus for already developed (and healthy) pitchers. But you also can't completely ignore the pitching side, of course.
I know it sucks, but the Royals are really going to have to retrain my brain to accept the concept of them even being capable of being a "best organization." Those "lowered expectations" skits from SNL in the 90s come to mind. Also, I have innate pessimistic tendencies (I like to tell people I'm a realist because that sounds nicer, but they're the same thing, practically speaking). In my defense, though, I wasn't old enough to really start paying attention to baseball until about 1990, so I haven't been privy to any Royals organizations that have been particularly best at much. They had two good years, yes, but a "best" organization would have been able to sustain, at least to a competitive degree, after that "great" period.
Hmm. I actually like this mental exercise of trying to come up with a comparable "great" organization that has been able to make playoff runs (I'm not going to say they had to win the Series because the playoffs are wild and unpredictable by nature) and do so with a comparable payroll, and continue to do so more or less perpetually. Now I have something to further distract me from the work I'm supposed to be doing!
Those skits were incredible, so I take every opportunity to think about them. To be fair, life as a Royals fan creates some pessimsim!
I know the Royals moved on from Dozier early. And you have said it’s a real competition. But it’s great news to me that Marsh is the 5th starter and Lyles is in the bullpen. They are finally acting like a legit major league team and the contracts not ruling the day. IDK if Marsh is the answer, but he is a better option than Lynch or Lyles. So good for them for making the right decision. Follow that up with Melendez and Massey now if they have another slow first half like last year.
I guess I don’t want them to pick and choose either. I don’t believe in Pratto but if he is a better option than Velasquez then you go with him right now.
Dave, what is your Royalty program? I couldn’t find the description on the website. Thx
To be honest, there isn’t anything different (though I should add something). It’s pre-selected on the settings and I never unselected it.
I think they me be a little more invested in these last games as a younger team?- only saw the highlights, and Singer probably phoned it in, but the bats and butt slaps looked pretty dialed in for the angels game a couple days ago. They also havent put the bigboys together much so maybe that is by design to minimize the last week apathy?
I am actually fully prepared for Q to pull Ragans after 5 innings a la Kevin Cash and pitch counts, but thank you for the heads up (ha ha i like how you are preparing yourself as well)
So why then do you kind of dislike Zerpa in the pen? Couldn't he provide some bulk innings? Or would you prefer they keep his in AAA as a reserve starter?
A success in my fan notebook will be not feeling like I am putting on my royals hairshirt jersey while watching games in late august and september
Thank you for all the info!
I don't know that you necessarily see it clear as day when watching that the guys are pretty much done, but a younger team definitely has more to play for the whole time.
I think Zerpa can be a perfectly good reliever, but I just worry some that they're going to need him stretched out at some point, but he won't be because he's been going an inning at a time for three months. So it's more about the circumstance and the fact that they have a lot of other relief options.
Really appreciate your excellent analyses and explanations, David--and your thoughtful responses to the commenters here. Loved "...if they have aspirations to do more than watch the playoffs on television, they’ll need to be smart"! Here's hoping!
"The flip will switch soon.". Intentional?
Hahaha no. I wish.