41 Comments

David - not only was this and your previous column (the "rant") cathartic for you to write, they were cathartic for me to read! You said several things I've been wanting to say but said them much better than I could have or would have. Seriously, my friend, thank you for that!

Craig Brown has already apparently given up on writing his Royals substack. While I don't blame him a bit for that, I'm very glad that you haven't made the same decision. Trying to remain inspired to write about this team regularly you must feel like Sisyphus, forever rolling that boulder up that big damn hill.

Last Saturday in the 7th inning, with the Royals down by 3 runs, I found it disturbing that Quatraro was trying to give away an out with two runners on base. It turned out not to matter as Fermin bunted foul and then took a called 3rd strike. This was a small thing that raises larger questions: Matt, if you're really THAT convinced that Fermin can't hit MLB pitching then what in the world is he doing on your roster - and in your starting lineup - in the first place?

Q's team is on pace to go 44-118. What would have been put at risk by letting Fermin swing the bat? This organization has never been good at tanking on purpose. Is he trying to change that, now that the #1 draft pick isn't guaranteed to even the most putrid of teams?

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I'd bet pretty heavily that Fermin bunted on his own. Now, there's an argument to be made that you also might need to intervene ahead of time by telling him not to do that, but maybe that wasn't something Fermin had done in the past. I just think that was a player trying to do something to help that wasn't actually smart.

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I considered that possibility but dismissed it as highly unlikely. Fermin was surely aware that he had a chance to tie the game with a HR. He also knew that, trailing by three runs late in the game, moving a couple of baserunners up 90 feet would have little value. I just can't picture any professional ballplayer deciding to bunt in that situation unless he has zero confidence in his ability to hit. And I seriously doubt that Fermin has zero confidence.

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I wouldn't dismiss it as highly unlikely. He's a good bunter and likes to bunt. I think it's very possible. Considering the Royals have attempted six sacrifice bunts all year, I'd be pretty surprised if the analytical manager would pick that instance to call for it.

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Since Whit Merrifield joined the Blue Jays his OPS is about 120 points higher than it was with the Royals. Since joining the Orioles, Ryan O'hearn's OPS is >350 points better than it was with the Royals last year. None of us would have trouble thinking of numerous Royals who have disappointed offensively this season. Many key hitters, with but painfully few exceptions (i.e; Pratto, maybe Garcia, probably Vinnie), have backslid this year or are at best unimproved since last year.

Salvy had a monstrous 48HR season before most of them were here, so I don't give the hitting coaches much credit for what he's doing now. His hitting approach has remained unchanged for a very long time.

Are we really, truly, absolutely certain that these hitting coaches can walk the walk as well as they can talk the talk, or did we just grossly overvalue the talent they have to work with? I don't know the answer but given all the evidence I think it's an eminently fair question to ask. At some point nice things said about them by their peers will make a very unsatisfactory substitute for actual real-world empirical results.

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My opinion is that Whit was burned out on the Royals and needed a change of scenery. That happens. He's also overperforming the batted ball data by a fair amount, which is something he's done in the past, so maybe there's some skill to it, but I don't know.

With O'Hearn, I'd argue that he's being used well by the Orioles and also fairly lucky. It doesn't make it feel any better, but I don't think if he gets 300 plate appearances this year that it'll look too different from his Royals days for the last 220 of them, though maybe I'm wrong.

And as for Salvy, his monster season was aided quite a bit by the current coaches. He worked with them in the offseason, but he worked heavily with Mike Tosar, who is gone. I'm wondering a bit how important Tosar was to the entire operation and I think it's very fair to question what these coaches are doing. When the offensive output in the minors improved under this group, it always came with the caveat that maybe it wouldn't translate. So far, a lot of it hasn't. You mentioned the guys it has worked with, but others have been a problem. I still think there's something to a second season that impacts a lot of players, but I wouldn't be upset at all if they at least supplemented the offensive coaching staff with someone from outside the organization.

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As a fan base, we have to stop looking at what these guys do when they leave. Everyone knows Whit and O’Hearn needed a change of scenery. It happens in baseball. I’m glad they found a better situation. Sometimes it’s just time.

If we get caught up in that the royals will never trade anyone. They can’t be afraid of people coming back to them over guys that are producing somewhere else. They just need to find some of those guys themselves. Which happens with every team….except the Royals somehow this year.

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If I'm Salvy I'd be ready for a change of scenery.

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I have been wondering If Tosar wasn't a driving force behind the hitting as well, not that his new team has seen any improvement, but guess its still early

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David, don’t apologize for not writing. I’ve read more of your newsletters than watched the royals games. Probably a good call on the no comments last newsletter. Lol. I actually wrote a fan post on royals review on how JJ can stick around to see one of his draft picks this year make it to the majors. Would love to get your opinion on what you think he needs to do. Does it matter? No. I’m not a writer. I leave that to other people but I’m so frustrated with the organization I’ve paid attention to since the Beltran days. And quite honestly, we are to the point that I don’t really care what happens anymore this year so writing and reading about how to fix it is more enjoyable. Lol.

Do you have any interest in writing about the Rangers or Padres? Keeping an eye on those teams from a distance as they are kinda fun this year. Keep up the good work and good luck with the new job.

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Honestly, the shift that I mentioned is likely going to do what the Royals are doing and turn to 2024 more than anything. But the trade deadline is huge for this club and I’m very curious to see if they get creative or not. The off-season is probably more ripe for creativity given the issues from the season, but there’ll be plenty on what they need to do overall. What’s so frustrating is that, on paper, it feels like they’re not 12 players away, but then the game starts and it feels like they need half of a new roster. Maybe the last 94 games will bridge that gap a little. I’m not optimistic but they’re going to play them either way so might as well find out.

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Sometimes I wonder if we are all too close to it you know? As in, we watch a person come up the system and told all the great things. Get a chance to see them and watch the development. When in reality, player x which is our 5th best prospect is really another organizations 13th best prospect. There is just a disconnect on what we were told, thought, believed going into the year and the actual production on the field.

If you are looking for ideas, a mid season “evaluation” review would be interesting. That’s coming up pretty soon I think.

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It's actually really interesting to listen to other teams' broadcasters. All of them rave about the talent and then by the end of the game seem confused. Which is kind of where I am. I've looked at a few young teams who looked hopeless but turned things around so there's precedent. There's a lot more precedent for teams that don't, but still. The Astros from 2013 are interesting and so are the 2010 Pirates. Sometimes a season happens where the vast majority of things go wrong. Maybe that's all this is. I'm not confident of that, but I suppose it's possible.

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I’ve been out of town. What is the news on Yarborough?

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He’s throwing live BP, so I’d imagine he’ll go to bullpens and then a rehab assignment over the next three or four weeks.

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Another note, what the hell happened to Coleman? I really thought he was going to be a dude in the bullpen this year. If you need anymore proof bullpen pieces are fickle and get what you can (you shouldn’t need anymore) see Coleman. The fact they haven’t been able to get him right is a little puzzling to me.

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I don't know what they've done with him, but I know they've made some changes mechanically and when that happens, yeah, sometimes it works right away, but I generally don't pay much attention to them for a couple of months. I'll be very curious to see what he does over the next few weeks because, yeah, dude can't throw strikes.

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To quote the great baseball mind Homer Simpson: "These are the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked!"

I'm not sure if I can shine more eloquently than Homer, but I will say that if we're still hanging in here, we should get some kind of recognition from the team, or at least a free 72-hour psychiatric hold.

I've never been a believer in "clutch" per se, but I think there's something to it in this particular occasion, and that's just because most of these players are so young that they're absolutely pressing. They press, they almost invariably fail, the team's losses mount, which causes them to press more...so on and so forth. It's the baseball version of "death spiral."

If the above is the case, then it would make sense that if they come through just a couple times, that will release some pressure and they'll be able to move on. Of course, it doesn't help knowing that you're going to have to score seven runs before you even leave the clubhouse. No pressure there...

Hat tip to Josh Vernier on his Wednesday postgame show noting that the only way this gets better is if these new guys make it better. While that may seem like a trite statement, he's absolutely right: nobody's "walking through that door" to help them. We're really going to find out what they're made of. And is there REALLY any difference between 100 losses and 112 losses (or 115)?

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Losing can be a vicious cycle, which is a big reason why I think they need to make moves (stadium vote or not) just to get some guys in to change the makeup of the team. I believed (incorrectly, as it turned out) that the deal for Shields and Davis was too early. They weren't ready to win, in my opinion, but they needed a couple of pieces who could actually help them turn things around. As it turned out, they did win in 2013 and then won a lot the next two years, though with some bumps. This year, nothing of substance is going to change. The deadline is about helping the system and the offseason is about helping the big league club...and maybe the system too. But I think they need to add some experience to help take some of the pressure off.

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Yeah. That 2013 team ended up leading the AL in ERA (there's a nice trivia question), but they only scored exactly 4 runs a game (648 runs total). They were last in homers by 31 or 33 or something like that.

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I think it was the 2014 team that was last. They only hit 95. The 2013 team didn't have a lot more power, but they were over 100, I'm sure.

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They were at 112. I think the Yankees (believe it or not) were 14th with 143 or 145.

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What a weird few years of baseball.

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Right smack in the middle. The Yankees had 144. So the Royals were last by 32.

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Oh you're talking American League. Okay, yeah, I was thinking majors.

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Agree w/ the 'keep writing' comments ... as to substance, does seem like massive amounts of bad luck, including the injuries. And the confluence of a 9 game losing streak, announcement re Pasquatch being out, front page headlines re city officials being fed up with ownership issues on downtown park, Salvy's 'contusion,' etc. have made this a particularly rough week. But there are silver linings if you step back and look at bigger picture: 1) the game of baseball overall is having a very good year -- the new rules have really worked (unless your name is Max), and that bodes well for the future of the game; 2) speaking of the future, the KC region overall is on a strong streak, and one would think that the confluence of baseball being energized and the region on a roll inevitably will work its way through to the Royals (knock on wood); 3) the Royals have some pieces in place -- Witt's approach needs to evolve, but he obviously has the tools to be upper tier for years if he can work out some kinks at the plate; Garcia is promising; Pasquatch will be fine, this is just a bump in the road; I like Pratto; Massey is getting better; Salvy is Salvy, and as much as it would be nice to add some additional pieces to the mix, he's the cornerstone and a reason for all of us to head to the K even when times are otherwise dark; the pitching is rough, so maybe just pretend that can be solved with a couple of smart signings; and I do think the on the field management is approaching things the right way, notwithstanding some quibbles here and there people might have about specific in game decisions (not to mention Q et al being very solid human beings -- realize that isn't the end all / be all if not doing a great job, but they are taking a solid approach, and so their basic human decency should count for something). I don't think it's all the same story over again as it was in the pre Picollo/Q era, there are reasons for long term optimism, and it could be worse -- we could all be Guardians fans and trying to cheer ourselves up w/ nothing to look forward to but another year of more terrible Browns' football.

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Oh there's no chance of me not writing, so don't worry about that.

I do think you're right that there are reasons to at least not be too pessimistic. I honestly find myself no less optimistic or more pessimistic about the future than I was a month ago or two months ago. I'm probably a bit less sunny about the future than I was before the season because of Singer falling on his face so far and Bubic looking good and then getting hurt, but I like a lot of what they're doing at the lower levels and think that it'll pay dividends. Now, I reserve the right to change that after the deadline and the offseason, but for now, I think they're in about the same shape they were before all of this got so terrible.

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I think that's right ... and pitching is obviously the one area where I couldn't think of anything optimistic to say, at least right now. Fingers crossed they can swipe one or two from the Ohtani/Trout show this weekend.

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I think they'll need the offense to get going. All the issues with RISP aside, they've looked a bit better the last couple of games. Need the big hit, yes, but they're getting guys on. That's a start.

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I’m reminded of an uncharacteristically non-cannabis related Cheech & Chong skit from my childhood.

The set up consists of two men trudging through a winter storm as the wind howls. They spot something ahead…

Looks like dog shit.

What’s it smell like?

Dog shit.

What’s it taste like?

Taste like?

Taste it!

Tastes like dog shit.

Must be dog shit!

I think it’s safe to say we all appreciate your observations and in-depth analysis of the Royals.

That said, I think we can all empathize with a lessened enthusiasm for digging around in this steaming blue pile.

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Who would have ever thought this season would have turned out to be like this. I sure didn't, for sure, but life still goes on. These are young players and things will surely get better. BPD already mentioned Craig Brown and you may not want to comment, but I was wondering what happened that he apparently has quit writing. And I fully understand your lack of articles. I was so glad they finally let JBJ go. I would like to both Porter and Gentry get a shot with the club sooner rather than later.

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I don't know what's going on with Craig. I know he's still watching, though!

I'd like to see Gentry work a bit more in AAA. He's shown flashes, but hasn't been great. I think he'll get a shot later in the year. Porter just makes sense to me if Salvy goes on the IL. And you've got an easy 40-man spot by moving Vinnie to the 60-day.

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Not to be all gossipy, but I know awhile back he lapsed in his writing because some personal stuff popped up. I've just been assuming his recent disappearance is related, since he still Tweets, etc. But I could also understand if he's just had enough.

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Hi D

Don't worry about the frequency of your newsletters... quality and insight is what's important....not quantity.

You may want to go with 1 a week....so I can schedule it around my new jobs...gardening, boat restoration, fishing...

I like your assessment of clutch and Royals youth...so there is hope.

I don't want to see any prospects traded for veterans. This organization needs to create a conveyor belt of talent from rookie to the big league club...and into free agency...they do not have the organizational depth to be trading anyone with a dim or bright future.

I am still enjoying the games because I am watching for individual performances...not victories...that stopped with the death of Yordano and the Moose- Gordo Collison...since then this club was no longer a contender.... too bad royals management did not see it as I did.

Greg

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I would argue that they'll have to trade prospects for veterans at some point. Your farm system helps the big league club in two ways - the actual players playing well for them and being used to trade for players who play well. Now, I wouldn't trade anyone for someone who's a free agent after next year or anything but if a deal comes up where they can get someone under control through, say, 2026, yeah, anyone should be available.

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Can we get a daily countdown until the trade deadline to keep us all interested? You know, only x days until we trade MJ for Trout and Ohtani.

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I look forward to buying a KC "Ohtrouti" tee shirt.

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Good to see you back. Thought you might be on strike til they won, but glad you aren't as yeah, could be 12 streak come Monday. (FYI I could only get to this article through twitter link - not on ITC substack homepage)

Maybe Vinnie's departure is somewhat good luck. He was obviously going to need surgery sometime, and you really couldn't pick a better season to miss. Also they got a pretty decent look at what he can do hitting (assuming recent slump was injury related) and at first regularly.

I am concerned the Royals just can't spot talent to trade for, so not super excited for deadline or draft. I think you have suggested we might see some scouting/front office changes this offseason - I sure hope so.

When they recently acquired Beatty and a couple other infielders, I thought they might be trading someone, but maybe that was just the probability of Vinnie being out?

I know you had pegged Lopez as a more probable trade candidate, but does vinnies injury/need for infielders change that?

Can't remember if you thought MJ would get traded, but does he have much value right now?

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Oh never mind about Lopez question - had missed your tweet.

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I think that there is a way to look at Vinnie's injury positively. You pretty much know he can be a piece of a championship offense, so it opens up at bats for guys you aren't sure about. And yeah, there definitely seemed to be a pretty high possibility this would be the outcome before he re-injured himself, so why not do it now?

I think they're gearing up some to move guys. They also just promoted Samad Taylor, which is one of the reasons I don't think they need infield help. They've got plenty of infielders, with or without Vinnie.

As for Melendez, I'll be shocked if he isn't traded. I don't think it'll be during this season, but maybe. What I will say is if the Royals offered up their 24-year old with five years of control after this season, the majority of the league would call. Now, the return may not be what they'd think was necessary to move him, but just about all, if not all, teams would be interested.

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(and oh yeah)

Did anyone see/hear BWJ's recent comments about his hitting?

This is beyond paraphrase, but he basically said he was happy with his approach and would keep swinging like he had been (Think it was just before his good ABs the other night).

Is this a concern to anyone else? Because I am considering off the Bobby bandwagon after that interview

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