Crown Jewels: Successful Spring Meaning, The Handling of Maikel Garcia and My Belief In This Team

Spring training has gone almost as perfectly as you could hope for the Royals. It's fun this way.

With an exhibition game yesterday against Great Britain not counting in the ever-important Cactus League standings, the Royals quest for a spring title will resume this afternoon against the Padres. And whether you believe any of this is real (I’ll get to it shortly), you can’t deny that this has been quite a bit of fun. Wins are fun whether they matter or not and the Royals aren’t just winning but they’re shellacking some teams. In their last three games against big league teams, they’ve outscored their opponents 29-7 while striking out 35 and walking five. The Royals, as a team, struck out 35 batters in a three-game stretch exactly zero times last season. They did it six times in the Cal Eldred era, all in 2020 and 2021. They very well may have done it in spring training, though I feel like it would stick out. I don’t know. It’s just fun.

I think there are too many who maybe just don’t want to allow themselves to enjoy what they’re doing because it’s “just spring training.” It’s almost alarming to me how many people jump immediately at anything positive to remind others that it doesn’t matter or that the Royals do this every year (though they are generally quite good in spring). We all know what this is. Okay, most of us do. It doesn’t need to be drilled in every time someone says something good. I think my point is that while I’m not going to tell anyone how to “fan,” if you need permission to enjoy what this team is doing right here in this moment, I’ll give it to you. You’re allowed to know that it may not matter and may not lead to anything in the regular season and still have fun watching the team you root for succeed. And if you don’t want to, that’s cool too. I think most would agree I call the team out when the team needs to be called out, but I also truly don’t know what there is to call out right now. They are playing fantastic baseball, whether it counts for anything or not. And while that’s the case, I’m personally going to enjoy it.

Does Anything Matter in Spring?

Does a subhead in a notes article follow Betteridge’s Law of Headlines that states any headline that ends in a question mark can end in no? Does a first sentence? Does a sec…okay, I’ll stop. I actually think this breaks that law because spring isn’t entirely meaningless. Do I believe Edward Olivares is a .500 hitter or that Brady Singer will carry a 40+ percent strikeout rate? I promise I’ll stop asking question, and the answer is of course not, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything with meaning. The run differential for the Royals is currently +42. I went back to spring of 2015 and excluded 2020 and 2022 because they’re shortened springs to look at all teams with a run differential of +30 or better. There were 23 teams across six springs. Of those 23, 12 made the playoffs, 17 had winning records and 12 won 90 or more games.

Yes, there is a flip side. The Royals in 2019 were one of those teams with a run differential of +35 across the spring. There was one other team that lost 100+ games of the 23 teams and that was the 2016 Minnesota Twins. But the average record of the 23 teams was 86-76. Does this mean the Royals are going to finish 10 games over .500? Absolutely not. What I found especially interesting from this exercise is that only one team won between 70 and 82 games. Everyone else was either below 70 (five of the six losing records) or above 83. So, no, a great spring run differential guarantees nothing. But, run differential can tell a story that gets clearer and clearer with a larger sample and spring run differential isn’t terribly different.

We also know that strikeout and walk rates tend to normalize quicker than many other stats. Royals pitchers who matter (those on the 40-man and NRIs with a real shot to contribute) have a 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 7.7 percent walk rate through 13 games. Royals pitchers who I project to make the Opening Day roster have a 26.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate. They’re not facing exclusively big leaguers and there isn’t enough data to know whiff rates against big leaguers compared to minor leaguers, but that works. I can also tell you that they’re shining comparatively.

Heading into action yesterday, their team walk rate of 7.8 percent was fifth-best among all teams. Their 26.2 percent strikeout rate was fourth-best. And their strikeout-to-walk ratio was second-best. It’s not that I expect them to be a top-five staff using these metrics all season, but as I’ve said before, when you make a change and expect that change to lead to certain results and then you see those results, it’s hard not to take notice. The Royals have made big changes regarding their philosophy both on the mound and with their catchers with an eye on throwing more strikes and the results have followed. It’s hard not to buy in at least somewhat.

All spring caveats will always apply, but I go back to that article about how the Rays throw more strikes and the thing that stood out was just how quickly they “fixed” some pitchers. I know that we’re conditioned to believe the Rays are so much smarter than the Royals, so what they do doesn’t apply, but the Royals now have guys from the Rays. I think there’s something here even if it regresses a decent amount into the regular season.

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The Maikel Garcia Question

I find myself really struggling with Maikel Garcia this spring. On one hand, he’s been great. He’s 7 for 15 with a double and a home run after putting up a .323/.444/.498 line in the Venezuelan Winter League in 250 plate appearances. He went 1 for 1 with two walks yesterday in an exhibition that counts less than other exhibitions. I’ve heard some fun comps for him, including one I’ve mentioned here in the past - Tim Anderson with plate discipline. He’s a very good defensive shortstop and he even hit .274/.341/.463 in 186 plate appearances in AAA. It’s easy to look at that and think he should be in the big leagues right now at any position. But he’s also only 23 as of last week and has just 209 plate appearances above AA.

And given that he plays the same position as Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals are giving him a shot elsewhere. He’s played third and now center field this spring, and I think he’s worked out at second as well. The reports on him in center, in the limited time he’s been there, are that he’s taken to it pretty well. But it’s also a brand new position. I’ve written before that the best alignment for the Royals is probably Garcia at shortstop and Witt at third, but I don’t think it’s the worst thing in the world that the Royals are determined to find out if Witt can handle shortstop, both for them and for Wit. So this is where I struggle. Is it right to get them both on the field even if it turns out neither are in their best position? Or should the Royals leave both at the same position at different levels to have Garcia ready, just in case.

My gut is to leave Garcia at shortstop and let him go to AAA and prove he deserves that callup. I know those winter leagues are incredibly competitive and Garcia did well comparatively, but the pitching in that league isn’t exactly what he’ll see in the big leagues. And as much fun as spring training is, especially when they’re winning, all the typical warnings about evaluation from spring apply here. The sample is remarkably small, though he has faced better pitching, according to Baseball Reference, than many others on the team. I mentioned this in a conversation on Twitter, but I think we pay too much attention to the Opening Day roster (he says, having sent out three OD Roster Projections already this spring). If he’s up in mid-May and gets 450 plate appearances, does it really matter all that much that he wasn’t on the foul line on March 30?

So I do think the right answer is to leave Garcia at shortstop in AAA for now. But I also don’t have a problem with them moving him around a little bit. I think everyone has sort of fallen in love with him, and I totally get it, but there’s a chance he’s a utility man anyway and not a cog in an every day lineup, so there isn’t a lot of harm in seeing how he handles other spots. And, if Witt’s defense remains as good as evaluators say it has this spring, he’s ready to go at a different position whether he’s a starter or not. I think the Royals, right now, are handling this perfectly. I don’t think I’ll believe that if he goes to AAA and plays everywhere but short, but I do think they’re doing the right thing at this moment.

Why I Still Don’t Believe This Team Will Win

I opened up this week’s Crown Jewels talking about how great the Royals have been and how people need to stop being such a buzzkill. So now I’m going to be a buzzkill. My gut is that the Royals win somewhere between 71 and 76 games. I haven’t landed on a number yet. They’ve played great baseball and it’s been nearly perfect recently as they’ve been dominating, so that’s a good thing. But I still have too many questions about the full squad that I just can’t bring myself to think they will win 85+ games.

On the plus side, I think they have done what I expected them to do and they appear to have overhauled the bottom of the roster. Their worst reliever right now might be better than their fourth-best reliever at times in 2022. I see Daniel Lynch as the fifth starter and he was the third starter last year. I think the Drew Waters injury hurts the bottom of the roster argument on the position player side some, but they added some thump in the middle with Franmil Reyes and I think you feel pretty good about young guys taking a step forward. A guy like Nate Eaton is a role player unless he earns more time. That’s a big boost.

But still, I do worry about the bottom of the lineup. I feel confident in MJ Melendez, Witt, Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, though even typing that, I realize it’s three guys heading into their second seasons and only one of three is even heading into his second full season. But after that, while I like Michael Massey, Kyle Isbel and Edward Olivares, none have proven they can be even average and/or stay on the field. Hunter Dozier is someone who I have a soft spot for, but also has been bad for two years and was merely average in 2020. I liked the Reyes signing quite a bit, but there’s a reason he was available on a minor league deal.

I also worry about the upside in the rotation. Brady Singer was great the other day and obviously had an excellent 2022, but I can’t help but keep thinking that he didn’t even win a rotation spot last spring, and it wasn’t like that was a bad choice by the team. He didn’t deserve it. Lynch is obviously still a question mark. The reports on Keller have been outstanding, but he hasn’t been good in a full year since 2019. Can Zack Greinke continue to succeed in a way that most others can’t? Can Jordan Lyles be average? He’s had an ERA+ above 100 in one full season in his entire career. I just think there are too many questions and things that have a good chance to get exposed.

I will say two things to dispute everything I’ve just written. One, I think the bullpen is legit and will win this team games they shouldn’t win. And two, I think there is offensive upside to win more than I expect and more than I expected to believe there was. And no, it’s not because they’re hitting .337/.398/.571 as a team with an OPS more than 100 points higher than the second-best team and 142 points higher than the second-best Cactus League team. While spring stats can be a mirage, I’m digging the overall offensive approach and think it can lead to overachieving and I’m digging the strike-throwing on the pitching staff and think that can lead to overachieving. I think where I land now is that I don’t think they’ll be good, but I do believe they have the pieces to prove me wrong if it all clicks.