42 Comments

I feel like this season will be a lot like the 2022 orioles

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That would be a great outcome. The 2022 Orioles were one of the great season-to-season improvements, so I think it's important to remember that there can be improvement without there being 30+ win improvements and that's still great to see.

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I agree that this spring IS fun and am old enough to remember other good springs only to see Royals stink once the season actually mean anything, but I'm hoping that this different bunch of coaches can make a real difference. Am wishing this group don't remember the past smelly teams and carve out their own identity. You've got me checking the pitchers walks and strikeout as the 1st and most important thing when following them online, and they've been terrific!

My hope is for a really warm spring weather in KC.

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The nice thing is that the past teams really don't have much to do with this one since there are so few players still on the club. Even if you look at the 2019, there are only six guys still with the team. That's some pretty incredible turnover. I think the improvements they're making organizationally are very real and it'll pay off in a big way at some point.

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Enjoyable read. I believe this team will be fun to watch. Even if they're mediocre, they don't necessarily accept it which makes for some excitement.

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I think that's a great way to look at it. Even in a loss, there'll be entertainment with a better brand of baseball.

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Good observations. I believe the hitting improvement is real, just not the spring training line. I think we could be an above average offense with Reyes (think Kendrys Morales) and if the pitching could be just average, then we could get to 500. Of course, I've been a fan since 69 and I may still see through Royals tinted glasses.

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I think Rany said on the podcast with Soren that if the Royals had a top-seven (maybe eight?) pitching staff, they'd make the playoffs. I don't think so personally, but I do think that gets them to around .500, like you say, and that puts you in the conversation with six teams making it in. The Rays won 86 games and got in last year. 81-81 is only five games behind that. That's a rounding error in a long season, so you never know.

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I don't think the pitching can get there in one year, but the offense can. I see VP breaking out and having a year like we haven't seen since Mike Sweeny (320/400/525). A comp that no one has made is Joey Votto. BJW making a jump on both offense and defense, and a surprise from MJ, Kyle Isbel, or Massey. Salvy will be solid, and Reyes will bounce back. Olivares will get off to a great start with the bat and will trip over the newly enlarged bases, and pull both a hammy and suffer an oblique and miss 100 games.

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I still say Freddie Freeman on Vinnie, but I'd take Votto too for sure.

I think you're absolutely right that the offense can take a big step and I love the overall program they have in place for the hitting.

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Good column and you still managed not to predict how the Royals season will go. Although you seem to lean toward the Royals finishing under .500 there is hope. I think if KC stuggles out of the gate it will be a long season. If the Royals win early and gain some confidence l believe they could do well.

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I've been pretty consistent in my general range. I never give a full-on prediction until a lot closer to the end of spring. I need to see what guys look like playing back-to-back days and how they fare in full games, etc.

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You are in the unfortunate spot of writing about spring training and walking the line of being positive and realistic. I firmly side on the side of prove it during the regular season. I’m not going to poop on everything positive…I think we’ve just seen this dance from the Royals before. I’m more positive on the Royals now than I was three weeks ago. So its not like it spring doesn’t mean something. I think I’m over the Vegas number as well right now by at least a margin of a couple games. 73 wins seems right to me. I think pitching will be better, I think the offense will be ok. I don’t see them being above .500 because I don’t see the depth in any area. I think you pointed it out at one point but you wouldn’t expect a 95 loss team to have depth…so I get it. But more than what Witt, and Vinny, and Singer, Lynch can be. Injuries will be a problem for this team. They are younger….so you would think it wouldn’t quite as bad an issue…but when you see Waters go down and the next best thing to do is sign JBJ as insurance…..ehhh. Not a .500 team yet…but I think closer than last year with new staff. If Singer goes down, Houston…we have a problem. Lol

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I don't think it's unfortunate at all. Everything in spring is positive. And that's only a slight exaggeration. I think Waters being hurt is bad. Kowar and Heasley struggling has been bad. Just about everything else has been good.

I would point out that Waters went down and the depth is Olivares/Eaton. JBJ is the insurance for having to push one of those two up in the pecking order. I also think you can argue that if just about any team's best pitcher goes down, they have a problem. If Shane Bieber gets hurt, the Guardians aren't going to lose 100 games, but even with their pitching depth, they're probably in trouble. We saw what happened to the White Sox when Lance Lynn went down to start the year and took time to get right. I don't think it's that damning to say a team is in trouble if their best pitcher gets hurt is my point.

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True, here’s an interesting question though. Assuming Singer, Lyles, Greinke, Lynch, Keller are the starting 5. Which pitcher (not including Singer) is the biggest issue if goes down? Greinke is going down at some point….he just is going to be on the DL. So is it if Lyles goes down for a bit they are in the most trouble? They are deep in bullpen arms….gotta like that. They are not deep in starting arms yet. They HAVE arms….but only 1.5 quality arms. Keller I have to assume even if does give quality innings is only half a year. A lot of questions yet with the starters.

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I'm not sure why you're so sure Greinke will get hurt considering he barely ever had before. I mean, you're always going to have a chance to be right that a pitcher, especially an older one, gets hurt, but the history doesn't indicate it's a given like you're saying. But to answer your question, I think there is actually a plus side to it being a bunch of mediocre options (Lynch and Keller have upside still, but you get the point). If any one goes down, it probably doesn't mean any more than another one. I think if I had to handicap it, I'd say Lyles because he's the one likely to give innings and save the bullpen, but it could be any of the others. Maybe Lyles, Lynch, Greinke, Keller in that order.

I'm super interested to see how Jonathan Bowlan looks. I might write about this if I get a chance to talk about him again, but I've heard some good things about his movement on the back fields and it looks like he's back to pre-TJ form. Add him in to Angel Zerpa and then if either Sikkema or Beck Way can take a step, you suddenly start to have a little depth. No guarantees, but there are at least some interesting players who could step up.

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Greinke went on the DL twice last year I thought. I mean, there is no way JJ went into this year thinking Greinke was going to be healthy all year. That’s not a knock on Greinke but if you are expecting a 39/40 year old to be healthy during 6 months plus spring…come on JJ. 130 innings like last year is all you can be asking for in my opinion.

I ask because I never liked the Lyles signing. But if we are both handicapping it that Lyles might be the biggest issue if he goes down with the starting pitching….I can justify the signing you know? I don’t like the second year, but if he’s plugging that big a whole. I’ll give that one to you JJ.

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He did. I'm not saying he's for sure going to be healthy and his most recent history suggests he won't, but his longer history suggests he will, so I just don't think it's a guarantee.

The second year has always been the issue with Lyles to me. He's whatever, but he gives innings, which with the right coaching staff who can maximize a bullpen, I think has value. I believe they now have that right coaching staff, but I still don't know why they had to give him two years. I'd rather just take a shot with young guys over that, but what's done is done there.

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Very enjoyable column. Thank you. I have only one substantive thought to add: it makes zero sense to me to have Hunter Dozier start at 3rd and send Mikail Garcia to the minors. I think it is pretty clear Garcia will hit at least as well as Dozier. (Not a super high bar.) And its blindingly obvious he will be a much better defensive 3rd baseman. Dozier is yet another incarnation of the sunk cost fallacy that the Royals still maybe don't quite understand. (Last great example: Carlos Santana). It is past time to move on.

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I don't think there's any harm in Garcia spending time at AAA. How many prospects have people been up in arms about being rushed? If he's part of the future and 2023 isn't the year that they believe they'll win, why not make sure he's ready while you have a placeholder. And if that placeholder can be like your example and bring back something in a trade if he gets it going, all the better. I just don't see it as that big of a deal or some roster travesty.

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I hear you. But I disagree (I think). Imagine this scenario: Dozier has some issues at 3rd but isn't a total disaster; he's hitting a bit better than the last couple years, getting some walks, showing decent to good power. Garcia meanwhile is having a very solid year in AAA, but not totally spectacular. And Witt is awesome. I can easily imagine this scenario leading to Garcia spending most of the year in AAA and getting discouraged. Most important, he is not getting ML experience against big league pitching, or making connections with players on the big-league team, or getting instruction from major league coaches.

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And if that happens, it’s potentially a problem. The other side of this is that Garcia is not a sure fire starter prospect. There are plenty who believe he’s a big leaguer but not an everyday player, so this is potentially a lot of consternation over nothing.

That said, I wouldn’t worry about the connections or the instruction. If the organization is well-run, the instruction is consistent throughout and the connections can be made later.

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I think he will be a very good ML player. I like his defense, like that he draws walks and am impressed by his power surge after moving up to AAA last year. But who knows, right? Ultimately, we are all relying on semi-educated guesses and hunches.

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I like the player. If I had to guess, I'd say he's an every day player. But I've also had way smarter people than me tell me they think he'll get exposed. I'm just saying that it's not like he's a slam dunk prospect.

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Great post David. "Doesnt count" definitely is not the same as "doesnt matter" when it comes to Spring Training. Still, I was surprised to see such a strong a correlation between ST winning pct vs regular season, probably from being misled by the Royals track record specifically. Many ST games are decided by non regular starters. However this still would indicate the overall ST organizational roster is stronger (my MiLB players are better than yours...). To that point, the team you mentioned, the 16 Twins, was well above .500 for 2017-2020. Perhaps the players winning games in the spring of 16 were the ones leading to wins in 17-20? Idk, but to paraphrase George Brett from the game the other day, I prefer winning to losing in ST.

100% agree on Garcia. Too few ABs above A level to rush him. There are 4 spots now where any sort of injury could open up a spot for him on the MLB roster. Odds of that occurring are unfortunately good. Let him (hopefully) tear it up at AAA for a few months until something opens up. If I'm the Royals GM, I'm playing him everyday at Omaha at either SS 3B 2B or CF.

The only way the Royals exceed .500 is if nearly all of their hitters reach their potential. The SP isn't strong enough. If you realistically compare the Royal's rotation to the best rotations in the AL...... A lot of things have to come together for them to be better than .500.

But it's Spring Training and right now the Royals have the best ST record and are tied for the best regular season record in baseball. Hope springs eternal. Go Royals!

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I will never forget what Jon Heyman said in 2011. He was asked who the best team in spring training was that year and he said it was the 2013 Royals. I think the correlation is a little off this time around because a bunch of the guys who would be a part of a championship team are likely already in the big leagues, but that's stuck with me for a long time.

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It's really exciting to see them playing this good. I just hope Pratto is still part of their plans. He's not even being discussed anymore. Probably best defense guy this organization has. With real power. He should be on this roster. With defense like that, you can live with the strike outs. You probably disagree but the guy cam save multiple games at first and win some just his glove alone. Also on a side note, if Loftin, Gentry, Garcia, Pratto plus the catcher( forgot his name) all end up at Omaha together. That's a hell of a squad also.

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Pratto is absolutely part of the plans. I think Reyes is honestly Pratto insurance and basically the guy who can fill in until Pratto is ready to contribute without so many swings and misses. I don't have a problem with him being in AAA to start the year as long as they acknowledge it's temporary and not the start of him being forgotten. But yes, that would be a really fun infield. I'm guessing you're talking about Fermin for the catcher, by the way.

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I think the problem with Pratto is...Vinnie (for now). Vinnie absolutely has to be in the lineup, and until/unless Pratto is at that level, his defense won't win as many games as Vinnie's bat.

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There's a path for both, but it's for Vinnie to DH and for Pratto to play the outfield some when Salvy is the DH. That path is blocked for the moment by Reyes, but he's not a long-term solution either.

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Excellent insight as always! I am one who believes that confidence is contagious. And that's what I see. Players feeding off each other's success. What could Oliveras do if healthy for a year? Can Vinnie continue on last year's success? If MJ had his numbers, will he become a trade target? Would Bobby and the team be receptive to a move to third got Garcia? I know there are a lot of IF questions, but with the results, even in small sample size, continue, this is going to be a fun team to watch in future years!

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I definitely agree that winning can absolutely lead to more winning. As for MJ, I think he's almost certainly a piece they move at some point. I don't know when, but sometime. And the thing about Witt is that I believe they're playing him at short to see, both for them and for him. Give him the job and see what happens. If he is a good shortstop, I think it's more valuable to keep him happy even if the better alignment is with him at third. If he's not good, I think they have to make the move and I think they would, but they don't have the answer yet.

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I’ve been hunting news on Michael Massey’s status after the injury at bat Wednesday. Hopefully the lack of means he just had a bad bruise and nothing broken.

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All we know is it's a contusion and he's day-to-day, but I'd assume there was also swelling, so I don't think they know for sure, but initial signs are good.

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Thank you

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I know it’s only spring training but I’m absolutely loving what they’re doing. I really believe this team has a shot to be better than expected. Great column!

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Thanks, Paul! They do look good right now!

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I’d like to see Garcia start at Omaha and split time between SS and CF. Maybe more at SS but a couple starts a week in CF. Both spots are question marks at the moment, and depending on how it goes it would be good to have him ready and able whenever he truly shows he’s ready.

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I think that's a reasonable split for him. Makes sense to me.

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If BWJ is going to play SS until he proves he can't, I want Garcia playing daily at 3B and CF in spring training. If he doesn't make the opening day roster, I want him playing SS, 3B, and CF in the minors and being ready to be the first position player call up in the face of an injury. At 23, I want to see if he is part of our future regardless of position.

If he makes the opening day roster, I think he should be our every day 9 hitter and set the table for the top of the order. Low stress, prove it and get rewarded with batting higher.

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That’s fine if he’s playing other positions. I just think it’s fair to not be sure he’s ready to go based on an extremely small sample.

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Optimism with a bit of pessimism. Realism is what I call it.

I'm an almost 60 year old fan that likes nothing more than to sit down and listen to a Royals game. I occasionally get to watch a game (since I have lived in Florida for more than 30 years) but mostly just like to sit and listen to the Royals. I remember when the stadiums were being built when I was a kid and I've been a fan ever since.

I enjoy that stats side of things and appreciate the Inside the Crown columns that give me things to think about but no matter whether it's spring training or the regular season, I'll never give up my loyalty to the Royals. They've been anywhere from good, to bad, to mediocre in my life but they will always be a part of my life.

Here's to 2023 a a (hopefully) better version of the Royals.

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