Crown Jewels: The State of the System, Extensions Coming and Full Powder

The Royals farm system is not exactly thought of too highly, but one expert thinks it's not as bad as other. Plus, some extension talk and some uniform talk.

I feel like this particular spot in this weekly newsletter article has been almost a countdown. Well, friends, we’ve almost made it. The next edition of Crown Jewels will hit your inbox after spring training has begun, even if it’s just a bunch of guys stretching on a field. As I’ve said before, it certainly helps that the Chiefs have gone as far as they can go in the NFL season (if you’re one of the many who overlaps in fandom), but the start of spring training is such a joyous time for me. I don’t know how you all celebrate, but I start watching a lot of baseball movies, read baseball books and just dive head first into everything baseball to prepare. The one thing I don’t do much of is fantasy baseball. I’m really bad at it. I think I’m too entrenched in the game and my decisions end up too granular. But hey, I’m just happy that baseball is almost back.

After the Royals Rally last week that I didn’t attend, it sounds like the Royals are pretty much done going after roster tweaks. That doesn’t mean they won’t make any more moves, but they aren’t going to be the ones pursuing those moves. It’s easy to say that’s a mistake as they still have some pieces that could and/or should be moved, but maybe they’ve made offers and haven’t found anything they like. The one I get asked about more than anyone is, of course, Hunter Dozier. JJ Picollo said last week that the plan is for him to play third base. I’m going to have a roster projection next week where I’ll dive into that more, but I’d take that with a small grain of salt both because a lot can change and where guys are on March 30 is no guarantee of where they’ll be on April 30, May 30, etc.

The Royals System Has Mixed Reviews

One of the trademarks of the late offseason is prospect lists. That includes team lists, top-100 lists and just ranking the team systems as a whole. For the Royals, they have two players that I can find who have been ranked in basically any top-100 list (or 101 in the case of Baseball Prospectus) and they are Gavin Cross and Maikel Garcia. And I think Garcia has only been on one list. That’s not great! On some farm system rankings, the Royals are 28th on ESPN by Kiley McDaniel. They’re 24th on the Prospects 1500 list. I don’t believe the rankings have come out on Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America, but Keith Law ranked his systems on The Athletic and he was a lot more complimentary. He had them as the 16th best system and vindicated some thoughts that I’ve had that made me wonder if I was being a bit of a homer.

The Royals placed just one guy on my top 100, but I love the depth in this system and its capacity for a big improvement overall in the next year. The class of high school pitchers they took in 2021 hasn’t made its mark yet, but the top two guys they took, lefty Frank Mozzicato and righty Ben Kudrna, still have the same upside the Royals saw in high school — they aren’t all Andrew Painters. There’s some catching depth, some outfield depth, a lot of athletes, and some more arms than I mentioned. It’s a big challenge for the Royals’ player development group, but also means they could make a big move in the next 12 months — and they’ve done some great stuff with hitting prospects in the past two years.

He gave more information in his top-20 team prospects. Everyone loves Cross, but he has Nick Loftin higher than anyone I’ve seen and even had him as just outside his top-100. That was a bit of a surprise to me. I think where Law might differ from a lot of the other prospect sites is that he seems to be completely bought in to the Royals offensive development plan. His write-up of Drew Waters was something I never thought I’d read as a Royals fan.

The Royals are probably the best org for him to end up with, given the success they’ve had with improving hitters’ plans and recognition at the plate in the last two years. The odds are against him hitting enough to be more than a fourth outfielder, given just how far he has to go with his approach, but I give the Royals a better chance than almost anyone to fix him.

There’s a respected prospect analyst out there praising their development system for something? Not only is he praising it but he called the Royals the “best” organization he could have ended up with. I’m a believer in what they’re doing. I know a lot of people still want to see more results at the big league level and I think they’re coming, but Law appears to be 100 percent all-in on this, which is really cool for me to see. I think it’s interesting that he’s a little higher on some guys than others and seems to really be a fan of Ben Kudrna, but it’s nice to see an “expert” saying things that I’ve said and thought about a maligned system.

Ultimately it doesn’t mean anything. They’re just words. Yes, it’s better to be a top-five system than not in the bigger picture, but I appreciate the fact that there is both upside and some reliability still in the system for the Royals. The star power has largely graduated, but even with a middle-tier system at best, it’s important to note how many players the team has under control through 2028 or later. I expect the system to rise pretty quickly this year with some of the changes on the pitching side, but it’s just nice to see something praising them after seeing a lot on the negative side.

Extension SZN?

Something else that came from Royals Rally last weekend was a comment from Picollo that Anne Rogers reported:

Anne Rogers @anne__rogers

#Royals have started exploring extensions for their young core of players and will continue to do so over the next year, Picollo said. Brady Singer, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are in that group.

If I had to pick three of the guys I’d be talking about an extension with, those are three of the first four I’d name. There’s one missing and I’ll get to him, but I want to highlight these three first and what I’ve heard along with what I think will happen.

Brady Singer

This is the one that I’ve reported on before they’re talking about a couple of options with him. I don’t know when his arbitration hearing is set for, but they do have a slight time crunch to get something done if they want to avoid that because hearings are happening. From what I understand, they’d love to lock him up into his free agent years, but there’s also some traction on covering arbitration seasons for the simple reason of cost certainty on both ends. I can understand being cautious here. As I’ve said before, a year ago we wondered if Singer was even going to be in the rotation (and he wasn’t until May). Now he’s the best pitcher on the staff. It’s a lot in one year. My guess is something gets done, but I don’t know that it beats his arbitration hearing.

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Bobby Witt Jr.

This is the trickiest one of the bunch. Witt wants to be paid like a top-three prospect who has made good on his potential already. And I completely understand that mindset. The problem is he was average offensively and kind of horrible defensively. He showed what could make him a top player in baseball in all categories last season, but I think it would be difficult to commit the kind of money the Mariners committed to Julio Rodriguez for a player with the seventh-lowest walk rate in baseball among qualified hitters.

Let’s look at that Rodriguez deal for a second because I think there’s some framework there. It starts off at eight years and $129.3 million if I’m reading it right. There’s a player option from 2030-2034 that is $90 million for those five years but can bump as high as $125 million. But the Mariners actually hold a club option that they can trigger after 2028 that is based on MVP finishes that can go as high as 10 years and $350 million. If the Mariners decline that option, there’s a mutual option for seven years and $168 million that comes after the 2029 season. If you’re confused, don’t worry. It’s a lot of money. And I would imagine Witt wants to be in that ballpark.

So what do you do if you’re the Royals? Do you pay a guy based on what he believes he can be? Do you pay him based on what you think he can be (if it’s different)? Or do you pay him based on what he’s done? My guess, and it’s just that, is that the Royals are probably somewhere between the second and third options and Witt’s people are sticking with the first, as they should. The two sides have been in contact. I know that for a fact. And that’s great. It’s just a tricky proposition and I can promise you it won’t get done because of that.

Vinnie Pasquantino

This is the one I’d do yesterday but I think the Royals will wait on. I don’t hate them waiting because the arbitration market isn’t going to go absolutely nuts on him unless he starts hitting a ton of home runs. But even then, he won’t reach arbitration until after the 2025 season, so there is some definite wiggle room. In my opinion, I see a basically surefire middle-of-the-order bat, a guy who fits as the face of a franchise who is already a fan favorite and someone who won’t break the bank because he’s a first baseman/DH. From things I’ve heard, the Royals just want to see him do it again after he showed out in his first taste of the big leagues. If anyone was going to sign a midseason contract extension, I’d bet on Pasquantino, but maybe there’s something they can squeak out before Opening Day.

MJ Melendez

He’s the one who wasn’t named. Why? Scott Boras is why. If I had to bet on a player who the Royals trade to fill in gaps on their roster over the next three seasons, it would be Melendez because. don’t think they believe there’s much of a shot of him signing an extension. It’s not that Boras clients never do, but they rarely do. So my recommendation is to enjoy him while you can because he’s likely going to bring back someone to anchor the rotation for the 2026 season or something like that.

Powder Power

I haven’t really talked much about this before even though it was announced last week, but I love that the Royals are adding the powder blue pants to the powder blue jersey. They say it’s only for Opening Day, but if they’re smart, they absolutely should keep it as a regular look. When they brought back the powder blue jerseys some 15 years ago, I loved the look, but it just felt incomplete. Now it’s complete and I can’t wait to see them in action seven weeks from yesterday. I think the uniform stuff is pretty interesting because I wonder a bit how much of the rigidity in what they wore came from Dayton Moore.

Not to pile on the guy who was fired, but he was very much a proponent of wearing the standard uniforms for night games, the alternate uniform for day games and not deviating. Teams have their routines for sure, but maybe the powder blue pants are a sign they’re changing from that a little bit too. I had heard a rumor last year that they were pairing powder blue pants with the City Connect uniforms, so maybe that’s a combination they go to this year at some point. I’m not quite sure how I feel about that, but you never know, right?