The Royals farm system is not exactly thought of too highly, but one expert thinks it's not as bad as other. Plus, some extension talk and some uniform talk.
Like you, I read Keith Law's ranking which was a more optimistic take than some of the other experts. I also put more faith in Law's analysis - I think he's one of the most thorough and experienced out there. Let's hope his view is right. How quickly do you think Gavin Cross realistic makes it to the ML level? I struggle to see how we consistently score enough runs with the current projected lineup - just not enough guys who can hit with power and generate RBI's.
I think Law is very thorough, and I think his evaluation was hampered by not getting to see as many guys, but I feel like he was able to get out there as much as he used to this past season, so it's interesting.
As for Cross, I think it's possible he could be up late in 2023, but I wouldn't count on it. My guess if all goes well is that he comes to camp in 2024 with a chance to make the team and if he doesn't, we'll see him within the first couple of months.
I think the lineup has a pretty wide range of outcomes and they're dependent on young hitters, which can be a risk proposition, especially in year two. Pasquantino, to me, is already a guy to count on. Salvy will hit homers. Can Melendez and Witt take that step. If they can, they'll be just fine. I think there's nice complementary talent with Waters, Massey, Isbel, etc., but they need the guys who they think will be stars to get closer to that in 2023. It's certainly possible and maybe even somewhat likely, but it just hasn't happened yet, so we don't know.
I would not try to extend bobby witt yet. I really didn't like what I saw from him. Like you said. He want to be paid on what he thinks he's going to be. Also like you said he was average offensively and pretty bad defensively. The thing that bothers me about him is his high strikeout rate, low walk rate and terrible OBP and his defense. I know. He's only 22 and will get better but I don't think he'll ever be the offensive force that pasquintino will be. He's already shown he has the tools to be a great offensive player. He's a high contact hitter and probably always will be. To me he's a better risk to extend than Witt. As far as singer goes he needs to.have at least one more decent year before they do anything. The majority of pitchers in baseball just don't seem to last very long and he doesn't have enough of a track record yet. (See Danny duffy). Don't pay until they prove they can.play. KC doesn't have the best track record with extentions. Melendez I don't like at all. He can't hit and he can't defend. Their entire outfield looks bad for next year. A couple of them have shown some decent defence but all of them strikeout a lot and so far haven't shown they can hit yet. You throw Melendez in the mix and he brings the defense down a lot. I'm just not a fan of extentions until they prove themselves. These guys are young. They need to keep them hungry.
In my view of the farm system, it's not as good as Mr. Law projects, but not as bad as the others suggest. There is talent and i, for one, am looking forward to what new coaching is going to do. There is a past relationship between Brady and pitching staff, so I expect him to improve on last year. It almost sounds like the entire culture has already changed and players are buying in. The shifting is going to help many players, Vinnie being one of them. I am really tired of seeing ground outs to right field. This is not softball! They say the base size will help Witt with stolen bases, but that remains for debate. May not make him a 30/30 player, but I would be happy with 25/25. I also think his extension will come, but continued performance will be a primary factor. Plus, I sincerely believe he likes it here and that will play a big part. Just look at the developing friendship with Mahomes. MJ is another story. I believe I commented last year too one of your articles about him and what I perceive as an attitude of not caring. No enthusiasm. We all know how I Boras can be. Like you, I believe he will be paired with over or the excess outfielders for a pitching upgrade.
It is always about the money. How's many players spend 10+ years with the same team anymore?
I think there's probably a middle ground, but as I wrote, it's important to keep in mind that the system was top-five last year and all those guys are no longer prospects but are under team control through at least 2027 with most 2028 and beyond.
You say that the bigger bases may not make Witt a 30/30 guy, but he already had the 30 with the previous bases, so it might help him get to 40. Of course, getting on base more will get him a lot closer to that.
I think I argued with your assessment of Melendez last year and I'll argue again. That's his demeanor. The guy is an extremely hard worker and I can promise you he cares and has enthusiasm. It's a dangerous game judging people by what you see through a television and I think you're way off the mark with Melendez and his attitude.
I don't know. I'd probably go pretty far to meet Bobby's wishes. Players in general aren't going to get any cheaper, so the Royals would be well served to lock him in around $20 million per year right now. Plus, I feel good about his floor. If they can get him to become a league-average shortstop, we're talking about a 3-win player annually even if his offense doesn't improve at all ... which seems unlikely.
I generally agree with you, but I don't get the sense there's any middle ground just yet. Witt wants the massive deal and the Royals don't want to go there yet, which I totally understand. He's clearly a special talent. He does things you don't see a lot of guys do, especially when you realize he can do all of them. But also, let's say he's a three-win player and you're paying him like a six-win player, which is how he wants to be paid (and should want that, I might add). I think that's getting yourself in trouble when you consider how long the deal would have to be also. I'm not married to either side of they should or shouldn't, but I absolutely understand why it's not likely to happen for a bit.
Guess i was so wrapped up in always hearing 20/20 I forgot he did steal 30 last year. That is my fault.
I will never question any athlete's work ethic that has made it to the top in their sport. Yes appearances can be deceiving. Yes, you have greater insight than those of us who rely on what we see or what we read. But, that is what makes this great! We all have opinions and as long as open minds are kept, spirited discussions will happen. Do i love MJ's talent? Absolutely. I remember a comment you made about enthusiasm. In my humble opinion, I believe that showing enthusiasm [Salvy and Vinnie] can elevate those around you. You have enthusiasm for what you do, that brings out people like me with our opinions and I thank you for your insight. Being retired, when I check email, yours is the first I look for. Thanks for what you do sir!
I think there are different types of players. I don't think anyone would say that Alex Gordon was the rah rah guy, but can you imagine those Royals teams without him? I do think certain players are great for the clubhouse, but it doesn't mean that the guys who aren't like that are bad for the rest of the team.
I'm a fan but I'm not what you would call baseball savvy so I don't understand all the lingo about extensions, arbitration, etc., but I do enjoy reading your emails! Would it be possible for you to provide a list of the players that shows how long we have them locked up or under contract (or whatever the term is 🥺)? Kind of a Baseball for Dummies version...LOL!! I know I'm in the minority here so you may not have time for this nonsense, but just thought I'd ask. 😁
There are actually a few great resources out there. Cot's Contracts is great for all contract details. Roster Resource on Fangraphs shows options and years of service time. Basically a player is under team control until they've accrued at least six years of service time. Before that, they're either pre-arb or in arbitration. That's a more difficult line to explain, but with a few exceptions, anyone with less than three years of service time is pre-arb and three or more is arbitration eligible every year. I hope that helps!
Interesting tidbit on Melendez being a Boras client and not even mentioned in the ones they are looking to possibly extend. It seems the longer this goes the more and more likely it is he is the one traded isn’t it? Unless you are going to move on from Salvy, Melendez appears to be the odd man out. Even if he plays outfield adequately if the Royals aren’t any good in the next couple of years you are getting towards the back end of his control by then. Gotta hope he is an average to above average bat and able to move him. I’m not saying this year or next year even…but at some point if you aren’t going to sign him he will be the one moved before Vinny or Witt it appears.
I think Melendez is absolutely the player they'll move when the time is right. That could be after 2023 or after 2025 or any number of times, but unless something changes, I don't get the impression he's going to be with the Royals for the long haul.
While I think getting listed in the top 100 is good...I don't take it too seriously given that so many players that have not been highest rated prospects excell in the bigs and even make the Hall of Fame.... it all comes down to organizational development. Its nice that someone thinks the Royals are on the right track.
While it's absolutely true that it isn't a guarantee of success, I think if you look at the top 100 from, say 2015 - https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2015-top-100-prospects/ - you'll see that they often get it right. I count 17 guys on that list who have signed for multiple years and $50 million+ with a handful of others who will likely join them in a year. I do agree that organizational development is what ultimately matters, but I do think the prospect lists get a lot right.
Like you, I read Keith Law's ranking which was a more optimistic take than some of the other experts. I also put more faith in Law's analysis - I think he's one of the most thorough and experienced out there. Let's hope his view is right. How quickly do you think Gavin Cross realistic makes it to the ML level? I struggle to see how we consistently score enough runs with the current projected lineup - just not enough guys who can hit with power and generate RBI's.
I think Law is very thorough, and I think his evaluation was hampered by not getting to see as many guys, but I feel like he was able to get out there as much as he used to this past season, so it's interesting.
As for Cross, I think it's possible he could be up late in 2023, but I wouldn't count on it. My guess if all goes well is that he comes to camp in 2024 with a chance to make the team and if he doesn't, we'll see him within the first couple of months.
I think the lineup has a pretty wide range of outcomes and they're dependent on young hitters, which can be a risk proposition, especially in year two. Pasquantino, to me, is already a guy to count on. Salvy will hit homers. Can Melendez and Witt take that step. If they can, they'll be just fine. I think there's nice complementary talent with Waters, Massey, Isbel, etc., but they need the guys who they think will be stars to get closer to that in 2023. It's certainly possible and maybe even somewhat likely, but it just hasn't happened yet, so we don't know.
I would not try to extend bobby witt yet. I really didn't like what I saw from him. Like you said. He want to be paid on what he thinks he's going to be. Also like you said he was average offensively and pretty bad defensively. The thing that bothers me about him is his high strikeout rate, low walk rate and terrible OBP and his defense. I know. He's only 22 and will get better but I don't think he'll ever be the offensive force that pasquintino will be. He's already shown he has the tools to be a great offensive player. He's a high contact hitter and probably always will be. To me he's a better risk to extend than Witt. As far as singer goes he needs to.have at least one more decent year before they do anything. The majority of pitchers in baseball just don't seem to last very long and he doesn't have enough of a track record yet. (See Danny duffy). Don't pay until they prove they can.play. KC doesn't have the best track record with extentions. Melendez I don't like at all. He can't hit and he can't defend. Their entire outfield looks bad for next year. A couple of them have shown some decent defence but all of them strikeout a lot and so far haven't shown they can hit yet. You throw Melendez in the mix and he brings the defense down a lot. I'm just not a fan of extentions until they prove themselves. These guys are young. They need to keep them hungry.
In my view of the farm system, it's not as good as Mr. Law projects, but not as bad as the others suggest. There is talent and i, for one, am looking forward to what new coaching is going to do. There is a past relationship between Brady and pitching staff, so I expect him to improve on last year. It almost sounds like the entire culture has already changed and players are buying in. The shifting is going to help many players, Vinnie being one of them. I am really tired of seeing ground outs to right field. This is not softball! They say the base size will help Witt with stolen bases, but that remains for debate. May not make him a 30/30 player, but I would be happy with 25/25. I also think his extension will come, but continued performance will be a primary factor. Plus, I sincerely believe he likes it here and that will play a big part. Just look at the developing friendship with Mahomes. MJ is another story. I believe I commented last year too one of your articles about him and what I perceive as an attitude of not caring. No enthusiasm. We all know how I Boras can be. Like you, I believe he will be paired with over or the excess outfielders for a pitching upgrade.
It is always about the money. How's many players spend 10+ years with the same team anymore?
I think there's probably a middle ground, but as I wrote, it's important to keep in mind that the system was top-five last year and all those guys are no longer prospects but are under team control through at least 2027 with most 2028 and beyond.
You say that the bigger bases may not make Witt a 30/30 guy, but he already had the 30 with the previous bases, so it might help him get to 40. Of course, getting on base more will get him a lot closer to that.
I think I argued with your assessment of Melendez last year and I'll argue again. That's his demeanor. The guy is an extremely hard worker and I can promise you he cares and has enthusiasm. It's a dangerous game judging people by what you see through a television and I think you're way off the mark with Melendez and his attitude.
I don't know. I'd probably go pretty far to meet Bobby's wishes. Players in general aren't going to get any cheaper, so the Royals would be well served to lock him in around $20 million per year right now. Plus, I feel good about his floor. If they can get him to become a league-average shortstop, we're talking about a 3-win player annually even if his offense doesn't improve at all ... which seems unlikely.
TL;DR It isn't my money.
I generally agree with you, but I don't get the sense there's any middle ground just yet. Witt wants the massive deal and the Royals don't want to go there yet, which I totally understand. He's clearly a special talent. He does things you don't see a lot of guys do, especially when you realize he can do all of them. But also, let's say he's a three-win player and you're paying him like a six-win player, which is how he wants to be paid (and should want that, I might add). I think that's getting yourself in trouble when you consider how long the deal would have to be also. I'm not married to either side of they should or shouldn't, but I absolutely understand why it's not likely to happen for a bit.
Guess i was so wrapped up in always hearing 20/20 I forgot he did steal 30 last year. That is my fault.
I will never question any athlete's work ethic that has made it to the top in their sport. Yes appearances can be deceiving. Yes, you have greater insight than those of us who rely on what we see or what we read. But, that is what makes this great! We all have opinions and as long as open minds are kept, spirited discussions will happen. Do i love MJ's talent? Absolutely. I remember a comment you made about enthusiasm. In my humble opinion, I believe that showing enthusiasm [Salvy and Vinnie] can elevate those around you. You have enthusiasm for what you do, that brings out people like me with our opinions and I thank you for your insight. Being retired, when I check email, yours is the first I look for. Thanks for what you do sir!
I think there are different types of players. I don't think anyone would say that Alex Gordon was the rah rah guy, but can you imagine those Royals teams without him? I do think certain players are great for the clubhouse, but it doesn't mean that the guys who aren't like that are bad for the rest of the team.
Thanks for reading!
I'm a fan but I'm not what you would call baseball savvy so I don't understand all the lingo about extensions, arbitration, etc., but I do enjoy reading your emails! Would it be possible for you to provide a list of the players that shows how long we have them locked up or under contract (or whatever the term is 🥺)? Kind of a Baseball for Dummies version...LOL!! I know I'm in the minority here so you may not have time for this nonsense, but just thought I'd ask. 😁
Thanks!
Catie
There are actually a few great resources out there. Cot's Contracts is great for all contract details. Roster Resource on Fangraphs shows options and years of service time. Basically a player is under team control until they've accrued at least six years of service time. Before that, they're either pre-arb or in arbitration. That's a more difficult line to explain, but with a few exceptions, anyone with less than three years of service time is pre-arb and three or more is arbitration eligible every year. I hope that helps!
That is very helpful and I will check out the resources you mention.
Thank you!
Interesting tidbit on Melendez being a Boras client and not even mentioned in the ones they are looking to possibly extend. It seems the longer this goes the more and more likely it is he is the one traded isn’t it? Unless you are going to move on from Salvy, Melendez appears to be the odd man out. Even if he plays outfield adequately if the Royals aren’t any good in the next couple of years you are getting towards the back end of his control by then. Gotta hope he is an average to above average bat and able to move him. I’m not saying this year or next year even…but at some point if you aren’t going to sign him he will be the one moved before Vinny or Witt it appears.
I think Melendez is absolutely the player they'll move when the time is right. That could be after 2023 or after 2025 or any number of times, but unless something changes, I don't get the impression he's going to be with the Royals for the long haul.
While I think getting listed in the top 100 is good...I don't take it too seriously given that so many players that have not been highest rated prospects excell in the bigs and even make the Hall of Fame.... it all comes down to organizational development. Its nice that someone thinks the Royals are on the right track.
While it's absolutely true that it isn't a guarantee of success, I think if you look at the top 100 from, say 2015 - https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2015-top-100-prospects/ - you'll see that they often get it right. I count 17 guys on that list who have signed for multiple years and $50 million+ with a handful of others who will likely join them in a year. I do agree that organizational development is what ultimately matters, but I do think the prospect lists get a lot right.
Good stuff...as always.
Thank you!
Powder blue YES.
City connect NO!