Crown Jewels: Trade Updates, Outfield Whimpers and the Big, Bad Yankees

The Royals lost another series, but we're used to that. We should talk about the important things like who they'll trade.

This Royals season is that video game you played as a kid (or maybe last week, no judgment) where things just are going as wrong as possible, so you just exit the game and start it over. It doesn’t matter what they do. Nothing is right. I don’t know what percentage is fully their fault and what percentage is just things not going their way, but I can tell you it’s a lot more on them than on luck but luck isn’t blameless. Of course, that’s how it always goes. A team doesn’t win the World Series without some good luck to get there and a team doesn’t miss the playoffs without some bad luck.

So there’s a somewhat reasonable gamble you could take heading into next season that at least some of these things will turn around on their own. I’ve written countless times how hard it is to lose 100 games no matter how easy this team is making it look. But it still is hard. I guess what I’m saying is that while I’ve learned over my years to not wish my life away, I wouldn’t be too upset if we could just fast forward through the last two-plus months of this season so we can just get to some of the natural turnaround of a new season. Because, man, this is just brutal to watch sometimes (most of the time?). On the bright side, there is something to look forward to. It’s the trade deadline!

Some Trade Updates

Things got super quiet on the trade front for awhile. The draft was taking a lot of attention from front offices and then the break hit. I would anticipate some movement to start happening as we’re now just 11 days from the deadline on August 1. In the American League, only three, maybe four, teams don’t feel like they have a legitimate shot at making the postseason. Obviously the Royals and A’s are the main ones, but the White Sox have to know they’re toast too. The Tigers may feel like they can go on a run, but I’d hope they realize they likely can’t. They’re in the spot the Royals could have been in had they played to the projections and I’m actually glad they aren’t.

The National League isn’t quite as jumbled, but there are still just four teams who I think will sell - Washington, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Colorado. The Mets should sell. The Padres maybe too. But both of those teams have a lot invested in them and both theoretically should be better. That’s particularly true of the Padres given that they seem to be a bit fluky in their sub-.500 record. So that’s seven for-sure sellers. Some teams - the Angels, Mariners and Cubs - are on the border as well, so they can potentially join the fray, which means there will be 11 teams selling at most.

That leaves 19 teams to buy. And while the Royals don’t have a game-changer to deal this deadline, they do have some pieces that teams have at least been interested in. There is the obvious trade candidate in Scott Barlow. I know that people are convinced he destroyed all of his value on Tuesday night, but the fact is that he didn’t and I know directly of two teams interested who didn’t change their viewpoints at all after that outing. I’m confident that’s a common viewpoint, it’s just that those are the two who I actually spoke with about him.

The suitors are pretty easy to figure out. The Dodgers could use some help. The Rangers could still use help. The Angels, if they decide to buy, need help in their bullpen. And to varying levels of need, the Diamondbacks, Cubs (if they buy), Marlins, Reds, Phillies and Brewers all could be on the lookout for a late-inning reliever. At least two of those teams see Barlow as a closer. Some likely see him more as a setup man, which works with what we’ve seen from Barlow in the past and being able to pitch multiple innings. Either way, the market is very much there for him.

In addition to him, Nicky Lopez is a name I’ve heard quite a bit, and I think at this point I lean toward being surprised if he isn’t traded, which is kind of a switch from the past. I’m not saying it’s like 95 percent he’s moved, but there are a few teams who I’ve heard connected with him. One that’s kind of surprising is the Astros, who obviously have a pretty stout starting infield, but could absolutely use some depth. But the Red Sox, Brewers and Dodgers have all also come up and I wouldn’t be surprised if other teams are interested.

The other name I keep hearing that some people don’t want to believe but should is Edward Olivares. Burn his gloves, but the guy can hit and there are worse things a team can do than add his bat to their offensive rotation. I think about a lineup with a guy like him in the bottom-third and I think I’d be pretty concerned about facing that team. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Arizona, Miami and the Yankees are teams that I believe would benefit from Olivares. I’m still on the side that he’s less likely to be traded, but that might shift over the next few days.

As for the rest of the Royals, there aren’t a ton of obvious names. I think Ryan Yarbrough could very easily get traded with any number of teams in need of some depth on their pitching staff. I still keep hearing that if the Royals pay all of the 2024 Jordan Lyles salary, he would be a likely move. Teams need innings. What happens if the Royals are only willing to pay $4.5 million? I don’t know. Maybe there’s a move to be made? I don’t really see a world where Zack Greinke is either coveted or wants to go. And I don’t think Salvador Perez has the market that many believe, but I also don’t think he’s going to approve a deal and the Royals aren’t seeking it out.

There are some young players who could have some value. I know teams are asking about Carlos Hernandez. Maybe they should be listening, but I don’t get the impression they are yet. Maikel Garcia would bring back a lot, but I don’t get the impression that anyone believes he’s on the move, so I don’t think there are conversations being had. Moving guys like Michael Massey, MJ Melendez or Nick Pratto seems counterproductive at this time. I think you could see a couple of prospects like Nick Loftin or Angel Zerpa as part of a deal, but I don’t get the idea that you’re going to see significant movement there.

Outfield Work Needed

Coming into play yesterday, the Royals outfield had a combined slash line of .212/.276/.342. That’s the worst average, worst OBP and second-worst SLG. That’s all good for the worst OPS in the league. Some of that will have changed after yesterday, but it’s not like the outfield put on a show against the Tigers in the series finale. It’s very easy to look at the group they’re running out there most days - MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters - and see their numbers and assume they all need to be replaced.

But, at least with Melendez and Waters, you know there’s offensive potential. I’ve written about Melendez in the past and still believe he could use some time in AAA, even with the work he’s been doing. And Waters has shown some flashes, although I’m not exactly sold that he can maintain any of that with the crazy strikeout rate he has. Still, though, while it’s easy to say neither will ever hit enough, it’s also easy to see the pedigree and wonder how and when a breakout might happen with either or both.

On the Isbel side, he’s a little easier to diagnose. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a regular, but he plays a good enough center field to be on a roster. He has flashed power, he can hit the ball hard and he can really go get it. That allows for some creativity in the middle of the field because he can play the “Jarrod Dyson” role and come in late in games to help supplement the defense in important spots. So the question really becomes what you do in center field for the first six or seven innings. Maybe the answer is Waters. But that’s also part of why I’m more than okay with Melendez getting a few weeks in Omaha to work things out.

I’d love to see John Rave get a shot at the big league level. I’m not convinced he’s a center fielder, but what’s the harm in trying when the team is a billion games under .500 before the trade deadline has even come? I’d love to get a look at him. I’d love to see what Tyler Gentry can do even though he hasn’t exactly had a great season in AAA. If you told me, they were going to run out a Waters-Rave-Gentry outfield most nights, I’d be all in to see what that could bring to the table. Samad Taylor deserves more of a shot, though maybe they see what he can do at second and give Massey a few weeks in AAA too.

And after you’ve cycled through the guys you have close, then you can start to look to free agency and the trade market this winter. I feel like Adam Duvall has reached the “sign with a contender every winter” portion of his career, but maybe you bring him in as a stopgap. Or maybe it’s a pursuit of Jurickson Profar for the 32nd consecutive season. The options really aren’t great. The Cardinals have a bunch of outfielders and they tend to trade some good ones, so perhaps there’s a match there. Or the Orioles get out in front of Anthony Santander on the verge of free agency and move him. Whatever they do, they need to get a look at the possibilities this year so they don’t go into next year with such a glaring hole in the lineup.

Weekend in the Bronx

This happened before this season, but it’s always striking when you get to July 21 and you’re seeing a team for the very first time. That’s the case when the Royals head to New York to take on the Yankees, who seem to be somewhat in freefall. They currently sit in last place in the AL East, though they’re also three games over .500, so maybe don’t play the sad music just yet. But they’ve been as many as 11 games over .500 and were 10 games over just about two and a half weeks ago when they went to 48-38. They’re 2-9 since then. Good news for them is that the Royals cure what ails teams. The bad news is that they may just not be especially good.

Without Aaron Judge, they’re downright bad, going 20-28 when he is out of the lineup and he’s been out of the lineup for awhile. They still have Giancarlo Stanton, who can hit a ball a quadrillion feet, and they get some power from Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe and Anthony Rizzo (though maybe he shouldn’t be included with a .183/.281/.223 line and 0 homers since May 21), but they’re just not a terribly dynamic offense these days. It’s a big reason why I think they could benefit from Olivares. They do seem to have the talent on the roster, but it’s just not producing, which is the perfect setup for a breakout against the Royals.

The pitching has been generally good enough, I think. Gerrit Cole is having a great year. As far as starters go, that’s about it though. Carlos Rodon missed the first three months and hasn’t been great since his return. Domingo German did throw a perfect game, but he hasn’t been consistently good. Luis Severino has been generally terrible. Clarke Schmidt has been solid. They’re missing Nestor Cortes quite a bit. In the bullpen, Clay Holmes has been good and they’ve done a nice job of mixing and matching though they don’t have what I’d call a dominant reliever.

In this series, the pitching matchups will be:

Alex Marsh vs. Schmidt
Brady Singer vs. Cole
Jordan Lyles vs. Severino

I’m not going to pretend to be confident in Marsh or Lyles with the short porch. I think Marsh has a chance to do some really fun things in the big leagues, but he also will give up the long ball and if he’s not keeping the ball in the middle of the field, it could be a problem for him. Lyles just isn’t especially good, though he has only allowed four homers in his last seven starts spanning 41 innings. So maybe I’m not being fair. Singer shoved in Yankee Stadium last year and does seem to rise to the occasion. Plus, he’s more likely to keep the ball on the ground than the other two. Still, I think the Royals offense could be asked to keep up with some home runs and that’s never a safe bet.