Oh, I have a lot today for some reason and for not watching an inning of the Detroit series.
1. I 100% agree a portion of this is bad luck. But obviously only a portion. However, I do believe it will get to the median so I’m hopeful next year we see some unexpected good things. However, I’m glad we aren’t Detroit and convincing ourselves we are still in this race. Detroit isn’t good….they are better than the Royals but I don’t see a large degree of difference.
2. Outfielders. I think one of my biggest fears at this point is that this evaluation year turns into years. For instance, I lean that only Waters can start next year (I’m not sold on him even) of the three. Melendez used in a platoon, and Isbel as a 4th outfielder. I just don’t think we can see all three of them start the first game of the season, or what was this year about you know? I get the impression you don’t think they will be and they will go out and get someone. I still see the Cardinals….and think man, Singer for one of there young outfielders makes alot of sense for the next couple of years. Get a little creative here.
3. Lynch - turns out injury. Are we concerned it’s the same injury as earlier this year? Part of me is like, ok…maybe that’s why his stuff was down. Then the other part of me is like….we’ll its come up multiple times now, how big a problem is that. Pitchers get hurt, we know that.
4. Seems like people are downplaying the deadline a little bit more than they were a month ago. Maybe it’s just because Chapman has already been traded and it feels like it’s just Barlow that has a good shot now. Are we of the opinion….or is it a concern I guess….if they don’t trade Barlow? Here is to hoping they get creative.
5. I see the talent on the Mets and the Padres and it makes me sad. They can’t even compete with that talent and the Royals have 1/10th of that talent right now. Lol. Wrong way to think obviously…but the Rangers have been fun this year!
Of all seasons to be monumentally horrible, this may be the best one because of the Detroit question. They're legitimately in the AL Central race, but to what end? I could see the Twins getting in and doing some damage because I think they have the pitching to win a series (it's the Twins, so they won't, but you know what I mean). If the Tigers somehow snuck in, I don't know how they'd even be competitive in a game, let alone win a series. Of course, it's baseball and weird things happen, but if the Tigers made the playoffs, the difference between the Rangers and whoever is the fifth best team would be a lot smaller than the difference between the fifth best team and the Tigers.
I will say that you're likely to be disappointed. I think they will begin to "fix" this roster this winter, but I think there's a pretty strong chance they can't get it all done in one winter. They're 42 games under .500 and it's not even the deadline. This isn't a one-year fix. So whatever you want to call next year, they're still going to likely be starting players regularly you don't want them to start. In my opinion, if that comes to fruition, I hope they start the guys who at least have upside, so I'm fine if Melendez is in the lineup every day.
They say the Lynch injury is not the same thing and I do think there's at least a good chance it's more of a tired arm some guys go through earlier in the year. It's just that this is his earlier in the year. So we'll see. If he comes back in two weeks like Greinke did, great. I just won't be counting on that happening.
I'm not sure if the deadline is being downplayed as much as, like you say, Chapman is already dealt. I don't think there's much of a chance they don't trade Barlow. I've heard plenty of chatter and when you're seeing articles about it on MLB.com, you have a pretty good idea that it's going to happen. Never say never, but if Barlow is walking out to that right field bullpen when the Mets come to town on August 1, I think I'll be pretty surprised. Maybe the left field one is in play.
The Mets and Padres are just a mess, though the Padres have the seventh-best run differential in baseball. It's not everything, but they're better than their record. It just may not matter.
Well, bummer. Have we backed off the talk about it being the biggest offseason in Royals history a little bit? I feel like as this thing has gone off the tracks, everyone has realized this is won’t be fixed in a couple years. Or is it just the realization that all the guys in the A level in the minors are the hope now. Lol.
What’s a little odd about this year…I genuinely can’t see a breakout candidate on the Royals. Maybe not even breakout….but in the past you get the Nicky Lopez 5 WAR season, or lasts year even with Singer and you dream a little bit. I think maybe it’s Witt…but honestly, that is expected. Nobody else has had a season that seems like above expectations…..even if it is just a one year anomaly. That’s is super weird in baseball over an entire team.
I don't know that I've backed off it, but I think it's probably more realistic to say the next two are the biggest. But if they bungle this one, the next one doesn't matter as much, so it's still pretty huge.
It's been an odd year and that's part of why I'm not as pessimistic as most. It's easy to see a path to being much better with Vinnie back, Witt continuing to progress, Garcia up (he's the breakout, by the way) and a couple of additions to go along with already having Salvy. I don't know. Just bizarre.
Good morning, David. Again a very thorough assessment of the trade possibilities. I'm just hopeful that the next game I can attend, they will win, so I'll enjoy it more. If they lose, well at least I hope it's a game they fought well in and maybe luck in the form of a bad umpire call ball/strike/safe/out... whatever, is something I can blame!
Anyway I have a question with multiple parts. Sometimes it seems to me that if someone is traded mostly in the middle of the season or even at the deadline, that they don't perform well right away. Is there any research, even speculative and opinionated research about this? Can a player be traded and not be totally willing to be traded? How much of an adjustment is estimated a player new to a team should need?
That's a really good question about guys getting traded and not performing .I don't know if there's any research on it, but there is a pretty general idea that guys who sign big contracts often struggle with a new team, largely because of pressure. I'd assume there's something similar to being the "big acquisition" for someone. That's very interesting. I'll see what I can find when I get some time.
As for not wanting to go, I'm sure it happens more than we realize. Only players with actual no-trade clauses or those who have been in the big leagues for 10 years and with the same team for five can veto a trade, so I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen quite a bit that guys don't want to go somewhere. With regard to the adjustment needed, I think it depends on the player and the position. A catcher, for example, has to learn the pitchers. A center fielder probably doesn't have a ton of adjustment. So just sort of varies.
What type of return would you expect for someone like Barlow? With that extra year I would think that would get you into the top 10 in a system territory or am I crazy?
I think it obviously depends on the system, but it's certainly possible. My guess, if it's a full-on prospect package, is you get two or three prospects, but only one is truly of note at this moment. I think you could certainly see a top-10-type prospect. If you're looking at the Dodgers, maybe Nick Nastrini or River Ryan along with someone like Wilman Diaz and Juan Alonso. I'm just picking out some names here, but that sort of return is what I think is possible. It depends, though, on what they're looking for. They targeted Ragans specifically in the Chapman deal, so it's hard to say for sure.
I would hope they take best package possible instead of closest to big leagues. While Ragan’s is intriguing if his velocity holds we don’t need more Brett Phillipses but more Dylan Coleman/Olivares returns
Why trade Yarbrough? You aren't going to get much for him, in all honesty; he isn't high-tier enough for a big return. He has pitched fairly well as he's found his feet, and given us some decent innings as a starter - which frankly, we need. He doesn't cost the team a whole bunch of money, as other FA signings would, and we are going to have 1-2 pitching spots to fill (Greinke's done, and if we are going to trade any starter, then let it be Lyles). He seems like the guy you keep, under the circumstances., while other guys develop. Frankly, I'm all in favor of eating Lyles' contract and trading him to anyone for a bag of baseballs. The Ray's just DFA'd Yonny Chirinos - why not pick him up and let him work on his control when it doesn't matter? It's not like we are going to go all out to sign Blake Snell this off-season, is it?
It's fine if they don't trade him, but why not? Guys like him are available every year. He has a year of team control, so if they don't move him, whatever, but if they can get something for him, they may as well give it a shot.
I will continue to beat the drum that they'll spend, Whether they want to or not, if they're going to have a vote on a new stadium at the start of the season, people better be given something to be excited about. I don't think it's going to be Snell (and I don't think it should be, but that's an issue for another day), but I would imagine they will pick up a veteran starter who is theoretically better than Lyles.
This is a response to your last two posts. I consider myself to be a realistic fan, and I know what we’re working. They’ve asked fans to basically watch extended spring training this entire year while they’re hyping the downtown stadium at the same time.
I don’t think it’s unrealistic to expect that the Royals will be contenders in our own division next year. They will know exactly what they have & what they need to do this. Going out and adding a few stop-gap players to fill those needs, while we’re waiting for some prospects to come up isn’t unrealistic IMO. We can be competitive in our division without having to be WS ready. I think it’s a reasonable ask. If we cheap out again & Sherman uses the evaluation period excuse again.........
The Royals are great at developing 4th outfielders. Unfortunately, they start all of them.
If you don't have 1st, 2nd or 3rd outfielders, that's what you're left to start.
This legit feels like something Ned would say.
Shh. Don't blow my cover.
Blink twice if you talk to Ned regularly.
https://media3.giphy.com/media/gguIdSUEuqgUw/giphy.gif?cid=2154d3d7krcx9i80esbembcggc03dxl9cwcevcixf4078sfs&ep=v1_gifs_related&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
Oh, I have a lot today for some reason and for not watching an inning of the Detroit series.
1. I 100% agree a portion of this is bad luck. But obviously only a portion. However, I do believe it will get to the median so I’m hopeful next year we see some unexpected good things. However, I’m glad we aren’t Detroit and convincing ourselves we are still in this race. Detroit isn’t good….they are better than the Royals but I don’t see a large degree of difference.
2. Outfielders. I think one of my biggest fears at this point is that this evaluation year turns into years. For instance, I lean that only Waters can start next year (I’m not sold on him even) of the three. Melendez used in a platoon, and Isbel as a 4th outfielder. I just don’t think we can see all three of them start the first game of the season, or what was this year about you know? I get the impression you don’t think they will be and they will go out and get someone. I still see the Cardinals….and think man, Singer for one of there young outfielders makes alot of sense for the next couple of years. Get a little creative here.
3. Lynch - turns out injury. Are we concerned it’s the same injury as earlier this year? Part of me is like, ok…maybe that’s why his stuff was down. Then the other part of me is like….we’ll its come up multiple times now, how big a problem is that. Pitchers get hurt, we know that.
4. Seems like people are downplaying the deadline a little bit more than they were a month ago. Maybe it’s just because Chapman has already been traded and it feels like it’s just Barlow that has a good shot now. Are we of the opinion….or is it a concern I guess….if they don’t trade Barlow? Here is to hoping they get creative.
5. I see the talent on the Mets and the Padres and it makes me sad. They can’t even compete with that talent and the Royals have 1/10th of that talent right now. Lol. Wrong way to think obviously…but the Rangers have been fun this year!
Of all seasons to be monumentally horrible, this may be the best one because of the Detroit question. They're legitimately in the AL Central race, but to what end? I could see the Twins getting in and doing some damage because I think they have the pitching to win a series (it's the Twins, so they won't, but you know what I mean). If the Tigers somehow snuck in, I don't know how they'd even be competitive in a game, let alone win a series. Of course, it's baseball and weird things happen, but if the Tigers made the playoffs, the difference between the Rangers and whoever is the fifth best team would be a lot smaller than the difference between the fifth best team and the Tigers.
I will say that you're likely to be disappointed. I think they will begin to "fix" this roster this winter, but I think there's a pretty strong chance they can't get it all done in one winter. They're 42 games under .500 and it's not even the deadline. This isn't a one-year fix. So whatever you want to call next year, they're still going to likely be starting players regularly you don't want them to start. In my opinion, if that comes to fruition, I hope they start the guys who at least have upside, so I'm fine if Melendez is in the lineup every day.
They say the Lynch injury is not the same thing and I do think there's at least a good chance it's more of a tired arm some guys go through earlier in the year. It's just that this is his earlier in the year. So we'll see. If he comes back in two weeks like Greinke did, great. I just won't be counting on that happening.
I'm not sure if the deadline is being downplayed as much as, like you say, Chapman is already dealt. I don't think there's much of a chance they don't trade Barlow. I've heard plenty of chatter and when you're seeing articles about it on MLB.com, you have a pretty good idea that it's going to happen. Never say never, but if Barlow is walking out to that right field bullpen when the Mets come to town on August 1, I think I'll be pretty surprised. Maybe the left field one is in play.
The Mets and Padres are just a mess, though the Padres have the seventh-best run differential in baseball. It's not everything, but they're better than their record. It just may not matter.
Well, bummer. Have we backed off the talk about it being the biggest offseason in Royals history a little bit? I feel like as this thing has gone off the tracks, everyone has realized this is won’t be fixed in a couple years. Or is it just the realization that all the guys in the A level in the minors are the hope now. Lol.
What’s a little odd about this year…I genuinely can’t see a breakout candidate on the Royals. Maybe not even breakout….but in the past you get the Nicky Lopez 5 WAR season, or lasts year even with Singer and you dream a little bit. I think maybe it’s Witt…but honestly, that is expected. Nobody else has had a season that seems like above expectations…..even if it is just a one year anomaly. That’s is super weird in baseball over an entire team.
I don't know that I've backed off it, but I think it's probably more realistic to say the next two are the biggest. But if they bungle this one, the next one doesn't matter as much, so it's still pretty huge.
It's been an odd year and that's part of why I'm not as pessimistic as most. It's easy to see a path to being much better with Vinnie back, Witt continuing to progress, Garcia up (he's the breakout, by the way) and a couple of additions to go along with already having Salvy. I don't know. Just bizarre.
Good morning, David. Again a very thorough assessment of the trade possibilities. I'm just hopeful that the next game I can attend, they will win, so I'll enjoy it more. If they lose, well at least I hope it's a game they fought well in and maybe luck in the form of a bad umpire call ball/strike/safe/out... whatever, is something I can blame!
Anyway I have a question with multiple parts. Sometimes it seems to me that if someone is traded mostly in the middle of the season or even at the deadline, that they don't perform well right away. Is there any research, even speculative and opinionated research about this? Can a player be traded and not be totally willing to be traded? How much of an adjustment is estimated a player new to a team should need?
Trust me, you can always blame umpires!
That's a really good question about guys getting traded and not performing .I don't know if there's any research on it, but there is a pretty general idea that guys who sign big contracts often struggle with a new team, largely because of pressure. I'd assume there's something similar to being the "big acquisition" for someone. That's very interesting. I'll see what I can find when I get some time.
As for not wanting to go, I'm sure it happens more than we realize. Only players with actual no-trade clauses or those who have been in the big leagues for 10 years and with the same team for five can veto a trade, so I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen quite a bit that guys don't want to go somewhere. With regard to the adjustment needed, I think it depends on the player and the position. A catcher, for example, has to learn the pitchers. A center fielder probably doesn't have a ton of adjustment. So just sort of varies.
I'm going to disagree with you on one thing: I hope Detroit DOES think they can go on a run and trades away the farm to that end.
Ha, that's fair. I hope they do too for the Royals sake!
What type of return would you expect for someone like Barlow? With that extra year I would think that would get you into the top 10 in a system territory or am I crazy?
I think it obviously depends on the system, but it's certainly possible. My guess, if it's a full-on prospect package, is you get two or three prospects, but only one is truly of note at this moment. I think you could certainly see a top-10-type prospect. If you're looking at the Dodgers, maybe Nick Nastrini or River Ryan along with someone like Wilman Diaz and Juan Alonso. I'm just picking out some names here, but that sort of return is what I think is possible. It depends, though, on what they're looking for. They targeted Ragans specifically in the Chapman deal, so it's hard to say for sure.
I would hope they take best package possible instead of closest to big leagues. While Ragan’s is intriguing if his velocity holds we don’t need more Brett Phillipses but more Dylan Coleman/Olivares returns
I obviously hope so too. I just want to make sure to caution that what they could get might not be what they do get.
Why trade Yarbrough? You aren't going to get much for him, in all honesty; he isn't high-tier enough for a big return. He has pitched fairly well as he's found his feet, and given us some decent innings as a starter - which frankly, we need. He doesn't cost the team a whole bunch of money, as other FA signings would, and we are going to have 1-2 pitching spots to fill (Greinke's done, and if we are going to trade any starter, then let it be Lyles). He seems like the guy you keep, under the circumstances., while other guys develop. Frankly, I'm all in favor of eating Lyles' contract and trading him to anyone for a bag of baseballs. The Ray's just DFA'd Yonny Chirinos - why not pick him up and let him work on his control when it doesn't matter? It's not like we are going to go all out to sign Blake Snell this off-season, is it?
It's fine if they don't trade him, but why not? Guys like him are available every year. He has a year of team control, so if they don't move him, whatever, but if they can get something for him, they may as well give it a shot.
I will continue to beat the drum that they'll spend, Whether they want to or not, if they're going to have a vote on a new stadium at the start of the season, people better be given something to be excited about. I don't think it's going to be Snell (and I don't think it should be, but that's an issue for another day), but I would imagine they will pick up a veteran starter who is theoretically better than Lyles.
This is a response to your last two posts. I consider myself to be a realistic fan, and I know what we’re working. They’ve asked fans to basically watch extended spring training this entire year while they’re hyping the downtown stadium at the same time.
I don’t think it’s unrealistic to expect that the Royals will be contenders in our own division next year. They will know exactly what they have & what they need to do this. Going out and adding a few stop-gap players to fill those needs, while we’re waiting for some prospects to come up isn’t unrealistic IMO. We can be competitive in our division without having to be WS ready. I think it’s a reasonable ask. If we cheap out again & Sherman uses the evaluation period excuse again.........