I do. I think they know they have to. They've been shockingly public in talking about it too, which makes me believe they'll do basically whatever he wants. I'll actually have something on *that* later this week.
I think they will as well. Spending whatever on Witt Jr will cost millions…but Sherman is smart enough to know if he gets this new deal through he will make that back in x number of years and sell the team for more when the time comes. It’s just business. If they don’t sign Bobby…..I think it gets interesting because I think that’s when they make a Nola type splash. But I genuinely expect something to happen. I’m sure I’ll be disappointed. Lol.
I’ll even take it a step farther. I know Bobby’s representation knows the Royals will be coming at them this offseason and I’m 100% convinced in August they told him getting to the 30/50 club would be very beneficial to them. And he was a man on a mission at the end here. Rightly so.
I actually don't know that 30/50 means much of anything in terms of dollars. It's not like one more steal would get him more money. But it's absolutely true that all sides knew there was a big negotiation coming.
Witt played great this year - to the point that he's basically got a blank check sitting in front of him, one that can buy out his arb years plus another two or three. So, Sherman need to start there and add another offensive player or two from outside to the mix. Love the idea of Montas. Maybe checkbook Gurriel as well?
I'll get to more specific targets over the next few weeks, but Gurriel is interesting (I assume you're talking about Lourdes). He kind of has this reputation of a bad defender, but he was solid enough his last couple of years in Toronto and then was off the charts, at least by DRS, this year in Arizona. So yeah, intriguing.
I don’t know that I can take too much into it. But I was a little disappointed to hear they are not interested in adding bats in the infield. Meaning, to me that tells me they aren’t really shopping Garcia. Maybe there isn’t anything with other teams interested or the timing isn’t right. But that’s one way to get some pitching in….or whatever you think can help and slide Loftin to third to start the year.
Keep in mind that in November last year, they were committed to getting Ryan O'Hearn at bats. Right decision or wrong decision on him (I'll still contend it was right for them at the time), things change a whole lot. And also, the infield is absolutely set. Right now. Will it be later? Maybe! Maybe not!
I could have written a bit more about their comments yesterday, but you know how I feel about those type of press conferences. It's great to say the right thing, but ultimately just do the right thing. I appreciated them putting an actual win total out there, and it was more aggressive than I expected. I also appreciated them being vocal about Witt and about getting more pitching in. It sets the standard to hold them accountable if it doesn't happen.
If they do manage to extend Witt, the contract should be front loaded heavily both to entice him and to manage the budget when they get closer to contention.
It certainly could and maybe should be. I'd bet the cost of the deal that it won't be. And, to be honest, if the new stadium/entertainment district around it does what the ownership group claims it will, whatever the cost is in 2032 or whatever shouldn't be prohibitive.
I believe Garcia can become more of a power hitter by hitting the weights over the winter. Isbel can handle CF defensively and that is critical in the huge K outfield. Also, with regular at bats Isbel began to hit the last two months of the season. Put V at DH and find a good hitter to play either LF or RF. The key is pitching and maybe Hernandez and Z need to be stretched out and turned into starters? I do not think Hernandez has the mindset to be a closer as proven over the last half of the season. Move Lyles to a long reliever role because he does not do it as a starting pitcher but he can give you innings! Try to find at least two starting pitchers. Lynch and Bubic are running out of chances!!!
Garcia can honestly probably hit for more power without even adding muscle if he can work on lifting the ball a bit more. I've said a lot that Hernandez was in the bullpen because the Royals believed that was best for him mentally. I don't know if it is or isn't, but that's their thought. They've seen Zerpa as a starter and still do, but he simply wasn't stretched out for this year because of injury, so he worked in the hybrid role you saw. I think the plan is for him to be ready to start in spring training and see where it goes.
Just want to say it's Kris, not Chris, and I guess I don't understand why that is such an area of emphasis for you given the clear upgrade in his pitch mix with a slider before the injury.
I just don't think Kris has the pitch mix and command to be a succesful starter in the bigs at this point. I think last spring he was overthrowing and hurt his arm instead of fine-tuning his "crafty lefty repertoire" (as Rex would say)...i think he needs to unlock his inner Charlie Leibrandt to be successful....not try to become a Danny Jackson....I think the same thing happened to Brentz....over throwing....
1). It seems to me that Q is more open to the concept of platooning than Royals managers have been in the past. Do you think we will see more of that in the future? (2B, LF, RF)
2). I haven’t put in the stat work on this but both Grienke and Lyles were pretty OK two times through the lineup. My guess would be that if Q would have pulled them before going into that dreaded sixth inning, their stats and the team’s performance would have benefited greatly. Of course, this is assuming that the bullpen would actually do its job.
I do think there'll be more of an emphasis on platooning. There already was this season and I imagine with results being the focus over development, that'll grow even more. Ideally, you don't need to platoon, but that's not reality and I think we'll see a fair amount more of that with probably only three or four truly every day players.
You're right that Greinke was both much better the first two times through. Greinke allowed a .667 OPS the first time, a .728 the second time and 1.267 the third time. He also only faced a hitter more than twice in 71 of 543 plate appearances, so there was a pretty clear intention to get him out of there.
Lyles, on the other hand, had a bit of a weird times through the order split. He allowed a .748 OPS the first time, which jumped to .911 the second time and then back to .764 the third time (and .526 the fourth time on a few rare occasions). So an early pull likely would have actually made his numbers look worse.
Wow. That’s interesting with Lyle. Guess I was thinking about something I read about runs scored against in the sixth inning and just assumed Lyles was part of the problem.
If they’re going outside to add a couple of bats, I’d rather see them restructure Salvy’s salary and keep him. I like Fermin and Porter, but I don’t think we’ve seen enough of either to know they are every day starters. If they were willing to pay Greinke these past two seasons, I think Salvy has more value & would be open to finishing his career here with a team-favorable contract.
Maybe he would, but they also wouldn’t even be open to trading him if he didn’t give the okay. I don’t get the impression that they asked him either, but rather the other way around. Not that he asked for a trade but that he told them he’d be okay with it. If they can move Salvy and get back pitching, I think they do it and I think it’s smart for the right deal.
I guess It’s surprising that he’d be willing to be traded after he stuck it out through the rough last few years just as they’re turning it around. But he probably sees that we’re not close enough yet and his time is running out (just speculation obvi)
There are some other variables involved. He has relationships around the league with people who are no longer in the organization. Plus, the biggest rumor was Miami, which is home for him. It's not that he doesn't want to stay as much as he'd be okay going, I think.
I have thought for a while that if they trade Salvador Perez, they HAVE to keep Melendez and move him back behind the plate to rebuild his trade value. He is an ehh outfielder and a decent bat at catcher. I would love if you did an article on Melendez trade value as a catcher vs an OF and what that would look like.
You don't think his bat has more value to another team at catcher? I believe it does. I have seen too many bat first catchers to believe he doesn't have more value at the catcher position than in OF. A year behind the dish to show his 2023 second half bat is for real, I believe, inflates his potential trade value. JMO.
I don't think they believe the pitching staff can handle a year of him behind the dish. Another team might feel differently, but the Royals brought in a new coaching staff and they decided after 68.2 innings that he couldn't cut it back there. He was statistically one of the worst defensive catchers we've ever seen and the new staff thought that matched up within seven starts. Yes, he'd have more value as a bat first catcher, but a catcher who is that terrible negates any and all value.
I’ve heard you, Soren and John Sherman all say in the last several weeks (and I agree) that we have to get better at trading players at the time of their highest value. That being said - and not being able to have traded Cole Ragans the day after he won pitcher of the month - what is his trade value now and should we trade him this off season?
Ragans probably doesn’t have the value it seems he would based on his results. He’s been a dominant starter for two months and teams probably have justifiable sustainability concerns. At the same time, I believe you trade above average players at their peak and do what they can to sign their good to great players long-term. At some point, you can’t just trade everyone. There’s a balance.
You really expect they'll sign With to an extension? A man can dream, but I'd be shocked.
I do. I think they know they have to. They've been shockingly public in talking about it too, which makes me believe they'll do basically whatever he wants. I'll actually have something on *that* later this week.
I think they will as well. Spending whatever on Witt Jr will cost millions…but Sherman is smart enough to know if he gets this new deal through he will make that back in x number of years and sell the team for more when the time comes. It’s just business. If they don’t sign Bobby…..I think it gets interesting because I think that’s when they make a Nola type splash. But I genuinely expect something to happen. I’m sure I’ll be disappointed. Lol.
I’ll even take it a step farther. I know Bobby’s representation knows the Royals will be coming at them this offseason and I’m 100% convinced in August they told him getting to the 30/50 club would be very beneficial to them. And he was a man on a mission at the end here. Rightly so.
I actually don't know that 30/50 means much of anything in terms of dollars. It's not like one more steal would get him more money. But it's absolutely true that all sides knew there was a big negotiation coming.
I’m ready to put the “Royals never retain their players” myth to bed, right next to the “Royals are always great in September” myth.
You and me both, my man.
Witt played great this year - to the point that he's basically got a blank check sitting in front of him, one that can buy out his arb years plus another two or three. So, Sherman need to start there and add another offensive player or two from outside to the mix. Love the idea of Montas. Maybe checkbook Gurriel as well?
I'll get to more specific targets over the next few weeks, but Gurriel is interesting (I assume you're talking about Lourdes). He kind of has this reputation of a bad defender, but he was solid enough his last couple of years in Toronto and then was off the charts, at least by DRS, this year in Arizona. So yeah, intriguing.
Blank cheque pretty well describes it...write in 500 million!
I don’t know that I can take too much into it. But I was a little disappointed to hear they are not interested in adding bats in the infield. Meaning, to me that tells me they aren’t really shopping Garcia. Maybe there isn’t anything with other teams interested or the timing isn’t right. But that’s one way to get some pitching in….or whatever you think can help and slide Loftin to third to start the year.
Keep in mind that in November last year, they were committed to getting Ryan O'Hearn at bats. Right decision or wrong decision on him (I'll still contend it was right for them at the time), things change a whole lot. And also, the infield is absolutely set. Right now. Will it be later? Maybe! Maybe not!
I could have written a bit more about their comments yesterday, but you know how I feel about those type of press conferences. It's great to say the right thing, but ultimately just do the right thing. I appreciated them putting an actual win total out there, and it was more aggressive than I expected. I also appreciated them being vocal about Witt and about getting more pitching in. It sets the standard to hold them accountable if it doesn't happen.
If they do manage to extend Witt, the contract should be front loaded heavily both to entice him and to manage the budget when they get closer to contention.
It certainly could and maybe should be. I'd bet the cost of the deal that it won't be. And, to be honest, if the new stadium/entertainment district around it does what the ownership group claims it will, whatever the cost is in 2032 or whatever shouldn't be prohibitive.
I believe Garcia can become more of a power hitter by hitting the weights over the winter. Isbel can handle CF defensively and that is critical in the huge K outfield. Also, with regular at bats Isbel began to hit the last two months of the season. Put V at DH and find a good hitter to play either LF or RF. The key is pitching and maybe Hernandez and Z need to be stretched out and turned into starters? I do not think Hernandez has the mindset to be a closer as proven over the last half of the season. Move Lyles to a long reliever role because he does not do it as a starting pitcher but he can give you innings! Try to find at least two starting pitchers. Lynch and Bubic are running out of chances!!!
Garcia can honestly probably hit for more power without even adding muscle if he can work on lifting the ball a bit more. I've said a lot that Hernandez was in the bullpen because the Royals believed that was best for him mentally. I don't know if it is or isn't, but that's their thought. They've seen Zerpa as a starter and still do, but he simply wasn't stretched out for this year because of injury, so he worked in the hybrid role you saw. I think the plan is for him to be ready to start in spring training and see where it goes.
All I want for Christmas is a Chris Bubic DFA.... and continued improvement in player development from below! Hope Salvy stays!
Just want to say it's Kris, not Chris, and I guess I don't understand why that is such an area of emphasis for you given the clear upgrade in his pitch mix with a slider before the injury.
I just don't think Kris has the pitch mix and command to be a succesful starter in the bigs at this point. I think last spring he was overthrowing and hurt his arm instead of fine-tuning his "crafty lefty repertoire" (as Rex would say)...i think he needs to unlock his inner Charlie Leibrandt to be successful....not try to become a Danny Jackson....I think the same thing happened to Brentz....over throwing....
It's certainly possible that's what happened. I also have no evidence to say it is. Throwing a baseball is stressful as hell on the elbow.
1). It seems to me that Q is more open to the concept of platooning than Royals managers have been in the past. Do you think we will see more of that in the future? (2B, LF, RF)
2). I haven’t put in the stat work on this but both Grienke and Lyles were pretty OK two times through the lineup. My guess would be that if Q would have pulled them before going into that dreaded sixth inning, their stats and the team’s performance would have benefited greatly. Of course, this is assuming that the bullpen would actually do its job.
I do think there'll be more of an emphasis on platooning. There already was this season and I imagine with results being the focus over development, that'll grow even more. Ideally, you don't need to platoon, but that's not reality and I think we'll see a fair amount more of that with probably only three or four truly every day players.
You're right that Greinke was both much better the first two times through. Greinke allowed a .667 OPS the first time, a .728 the second time and 1.267 the third time. He also only faced a hitter more than twice in 71 of 543 plate appearances, so there was a pretty clear intention to get him out of there.
Lyles, on the other hand, had a bit of a weird times through the order split. He allowed a .748 OPS the first time, which jumped to .911 the second time and then back to .764 the third time (and .526 the fourth time on a few rare occasions). So an early pull likely would have actually made his numbers look worse.
Wow. That’s interesting with Lyle. Guess I was thinking about something I read about runs scored against in the sixth inning and just assumed Lyles was part of the problem.
He was a disaster in the sixth specifically, but sometimes that's part of the second time through.
If they’re going outside to add a couple of bats, I’d rather see them restructure Salvy’s salary and keep him. I like Fermin and Porter, but I don’t think we’ve seen enough of either to know they are every day starters. If they were willing to pay Greinke these past two seasons, I think Salvy has more value & would be open to finishing his career here with a team-favorable contract.
Maybe he would, but they also wouldn’t even be open to trading him if he didn’t give the okay. I don’t get the impression that they asked him either, but rather the other way around. Not that he asked for a trade but that he told them he’d be okay with it. If they can move Salvy and get back pitching, I think they do it and I think it’s smart for the right deal.
I guess It’s surprising that he’d be willing to be traded after he stuck it out through the rough last few years just as they’re turning it around. But he probably sees that we’re not close enough yet and his time is running out (just speculation obvi)
There are some other variables involved. He has relationships around the league with people who are no longer in the organization. Plus, the biggest rumor was Miami, which is home for him. It's not that he doesn't want to stay as much as he'd be okay going, I think.
I have thought for a while that if they trade Salvador Perez, they HAVE to keep Melendez and move him back behind the plate to rebuild his trade value. He is an ehh outfielder and a decent bat at catcher. I would love if you did an article on Melendez trade value as a catcher vs an OF and what that would look like.
I'll have something next week about moving Salvador Perez, but I don't think Melendez will ever catch again, at least not as a member of the Royals.
You don't think his bat has more value to another team at catcher? I believe it does. I have seen too many bat first catchers to believe he doesn't have more value at the catcher position than in OF. A year behind the dish to show his 2023 second half bat is for real, I believe, inflates his potential trade value. JMO.
I don't think they believe the pitching staff can handle a year of him behind the dish. Another team might feel differently, but the Royals brought in a new coaching staff and they decided after 68.2 innings that he couldn't cut it back there. He was statistically one of the worst defensive catchers we've ever seen and the new staff thought that matched up within seven starts. Yes, he'd have more value as a bat first catcher, but a catcher who is that terrible negates any and all value.
I’ve heard you, Soren and John Sherman all say in the last several weeks (and I agree) that we have to get better at trading players at the time of their highest value. That being said - and not being able to have traded Cole Ragans the day after he won pitcher of the month - what is his trade value now and should we trade him this off season?
Ragans probably doesn’t have the value it seems he would based on his results. He’s been a dominant starter for two months and teams probably have justifiable sustainability concerns. At the same time, I believe you trade above average players at their peak and do what they can to sign their good to great players long-term. At some point, you can’t just trade everyone. There’s a balance.