It really is the little things that make all the difference between the perception of good and bad baseball teams. The royals could very fall right back into the LOB trend thats plagued them throughout the year in the next series but its nice to see them capitalizing off mistakes they were making prior to the break. Those extra pitches and base hits all add up in baseball and the the royals were on the opposite end if the spectrum from where they are now. Credit to young men that are getting it done. They’re winning more than the veterans did so maybe we should lay off the diminutives... they’ve earned it in my opinion.
Checked out the Lesky notes on RR this morning. One question. Do you think this offseason is not the right time to move? I guess I’m thinking if you don’t do something this offseason to very much improve the pitching you are wasting another year of Bobby, Melendez, Pratto. I guess I want this window open for AS LONG as humanly possible. Which means starting next year. Right now it looks like a window….but that could certainly all change in 5 years. But point is….they have the payroll flexibility now, you are eating into Bobby Witt Jr’s time here. Let’s not Trout this thing and try and get a bigger arm to help the pitching. Because if they do nothing……one injury to Singer or maybe Lynch and you are riding a bunch of 4-5’s int he rotation which won’t get it done if serious about being a 86-88 win team.
Add Pratto and Massey to the list of reasons not to trust defensive metrics in small samples. Both have looked great, there's no way they can be worth -2.6 and -1.5 fielding runs respectively already. To that end I suppose you also shouldn't trust Eaton's 2.9, though he has also looked quite good.
David - I know this won't change your mind about anything but FWIW: opponents seeing Bubic for the third time in a game are hitting .370 with a >.940 OPS. He turns hitters not just into all-stars but into MVP candidates. And yes I understand that the third time through the order starts with (presumably) the opponent's best 5 or 6 hitters, so those numbers are likely inflated a bit. I see that as even more reason to take him out before their best hitters get a chance to add to those numbers.
Also FWIW: Passan and Soren agree with me on the 18-batter thing. Passan thinks his starts should pretty much be automatically regarded as "piggyback" starts with a "bulk guy" warmed up and ready to go as soon as he has faced those 18 batters.
Is there a little wiggle room there (after those first 18 batters) if he's pitching extraordinarily well with a nice lead and a low pitch count? Of course there is. But not much. Not to me, anyway. We've both seen more than enough baseball to know that things can go VERY wrong for a pitcher in an incredible hurry.
As I said I don't expect to change your mind here. I just wanted to let you know that there is some actual logic and some strong statistical evidence behind my POV.
David - Your appearance with Soren today (which I thoroughly enjoyed as usual) led me, in a roundabout way, to a question....
I wonder if there's any practical, real-world difference between the way a starting pitcher would pace himself in the hopes of being able to go maybe eight innings, versus the way he would pace himself knowing he'd be facing 18 batters and that's it?
My amateur, off-the-cuff guess is that it would make no difference first time through the order. Second time through, he'd probably be more likely to "let 'er rip" to one extent or another.
I'd imagine there is some obscure velocity data out there somewhere that might shed some light on this. And I'm certain that I'm absolutely the wrong guy to go digging for it!
It really is the little things that make all the difference between the perception of good and bad baseball teams. The royals could very fall right back into the LOB trend thats plagued them throughout the year in the next series but its nice to see them capitalizing off mistakes they were making prior to the break. Those extra pitches and base hits all add up in baseball and the the royals were on the opposite end if the spectrum from where they are now. Credit to young men that are getting it done. They’re winning more than the veterans did so maybe we should lay off the diminutives... they’ve earned it in my opinion.
Checked out the Lesky notes on RR this morning. One question. Do you think this offseason is not the right time to move? I guess I’m thinking if you don’t do something this offseason to very much improve the pitching you are wasting another year of Bobby, Melendez, Pratto. I guess I want this window open for AS LONG as humanly possible. Which means starting next year. Right now it looks like a window….but that could certainly all change in 5 years. But point is….they have the payroll flexibility now, you are eating into Bobby Witt Jr’s time here. Let’s not Trout this thing and try and get a bigger arm to help the pitching. Because if they do nothing……one injury to Singer or maybe Lynch and you are riding a bunch of 4-5’s int he rotation which won’t get it done if serious about being a 86-88 win team.
Add Pratto and Massey to the list of reasons not to trust defensive metrics in small samples. Both have looked great, there's no way they can be worth -2.6 and -1.5 fielding runs respectively already. To that end I suppose you also shouldn't trust Eaton's 2.9, though he has also looked quite good.
David - I know this won't change your mind about anything but FWIW: opponents seeing Bubic for the third time in a game are hitting .370 with a >.940 OPS. He turns hitters not just into all-stars but into MVP candidates. And yes I understand that the third time through the order starts with (presumably) the opponent's best 5 or 6 hitters, so those numbers are likely inflated a bit. I see that as even more reason to take him out before their best hitters get a chance to add to those numbers.
Also FWIW: Passan and Soren agree with me on the 18-batter thing. Passan thinks his starts should pretty much be automatically regarded as "piggyback" starts with a "bulk guy" warmed up and ready to go as soon as he has faced those 18 batters.
Is there a little wiggle room there (after those first 18 batters) if he's pitching extraordinarily well with a nice lead and a low pitch count? Of course there is. But not much. Not to me, anyway. We've both seen more than enough baseball to know that things can go VERY wrong for a pitcher in an incredible hurry.
As I said I don't expect to change your mind here. I just wanted to let you know that there is some actual logic and some strong statistical evidence behind my POV.
David - Your appearance with Soren today (which I thoroughly enjoyed as usual) led me, in a roundabout way, to a question....
I wonder if there's any practical, real-world difference between the way a starting pitcher would pace himself in the hopes of being able to go maybe eight innings, versus the way he would pace himself knowing he'd be facing 18 batters and that's it?
My amateur, off-the-cuff guess is that it would make no difference first time through the order. Second time through, he'd probably be more likely to "let 'er rip" to one extent or another.
I'd imagine there is some obscure velocity data out there somewhere that might shed some light on this. And I'm certain that I'm absolutely the wrong guy to go digging for it!
If anyone ever tells you that you're "as dependable as Fernando Tatis Junior," please feel free to punch them right in the nose.