Evaluating the Royals Pitching Evaluation Year

The Royals offense might have some answers. The pitching staff? Well...

Last week, I looked at the evaluation happening with the position players for the Royals. I originally was going to put the whole team in one article, but it both got too long and the pitching part was really bringing down the vibes from the position players. So I stopped writing it and decided to wait. But, unfortunately for the Royals, pitching is a pretty large part of the game. Every single day there will be someone on the mound when the opponent bats, which means they need to figure that part out. And this year has been, well, a bit of a bummer.

I’m not sure it’s been more of a bummer than this past series against the Mariners. The Royals lost three of four games, but scored 24 runs. It was just the eighth series of the year where the Mariners have allowed six runs per game and the first four-game set they allowed six runs per game. They have a great pitching staff. But even with the offense putting up runs, the pitching gave up seven runs per game. If it wasn’t a bad start, it was the bullpen completely imploding. If bullpen was competent (don’t laugh, they were fine on Tuesday night!), the starter imploded. It was just a brutal series.

But hey, that’s what this year is for, I guess. As I’ve said, evaluation isn’t just about finding what works. It’s about what finding what doesn’t work too. Being able to evaluate talent honestly is one of the most important things an organization can do because it allows for a path forward. To sit around and have to rely on hope that this player or that player can improve because you simply don’t know what to think of them is how you get to a spot where you don’t make many moves and have losing season year after year.

I believe the organization is doing much better with that. I know from conversations before the season that the Royals saw 2023 as a huge year for some of their top pitching prospects and younger arms that were no longer prospect eligible but potential pieces in the future. So let’s see how that huge year has gone for them.

As I did last week, I’ll list the guys who I think can contribute to the 2024 team and then go into an explanation.

Starting Pitching

SP1 - Brady Singer
SP2 -
SP3 -
SP4 -
SP5 -

Yep. They have one starter. I suppose I could and maybe should have included Jordan Lyles just because of his contract, but I didn’t because he doesn’t deserve to be there. Singer isn’t having a great overall season, but we’ve talked a lot about how much better he’s been since early May and I’ll repeat something I’ve said before. I’m intrigued to see what he can do with a normal spring.

As for the rest, can you argue that Daniel Lynch IV is a foregone conclusion at this point? He missed two months, made nine starts and then found his way back to the IL. And I’m not sure he’ll be back quickly enough to be able to do anything more but give him another shot next year. Kris Bubic should be back around the break, but that doesn’t help much for the first 80-100 games.

There are some legitimate options at least. If Cole Ragans does what he’s done for another three or four starts, I’ll be totally in. He doesn’t even have to do exactly what he’s done, but if he goes 22-25 innings with a 4.00 ERA in his next four starts, I’m in. I just can’t sit here talking about evaluations and make a final judgment after four starts. Is eight starts any less irresponsible? Maybe not, but oh well. He’s been so good in three of his four starts and somewhat encouraging without any semblance of command in the fourth that I’m feeling good about him. I’m curious how he fares today in a day game at Wrigley against a Cubs offense that scored 150 runs in their first 20 games after the break but has 44 runs in their last 11 since.

Alec Marsh hasn’t had the results yet and he really labors out there, but the peripherals and stuff do tell the tale of a big league starter. He gutted through five innings of bulk work on Wednesday and gave up just a run on four hits over five innings. He’s so introspective and understands pitching so well that I’d bet on him knowing exactly what to work on this winter.We’ll see. Anthony Veneziano has mostly found his footing in AAA. We’ll see. I still think Jonathan Bowlan can be a big leaguer, but I’m a lot less confident today than I was before he went down for Tommy John. We’ll see. Angel Zerpa could be a nice piece in a big league rotation, but he hasn’t stayed healthy or shown enough in the big leagues, though he had a solid start yesterday. We’ll see.

There is one young starter in AA I haven’t mentioned who I think could compete for a spot with the big league club next year and that’s Chandler Champlain. He came over in the Andrew Benintendi deal as sort of the third and forgotten piece, but he’s been excellent his year. If you’re looking for a guy who can be an ace in the future, I’m not sure that’s him, but he does appear to be a competent rotation arm on the horizon. He’s in the zone. He uses his fastball well. He can pitch. My only question is if he’s actually ready to go, but I think he’s a real option. There are a couple semi-interesting names who I don’t think are quite there in the first few months like Tyson Guerrero and Mason Barnett too to keep an eye on.

And until we see enough out of any of them, Singer is the only guy you go into the offseason being prepared to pitch every fifth day, at least for the first two months of the season. Lyles is likely there unless they either DFA him or include a lot of money to trade him this winter. I count seven young options, who could slot in, including Lynch, so there are certainly possibilities there, but not that many. If I had to guess, I’d say this is where the Royals spend a good chunk of the money I think they’re likely to spend this winter.

The question is do they sign a Kyle Gibson type or do they go all-in and go after someone like Lucas Giolito or hope to buy a little low on Aaron Nola? I would tend to bet on the former or someone like Jordan Montgomery, but I’m also honestly not sure what their mindset is yet. I’ve actually seen a little speculation about Blake Snell, given Matt Quatraro’s presence, but I both don’t think that’s a good idea and don’t think that’ll happen anyway. Again, this is more of an offseason conversation, but those are some of the names.

Bullpen

CL -
SU -
SU -
MR -
MR -
MR -
MR -
LR -

Nope, not a single name. I think that’s likely unfair. Carlos Hernandez has had his struggles recently, but as I’ve written, the stuff is more than fine. He’s in a bit of a command rut, but he’s likely solid. And I also think that Austin Cox is solidifying himself as at least someone they’re going to count on to start the year. He’s a bulldog and he should be a middle reliever, but I appreciate the way he competes on the mound. I just wish he’d throw more strikes.

That’s not to say they can’t build a good bullpen still, but it will require hitting on a lot of arms. Dylan Coleman has shown flashes of looking good again, but then has generally backed it up with more struggles. Will Klein can light up the radar gun and he could be dominant quickly, but he’s struggled in AAA. John McMillon is up now and showed the stuff in his debut yesterday, but also got a rude awakening to the big leagues. Steven Cruz is intriguing. I actually still think James MacArthur is at least interesting even though he hasn’t shown a ton. I appreciate the flyer they’ve taken on Tucker Davidson. He’s not especially good, but I’d like to see if this development team can’t help him out with his slider a little because I feel like it’s a pitch that isn’t that far from being very good.

I’m still vaguely intrigued by Jonathan Heasley even though he’s been mostly bad. I’m an idiot, I guess. I think Heasley is a bulldog, like Cox, and I think that if you let him acclimate to the short relief role, there might be something there. I’m also fine if they non-tender him after the season, so I’m not married to the idea, but I do think the pitch mix and the ability to run it up 96+ is big. Of course, he hasn’t been doing that, which makes him less interesting. If he’s 98 like he was in that outing back in early July, then he’s there. If he’s not, well, I’m less convinced. But that’s what this year is for, right? He’s working in AAA now, and might be working his way to that non-tender, but he’s still an option.

Given the struggles of this bullpen and the likelihood that next year is another stepping-stone season rather than one where wins and losses are the primary focus, the question becomes who they sign with the idea of flipping. There’s no sense in a multi-year deal for someone like Jordan Hicks or Joe Jimenez, but there are others. Michael Fulmer is, once again, interesting.

I could be off here, but I wonder a bit of Reynaldo Lopez doesn’t get the attention he probably should. Give him a year and $8 million and get something for him at the deadline if he lingers. Maybe Ryne Stanek wants to come home and pitch for an old coach. There’s a big lefty out there named Aroldis Chapman who will be a free agent. I don’t think it’ll happen, but they did it once. He’s pitched so well in both places this year that I doubt he settles for what he got from the Royals this year. I certainly wouldn’t spend any big money on the bullpen just yet, but there are possibilities.

And so here we are. I went through an entire 26-man roster of players from the current roster who we feel like we know can be a part of next year’s team (and beyond). And the total I’ve come up with is eight or nine players and exactly one pitcher. It’s not what you want, especially on the pitching side. But there’s still roughly a quarter of the season left. And, at the risk of being too optimistic about a group of 13 that I found one player to build around (and he might get traded), this is an area that I think can get fixed fairly easily. That’s especially true of bullpens. If they can find some competent innings in the rotation, a bullpen can change drastically from year-to-year, so I wouldn’t say all hope is lost.

39 games is a lot of baseball to add a few players to the list. Maybe Ragans can fully solidify his status in next year’s rotation. He’s absolutely going to be in it. He just isn’t a commodity I can completely count on. Maybe Marsh shows something we haven’t seen enough of and you feel good about him. Maybe Veneziano comes up and makes seven strong starts. Suddenly, it starts to feel a little better if Hernandez finds his command and Cox looks like a legitimate bullpen arm and Coleman finds his control. There are just way too many “ifs” to be truly optimistic about this pitching staff, but a lot can change over the course of a few weeks to help this pitching staff beef up.