Exactly spot on, unfortunately. I do think Hernandez should be penciled into the bullpen, although not as the closer (at least not yet). Lots of work to do on the free agent and trade market.
David, I feel like I’m always bringing your positive vibes down to reality. This time around, I’m going to bring them up a little bit. Look, on offense, the royals are……Cleveland Guardians. I can at least work with that. Give me a super star in the middle (Witt, Ramirez)…fine Ramirez has more track record…I understand but just go with me people. Naylor/Vinny…yes, I understand Naylor has more of a track record at this point, and then…..JAG’s. And JAGS probably isn’t fair, but my point is on offense the Royals can survive and be around .500 like the Guardians. Pitching is no where close….but point is, we have 50% figured out for the next few years.
We’ve kind of touched on this in past comments. But bullpen, I’m not worried about. We have enough guys with stuff or failed starters that they will find another Hernandez next year. I’m hopeful it’s the dude that just came up that throws gas. There will be another Hernandez the year after that. You can build a pen quickly. Go get Lopez, I’m all for the help. I do however have to say….I don’t see it with Heasley man. I hope he figures it out….but I just don’t see what you see with him. Lol.
Starters - Here is where I don’t know how we become the Guardians. It is obviously going to be dependent on the A folks developing. The starting pitching is the only thing that really has me putting pause on this thing. They will be better next year I’m sure of that. But not competitive better until they figure that part out. Not only do they only have Singer….(I’d throw Ragans in..but I get it)….as you see with pitching injuries everywhere…you need about 8 of them. Lol. So long ways to go and Singer is the one dude that I think they would trade that can bring a lot back. Maybe you get 3 pitchers in a deal for him and help jump start this thing. Sign Montgomery, get some competence in here and it would be a start. 25 can be a competitive year.
Just realized the Royals are 27th in runs and the Guardians are 28th. It’s not great, I’m not saying the offense is great. I’m saying with a little pitching they can be a whole lot closer to .500!!!
Crap David, I’m doing the math here…..even if they find two more answers next year. Let’s say they have 4…..with injuries and we are saying we need 8 competent to slightly below average…they would still need to find 4. Maybe sign one, so we have 5. Whew it will be close. They can be competitive by 25 right?!
I really do believe they can be competitive in 2025. They need to add some pieces, but while I wouldn't say it's probable because it's hard to say a 39-84 team is probable to contend the season after next. But I'd say it's very possible.
As dim as it looks to see 13 spots and one "lock," I'm surprisingly not as down on the future as I could be. I'm down on the start of 2024 for sure, but the bullpen is a pretty easy thing to fix even though the Royals have sure made it look hard.
On the Heasley front, I see it if he's 96+. I don't see it if he's not. But I've seen him at 96+ and I wonder if they don't move on from him if he can train to maintain that. Also, I'm sure you've seen some thoughts from my friend Alex Duvall, and I tend to agree, he's tipping his pitches and that's a pretty easy fix too, especially with an offseason of work on it. But, like I said, I won't think twice if they non-tender him.
The starters are where I find it tougher, but you also need fewer. You say eight. That's fine. I think you need seven to 10, so that's perfect. You need like 16 relievers. It probably evens out because of how many guys can't throw six innings but can throw one or two, but they've got Singer (for now). Let's say Champlain is something. Ragans, I'm in on, but can't put him on *this* list just yet. That's three. Marsh? Maybe. Zerpa? I lean no, but maybe. Veneziano, I also lean no, but maybe. There are free agents. There are trades, especially if they move forward with trading Salvy. So there's a path. It's a lot of work, but there's a path.
I mean, this exercise you did makes it painstakingly clear you need talent coming up all the time. This wave thing….hopefully this is the last time it happens. Because, if they can’t figure out some pitching its could be a fun couple of years on offense but has me a little worried it turns into 2000-2002 teams.
And it may just be wishful thinking on my part. But they are in an area where they almost have to move Salvy for some pitching. If you can’t you can’t, and it doesn’t have to be pitching but gonna have to get creative to get some more pitching in. We’ll see.
I would be hesitant to say they have to move him for pitching. Pitching comes in almost every deal, so I'm sure a trade will involve pitchers, but I want to find the best deal possible (though with a limited number of teams involved due to the NTC). If it's three shortstops, great, figure out what to do with them. If it's three pitchers, great, you've got three pitchers. But they have a lot they need to do.
This is just for my personal enjoyment. But Civale, goes to the Rays and through three starts has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of his career. Small sample size alert. But I know he is having TJ before the all-star break next year. I just know it.
It’s almost to the point of as a player, you know you will get better and put up better results. But you have to know you will get injured as well. Does that stop some? It’s getting pretty obvious over there…but they win, so maybe nobody cares they put these guys through the meat grinder. Interesting situation brewing.
Civale is walking fewer batters, but he's also not striking out anymore. I'd be more concerned if they were altering his pitch mix more than they have. But it's a definite pattern and I wonder how many pitchers they're able to sign. They are great at identifying guys in trades who have no choice and, you're right, they get to win, so maybe it's fine either way. It's interesting.
I believe you had a discussion with a commenter the other day on the wisdom of trading Singer, but I just don't see how it can happen since I fully agree with you on these lists (although I think you can slot Hernandez in somewhere, just not as closer unless he turns it around over the next six weeks). There are just too many spots to fill to let go of the one pitcher who has proven he can be a competent starter. I'd really like to see Bowlan and Veneziano get some chances down the stretch. I don't see it with Zerpa, I have to say. And I'm still intrigued by Heasley, too, so I guess we can both be idiots on that one.
Nobody is idiots on Heasley. Lol. Pitchers are fickle. My mind is just made up on him but that doesn’t mean I’m right or wrong. I just need the Royals to make up a mind on him and they don’t even need to make up their mind on him this year yet. Use this season fully for what it is giving you and keep trying things out as long as you actually come to some conclusions.
If you're worried about the 2024 roster, you absolutely cannot trade Singer. If you're thinking long game, you don't have a choice but to at least see what kind of return he could bring. It's a tough line they have to straddle here, and my guess is Singer isn't traded because they're going to want to take a step forward in the win column. But if they do give some looks to the guys in the minors and they look good, maybe?
Unrelated topic but its a Friday afternoon. Saw the Dodgers are calling up the first round draft pick of this year….from 6 weeks ago. After I think the Skeens dude was called up. I don’t know what to make of it….if anything. But if there was a mlb ready player in the draft after the Royals picked and they went high school catcher….that’s interesting. Again, no knocking anyone or blaming anything, i just find it fascinating that multiple players from this draft are now in the bigs.
It's the Angels and they're desperate. Also, Skenes hasn't been called up, best I know.
Edit to add: This is also the day that teams can call players up and they won't lose rookie/prospect eligibility for next year. That means they don't lose any potential award incentives for 2024, which essentially makes this an extended spring training look.
I did my own list before I read this to see how it compares, and I came up with
- Singer
- Marsh
- Ragans
- McMillon?
- Hernandez?
- please just cut everyone else
I might be too bullish on Marsh and Ragans, but I have chosen to be optimistic for the sake of my own mental health.
On the other hand I might be too quick to dismiss some of the younger bullpen arms because of the Mariners series. Hopefully, though, any returning relievers will begin next year at the bottom of the bullpen until they prove themselves, because it really sucks to lose games this way.
Get aboard the Ragans train baby! Marsh….I want to believe. I really do. I can see it…..but and its a big but. The walks are killer man. If he could ever figure out some command I be a lot more bullish. Until then, I just struggle with him. A lot of guys never get over that hump, a lot of guys figure it out after a change of scenery, keep giving him shots. But he’s one that’s hard for me to see at this moment anyway.
I think your list is fair and they'll all be on next season's roster barring a trade. I think I was looking at it a bit different as players who have definitively proven they belong on next season's roster without question. Your five plus probably Austin Cox, Daniel Lynch IV (if healthy) and Dylan Coleman are likely big leaguers too.
They can take all of their relievers and exchange them for another set from Triple A. They need to learn to throw strikes! Question, did the player's union outlaw a team's "kangaroo court" for when a player makes a dumb play? Just wondering... Enjoy your weekend. Nice win today, but the relievers still give me heartburn.
Exactly spot on, unfortunately. I do think Hernandez should be penciled into the bullpen, although not as the closer (at least not yet). Lots of work to do on the free agent and trade market.
I'm probably being unfair with him given that I'm the one preaching the stuff is fine but the command is just slightly off, so you're right there.
David, I feel like I’m always bringing your positive vibes down to reality. This time around, I’m going to bring them up a little bit. Look, on offense, the royals are……Cleveland Guardians. I can at least work with that. Give me a super star in the middle (Witt, Ramirez)…fine Ramirez has more track record…I understand but just go with me people. Naylor/Vinny…yes, I understand Naylor has more of a track record at this point, and then…..JAG’s. And JAGS probably isn’t fair, but my point is on offense the Royals can survive and be around .500 like the Guardians. Pitching is no where close….but point is, we have 50% figured out for the next few years.
We’ve kind of touched on this in past comments. But bullpen, I’m not worried about. We have enough guys with stuff or failed starters that they will find another Hernandez next year. I’m hopeful it’s the dude that just came up that throws gas. There will be another Hernandez the year after that. You can build a pen quickly. Go get Lopez, I’m all for the help. I do however have to say….I don’t see it with Heasley man. I hope he figures it out….but I just don’t see what you see with him. Lol.
Starters - Here is where I don’t know how we become the Guardians. It is obviously going to be dependent on the A folks developing. The starting pitching is the only thing that really has me putting pause on this thing. They will be better next year I’m sure of that. But not competitive better until they figure that part out. Not only do they only have Singer….(I’d throw Ragans in..but I get it)….as you see with pitching injuries everywhere…you need about 8 of them. Lol. So long ways to go and Singer is the one dude that I think they would trade that can bring a lot back. Maybe you get 3 pitchers in a deal for him and help jump start this thing. Sign Montgomery, get some competence in here and it would be a start. 25 can be a competitive year.
Just realized the Royals are 27th in runs and the Guardians are 28th. It’s not great, I’m not saying the offense is great. I’m saying with a little pitching they can be a whole lot closer to .500!!!
Crap David, I’m doing the math here…..even if they find two more answers next year. Let’s say they have 4…..with injuries and we are saying we need 8 competent to slightly below average…they would still need to find 4. Maybe sign one, so we have 5. Whew it will be close. They can be competitive by 25 right?!
I really do believe they can be competitive in 2025. They need to add some pieces, but while I wouldn't say it's probable because it's hard to say a 39-84 team is probable to contend the season after next. But I'd say it's very possible.
As dim as it looks to see 13 spots and one "lock," I'm surprisingly not as down on the future as I could be. I'm down on the start of 2024 for sure, but the bullpen is a pretty easy thing to fix even though the Royals have sure made it look hard.
On the Heasley front, I see it if he's 96+. I don't see it if he's not. But I've seen him at 96+ and I wonder if they don't move on from him if he can train to maintain that. Also, I'm sure you've seen some thoughts from my friend Alex Duvall, and I tend to agree, he's tipping his pitches and that's a pretty easy fix too, especially with an offseason of work on it. But, like I said, I won't think twice if they non-tender him.
The starters are where I find it tougher, but you also need fewer. You say eight. That's fine. I think you need seven to 10, so that's perfect. You need like 16 relievers. It probably evens out because of how many guys can't throw six innings but can throw one or two, but they've got Singer (for now). Let's say Champlain is something. Ragans, I'm in on, but can't put him on *this* list just yet. That's three. Marsh? Maybe. Zerpa? I lean no, but maybe. Veneziano, I also lean no, but maybe. There are free agents. There are trades, especially if they move forward with trading Salvy. So there's a path. It's a lot of work, but there's a path.
I mean, this exercise you did makes it painstakingly clear you need talent coming up all the time. This wave thing….hopefully this is the last time it happens. Because, if they can’t figure out some pitching its could be a fun couple of years on offense but has me a little worried it turns into 2000-2002 teams.
And it may just be wishful thinking on my part. But they are in an area where they almost have to move Salvy for some pitching. If you can’t you can’t, and it doesn’t have to be pitching but gonna have to get creative to get some more pitching in. We’ll see.
Surely you are hearing the Marlins would throw in Eury Perez right? Right?!?!
I would be hesitant to say they have to move him for pitching. Pitching comes in almost every deal, so I'm sure a trade will involve pitchers, but I want to find the best deal possible (though with a limited number of teams involved due to the NTC). If it's three shortstops, great, figure out what to do with them. If it's three pitchers, great, you've got three pitchers. But they have a lot they need to do.
This is just for my personal enjoyment. But Civale, goes to the Rays and through three starts has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of his career. Small sample size alert. But I know he is having TJ before the all-star break next year. I just know it.
It’s almost to the point of as a player, you know you will get better and put up better results. But you have to know you will get injured as well. Does that stop some? It’s getting pretty obvious over there…but they win, so maybe nobody cares they put these guys through the meat grinder. Interesting situation brewing.
Civale is walking fewer batters, but he's also not striking out anymore. I'd be more concerned if they were altering his pitch mix more than they have. But it's a definite pattern and I wonder how many pitchers they're able to sign. They are great at identifying guys in trades who have no choice and, you're right, they get to win, so maybe it's fine either way. It's interesting.
I believe you had a discussion with a commenter the other day on the wisdom of trading Singer, but I just don't see how it can happen since I fully agree with you on these lists (although I think you can slot Hernandez in somewhere, just not as closer unless he turns it around over the next six weeks). There are just too many spots to fill to let go of the one pitcher who has proven he can be a competent starter. I'd really like to see Bowlan and Veneziano get some chances down the stretch. I don't see it with Zerpa, I have to say. And I'm still intrigued by Heasley, too, so I guess we can both be idiots on that one.
Nobody is idiots on Heasley. Lol. Pitchers are fickle. My mind is just made up on him but that doesn’t mean I’m right or wrong. I just need the Royals to make up a mind on him and they don’t even need to make up their mind on him this year yet. Use this season fully for what it is giving you and keep trying things out as long as you actually come to some conclusions.
If you're worried about the 2024 roster, you absolutely cannot trade Singer. If you're thinking long game, you don't have a choice but to at least see what kind of return he could bring. It's a tough line they have to straddle here, and my guess is Singer isn't traded because they're going to want to take a step forward in the win column. But if they do give some looks to the guys in the minors and they look good, maybe?
Unrelated topic but its a Friday afternoon. Saw the Dodgers are calling up the first round draft pick of this year….from 6 weeks ago. After I think the Skeens dude was called up. I don’t know what to make of it….if anything. But if there was a mlb ready player in the draft after the Royals picked and they went high school catcher….that’s interesting. Again, no knocking anyone or blaming anything, i just find it fascinating that multiple players from this draft are now in the bigs.
Nolan Shanuel….11th overall pick I guess…21 year old. We don’t need a first baseman….but I’m a little irritated by that. LOL.
It's the Angels and they're desperate. Also, Skenes hasn't been called up, best I know.
Edit to add: This is also the day that teams can call players up and they won't lose rookie/prospect eligibility for next year. That means they don't lose any potential award incentives for 2024, which essentially makes this an extended spring training look.
I did my own list before I read this to see how it compares, and I came up with
- Singer
- Marsh
- Ragans
- McMillon?
- Hernandez?
- please just cut everyone else
I might be too bullish on Marsh and Ragans, but I have chosen to be optimistic for the sake of my own mental health.
On the other hand I might be too quick to dismiss some of the younger bullpen arms because of the Mariners series. Hopefully, though, any returning relievers will begin next year at the bottom of the bullpen until they prove themselves, because it really sucks to lose games this way.
Get aboard the Ragans train baby! Marsh….I want to believe. I really do. I can see it…..but and its a big but. The walks are killer man. If he could ever figure out some command I be a lot more bullish. Until then, I just struggle with him. A lot of guys never get over that hump, a lot of guys figure it out after a change of scenery, keep giving him shots. But he’s one that’s hard for me to see at this moment anyway.
I think your list is fair and they'll all be on next season's roster barring a trade. I think I was looking at it a bit different as players who have definitively proven they belong on next season's roster without question. Your five plus probably Austin Cox, Daniel Lynch IV (if healthy) and Dylan Coleman are likely big leaguers too.
A year ago I would have told you Coleman was the next closer on this team. Woof. Way off.
And a year from now he might be the best reliever on the team. Things change fast with relievers.
They can take all of their relievers and exchange them for another set from Triple A. They need to learn to throw strikes! Question, did the player's union outlaw a team's "kangaroo court" for when a player makes a dumb play? Just wondering... Enjoy your weekend. Nice win today, but the relievers still give me heartburn.
The lack of depth causes pitchers to have to do more than they are capable of.
I think Marsh, Lynch and maybe Veneziano can be fine middle relievers for a handful of seasons. But they have to start cuz there is nobody else.
It’s a trickle down effect. Because these guys start, other guys who need more seasoning in Omaha have to come up and pitch in the bullpen.
Everyone is asked to do more than their skill set.
A couple will step up, but the majority get exposed as AAAA players.
Excellent analysis of our pitching which is dim to say the least!