Extension Talk: Brady Singer

The Royals righty went from someone who may not make it through his team-controlled years to someone they'll want to explore keeping long after.

The first two years of Brady Singer’s career were probably better than you’d expect if you read how frustrated I was with him last year, but certainly worse than the Royals would have hoped when they drafted him in the first round in 2018. As you know, he made his big league debut in 2020 and pitched the season’s second game. My guess is if the season had started when it was supposed to start, he would have started the first game of the year for Omaha. But it didn’t and he didn’t, so here we are. And he showed signs of what he could become. He struck out seven in his first start, took a no-hitter deep into the game in ninth start and gave up four runs on nine hits in 24 innings total over his final four starts.

But 2021 was a grind for him. He had a rough start to start the season. Then he was okay, then very good for a couple of starts. Then he got hit by a line drive and it was just a rollercoaster the rest of the season. He’d follow up terrible starts with very good ones, very good starts with terrible starts and he’d mix in a few super high pitch count games where the results were fine but he couldn’t get deep enough into a game to matter. He also got a little surly when asked about his changeup and using that pitch. And from my perspective, it felt like he wasn’t willing to own up to any issues or do what he needed to do to take control of his career.

The shortened spring, in my opinion, hurt Singer more than just about anyone. He only got into three games and walked seven batters in 7.1 innings. He did not win a spot in the rotation, instead he would pitch out of the bullpen. He made one relief appearance in that 17-3 game and gave up some runs. Then he made two more relief outings where he looked dominant. The sinker had run that it didn’t have previously. That’s when the Royals sent him to Omaha to stretch out to get back to the rotation. They had a need and he was doing what they wanted. In Omaha, he started throwing his changeup more, which the Royals have indicated is a big pitch to help get his delivery right to get the movement he needs.

And since he made that start on May 17, he’s been really good. He’s made 18 total starts and allowed more than three runs in three of them. One of those three was a game he pitched into the ninth inning. He’s walked one batter or fewer in 10 of those starts. He’s stuck out six or more in 10 of those starts. Overall, the numbers are fantastic:

7-4, 3.15 ERA, 117.0 IP, 101 H, 120 K (25.6%), 29 BB (6.2%)

While he doesn’t quite qualify for the ERA title (a pitcher needs at least one inning pitched per team game; he could still get there), he fits right in on the rate stats with pitchers like Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Nestor Cortes. The pitchers who reach the strikeout rate and walk rate thresholds Singer has are almost exclusively the best of the best. In the past decade, 96 pitchers have qualified for the ERA title and struck out more than 25 percent while walking less than seven percent. This is not an exaggeration when I say that maybe five of those names are not pitchers you would have considered top-15 in baseball when they did it. Also, that’s 96 out of 630 qualified pitchers

Here’s where things get interesting. When the Royals sent Singer down on April 28 to stretch out, he was there for 19 days. He then came up as the 27th man in a doubleheader and was down for four more days. He then spent four days on the restricted list in July where he didn’t accrue service time. That’s 27 days out of a 187-day season. A player needs 172 days of service on the big league roster in order to get credit for a full season. So the Royals gained an extra year of service time for Singer. He’ll definitely be a Super 2 player (in the top 22% of service time without three full years of service), so he’ll be eligible for arbitration four times.

And this brings us to what it might take to get a guy who looks like a number two starter (or maybe even better!) locked up for the long haul.

You know how this exercise goes with me by now.

What He Could Make Without an Extension

If Singer doesn’t sign an extension, the Royals have him under team control through 2026. All four of those years will be arbitration years, so it’s hard to know for sure what he might make, but let’s take a look at Framber Valdez who was a Super 2 pitcher with 2.163 years of service time (don’t look at the .163 as a fraction, it’s just the number of days). He settled at $3 million. So that’s our jumping off point. Max Fried, with similar service time as Singer would have following 2023, got $6.85 million. Now he was better than Singer has been, but Singer could have similar numbers plus it’ll be two years after, but maybe let’s knock a bit off that and call it an even $6 million.

This is where it gets a little tricky. Looking at arbitration-eligible pitchers with 4+ years of service time, which is where Singer would be after 2024, there aren’t many to compare to. Luis Castillo got $7.35 million. I’d be surprised if that’s the jump for Singer, who benefits greatly from being in his third year of arbitration compared to second for Castillo. Lucas Giolito also got a similar number at $7.45 million. Sean Manaea was a Super 2 in his third year of arbitration in 2020 and got $5.95 million, but was based on missing so much of 2019 that he didn’t get a big raise. You have to go back to 2020 to find a Super 2 pitcher in arbitration that fits with Singer and that was Noah Syndergaard. He got $9.7 million. I think that’s probably close. I’d give Singer a bit less given Syndergaard’s track record, so maybe let’s call it an even $9 million just to make things easy.

And then, as we’ve discussed with Brad Keller, players can compare themselves to free agents. Manaea got $9.75 million this season in his fourth and final year of arbitration, but again, he started off at a disadvantage. In 2020, both Marcus Stroman and James Paxton got eight digits in arbitration and Gerrit Cole and Tanner Roark (yes really) did in 2019. Dallas Keuchel also did in 2018. You can see how rare it is. I guess most of these guys have signed extensions. So I don’t know. Maybe look at around $13 million for Singer in 2026 if he’s still going through arbitration.

That’s a total of $31 million over the next four seasons for him. That’s if everything goes smoothly and he doesn’t suffer any injuries. If we’re looking at a free agent contract for him and we’re basing it off his 2022 season that he’s having, I think you can look at the deals for guys like Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray as indicators and say he’s likely to get somewhere around five years and $110 million, so $22 million per year. Again, this is the road where he continues doing what he’s done for 18 starts. Which means, to lock him up for, say, six years, that would be six years and $75 million.

But if the Royals were going to play that game, why sign the extension? Just let him go year to year and you can get out from it if there are any issues. Which is why we now have to turn to comps.

Comparable Pitcher Extensions

I’m going to save my favorite comparable extension for last because that’s how you keep readers hooked.

Sonny Gray

Gray signed a four year, $38 million deal for his final two years of arbitration and his first two free agent years. It’s not a perfect match, but we can at least look ahead a little on this. He made about $17.7 million on the two arbitration years of the deal and $20.3 million on the two free agent years of the deal along with an option for $12 million in 2023.

Luis Severino

The timing of Severino’s deal is pretty perfect for what Singer is looking at. He was signed with 2.170 years of service time, but the Yankees only guaranteed him through his arbitration years. His deal was for $40 million for those four years with a $15 million option for what is now next year, which is his first year of free agency.

German Marquez

Marquez signed his deal before he became arbitration eligible, but the five years and $43 million include $23.9 million for his three arbitration years, $15.3 million for what would be his first free agent year and a $16 million option for what would be his second free agent year.

Sandy Alcantara

The Marlins bought at the exact right time, which is sort of what happened with the Royals and Zack Greinke before his 2009 season. They gave him a five year deal for $56 million after a very good 2021 year that proved he could throw some innings effectively. The contract bought out his three arbitration years at $20.4 million and two free agent years and $34.6 million with a $21 million option for his third free agent year.

Those are four good ones. But the one that stands out to me is…

Aaron Nola

He was coming off his best season where he finished third in the Cy Young voting, so that has to be accounted for, but the Phillies gave him four years and $45 million to cover his three arbitration years and one free agent year, along with an option for $16 million. The arbitration years cost them $25.25 million and then $15.5 million for the free agent year before the option.

The Contract

Now that we have all these numbers circling in our head like Zack Galifinakis in The Hangover, we can make some sense of it. I mentioned that Singer could expect $31 million in his four arbitration years if all goes well. The Yankees guaranteed Severino $40 million in those years, which seems kind of ridiculous now, but money is no object to them. Let’s start with the Nola deal as a guide.

His salary progression through arbitration was $4.5 million - $8.5 million - $12.25 million. But again, he got those numbers after putting up a near Cy Young season. Singer has been good, but barring his final seven or eight starts looking like prime Max Scherzer or something, I don’t think he’ll be considered one of the best of the best. And there’s also the fourth year of arbitration, which he can consider sort of like a free agent year with no bidding war, but in an extension, you don’t want to do that. I think it makes sense to lop off about 30 percent of each Nola number for the first three years.

Year 1 - $3.2 million
Year 2 - $5.8 million
Year 3 - $8.6 million

That’s $17.6 million for three arbitration years. The fourth year is tricky. Almost all of these pitchers got $15 million or so in their first free agent year on their deal. But, again, this wouldn’t be an open market negotiation, whereas if the others hadn’t signed theirs, that year would have been. So the Royals should be looking for cost certainty here and Singer’s agency should also understand that. What’s a fair number? Is it $11.5 million? I think that’s reasonable and a solid raise. If Singer reverts back to a solid pitcher who isn’t especially great, that’s the standard contract for a mid-rotation starter.

So now we’re at four years and $29.1 million. If that feels a little too close to the best case scenario, I sort of do agree, but I also can’t see a scenario where he would sign away those years for a lot less. Maybe you can cut off $250k from each year or something like that to look like $3 million - $5.5 million - $8.3 million and $11.2 million and end up at $28 million over four years. Let’s go with that.

The free agent years are tough here. While he would make $20 million or more if he continues that, the Royals likely won’t pay him as if this is the norm now after such a small track record. And Singer will want that. So where’s the compromise? Is Singer more Jon Gray/Eduardo Rodriguez? Or does he belong in the Ray/Gausman group? I think maybe you split the difference. Give him $15 million in that first year and $18 million in the second year. Doing that puts the deal at six years and $61 million. I’d drop a $23 million option or something with a $2 million buyout and you can get it to six years and $63 million.

There are two big questions. Would Singer do it and should the Royals do it? To the former, I don’t know the answer to that obviously. Maybe he wants to make sure the Royals are actually going to find a way to be competitive first. Of course, waiting raises his price if he has another good year in 2023. That’s why the Royals probably should be exploring it now. He has a career 4.07 ERA/3.86 FIP in 309.2 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is roughly three to one in his career. He’s a competent starting pitcher at worst and a very good one at best. This is absolutely the time for the Royals to do this.

Regardless, I’m just trying to see what’s fair here if he’d be willing to accept an offer. I think you could make an argument to up those first four years just a little bit and end up somewhere around six years and $67 million or you could probably make an argument given the lack of an innings track record to drop it. touch and get down to six years and $60 million. But if the Royals believe what Singer has done is for real, and I don’t see any reason it isn’t, they should be trying to get this done ASAP and lock up a big part of their rotation for the near future.