Final Royals Roster Projection

Opening Day is one week away, so let's fill out that Royals roster.

Weather permitting, the season will begin exactly one week after today’s newsletter posts. You know what that means - it’s time for the final roster projection of the spring. It hasn’t changed a ton over the first few iterations, but I have hinted at a few things that I thought might shift over the next few days. A couple of them have. Today I’m going to look at the entire roster rather than break it up because it really isn’t that different from what I put out last week. With the stats, I’ll be using what they’ve done this spring because, hey, why not?

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Catchers

Salvador Perez: 36 PA, .306/.306/.611, 3 HR, 5 K, 0 BB
Freddy Fermin: 18 PA, .333/.333/.400, 0 HR, 2 K, 2 BB

This hasn’t changed and I’m not surprised. I still think there’s a path to carrying three catchers at some point this season if and when the Royals decide Perez is going to DH and play first base mostly, but right now, the roster just doesn’t support that. With Perez and Fermin, I think there’s at least a decent chance that the Royals get the most home runs out of their catcher position in 2024. Last year, the Braves led baseball with 32. It wouldn’t surprise me too much if these two combine for 35-40 while catching.

Next Up: Austin Nola is on the 40-man and they like him. I’ll be pretty surprised if he doesn’t get big league time this year. Luca Tresh could also get a shot as he’s starting to look like they might like him as a backup down the road.

Infielders

Nick Pratto: 38 PA, .412/.474/.765, 3 HR, 7 K, 2 BB
Vinnie Pasquantino: 39 PA, .257/.333/.457, 1 HR, 3 K, 4 BB
Michael Massey: 30 PA, .233/.233/.533, 2 HR, 5 K, 0 BB
Bobby Witt Jr: 45 PA, .372/.378/.628, 3 HR, 2 K, 1 BB
Maikel Garcia: 33 PA, .346/.455/.615, 2 HR, 6 K, 6 BB
Adam Frazier: 38 PA, .188/.316/.281, 0 HR, 5 K, 5 BB
Garrett Hampson: 36 PA, .161/.278/.226, 0 HR, 10 K, 5 BB

We have a change! I mentioned last week that Pratto was fighting his way into the discussion with his strong spring and Nelson Velazquez was losing his old on his roster spot, at least to start the year. Pratto hasn’t stopped hitting and Velazquez still hasn’t started. Spring stats are what they are, but I just think it will be extremely difficult for the Royals to not reward Pratto for his spring, given that the competition both has options and hasn’t shown nearly enough.

On the flip side, I’m just not seeing how the Royals can reward Nick Loftin (.343/.452/.543 in 42 PA) for his bonkers spring and that upsets me. If you were able to watch on Tuesday night on MLB.tv on the Giants broadcast, you’d have seen Loftin hit a home run to right-center field. He’s versatile, he has some pop, he puts the bat on the ball and I just don’t know how he can get onto this roster because of the signing of Adam Frazier. Now, Michael Massey did get scratched from the lineup on Tuesday night, so that would provide an opening if it keeps Massey out for more than a couple of days. I guess we’ll see on that.

Of course, even from the start of that paragraph to the end of it, I’ve almost changed my mind and thought the Royals might only carry their starting three outfielders and use their backup infielders out there. Frazier, Hampson, Loftin and Pratto all have outfield experience. I’m struggling a lot with this because Loftin is one of the 13 best position players and it’s tough to say you believe you can win a division without taking your best group north. I mentioned this in a Crown Jewels, but I suppose there is a chance they don’t keep Hampson? I just don’t know. That seems unlikely. I guess we’ll see here.

I assume the team will line up with Pratto at first on most days with Massey (if healthy, of course), Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. making up the rest of the infield. But Frazier and Garrett Hampson will rotate in from time to time as well as in the outfield. Vinnie Pasquantino will DH and play first. I’d guess we’ll see Pratto on the bench against some tougher lefties and maybe even in a corner outfield spot on some days. It’ll be a puzzle for Matt Quatraro.

Next Up: Loftin, if he can’t find his way onto the roster is obviously the easiest answer. But Devin Mann and Cam Devanney are also solid options as utility infielders, which makes the Frazier signing even more silly in my mind.

Outfielders

MJ Melendez: 43 PA, .306/.419/.611, 2 HR, 7 K, 5 BB
Kyle Isbel: 36 PA, .344/.417/.500, 4 K, 4 BB
Hunter Renfroe: 29 PA, .160/.276/.160, 0 HR, 6 K, 4 BB
Dairon Blanco 19 PA, .316/.316/.368, 0 HR, 2 K, 0 BB

The Royals have built a roster where a guy who hit 14 home runs in less than two months just doesn’t make it. They’ve also built a roster where there just isn’t room for a guy who was competing for a starting job in center field last year after putting up a 124 wRC+ the previous year in a limited sample debut. Those two are, of course, Velazquez and Drew Waters. I think there are arguments for either of them to make the roster, spring stats be damned, but I also think it’s pretty easy to find a reason to stash them in AAA to start the season.

The math just doesn’t work for Velazquez if Pratto is going to be on the roster. It certainly doesn’t help how bad of a spring Velazquez has had, but I just can’t put this roster together with both of those guys on the roster given what else they have. Melendez has had a great spring, Renfroe was signed to be the starting right fielder and Isbel won the job before 2023 even ended. For him, he’s had a really good spring offensively and can be a big part of a good lineup if he’s simply a 90-95 wRC+. He hasn’t shown he can be that, but he was at 85 in the second half last year.

I’m repeating myself from previous projections, but I have Blanco as the fourth outfielder because I think he just fits better than Waters as a reserve. Waters needs regular reps to keep his swings the way he wants them and I don’t see him getting those at this point. There’s nothing wrong with having real depth at AAA and I think Waters will be there ready to go if something happens to any of the starting three. Blanco works in a a role where he starts once or twice a week and comes in games late for defense and base running.

Next Up: It’s pretty obvious, but Waters, Velazquez and Tyler Gentry will be the guys they’ll turn to if and when they need reinforcements. I’m not saying they’re great, though Velazquez did look like a monster power hitter for a time last year. But that’s the sort of depth good teams do have. They’re not needing to go out and sign Jackie Bradley Jr., if you catch my drift here.

Starting Pitchers

Cole Ragans: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 16 K, 3 BB
Seth Lugo: 11.1 IP, 7.15 ERA, 11 K, 3 BB
Michael Wacha: 9.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 10 K, 4 BB
Brady Singer: 16.0 IP, 7.31 ERA, 14 K, 8 BB
Alec Marsh: 14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA, 17 K, 4 BB

This group shouldn’t be a surprise even with Marsh working his way into the mix. I wrote about it on Monday and I think if the Royals are serious about it being a competition, and they’re sticking to that, you can’t go with Lyles. I do think there’s an argument to be made for Daniel Lynch IV. He’s at least gotten outs in his outings. He doesn’t strike out enough and the velocity isn’t fully back yet (if it ever will be), but he’s at least had a good spring. After the announcement he’s going to Omaha, I think Marsh is the guy and he secures that last spot.

I had an interesting back and forth on Twitter with my guy Alex Duvall where he was talking about Brady Singer struggling last night. He was saying that if Singer doesn’t get it right, the season takes a pretty big hit. And he’s not wrong. Singer is one of the four locks in this rotation for a reason. If he can be 80 percent of what he was in 2022, this team looks strong enough to surprise. But what I’m pleased by is that if he does struggle, it’s the number four starter struggling. Last year, when he struggled, it was their best starter struggling. There’s a big difference there. The Royals need Singer to be much better to have a shot to outperform and compete for a division, but bringing in talent really helps to guard against issues like him.

Ultimately, I can’t say I’m confident Marsh will get the most starts out of the fifth starter competition. I’d say I’m hopeful because that would be what’s best for the Royals if he’s good enough to stay there. But I just think he’s done everything he needs to do and some recent comments by JJ Picollo publicly wondering if Jordan Lyles is stretched out enough makes me believe they’re learning toward not him in the rotation. And, again, if not him, Marsh makes the most sense.

Noon-ish Edit: This is confirmed. Alec Marsh is in the rotation.

Next Up: I think your two runners-up for the fifth starter job are obvious. They announced last night that Lynch was optioned to Omaha to stay starting and ready to go and hopefully get that velocity bump he’s been looking to get. Lyles, you’ll see in the next section, may not start again. But I think if something happens early enough, he’ll get a few opportunities. Angel Zerpa is also there in the bullpen.

As the season goes on, more possibilities emerge. Anthony Veneziano is still seen as a starter and even though he hasn’t pitched a ton this spring, he could be good to go pretty quickly. Kris Bubic returns at the break. Matt Sauer could work his way into a chance. Prospects Mason Barnett and Chandler Champlain can take those next steps. Not all of them will become options but likely some will.

Relievers

Will Smith: 7.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 5 K, 3 BB
Chris Stratton: 7.1 IP, 8.59 ERA, 6 K, 2 BB
Nick Anderson: 7.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 5 K, 2 BB
John Schreiber: 6.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 6 K, 0 BB
James McArthur: 8.1 IP, 1.08 ERA, 12 K, 1 BB
Angel Zerpa: 9.2 IP, 6.52 ERA, 9 K, 2 BB
Matt Sauer: 9.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 11 K, 3 BB
Jordan Lyles: 5.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 4 K, 1 BB

The bullpen’s first five guys and Sauer have been consistent all spring. The other two spots have rotated. I’ve had Carlos Hernandez and Jake Brentz there at times. Both are now hurt. I’ve had John McMillon in here before and I think he’ll be back pretty quick as he gets ramped up. I think I had Josh Taylor in there last time. The good news is there are a lot of options.

Ultimately, I think the bullpen rounds out with Zerpa and Lyles. I really wanted to put Sam Long in with some bonkers spring numbers, but Zerpa was already announced that he’d made the team. The Royals absolutely want a second lefty. I thought they’d want to keep Zerpa stretched out a bit more, but they’ll use him in multi-inning stints so it’ll be him for now with Long hopefully not opting out and providing depth.

And Lyles is still under contract. I don’t think I’d be shocked if the Royals just go ahead and move on before the season and give this final spot to one of the five or six others who should be in consideration, but I’ll be surprised. Having a legitimate long man, especially early in the year isn’t the worst thing in the world, so that’s sort of where I’ve landed with him. It’s also worth noting that since they don’t need a fifth starter until the ninth game, Marsh will likely work out of the bullpen at least once before his first start, assuming my projection is correct and he’s the fifth starter.

Next Up: Lots of names are on this list. I think the number one name is John McMillon once he gets back to where the Royals want him. If I’m Lyles, I’m worried about McMillon more than anyone if I want to keep my roster spot. Otherwise, Long, Taylor, Walter Pennington, Veneziano, Jonathan Bowlan, Will Klein, Evan Sisk, Steven Cruz, Andrew Hoffmann, Beck Way and even some of the other fifth starter candidates could get some run in the bullpen. Hernandez and Brentz will theoretically get healthy at some point too. There are a lot of options here and a fair amount of depth.

I have never felt less confident a week out about some spots than I do this year. I think that’s a good thing. But I just have a feeling I’m going to be wrong on way more than usual. I’m also going to stress something I’ve stressed so much. This roster is going to change throughout the year. To say this again, the roster you see on March 28 seems more meaningful than the one you see on May 17 or June 29 or August 21 or whatever, but they’re all just one day in a long season. Maikel Garcia didn’t come up until May and only three guys had more plate appearances than he did. Generally the cream rises to the top. Loftin isn’t on this projection, but would anyone be surprised if he’s up by mid-April? It’s fun to look at Opening Day, but I think it’s important to remember that.