great article. Hampson and Frazier don't really pass the eye test at the plate or in the field. They kicked the ball around on the televised game this week. Obviously a very small sample size. I hope Loftin gets the call over one of these guys.
Thanks, Bob. The issue with both of the veterans is they can’t be sent to Omaha and guys given free agent big league deals don’t often not make it to Opening Day for a number of reasons.
If Pratto makes the roster……I have little patience with him. So he better make contact. Lol.
Sometimes I’m too negative, but this is a big league roster now. Yes, technically…it’s a big league roster every year….but I’m saying it is ACTUALLY now a big league roster. If Singer is your 4th starter. Good. If Waters is the first man up from AAA, that’s better. I’m not saying they are good yet. And they are probably another year away where the bottom of the roster needs to get even better. They desperately need to get the minors rolling because signing 6 guys every year is an impossible task. The top of the roster is fine, the bottom of the roster is better. The big thing is they have to improve the middle of the roster next. Need more 2-3 WAR guys. Not all stars, but legit above average players. It’s not easy….but we are farther down the road now.
Sure. I don't think he's going to have a particularly long leash given that Velazquez, Gentry, Waters and even Loftin can replace him on the roster and the roster still makes as much sense as it did before.
Though I will argue that you pretty easily can sign 6 guys every year given what the free agent market looks like. I don't think it's ideal, but it's certainly possible to fill out the roster.
Maybe it is. It seemed like a bit of a weird offseason which a bunch of teams not really doing much. I kinda wonder if more teams are going to look at what the Royals did this offseason and say “we can do that” which might change the market a bit. All teams should be interested in Wacha and Lugo on a one year deal. I guess Lugo’s is two….but Wacha seemed like on a one year and an opt out could help a lot of teams.
They might, but if you look at every normal offseason for the past handful of years, there are always guys like the guys the Royals signed out there for a year or two. Obviously it's not the way they'd prefer to build a team year to year, but I do actually think it's doable.
Great piece and I agree with a lot of your picks, especially in lieu of the Lynch and Zerpa news. Think the rotation and bullpen just got a bit clearer.
I find it hard to believe that Long will stick around if he doesn't make the team. He's got big league experience and had a great spring. I think those two combos would attract some interest from a team, especially one that may be rebuilding or is in need of bullpen help. I do think the Royals like him quite a bit, and it seems like there's been some buzz around him from Anne and Jaylon, which I think is a sign that he may be a favorite to make the club.
Which leads to the next thing, I feel like we're hearing more and more buzz that Sauer may not be a lock to make this team. Feel like Anne's piece hinted at that, and Josh Vernier in his pod did as well by mentioning that Sauer may have made sense on last year's team, but not this year. Do you think Sauer is in danger of being returned to the Yankees? I think that would be a bummer especially since he did so well this Spring. But if Zerpa is the long-term guy, and if they really like Long, I wonder if Sauer is the odd guy out. And if the Royals still want to hold onto Sauer, do you think they trade for him like they did with Stephen Woods back in 2021?
Any thoughts or insight on this would be appreciated! Thanks!
Sauer and Long is where I really got held up because I keep getting conflicting information on Sauer. Yeah, I've seen some of the stuff about him not making the team (though I haven't heard Vern's stuff yet), and I totally get it, but I also keep hearing from people that the Royals really like him. So sure, could trade for him. That would make some sense, I guess, but I'm just of the mind that they don't need to give anything for him if they want to keep him and he's looked good this spring. And as good as Long has looked this spring, he's 28 with a career 18.5 percent strikeout rate and 9 percent walk rate in 128 innings. I just don't know how much you move things around for that guy.
So it's an interesting question and one that I had when writing this and honestly just kind of slipped my mind when I got to that section to write about.
Same. When I did mine recently, I had Long and Sauer making it initially. Zerpa being announced as making the team has muddled that a lot quite a bit and hard to see the Opening Day roster having both those guys on it.
That's good that there's some positive news at least about Sauer from the club. Haven't heard that much which made me wonder. While I like Long, I would rather give Sauer a shot and see what he can do rather than Long, who like you said, is out of options and is 28. Plus, as you said, I don't want to trade anything of value for Sauer, especially on a prospect end.
It's both a good and bad thing there's this much roster uncertainty, I think. Some of it is just because of unnecessary moves. I get the idea of roster insurance, but Adam Frazier isn't helping anything. But they do have legitimate options, which is not something we've been able to say every year.
The Sauer situation is a perfect example of the tight spot the Royals face in terms of roster construction. They want to contend, and we want them to contend, but as David noted in connection with Loftin, if they're all-in to contend, logic demands you take your 26 best players to Opening Day (setting aside corner cases like leaving a 5th starter behind because you won't need him due to scheduling quirks). However, if they're trying to set themselves up to contend next year, alternative choices are more logical.
Maybe keeping Sauer for free ends up being the right choice for either path, but it's definitely the right choice if your focus is on the future. Maybe it's worth downgrading from Loftin to Hampson in order to let Loftin get more ABs than he would as a bench guy in KC. Seeing how it all shakes out may be more instructive as to where JJ's mindset is than anything he's said publicly.
I think we will get some decent insight into how they see the team. Do they see it how I do? I think they're a below average team with a chance to surprise and win a bad division. But do the Royals think they're an average team that needs some things to go right but not as much as I believe? I don't know. And yeah, we'll see how they feel with the roster. But some of it is out of their hands. Well, it was in their hands to start, but previous decisions can make it tough to make future ones, in the cases of Hampson/Loftin/Frazier.
I like Michael Massey and believe there is some potential there, but when he was scratched the other day all I could think was this is Loftin's golden opportunity. With the spring he's had, I think I'd rather see him on opening day than Massey.
I don't know if I prefer Loftin to Massey given the pedigree, but yeah, this could definitely be his chance. They're still sort of evaluating how Massey is, but they seem to not be too concerned.
Good stuff, David. Releasing or dumping Lyles on someone else would would be the move to show the team has learned from keeping Hunter Dozier a year (or more) too long. Cut your losses and roll with it.
I think it's worth noting that they cut Dozier earlier than a lot of teams would. He was let go in May and was still owed for all of 2023 *and* 2024. Most teams don't go that early. I feel like they've shown they'll walk away from someone, but I also don't know that they'd do it right now. I can tell you they'd love to trade him, but who is taking him on?
How you don’t include Loftin tells me a lot about the goals of this organization. Winning ball games doesn’t appear to be one of those goals. We keep a guy that has eternal potential but in 500+ ABs, still hasn’t, but is deemed “unlucky”. We keep a couple of “grizzled old veterans” that we hope and pray can find one more good year in the sun. We leave what could be our leading hitter and another that probably would be our leading HR guy in Omaha
Not saying it's right, but I think you'd be surprised how many good teams don't take their best 26 on Opening Day. It's a long season and things generally work out in the end. But I also agree with your general point.
Hi David, I don't see the difference between being a number 3 starter or 1 starter or a 2 or 4 starter. You mentioned it's not as bad this because Singer won't be 1 starter but if you look at the whole season don't they all start an equal number of games? thanks, William
My point is that he's the fourth best starter, not the best starter. It doesn't really have much to do with where they slot in the rotation as much as how important they are to the team's success.
I feel like Loftin is criminally underrated by the cadre of Royals bloggers. For whatever reason, I see a good deal of fawning over guys like Isbell, Gentry and Wallace while Loftin is treated as kind of an afterthought. Loftin is the 2nd best prospect in the system according to pipeline and fangraphs and 3rd best according to Keith Law. He’s done nothing but produce during his short MLB tenure and during this spring training. I get he’s no superstar and doesn’t have any “loud” tools, but it just feels like he’s oddly overlooked and discounted vis-a-vis other equal or lessor prospects.
I should add Massey to the list of guys who seem to get more attention/love from the bloggers compared to Loftin. Loftin is younger than Gentry, Massey and Isbell as well.
I'd probably argue that point. There's plenty of love for Nick Loftin. Heck, I thought he'd take a step forward and become a top-100 prospect last season. It didn't happen. But I think there are some reasonable concerns with him. He's never put up numbers that even approached what Gentry and Massey have in the minors. His batted ball metrics aren't great (not horrible either) and he's not an especially elite defender. He's a good player. I like him a lot. But I think it's also easy to see potential in him because he hasn't yet failed.
That’s fair and maybe you’ve been higher on him than some of the other writers. I still think most of the professional prospect evaluators have been higher on Loftin than Gentry, Massey and Isbell.
I think Loftin, Gentry and Massey have all been similarly rated. Isbel was never thought *that* highly, but he's also the only one of the four who has an elite trait and that's his defense.
I don’t think Gentry and Massey were ever top three in the system on three different lists at the same time, but I’m too lazy to look it up. Appreciate the back and forth. Love chatting Royals and love the newsletter.
At the beginning of spring i really thought this roster was cut and dry, but apparently not. I actually still kinda like the frazier/hampson/renfroe signings to encourage competition and give some proven, though meh, options if others are struggling. But right now it kinda blows. Oddly the one I like least is the one with the costliest contract - Renfroe.
I was actually thinking of Pratto over Blanco in outfield and giving Velazquez benefit of the doubt. But honestly my memory of who passed my eyetest at what is getting spottier with all the new options. Had been secretly hoping one of the new FA gets a very very slight injury to make room for Loftin, but I will go back to positive thoughts as you are right - the dust will settle as we get farther into the season.
I am right in line with your pitching, hope they keep Sauer, but Long is interesting. Bummed with Singers performance last night after drinking spring koolaid, but if you had predicted this outing last season I would have thought probable. Meanwhile, I am going to keep drinking the sweet sweet koolaid until at least the end of May and hope there are other players I forgot about to fill any potholes
I thought signing Renfroe when they did was a mistake and a misread of the market. Tommy Pham is still out there (though close to signing). Just get him for less and without the player option year.
As for the rest, yeah, it's a long season and guys who deserve to be there generally get to be there at some point.
I am pleased to see enough depth that guys who could be big leaguers are heading down...competition is good and it's a long season... time for some of these guys to feel the heat and either learn to get the job done (toughen up)...or see ya, someone else has taken the job.
great article. Hampson and Frazier don't really pass the eye test at the plate or in the field. They kicked the ball around on the televised game this week. Obviously a very small sample size. I hope Loftin gets the call over one of these guys.
Thanks, Bob. The issue with both of the veterans is they can’t be sent to Omaha and guys given free agent big league deals don’t often not make it to Opening Day for a number of reasons.
If Pratto makes the roster……I have little patience with him. So he better make contact. Lol.
Sometimes I’m too negative, but this is a big league roster now. Yes, technically…it’s a big league roster every year….but I’m saying it is ACTUALLY now a big league roster. If Singer is your 4th starter. Good. If Waters is the first man up from AAA, that’s better. I’m not saying they are good yet. And they are probably another year away where the bottom of the roster needs to get even better. They desperately need to get the minors rolling because signing 6 guys every year is an impossible task. The top of the roster is fine, the bottom of the roster is better. The big thing is they have to improve the middle of the roster next. Need more 2-3 WAR guys. Not all stars, but legit above average players. It’s not easy….but we are farther down the road now.
Sure. I don't think he's going to have a particularly long leash given that Velazquez, Gentry, Waters and even Loftin can replace him on the roster and the roster still makes as much sense as it did before.
Though I will argue that you pretty easily can sign 6 guys every year given what the free agent market looks like. I don't think it's ideal, but it's certainly possible to fill out the roster.
Maybe it is. It seemed like a bit of a weird offseason which a bunch of teams not really doing much. I kinda wonder if more teams are going to look at what the Royals did this offseason and say “we can do that” which might change the market a bit. All teams should be interested in Wacha and Lugo on a one year deal. I guess Lugo’s is two….but Wacha seemed like on a one year and an opt out could help a lot of teams.
They might, but if you look at every normal offseason for the past handful of years, there are always guys like the guys the Royals signed out there for a year or two. Obviously it's not the way they'd prefer to build a team year to year, but I do actually think it's doable.
Great piece and I agree with a lot of your picks, especially in lieu of the Lynch and Zerpa news. Think the rotation and bullpen just got a bit clearer.
I find it hard to believe that Long will stick around if he doesn't make the team. He's got big league experience and had a great spring. I think those two combos would attract some interest from a team, especially one that may be rebuilding or is in need of bullpen help. I do think the Royals like him quite a bit, and it seems like there's been some buzz around him from Anne and Jaylon, which I think is a sign that he may be a favorite to make the club.
Which leads to the next thing, I feel like we're hearing more and more buzz that Sauer may not be a lock to make this team. Feel like Anne's piece hinted at that, and Josh Vernier in his pod did as well by mentioning that Sauer may have made sense on last year's team, but not this year. Do you think Sauer is in danger of being returned to the Yankees? I think that would be a bummer especially since he did so well this Spring. But if Zerpa is the long-term guy, and if they really like Long, I wonder if Sauer is the odd guy out. And if the Royals still want to hold onto Sauer, do you think they trade for him like they did with Stephen Woods back in 2021?
Any thoughts or insight on this would be appreciated! Thanks!
Sauer and Long is where I really got held up because I keep getting conflicting information on Sauer. Yeah, I've seen some of the stuff about him not making the team (though I haven't heard Vern's stuff yet), and I totally get it, but I also keep hearing from people that the Royals really like him. So sure, could trade for him. That would make some sense, I guess, but I'm just of the mind that they don't need to give anything for him if they want to keep him and he's looked good this spring. And as good as Long has looked this spring, he's 28 with a career 18.5 percent strikeout rate and 9 percent walk rate in 128 innings. I just don't know how much you move things around for that guy.
So it's an interesting question and one that I had when writing this and honestly just kind of slipped my mind when I got to that section to write about.
Same. When I did mine recently, I had Long and Sauer making it initially. Zerpa being announced as making the team has muddled that a lot quite a bit and hard to see the Opening Day roster having both those guys on it.
That's good that there's some positive news at least about Sauer from the club. Haven't heard that much which made me wonder. While I like Long, I would rather give Sauer a shot and see what he can do rather than Long, who like you said, is out of options and is 28. Plus, as you said, I don't want to trade anything of value for Sauer, especially on a prospect end.
Thanks!
It's both a good and bad thing there's this much roster uncertainty, I think. Some of it is just because of unnecessary moves. I get the idea of roster insurance, but Adam Frazier isn't helping anything. But they do have legitimate options, which is not something we've been able to say every year.
The Sauer situation is a perfect example of the tight spot the Royals face in terms of roster construction. They want to contend, and we want them to contend, but as David noted in connection with Loftin, if they're all-in to contend, logic demands you take your 26 best players to Opening Day (setting aside corner cases like leaving a 5th starter behind because you won't need him due to scheduling quirks). However, if they're trying to set themselves up to contend next year, alternative choices are more logical.
Maybe keeping Sauer for free ends up being the right choice for either path, but it's definitely the right choice if your focus is on the future. Maybe it's worth downgrading from Loftin to Hampson in order to let Loftin get more ABs than he would as a bench guy in KC. Seeing how it all shakes out may be more instructive as to where JJ's mindset is than anything he's said publicly.
I think we will get some decent insight into how they see the team. Do they see it how I do? I think they're a below average team with a chance to surprise and win a bad division. But do the Royals think they're an average team that needs some things to go right but not as much as I believe? I don't know. And yeah, we'll see how they feel with the roster. But some of it is out of their hands. Well, it was in their hands to start, but previous decisions can make it tough to make future ones, in the cases of Hampson/Loftin/Frazier.
I like Michael Massey and believe there is some potential there, but when he was scratched the other day all I could think was this is Loftin's golden opportunity. With the spring he's had, I think I'd rather see him on opening day than Massey.
I don't know if I prefer Loftin to Massey given the pedigree, but yeah, this could definitely be his chance. They're still sort of evaluating how Massey is, but they seem to not be too concerned.
Is there a roster limit on how many utility infielders/second baseman you can have on a team?
Not a real question…..
https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbnF3MXZ1dGx5eTZlcjZyMTJucjF0dmt1eWJmbXNzODU2eWd6amNnaCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/7JvlHfd7C2GDr7zfZF/giphy.gif
Good stuff, David. Releasing or dumping Lyles on someone else would would be the move to show the team has learned from keeping Hunter Dozier a year (or more) too long. Cut your losses and roll with it.
I think it's worth noting that they cut Dozier earlier than a lot of teams would. He was let go in May and was still owed for all of 2023 *and* 2024. Most teams don't go that early. I feel like they've shown they'll walk away from someone, but I also don't know that they'd do it right now. I can tell you they'd love to trade him, but who is taking him on?
How you don’t include Loftin tells me a lot about the goals of this organization. Winning ball games doesn’t appear to be one of those goals. We keep a guy that has eternal potential but in 500+ ABs, still hasn’t, but is deemed “unlucky”. We keep a couple of “grizzled old veterans” that we hope and pray can find one more good year in the sun. We leave what could be our leading hitter and another that probably would be our leading HR guy in Omaha
Not saying it's right, but I think you'd be surprised how many good teams don't take their best 26 on Opening Day. It's a long season and things generally work out in the end. But I also agree with your general point.
Give it a month...maybe both will be gone!
Hi David, I don't see the difference between being a number 3 starter or 1 starter or a 2 or 4 starter. You mentioned it's not as bad this because Singer won't be 1 starter but if you look at the whole season don't they all start an equal number of games? thanks, William
My point is that he's the fourth best starter, not the best starter. It doesn't really have much to do with where they slot in the rotation as much as how important they are to the team's success.
I feel like Loftin is criminally underrated by the cadre of Royals bloggers. For whatever reason, I see a good deal of fawning over guys like Isbell, Gentry and Wallace while Loftin is treated as kind of an afterthought. Loftin is the 2nd best prospect in the system according to pipeline and fangraphs and 3rd best according to Keith Law. He’s done nothing but produce during his short MLB tenure and during this spring training. I get he’s no superstar and doesn’t have any “loud” tools, but it just feels like he’s oddly overlooked and discounted vis-a-vis other equal or lessor prospects.
I should add Massey to the list of guys who seem to get more attention/love from the bloggers compared to Loftin. Loftin is younger than Gentry, Massey and Isbell as well.
I'd probably argue that point. There's plenty of love for Nick Loftin. Heck, I thought he'd take a step forward and become a top-100 prospect last season. It didn't happen. But I think there are some reasonable concerns with him. He's never put up numbers that even approached what Gentry and Massey have in the minors. His batted ball metrics aren't great (not horrible either) and he's not an especially elite defender. He's a good player. I like him a lot. But I think it's also easy to see potential in him because he hasn't yet failed.
That’s fair and maybe you’ve been higher on him than some of the other writers. I still think most of the professional prospect evaluators have been higher on Loftin than Gentry, Massey and Isbell.
I think Loftin, Gentry and Massey have all been similarly rated. Isbel was never thought *that* highly, but he's also the only one of the four who has an elite trait and that's his defense.
I don’t think Gentry and Massey were ever top three in the system on three different lists at the same time, but I’m too lazy to look it up. Appreciate the back and forth. Love chatting Royals and love the newsletter.
MLB Trade Rumors reporting that Marsh is starter #5, & Lyles is going to the 'pen.
Not just reported on MLB Trade Rumors but put into this article too!
At the beginning of spring i really thought this roster was cut and dry, but apparently not. I actually still kinda like the frazier/hampson/renfroe signings to encourage competition and give some proven, though meh, options if others are struggling. But right now it kinda blows. Oddly the one I like least is the one with the costliest contract - Renfroe.
I was actually thinking of Pratto over Blanco in outfield and giving Velazquez benefit of the doubt. But honestly my memory of who passed my eyetest at what is getting spottier with all the new options. Had been secretly hoping one of the new FA gets a very very slight injury to make room for Loftin, but I will go back to positive thoughts as you are right - the dust will settle as we get farther into the season.
I am right in line with your pitching, hope they keep Sauer, but Long is interesting. Bummed with Singers performance last night after drinking spring koolaid, but if you had predicted this outing last season I would have thought probable. Meanwhile, I am going to keep drinking the sweet sweet koolaid until at least the end of May and hope there are other players I forgot about to fill any potholes
I thought signing Renfroe when they did was a mistake and a misread of the market. Tommy Pham is still out there (though close to signing). Just get him for less and without the player option year.
As for the rest, yeah, it's a long season and guys who deserve to be there generally get to be there at some point.
I am pleased to see enough depth that guys who could be big leaguers are heading down...competition is good and it's a long season... time for some of these guys to feel the heat and either learn to get the job done (toughen up)...or see ya, someone else has taken the job.
I certainly enjoyed your take on the entire roster. Hey, maybe this is the year...