Good Problems are Still Problems

The Royals are about to find themselves in a situation where they have too many players for not enough positions.

In a season that feels like it’s been an almost total disaster, the good news is there are still bright spots, and actually quite a few of them. We’ve seen Daniel Lynch pitch generally well enough to think he’s part of the future. Brady Singer has finally been shown some tough love and looks like he’s maybe come out on the other side looking like a different pitcher who looks like he’s part of the future. Brad Keller has been good too. That’s 60 percent of a rotation and not a single one has even turned 27 yet. There are questions about Keller’s future both with the team and how effective he can be with his profile, but for now, that’s a nice start. And the offense, while it’s been bad, has started to look more competent as young players start to find playing time. But that’s where the good problems lie.

We can bellow for a change at the top, but I don’t think it’s coming anytime especially soon, which means Dayton Moore (and JJ Picollo) is in charge of shaping this roster moving forward. And this is actually a pivotal couple months for the Royals to figure out how they’ll look for the rest of this year and the next few seasons. Injuries have forced the team’s hand a bit, but it’s worked out pretty well for these position players. We knew we’d see a lot of Bobby Witt Jr. this year, but there’s been a lot of success from Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez and Emmanuel Rivera as well. Plus, we can’t forget how good Edward Olivares looked before he got hurt.

So suddenly, you can see a couple of outfielders, a catcher and a left side of a future infield just from players who have succeeded at the big league level this season. So far, no problem. Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are knocking on the door, both probably ready to come to the big leagues and be contributors as well. Let’s say they both come up and look like they deserve a spot to play. That looks pretty good.

C - Melendez
1B - Pratto
3B - Rivera
SS - Witt
OF - Isbel
OF - Olivares
DH - Pasquantino

But, uh oh. Where does Salvador Perez play? You remember the guy who is owed $64 million over the next three years, plus what’s left of his $18 million this year and led all of baseball in home runs last year. Oh and there’s Andrew Benintendi. And Michael A. Taylor. They both won Gold Gloves and Benintendi has been the Royals best hitter, at least for average this season. Taylor has actually been competent offensively. And there’s Whit Merrifield, the team’s best player from the last half-decade or so. And Nicky Lopez, the guy who plays great defense in the middle infield and posted a .365 OBP as recently as last year. And don’t forget Hunter Dozier, who so many people can’t stand, but he’s putting up solid numbers this year too.

If the CBA was still open, the Royals could lobby for a softball style short outfielder and help solve some of this, but they’re going to have to make some very tough decisions and quickly. Some are easier than others, but some will take a level of risk taking that we haven’t seen a lot of from this front office in quite some time. Let’s start off slow.

The Easy Moves

Trading Benintendi

It’s hard to imagine what this offense would look like without Benintendi near the top of the lineup. He’s not hitting for power, but he’s getting on base a ton and hitting for a high average. And he’s doing it while playing a solid left field once again this year. But as it stands right now, he has about four months left with the Royals. If they were to give him an extension like I’ve talked about in the past, something like three or four years at a reasonable amount, I’d be fine with that. But it’s hard to see him taking that right now with how he’s started the season and the dearth of free agent outfielders available next winter.

And look, if he loves it in Kansas City and by the time free agency rolls around, the guys in his place haven’t been able to prove they can do it, offer the guy a contract. Maybe he takes it, maybe he doesn’t. But I’m not sure that him getting traded changes it much other than the fact that they’d be negotiating against everyone at that time. And my suggestion? Trade him now. Four months is more valuable than two. So they can likely get more for him.

The Brewers are a great fit given that they have a recent history of making a big trade in May. Last year, they got Willy Adames from the Rays on May 21 and he was huge for them down the stretch. They could really use an outfield bat if they feel comfortable with either Christian Yelich or Hunter Renfore in center field. Or maybe they feel comfortable with Benintendi there. I don’t know. But they’re a championship contender and Benintendi’s bat would look nice in their lineup. They’re not the only team who could use him. By my count, the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres and Cardinals all seem like a fit. There are probably more teams too.

I don’t know what the return would be. Last year, the Giants got a rental outfielder in Kris Bryant for a prospect in the back half of their top-10 and then a vaguely interesting prospect. The Braves got Adam Duvall for a backup catcher. They also got Eddie Rosario for a guy Cleveland immediately released. Oh and they also got Jorge Soler for a minor league flyer arm. Maybe a better comparison is Kyle Schwarber? The Red Sox got him for Aldo Ramirez, who…I honestly know nothing about him. Oh, this is a good one. Starling Marte brought back Jesus Luzardo. The point is the return isn’t great at the deadline, but it can be useful. But maybe it gets a lot better in late May/early June.

Trade/DFA Carlos Santana

He’s hit better, yes, with a .350/.381/.600 line during his current five-game hitting streak. But even if that was his season line, there’s no place on a 14-28 team for a 36-year old first baseman when three of the team’s top prospects need him out of the way in order to play. It doesn’t matter how they do it, but Santana shouldn’t be a part of the roster. I’m fine with seeing if he can stay relatively hot and they can make a move for him, but I’d put a clock of mid-June at the latest to get it done and either trade or DFA at that time.

Move On From Ryan O’Hearn

He’s done a great job pinch hitting this year, but O’Hearn isn’t worthy of a roster spot, plain and simple. Since bursting onto the scene in 2018, he’s hit .203/.277/.351 in 801 plate appearances. All the thoughts about Santana extend to O’Hearn. There’s just no place for him.

The Medium Difficulty Moves

What About Michael A. Taylor?

You might look at this question and think, ‘uh yeah, what about him? who cares?’ And I get that! But also, he’s a legitimately excellent defensive center fielder in a ballpark that, like it or not, needs a very good defensive center fielder. I think the Royals significantly overstate it, just like they significantly overstate first base defense, but there’s a middle ground between what a lot of people believe to be true at both positions and what the Royals preach.

The reason Taylor is different than Benintendi is for two reasons. One, he’s under contract for 2023 as well and at a very reasonable number of $4.5 million. And two, the Royals don’t have a center fielder ready to go. Isbel has been playing there with Taylor and while he’s not an elite runner, he’s been getting elite jumps. So maybe he can stick there. If he can, that actually helps quite a bit moving forward, but I think the Royals have their doubts about it over a full season and I do too. They do have Nick Loftin in AA who has moved to center and we’re seeing Dairon Blanco in the big leagues now, so potentially those are two guys who could do it, though I wouldn’t count on Blanco being a starter.

So how do you handle Taylor? Is he a fourth outfielder who plays a lot against lefties? He hasn’t been very good against them this year, but he’s been better against them throughout his career. He’s actually been fine offensively this year, showing off increased patience and making a lot more contact to reduce the strikeouts. My thought is you trade him. Between Isbel and Olivares along with Blanco, Loftin, John Rave, etc., you have center field covered if needed. I feel like the Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies and maybe the Padres could all use a defensive-minded center fielder.

I don’t know what he brings back, and if you hate the return, there are worse things than having him on your bench to use late in games on defense and as a pinch runner. Plus, he does have that occasional power that you never know when it’ll appear and he hits a bomb in a big spot against a lefty reliever.

Whit Merrifield vs. Nicky Lopez vs. Hunter Dozier

One has basically been the best player on the team since 2018 while another was the best player on the team in 2021. The third was terrible in 2021, but has been good this year and is a .248/.322/.452 hitter since the start of 2019. Merrifield has heated up to bring his numbers up to where they are while Lopez has cooled down to drop them to where they are. Both have a lower OPS than Santana, who people think should hit 43rd. Dozier hasn’t been the best hitter in the Royals lineup, but he’s one of the few sources of right-handed power. I have a hard time seeing how they all fit in the lineup at the same time once this prospect promotion train truly gets moving.

If you believe in Rivera (and even if you don’t…I’ll get to this in the hard decisions), your infield has at least two first basemen, a third baseman, a shortstop and two second basemen. Again, the rulebook isn’t open for change at this point, so they have to figure something out. Merrifield and Lopez have been handling right field and second base respectively for a few games now, but if Dozier has to be displaced, he goes to right field, which isn’t ideal at all for the defense. This is starting to bleed into one of the hard decisions, but even if he stays at first base/DH, you’re likely to see Pratto in the outfield if he’s with the team.

Let’s leave this at Merrifield vs. Lopez for the moment since one of them can and will play second in this scenario. I’m a little surprised to be saying this given what Lopez did last season and the steady decline from Merrifield, but I think I’d keep Merrifield in there and use Lopez off the bench as a utility guy. You need a backup shortstop anyway, so he’s got a roster spot (for now). This gets even tougher once we get closer to Maikel Garcia or Michael Massey time, but for the moment, there’s a spot for one of them in the lineup and one on the bench.

As for Dozier, boy, I don’t know. It’s tough. He’s owed about $21.3 million through 2024. Which honestly isn’t that much, but it’s also not nothing. He feels like an A’s type player who will hit 30 homers for them once he’s moved. The Rangers could use a solid bat to add to what they added in the offseason. Maybe the Red Sox think he could play pepper with the monster?

I think there’s a small market for him without a huge return, but should the Royals sell high? Maybe. Of course, look at the bats they’ve got on the way. Pratto is a lefty. Pasquantino is a lefty. Melendez is a lefty. Isbel is a lefty. Would they like to have a righty in that mix to go with Perez and Witt and Olivares? It’s an tough question. I think a lot of people would scream to trade the guy and I’m not going to go through this again in detail, but Dozier had a bad first half of 2021. Outside of that, he was good in 2019, fine in 2020, solid in the second half last year and has been solid in 2022. I’m a Dozier fan, as you all should know, but I think I’d shop him.

The Hard Moves

Do They Change Positions?

Pasquantino is a first baseman or a designated hitter. That much is clear. Witt is a shortstop or a third baseman. Isbel and Olivares are outfielders. Rivera is a third baseman or maybe a first baseman. Perez is a catcher. Pratto has been playing an awful lot of outfield in Omaha lately. Melendez was starting to get time there and has played some third base. And there’s your opportunity to maybe make it all work long-term.

But it’s also an idea with downfalls. Melendez is a solid defensive catcher with a great arm and Perez is 32 without the cleanest injury rap sheet. Sure they can just go with a traditional backup catcher like Cam Gallagher or Sebastian Rivero and let Melendez play elsewhere and suit up behind the plate 20-30 times per year, but I think that wastes some of his value. His bat has value anywhere, but I don’t know, I just don’t love that. I think it’s important to maximize the investment in Perez to keep him out from the behind the plate more and a roughly 50/50 split makes sense. But again, this causes a problem with your DH spot because while Melendez may be able to play elsewhere, Perez can’t and he’s going to DH if he’s not catching.

If you believe in Rivera, this gets tough. He’s shown power and an ability to avoid big strikeout numbers. But he also doesn’t walk and his defense has just been fine by the eye test and mixed by the numbers (1 DRS, -2 OAA). Is there a world where Melendez catches 80 games, plays third 40 times and DHs another 25-40 times? I think so. That gives Rivera some time at third, especially against lefties where he’s hit better. It gives the Royals another righty bat that they could lose if they move Dozier. That makes some sense. But they lose the DH for someone most of the season.

So then, do you feel comfortable also moving Nick Pratto to the outfield in the games where Pasquantino needs to play first, which, again, is most of the games? Pratto is an excellent defensive first baseman. Pasquantino isn’t a butcher, but he’s not Pratto. But if Pratto can handle left or right and Isbel and/or Olivares can handle center with the other in the other corner, maybe this works. But then I go back to the big outfield at Kauffman Stadium and how it really does help to have a great defender or two out there and I’m not sure they’d have even one in this alignment. Credit where credit is due to Olivares, he’s gotten better, but I wouldn’t say I trust him to be good yet.

Similar to moving Witt off shortstop, I have a tough time with moving a guy like Pratto off first base. But with Melendez and Perez taking up the DH spot a lot, I don’t know how you don’t move one of them off that position and Pratto is the one who is capable of it. Oof. That’s tough.

Or Do They Change Teams?

And this is where it gets especially interesting. Let’s say you believe in Lynch and Singer and the Royals decide to roll the dice and give Keller something like four years and $56 million (the number is irrelevant). So you think you’ve got three out of five starters needed and feel good about your offense and think you can build a bullpen (which I still believe is true with the talent they have). Maybe you take this potential lineup logjam and you move a guy for a proven starter.

If Pratto headlines a package that brings back Pablo Lopez, can you turn that down? If Pasquantino brings back something similar, can you turn that down? I’m bad at predicting trades or even thinking of possibilities there, but the Royals have to look at their situation and wonder if that would be the smarter move. They’ve done it before, though with less of a logjam, when they moved Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis. I thought they’d be moving some of their pitching for bats, but the offensive development changes have paid off enough to the point that they don’t seem to have a real need for bats right now (though it’d be nice to get them up to find out what they do and don’t need).

I think the success of Melendez in the big leagues to start his career makes it tougher to move him from the Royals side and easier to sell him to other teams because he’s shown he can actually do it. But boy do you wonder what the Yankees would give up for him. They don’t need a catcher necessarily because they’re getting solid defensive play and enough offense, but to add a lefty bat like his in that stadium in a position where they don’t have a long-term answer right now could bring back something huge. That’s a tough call, but I think you’d have to at least listen. I’m not even sure what the return would be, but what if they offer Luis Severino and Ken Waldichuk? I don’t think they would, but that’d be pretty tempting. The names don’t matter. The point is that they should be willing to be creative, even if it makes people angry for a bit.

I think they could also look to move any of Rivera, Isbel or Olivares, but none of those three are bringing back a ton. Maybe something like Alec Marsh and one of those could bring back a four or five starter, but I’m not sure I’d do that at this point. I still love Marsh and think that’d be selling low. But they at least need to think about moving one of these big pieces for another team’s big piece that fits a little bit better.

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If this seems like it gets kind of convoluted, it’s because it does. Every time you come up with one answer, it leads to another question. Of course, nothing ever works out perfectly. It looks like they have too many players that don’t fit well at this particular moment. But injuries happen. Struggles happen. It’s easy to see a world where we can look back at this in even a few months and wonder why I even took the time to write all of this. But it’s not going to get easier and that’s a testament to how the organization has turned around its offensive development. I mentioned Garcia and Massey and Loftin, but there are others too who could be knocking on the door soon enough.

The point is not to say they should do this or should do that. I wanted to interject what I’d do, sure, but to show that there is work to be done by this front office to make it all work. And while I don’t want to go on a long diatribe about their performance as a group because I’m honestly just sick of it, I have my doubts they’re up to the challenge, which is a concern. I guess we’ll see how it goes, but they have their work cut out for them. It’s a good problem. But it’s still a problem that will require a solution.