Great column, David. You're right, it got convoluted, but that is the current reality. I am generally trade-averse, as I hate to give up pieces of value. Truth is truth, though, and you give to get. I see two possible scenarios here, but it all starts with one premise; prospects that are or near major league-ready need to be in KC now. Do what you need to make that happen, starting with dumping Santana, O'Hearn and maybe Taylor. Whit, Salvy, Lopez and Dozier get more days off while the kids play, and WE SEE WHAT WE HAVE. That's the key. At that point, one of two things happens. Either it works itself out for now, or we find out where we have surplus to trade from. Works itself out example: Pratto slumps and heads back to Omaha, Vinnie shines and moves in at first, Salvy gets hurt and MJ prospers at catcher, etc. Sometimes it really does work itself out. However, the flip is that the youngsters all appear ready, and we have too many players for most positions. That's when you start exploring trades...after you know what you have. Will it hurt to trade an MJ or Pratto? Sure, but we'll just have to get excited about the return, and hopefully a better future. But it starts with taking out the garbage and letting the kids play. Just my humble opinion.
That's why I think it's so important to see what they have as soon as they can because the reality is that it doesn't get easier. And that's a good thing because they're producing potential impact bats finally, but it doesn't mean it's not tough. My biggest concern is they need to get it right. It isn't enough to just trade, say, Pratto for a big-time arm. They need to make sure if they trade Pratto that they're sure Vinnie can produce. Every time I finally get one area folded up nicely in my head, another one gets all messed up. Like I said, good problem, but a problem.
That was incredibly positive David! I guess my take on this problem is a little different but I’m looking at it from a different angle. That’s from the angle that this is not a good team. Therefore you play your young kids and move on from the older guys. Benentendi is not making a difference on this team. Trade him. Dozer, same. DFA Santana and Ohearn. You have no choice but to move on sell this as going young. You have a chance to change the narrative and your best players right (Benentendi, Dozier, Barlow) most likely aren’t going to be on the next good Royals team. The most frustrating part to me is they have some good things going. I can see actual talent that hasn’t been there in years and I would argue that the pieces are better than the sum of the whole right now. But what does it matter if the sum of the whole sucks? I don’t need you to be the Rays or the A’s….but you need to be more than what you’ve been from a moving pieces standpoint. I’m afraid they overvalue “there” guys so much….which isn’t necessarily bad I guess but it keeps you from doing what is needed until it is too late. Keller is an interesting one. Probably should try to sign him. The solution seems so simple, and for all the good will that has been lost, I honestly think people would be onboard with it and as a front office you buy yourself more time. I just don’t understand how I can see the plan forward but they refuse to do it. I don’t get it.
I don't think the need to play the younger guys is a different angle at all. That's what I'd do. But I also wanted to look at it from the Royals perspective, which is that they're going to play Dozier. They're going to play Whit. It's just the reality of the situation. So they need to find a way to make this all work.
The pitching side is a different animal entirely and the Keller question comes down to the faith they have in their system. I'm not sure they should have much, but also it's interesting how much better Brady Singer looks now and how much better Jackson Kowar is looking in AAA with some big adjustments. If you fix the problem at the big league level with someone who is even remotely competent, maybe the system has enough in it that you can deal Keller and not be constantly looking for three or four starters every year. Right now, if you feel like you have Lynch, Singer and Keller and that's it, you kind of have to sign Keller long-term. But if you like the changes in Kowar and Kris Bubic can figure it out (don't forget he was a legitimately fine back-of-the-rotation starter the last two years), then you can go out and sign a veteran or trade for one and then have some additional depth with some other arms. It's just a question first of their faith in the organizational arms and then ultimately if their faith is misplaced.
I guess my angle was the sum of the whole sucks. The prospects coming up are just prospects yet. We think they will be good but we don’t know. You need to change because you suck not necessarily where guys are going to play if that makes sense.
If Moore said we needed to move Benentendi because we need to change it up and not even mention the guys they can move in behind him. I’d take that. LOL
Sure, we don't know yet what any of these guys can do, but they absolutely need to find out. It's crazy to think about, but there's a world where you can see a legitimately good offense out of this team soon. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but no way to know until they get a shot and the point here is that even getting them the shot is a little complicated so they might have to be right on someone they trade to carve out some extra room.
Great column, David. They definitely have too many promising prospects and good players, which is why Santana and Ohearn need to be gone yesterday. The kids need to all be playing now. They got what they can do at the major league level. Some trades are going to be necessary. I have my personal favorite players, but my opinion doesn't matter. The last thing I will say is, the fact that they should have traded Whit is much clearer now. I hope they make the right decisions.
I’m a fan that’s guilty of this too…..but for a team that is 14-28 do we really have too many good players? We have promising players that could be good players….we do have that. But I’d say we have too many average players and continue to play too many bad players.
As far as Nicky goes, I think more and more like last year's .365 OBP and high BABIP looks like outliers, compared to, now, parts of three other seasons. Making him a UTIL is a great call.
This was my concern with him when I wrote about it during the offseason. The underlying numbers weren't all that different other than batted ball direction. But I think he's a great guy to have to play middle infield, especially when the other guy to play second can handle the outfield and the other guy to play shortstop can handle third base.
Most definitely. The roster construction issue comes when you have multiple guys that are suitable for being like him, but in other roles (i.e., Doz at 1B/3B, Mondesi, etc.)
Exactly - position versatility is good - but entire roster versatility is another. It's kind of like our entire team as Joel was pointing out. While it looks like we have quality pieces - the unit as a whole stinks. We are a jack of all positions team but can't master how to get a few Ws.
It's a tough nut to crack and the Royals seem to mostly be refusing to try. I'm well acquainted with that strategy personally and I have to tell you it doesn't usually work itself out.
Nice thought, but he's out for the year and was miserable before he left, hasn't played mover than 102 games in a year if I recall correctly. IMO you couldn't get a bowl of cold grits for him right now.
I didn’t mention him because he’s essentially irrelevant to this team now. He’s out for the year and just one year from free agency. They could add him to a trade but it won’t improve the return enough to matter.
For this exercise I think EVERYONE, except Royals management of course, gets the point - it's better to lose with the youngins' and see what we got that lose with the oldies b/c we already know what we have - a terrible baseball team.
Which brings to me to a question I've been pondering for a few weeks now and I'm interested to get your take - Is Vinnie still down b/c we are manipulating service time??? And, under the new CBA (if it changed at all), when could he come up and us not lose a year of control?
I know Royals management is historically dreadful, but even they have to see that there is NO other reason to give up two outs, back-to-back no less, and keep Carlos and ROH in the lineup day in and day out... It has probably cost us 5 W's this year.
Now back to your exercise: I think you start with the 'untouchables' (I'm gonna do this based upon what I think Royals management thinks, not what I think b/c I'm not the GM and they aren't listening to me or you or anyone on this thread or all the kids would be up already lol).
So that is Perez, Jr., Melendez, Whit, Dozier and probably MAT (I'm in favor of keeping for the reasons you suggested). With that you slot them in and the rest are expendable. The definite trade guys are AB, Olivares (hopefully he's back soon and hot again and they don't like him anyway for the defensive reasons you mentioned), Gallagher (who I believe has some value). If Perez is healthy so he's playing so b/t him and Melendez you have C and DH and 3b. Pratto, Isbel, MAT and Olivares (if not traded) are the outfield with Vinnie, Whit, Jr and the aforementioned 3b lineup above.
As for the arms, with Greinke it is deja vu all over again - he's gonna want to be moved to a winner if it's available and we will accommodate. So you take the trade pieces above to find a PROVEN starter and re sign Keller. That gives you 4 starters (with the three you mentioned above) and you find a 5th somewhere along the line. You also probably pick up a few other Minor League kids to attempt to backfill what we're bringing up and what injuries (thank God) have forced us to bring up.
I appreciate the hard work Lesky, along with all the thoughtful comments of the readers on here. It's been a miserable season and nearly impossible to watch. I haven't watched a game since last week and just dread checking the results in the morning b/c as long as ROH and Santana have a job with the Royals, along with the guy filling out the lineup card that includes them, along with the guy who hired the guy filling out the lineup card - it is damn hard to sacrifice time away from my family to justify watching this train wreck. Very hard indeed.
And this brings me to my next two questions for you - how bad does it have to get for Sherman to make a change? And, can it get so bad that he would make it in-season? If the answer to the last question is yes - then I hope we lose out until it happens b/c this is like is simply not worth watching and I don't think it will change until DM, MM, CE are gone.
I’m on my phone now and want to give this full comment the attention it deserves so I’ll come back for more, but just to answer one thing quickly, the time to get an extra year is long past. And also, you don’t manipulate service time on a 24-year old 1B/DH anyway.
Agreed on the 24 yo 1B/DH but I wouldn't but anything past DM lol. And, it occurred to me b/c about the time DM said he needed to be more 'transactional' I thought he also said something about "staggering" the talent when we bring them up - with the idea that we have lots of talent in the Minors and when we bring them up we wouldn't want them all to hit FA at the same time. I may be dreaming that but I'm pretty sure I read something like that somewhere.
The one thing you should ALWAYS put past DM is gaming service time. He’s literally never done that. He did mention that, but the way around it is to get your young guys extended if they deserve it.
Okay, back at my computer. I'm not 100% sure you're right about Greinke, though I don't know that you're wrong either. I feel like he had other places to sign and still chose the Royals. Does he want to win a championship? Sure. Is it his primary goal now? I don't know. I'm not sure how you sign with the Royals on a one-year deal if winning a title is your primary goal. I have a hunch he likes working with young starters and is enjoying that. But also, he's never won a title. But regardless, he's not a part of any future rotation other than maybe next season if he wants another go at it, so you're in the same spot looking for someone to fill in that fourth and fifth spot IF you keep Keller around.
To answer your Sherman question, and this is the one I really wanted to type on a computer and not my phone, I don't know. Everything I'd heard about him before was that he's pretty savvy in terms of baseball, but also knows enough that he knows he doesn't need to get involved in the day to day and meddle like some owners do. That said, he's also a pretty successful businessman. If he's running the Royals as he did his businesses in terms of personnel, I think he's wanting to make a very real evaluation of every aspect of the organization and he was sort of robbed of that chance in 2020 because there's just no way to evaluate much of anything in that season. So we fast forward to last year and the minor league system is making these huge improvements, led largely by JJ, and I think he (correctly) knew that JJ was going to be gone if he wasn't made GM in KC.
So that's when the promotions happened. Dayton went to team president and JJ to GM. I think I wrote here (and many others too) that I was skeptical it would be a huge change in the way things were run, but I was hopeful. It doesn't feel like there's been much different. The one thing that gives me some hope is the Terry Bradshaw firing, which Dayton all but admitted he wouldn't have done. That means JJ made that choice. I think the success of the offense, which has been better but could be a small sample size blip and have nothing to do with the coaching of course, could actually be huge for changes actually happening.
Timing-wise, I don't know what that looks like, but I still cannot get Dayton's words last Monday out of my had and the sheer derisiveness of how he said them. He was so defensive about his pitching coach and then for the team to do what they've done since makes him look especially poor. So while I think that Sherman has his eyes on the downtown stadium prize first and foremost, he also understands two things. The stadium won't matter much if the team is floundering like they have been and Dayton with that tone followed by these results makes everyone look bad and, frankly, a little dumb. Nobody wants to look bad or dumb.
I can't imagine a major move is made during the season. There may be another sacrificial lamb of Cal Eldred going, but if Dayton is the one making that call, it's not going to be for a bit. Because that goes back to looking bad and a little dumb to defend the guy a week and a half ago and then dump him. I continue to look at the fact that they didn't extend Matheny. They exercised his option. That's a message even if it's unintended. If they believed in him wholeheartedly, he'd have gotten three years. Instead, they took away his lame duck status. I don't think this team is going to go 54-108, which is their current pace, but if they're something like 68-94, I think Matheny is done after the season and for the first time in a long time, I think there's a non-zero chance Dayton is too.
Well thank you for both responses. However, I'm not sure which is more disappointing.
IF there was at least the possibility (insert Jim Carey GIF) that DM was trying to game service time, THEN there would be the possibility that there was some logic being applied to the ridiculous allegiance to Santana and ROH. I mean, can you imagine the delight of opposing pitchers and Managers when they read their names on our lineup card - if there is a bigger laughingstock move in MLB, I want to know what it is so that I can laugh along.
The second response - that you can't imagine a major move made during the season, while I think you're probably right, is terribly disappointing too. I do understand you saying that Sherman has had since 20' to evaluate and so not much time, however, DM has been around since 06'. So there's 15.5 years of evaluation material. And, as you pointed out, it doesn't look like much has changed since he bumped up an office in the Ivory Tower. The best indication of future behavior is past behavior and the Royals franchise under current management is the BEST example of that that I know of.
IMO - there's no risk to an in-season change, in fact, it's the type of opportunity that successful people seek out - one where there is nothing to lose and everything to gain. We're on pace for 108 losses - so you make a move and we lose 110? 115? Who cares? Who would say, well if we'd kept MM and DM, we would've only lost 108??? LOL.
It sounds like Piccolo may be an in-house candidate, or find someone from without. But after over 15 years of baseball with three winning seasons, the information is out there. It's time to make a move. The worst decision is still no decision.
I do appreciate the thoughtful responses and appreciate you and this newsletter at least giving us something to talk about with this team.
I understand the rationale behind Santana even if I don't agree with it. He was playing hurt and I think it's worth at least seeing what he looks like healthy. It's been terrible and he's already gotten hurt again, so it's time to move on. I've never understood the O'Hearn rationale other than that Matheny thinks he's a swell guy.
It is disappointing that they won't make an in-season move, but I think it's at least worth noting that while all of this is happening at the big league level, the minor leaguers are working with a much more advanced development approach and that was brought in largely because of Sherman. I'm not saying it's a good reason to see it through, but as I've written before, I understand the reasoning. There's no reason not to make a few moves and maybe they will. It's still just May 26th. But there's at least an argument to seeing what the team looks like when it is the players talked about above and a few more of the pitching prospects with them supplemented with veterans. Do I have faith in DM & Co to get right? Absolutely not, but the argument is at least there that this farm system has been built up again and looks like it might be about to churn out some dudes and to see how that goes. Again, I wouldn't do it, but I get the idea behind it.
Feels like we could be looking at a Wil Myers situation between Pratto and Pasquantino. Just how he was held in the minors for longer than felt appropriate and then was packaged as part of a major trade. Not sure which one of those guys the Royals keep, but it's hard not to feel like the promotion is long overdue and this would be a rational explanation.
There's also a ton of pitching talent beyond Kowar, Bubic and Hernandez on its way up that could be ready between now and the end of the year with Marsh, Parrish, Zerpa, Lacy (if he could ever stay healthy), and Bowlan(ish). I don't recall the Royals dealing with this much potential major-league ready talent at once. I was much more optimistic about their ability to navigate it all it during the offseason than I am now.
It's all so interesting to follow. Fans just need to hurry up and wait I guess.
I wouldn't say it's a Myers situation just yet. Even though this season feels like it's almost over, it's only May 26th. But I think it might even be smart to move one of them. Maybe packaging Pratto with, say Keller, brings back something big. You're right about the rest of the pitchers, but they could honestly have 75 prospects knocking on the door and I'd assume it wasn't enough as long as they have their current staff in place.
IF they packaged Pratto and Keller and got something back worth talking about I’d be jumping on the moon. THAT would be conviction. I just get the impression this management team is so worried about being wrong with any decision…..that they ultimately do the wrong thing because they don’t do anything….if that makes sense.
So, I know they are taking some heat on other people succeeding elsewhere. I’m going to defend Eldred here for a minute….or even DM. The problem isn’t that Junis, or Lopez, or Singer after going to AAA, or Adam even are succeeding elsewhere after moving on from the Royals. That’s not the issue even though its being brought up lately. It’s that you don’t have success stories with the group you currently have. EVERY team has people that move on and succeed other places. That’s part of the process. You shouldn’t be afraid of that being the case. If you’ve done all you can do with a guy….and it doesn’t work out but it clicks somewhere else that’s fine. Singer wasn’t changing until a career defining moment, I honestly don’t think Junis was changing…the royals say they wanted him to do x,y,z….they shipped him to AAA wasn’t listening. I don’t think that’s a knock at all on the royals. But on the flip side…you need people in place that can connect with other people you bring in. THAT is the part that isn’t happening.
Maybe Joel Payamps….as far as a guy they’ve brought in here with Eldred that has clicked and gotten better since being here that was a guy that had been around the block a time or two already. That’s literally all I can think of. Brentz had success early…but he was pretty bad last half of last year and then to start this one.
Keller was a rule 5 guy. The Diamondbacks have needed pitching for awhile. I think he qualifies. Barlow was a free agent the Dodgers let go. Payamps is a good one. They've got them, not so much offensively, but they've got some guys.
I think you alluded to it in your last sentence there Joel.
Coaching is almost always a "are they buying what you're selling proposition". So, if players move on, make an adjustment and then find success then with the Royals we either didn't 1 - identify the necessary adjustment or 2 - couldn't get them to buy into the change that they made with the new team. Interpretation - they (being other teams) have Coaches who are getting the SAME EXACT player and identifying something our Coaches didn't OR they are identifying the same thing BUT they are able to get that same player to buy the same thing we were trying to sell them. Whether the case be #1 or #2 we don't have the right Coaches.
Really good column breaking it all down. As to the decisions--oof, it is tough.
Let's start with what I feel we know for sure: Witt at SS, Melendez is the catcher of the present and future, Santana should be DFA's now to make room for youngsters, O'Hearn should go, we should pray that Merrifield gets hot for the next few weeks and we can get something for him by trade because the water is running out of the tub fast on his usefulness as a player.
I feel good but slightly less certain about these: Beni should be traded (he will never again be as good as he is now and so will bring max return, and he just doesn't have enough pop to justify him playing every day, long term, in RF); keep Taylor as a late inning def replacement/pinch runner and as a competent fill in if another outfielder gets injured.
Keller is maybe the toughest call, but I feel he should be traded. I just don't think he will improve or even maintain this level over the next 5 years.
I've become a Dozier believer. Let him DH most of the time, play once a week at first.
Concerns: I have a sinking feeling that last season was a one time, not to be repeated renaissance for Salvy, and that the sun is sinking fast on him both as a catcher and hitter. I really hope I'm wrong, because I love the guy like no other Royal of the past 20 years. But I've got a bad feeling about this.
Ditto Nicky Lopez. My sneaking suspicion is that last year was the best year he will ever have. Could still have a long, useful career as a utility infielder/late inning defensive replacement, however.
Great column, David. You're right, it got convoluted, but that is the current reality. I am generally trade-averse, as I hate to give up pieces of value. Truth is truth, though, and you give to get. I see two possible scenarios here, but it all starts with one premise; prospects that are or near major league-ready need to be in KC now. Do what you need to make that happen, starting with dumping Santana, O'Hearn and maybe Taylor. Whit, Salvy, Lopez and Dozier get more days off while the kids play, and WE SEE WHAT WE HAVE. That's the key. At that point, one of two things happens. Either it works itself out for now, or we find out where we have surplus to trade from. Works itself out example: Pratto slumps and heads back to Omaha, Vinnie shines and moves in at first, Salvy gets hurt and MJ prospers at catcher, etc. Sometimes it really does work itself out. However, the flip is that the youngsters all appear ready, and we have too many players for most positions. That's when you start exploring trades...after you know what you have. Will it hurt to trade an MJ or Pratto? Sure, but we'll just have to get excited about the return, and hopefully a better future. But it starts with taking out the garbage and letting the kids play. Just my humble opinion.
That's why I think it's so important to see what they have as soon as they can because the reality is that it doesn't get easier. And that's a good thing because they're producing potential impact bats finally, but it doesn't mean it's not tough. My biggest concern is they need to get it right. It isn't enough to just trade, say, Pratto for a big-time arm. They need to make sure if they trade Pratto that they're sure Vinnie can produce. Every time I finally get one area folded up nicely in my head, another one gets all messed up. Like I said, good problem, but a problem.
That was incredibly positive David! I guess my take on this problem is a little different but I’m looking at it from a different angle. That’s from the angle that this is not a good team. Therefore you play your young kids and move on from the older guys. Benentendi is not making a difference on this team. Trade him. Dozer, same. DFA Santana and Ohearn. You have no choice but to move on sell this as going young. You have a chance to change the narrative and your best players right (Benentendi, Dozier, Barlow) most likely aren’t going to be on the next good Royals team. The most frustrating part to me is they have some good things going. I can see actual talent that hasn’t been there in years and I would argue that the pieces are better than the sum of the whole right now. But what does it matter if the sum of the whole sucks? I don’t need you to be the Rays or the A’s….but you need to be more than what you’ve been from a moving pieces standpoint. I’m afraid they overvalue “there” guys so much….which isn’t necessarily bad I guess but it keeps you from doing what is needed until it is too late. Keller is an interesting one. Probably should try to sign him. The solution seems so simple, and for all the good will that has been lost, I honestly think people would be onboard with it and as a front office you buy yourself more time. I just don’t understand how I can see the plan forward but they refuse to do it. I don’t get it.
I don't think the need to play the younger guys is a different angle at all. That's what I'd do. But I also wanted to look at it from the Royals perspective, which is that they're going to play Dozier. They're going to play Whit. It's just the reality of the situation. So they need to find a way to make this all work.
The pitching side is a different animal entirely and the Keller question comes down to the faith they have in their system. I'm not sure they should have much, but also it's interesting how much better Brady Singer looks now and how much better Jackson Kowar is looking in AAA with some big adjustments. If you fix the problem at the big league level with someone who is even remotely competent, maybe the system has enough in it that you can deal Keller and not be constantly looking for three or four starters every year. Right now, if you feel like you have Lynch, Singer and Keller and that's it, you kind of have to sign Keller long-term. But if you like the changes in Kowar and Kris Bubic can figure it out (don't forget he was a legitimately fine back-of-the-rotation starter the last two years), then you can go out and sign a veteran or trade for one and then have some additional depth with some other arms. It's just a question first of their faith in the organizational arms and then ultimately if their faith is misplaced.
I guess my angle was the sum of the whole sucks. The prospects coming up are just prospects yet. We think they will be good but we don’t know. You need to change because you suck not necessarily where guys are going to play if that makes sense.
If Moore said we needed to move Benentendi because we need to change it up and not even mention the guys they can move in behind him. I’d take that. LOL
Sure, we don't know yet what any of these guys can do, but they absolutely need to find out. It's crazy to think about, but there's a world where you can see a legitimately good offense out of this team soon. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but no way to know until they get a shot and the point here is that even getting them the shot is a little complicated so they might have to be right on someone they trade to carve out some extra room.
Great column, David. They definitely have too many promising prospects and good players, which is why Santana and Ohearn need to be gone yesterday. The kids need to all be playing now. They got what they can do at the major league level. Some trades are going to be necessary. I have my personal favorite players, but my opinion doesn't matter. The last thing I will say is, the fact that they should have traded Whit is much clearer now. I hope they make the right decisions.
I’m a fan that’s guilty of this too…..but for a team that is 14-28 do we really have too many good players? We have promising players that could be good players….we do have that. But I’d say we have too many average players and continue to play too many bad players.
I think the wording of "promising prospects" was the right way to put it. We don't know what any of them will do, but they're definitely promising.
Oh they absolutely should have traded Whit. It was clear then, clearer now for sure.
As far as Nicky goes, I think more and more like last year's .365 OBP and high BABIP looks like outliers, compared to, now, parts of three other seasons. Making him a UTIL is a great call.
This was my concern with him when I wrote about it during the offseason. The underlying numbers weren't all that different other than batted ball direction. But I think he's a great guy to have to play middle infield, especially when the other guy to play second can handle the outfield and the other guy to play shortstop can handle third base.
Most definitely. The roster construction issue comes when you have multiple guys that are suitable for being like him, but in other roles (i.e., Doz at 1B/3B, Mondesi, etc.)
And, of course, good teams have one, *maybe* two guys like that. Don't need a full roster of average swiss army knives.
Exactly - position versatility is good - but entire roster versatility is another. It's kind of like our entire team as Joel was pointing out. While it looks like we have quality pieces - the unit as a whole stinks. We are a jack of all positions team but can't master how to get a few Ws.
It's a tough nut to crack and the Royals seem to mostly be refusing to try. I'm well acquainted with that strategy personally and I have to tell you it doesn't usually work itself out.
Hang on, are you trying to say that closing your eyes and wishing real hard doesn't work?
Nice column. I noticed you didn’t mention Mondesi. Could he be packaged with others on a trade, or put in the outfield?
Nice thought, but he's out for the year and was miserable before he left, hasn't played mover than 102 games in a year if I recall correctly. IMO you couldn't get a bowl of cold grits for him right now.
I didn’t mention him because he’s essentially irrelevant to this team now. He’s out for the year and just one year from free agency. They could add him to a trade but it won’t improve the return enough to matter.
Good stuff and I love the 'new look' home page!
For this exercise I think EVERYONE, except Royals management of course, gets the point - it's better to lose with the youngins' and see what we got that lose with the oldies b/c we already know what we have - a terrible baseball team.
Which brings to me to a question I've been pondering for a few weeks now and I'm interested to get your take - Is Vinnie still down b/c we are manipulating service time??? And, under the new CBA (if it changed at all), when could he come up and us not lose a year of control?
I know Royals management is historically dreadful, but even they have to see that there is NO other reason to give up two outs, back-to-back no less, and keep Carlos and ROH in the lineup day in and day out... It has probably cost us 5 W's this year.
Now back to your exercise: I think you start with the 'untouchables' (I'm gonna do this based upon what I think Royals management thinks, not what I think b/c I'm not the GM and they aren't listening to me or you or anyone on this thread or all the kids would be up already lol).
So that is Perez, Jr., Melendez, Whit, Dozier and probably MAT (I'm in favor of keeping for the reasons you suggested). With that you slot them in and the rest are expendable. The definite trade guys are AB, Olivares (hopefully he's back soon and hot again and they don't like him anyway for the defensive reasons you mentioned), Gallagher (who I believe has some value). If Perez is healthy so he's playing so b/t him and Melendez you have C and DH and 3b. Pratto, Isbel, MAT and Olivares (if not traded) are the outfield with Vinnie, Whit, Jr and the aforementioned 3b lineup above.
As for the arms, with Greinke it is deja vu all over again - he's gonna want to be moved to a winner if it's available and we will accommodate. So you take the trade pieces above to find a PROVEN starter and re sign Keller. That gives you 4 starters (with the three you mentioned above) and you find a 5th somewhere along the line. You also probably pick up a few other Minor League kids to attempt to backfill what we're bringing up and what injuries (thank God) have forced us to bring up.
I appreciate the hard work Lesky, along with all the thoughtful comments of the readers on here. It's been a miserable season and nearly impossible to watch. I haven't watched a game since last week and just dread checking the results in the morning b/c as long as ROH and Santana have a job with the Royals, along with the guy filling out the lineup card that includes them, along with the guy who hired the guy filling out the lineup card - it is damn hard to sacrifice time away from my family to justify watching this train wreck. Very hard indeed.
And this brings me to my next two questions for you - how bad does it have to get for Sherman to make a change? And, can it get so bad that he would make it in-season? If the answer to the last question is yes - then I hope we lose out until it happens b/c this is like is simply not worth watching and I don't think it will change until DM, MM, CE are gone.
I’m on my phone now and want to give this full comment the attention it deserves so I’ll come back for more, but just to answer one thing quickly, the time to get an extra year is long past. And also, you don’t manipulate service time on a 24-year old 1B/DH anyway.
Roger that and appreciate the response.
Agreed on the 24 yo 1B/DH but I wouldn't but anything past DM lol. And, it occurred to me b/c about the time DM said he needed to be more 'transactional' I thought he also said something about "staggering" the talent when we bring them up - with the idea that we have lots of talent in the Minors and when we bring them up we wouldn't want them all to hit FA at the same time. I may be dreaming that but I'm pretty sure I read something like that somewhere.
The one thing you should ALWAYS put past DM is gaming service time. He’s literally never done that. He did mention that, but the way around it is to get your young guys extended if they deserve it.
Okay, back at my computer. I'm not 100% sure you're right about Greinke, though I don't know that you're wrong either. I feel like he had other places to sign and still chose the Royals. Does he want to win a championship? Sure. Is it his primary goal now? I don't know. I'm not sure how you sign with the Royals on a one-year deal if winning a title is your primary goal. I have a hunch he likes working with young starters and is enjoying that. But also, he's never won a title. But regardless, he's not a part of any future rotation other than maybe next season if he wants another go at it, so you're in the same spot looking for someone to fill in that fourth and fifth spot IF you keep Keller around.
To answer your Sherman question, and this is the one I really wanted to type on a computer and not my phone, I don't know. Everything I'd heard about him before was that he's pretty savvy in terms of baseball, but also knows enough that he knows he doesn't need to get involved in the day to day and meddle like some owners do. That said, he's also a pretty successful businessman. If he's running the Royals as he did his businesses in terms of personnel, I think he's wanting to make a very real evaluation of every aspect of the organization and he was sort of robbed of that chance in 2020 because there's just no way to evaluate much of anything in that season. So we fast forward to last year and the minor league system is making these huge improvements, led largely by JJ, and I think he (correctly) knew that JJ was going to be gone if he wasn't made GM in KC.
So that's when the promotions happened. Dayton went to team president and JJ to GM. I think I wrote here (and many others too) that I was skeptical it would be a huge change in the way things were run, but I was hopeful. It doesn't feel like there's been much different. The one thing that gives me some hope is the Terry Bradshaw firing, which Dayton all but admitted he wouldn't have done. That means JJ made that choice. I think the success of the offense, which has been better but could be a small sample size blip and have nothing to do with the coaching of course, could actually be huge for changes actually happening.
Timing-wise, I don't know what that looks like, but I still cannot get Dayton's words last Monday out of my had and the sheer derisiveness of how he said them. He was so defensive about his pitching coach and then for the team to do what they've done since makes him look especially poor. So while I think that Sherman has his eyes on the downtown stadium prize first and foremost, he also understands two things. The stadium won't matter much if the team is floundering like they have been and Dayton with that tone followed by these results makes everyone look bad and, frankly, a little dumb. Nobody wants to look bad or dumb.
I can't imagine a major move is made during the season. There may be another sacrificial lamb of Cal Eldred going, but if Dayton is the one making that call, it's not going to be for a bit. Because that goes back to looking bad and a little dumb to defend the guy a week and a half ago and then dump him. I continue to look at the fact that they didn't extend Matheny. They exercised his option. That's a message even if it's unintended. If they believed in him wholeheartedly, he'd have gotten three years. Instead, they took away his lame duck status. I don't think this team is going to go 54-108, which is their current pace, but if they're something like 68-94, I think Matheny is done after the season and for the first time in a long time, I think there's a non-zero chance Dayton is too.
Well thank you for both responses. However, I'm not sure which is more disappointing.
IF there was at least the possibility (insert Jim Carey GIF) that DM was trying to game service time, THEN there would be the possibility that there was some logic being applied to the ridiculous allegiance to Santana and ROH. I mean, can you imagine the delight of opposing pitchers and Managers when they read their names on our lineup card - if there is a bigger laughingstock move in MLB, I want to know what it is so that I can laugh along.
The second response - that you can't imagine a major move made during the season, while I think you're probably right, is terribly disappointing too. I do understand you saying that Sherman has had since 20' to evaluate and so not much time, however, DM has been around since 06'. So there's 15.5 years of evaluation material. And, as you pointed out, it doesn't look like much has changed since he bumped up an office in the Ivory Tower. The best indication of future behavior is past behavior and the Royals franchise under current management is the BEST example of that that I know of.
IMO - there's no risk to an in-season change, in fact, it's the type of opportunity that successful people seek out - one where there is nothing to lose and everything to gain. We're on pace for 108 losses - so you make a move and we lose 110? 115? Who cares? Who would say, well if we'd kept MM and DM, we would've only lost 108??? LOL.
It sounds like Piccolo may be an in-house candidate, or find someone from without. But after over 15 years of baseball with three winning seasons, the information is out there. It's time to make a move. The worst decision is still no decision.
I do appreciate the thoughtful responses and appreciate you and this newsletter at least giving us something to talk about with this team.
I understand the rationale behind Santana even if I don't agree with it. He was playing hurt and I think it's worth at least seeing what he looks like healthy. It's been terrible and he's already gotten hurt again, so it's time to move on. I've never understood the O'Hearn rationale other than that Matheny thinks he's a swell guy.
It is disappointing that they won't make an in-season move, but I think it's at least worth noting that while all of this is happening at the big league level, the minor leaguers are working with a much more advanced development approach and that was brought in largely because of Sherman. I'm not saying it's a good reason to see it through, but as I've written before, I understand the reasoning. There's no reason not to make a few moves and maybe they will. It's still just May 26th. But there's at least an argument to seeing what the team looks like when it is the players talked about above and a few more of the pitching prospects with them supplemented with veterans. Do I have faith in DM & Co to get right? Absolutely not, but the argument is at least there that this farm system has been built up again and looks like it might be about to churn out some dudes and to see how that goes. Again, I wouldn't do it, but I get the idea behind it.
Feels like we could be looking at a Wil Myers situation between Pratto and Pasquantino. Just how he was held in the minors for longer than felt appropriate and then was packaged as part of a major trade. Not sure which one of those guys the Royals keep, but it's hard not to feel like the promotion is long overdue and this would be a rational explanation.
There's also a ton of pitching talent beyond Kowar, Bubic and Hernandez on its way up that could be ready between now and the end of the year with Marsh, Parrish, Zerpa, Lacy (if he could ever stay healthy), and Bowlan(ish). I don't recall the Royals dealing with this much potential major-league ready talent at once. I was much more optimistic about their ability to navigate it all it during the offseason than I am now.
It's all so interesting to follow. Fans just need to hurry up and wait I guess.
I wouldn't say it's a Myers situation just yet. Even though this season feels like it's almost over, it's only May 26th. But I think it might even be smart to move one of them. Maybe packaging Pratto with, say Keller, brings back something big. You're right about the rest of the pitchers, but they could honestly have 75 prospects knocking on the door and I'd assume it wasn't enough as long as they have their current staff in place.
IF they packaged Pratto and Keller and got something back worth talking about I’d be jumping on the moon. THAT would be conviction. I just get the impression this management team is so worried about being wrong with any decision…..that they ultimately do the wrong thing because they don’t do anything….if that makes sense.
I don't know if they are afraid, but they certainly act as if they're afraid, so yeah, I'm with you.
So, I know they are taking some heat on other people succeeding elsewhere. I’m going to defend Eldred here for a minute….or even DM. The problem isn’t that Junis, or Lopez, or Singer after going to AAA, or Adam even are succeeding elsewhere after moving on from the Royals. That’s not the issue even though its being brought up lately. It’s that you don’t have success stories with the group you currently have. EVERY team has people that move on and succeed other places. That’s part of the process. You shouldn’t be afraid of that being the case. If you’ve done all you can do with a guy….and it doesn’t work out but it clicks somewhere else that’s fine. Singer wasn’t changing until a career defining moment, I honestly don’t think Junis was changing…the royals say they wanted him to do x,y,z….they shipped him to AAA wasn’t listening. I don’t think that’s a knock at all on the royals. But on the flip side…you need people in place that can connect with other people you bring in. THAT is the part that isn’t happening.
Maybe Joel Payamps….as far as a guy they’ve brought in here with Eldred that has clicked and gotten better since being here that was a guy that had been around the block a time or two already. That’s literally all I can think of. Brentz had success early…but he was pretty bad last half of last year and then to start this one.
Keller was a rule 5 guy. The Diamondbacks have needed pitching for awhile. I think he qualifies. Barlow was a free agent the Dodgers let go. Payamps is a good one. They've got them, not so much offensively, but they've got some guys.
I think you alluded to it in your last sentence there Joel.
Coaching is almost always a "are they buying what you're selling proposition". So, if players move on, make an adjustment and then find success then with the Royals we either didn't 1 - identify the necessary adjustment or 2 - couldn't get them to buy into the change that they made with the new team. Interpretation - they (being other teams) have Coaches who are getting the SAME EXACT player and identifying something our Coaches didn't OR they are identifying the same thing BUT they are able to get that same player to buy the same thing we were trying to sell them. Whether the case be #1 or #2 we don't have the right Coaches.
Really good column breaking it all down. As to the decisions--oof, it is tough.
Let's start with what I feel we know for sure: Witt at SS, Melendez is the catcher of the present and future, Santana should be DFA's now to make room for youngsters, O'Hearn should go, we should pray that Merrifield gets hot for the next few weeks and we can get something for him by trade because the water is running out of the tub fast on his usefulness as a player.
I feel good but slightly less certain about these: Beni should be traded (he will never again be as good as he is now and so will bring max return, and he just doesn't have enough pop to justify him playing every day, long term, in RF); keep Taylor as a late inning def replacement/pinch runner and as a competent fill in if another outfielder gets injured.
Keller is maybe the toughest call, but I feel he should be traded. I just don't think he will improve or even maintain this level over the next 5 years.
I've become a Dozier believer. Let him DH most of the time, play once a week at first.
Concerns: I have a sinking feeling that last season was a one time, not to be repeated renaissance for Salvy, and that the sun is sinking fast on him both as a catcher and hitter. I really hope I'm wrong, because I love the guy like no other Royal of the past 20 years. But I've got a bad feeling about this.
Ditto Nicky Lopez. My sneaking suspicion is that last year was the best year he will ever have. Could still have a long, useful career as a utility infielder/late inning defensive replacement, however.