Hello Again, Zack Greinke

The Royals bring back their Cy Young winner, one year after bringing him back the first time 12 years after trading him away.

The Royals entered the offseason likely to sign Zack Greinke to another one-year deal after he had a successful 2022 campaign for them. Calendar pages dramatically flew off as Greinke remained a free agent and the Royals signed others to fill the voids in their rotation. As reports go, when the starting pitching market went nuts, Greinke wanted his piece of the pie. In some ways, I wondered why someone who had made $330 million in his career was so concerned with a couple million dollars. In other ways, I wondered why billionaires in ownership were so worried about a couple million dollars. By the time you read this, you’ll likely know his contract (and I’ll update this when it’s known), but for now my guess is it’s somewhere around $8 million with incentives that can bring it around his 2022 $13 million salary.

But ultimately, as I wrote a few times, a team has decisions to make. Do they spend a little extra on a player they really want even if the cost is more than whatever models you use say he’s worth? I think it’s interesting that there were a lot of comments by many wondering why the Royals weren’t just signing him when no other team jumped on the move either. I know there’s a difference both with history and need and potentially Greinke’s preference, but the fact that they were able to get this done at the end of January means nobody else was willing to meet him where he was looking either. Just something to think about there.

It seems a little odd to look at a pitcher the Royals are signing who everyone is so familiar with, but I wonder a bit what they’re getting with Greinke. There is plenty of good. His 4.6 percent walk rate remains elite. It ranked 13th in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched last season. While he didn’t get that many ground balls, his home run per fly ball rate was excellent at 8.2 percent. And he had a 3.68 ERA, which was very good. I think he gave the Royals basically exactly what they were wanting.

I worry a bit moving forward. In his 137 innings, he gave up 157 hits. Its’ the first time he allowed more hits than innings pitched since 2016 and just the third time in his career (the first was in his disastrous 2005 season). There’s an awful lot of blue on this Baseball Savant percentile rankings image:

The walk rate is, of course, great. His chase rate works, he doesn’t give up a ton of barrels and he has good spin on the fastball. But that’s worrisome. I think it’s fair to look at a 1.91 ERA at home in 66 innings with just one home run allowed compared to a 5.32 ERA in 71 road innings with 13 home runs allowed and be concerned for what could happen, especially with one of the bigger road parks in the division bringing the fences in (Comerica). While the ERA was good, the FIP was just okay at 4.03 and his xERA was bad at 4.78. Is that a sign of things to come or can he continue to outperform that? It isn’t long ago that he was able to strike out a batter per inning during the 2020 season. So what changed?

It’s interesting given how good the pitch looks, but his changeup has become a very slight concern. He only allowed a .053 ISO on it, so that’s great, but he had a whiff rate of 16.7 percent last season. That’s down from 27.6 percent in 2021 and 46.6 percent in 2020. I thnk he introduced his cutter more than ever before last year partially because of that and he used his curve more than the changeup for the first time since 2012 because of that. But the question to me is if he can get the changeup to be as effective as it was even two seasons ago. Shape-wise, it wasn’t all that different. It had similar velocity, similar spin and similar vertical and horizontal movement. And yet, it was hit.

I think one reason is the pitch itself and one reason is the pitches around it. While the shape was basically the same, the location wasn’t quite as crisp on it in 2022. Compare the 2021 heat map…

…with the 2022 one.

It’s not a significant difference and he does a remarkable job of targeting a region of the zone with it, but it is different. He needs to live a little more in that bottom left quadrant to be successful with it. But I think part of the issue is that it just wasn’t set up as well. He threw a slider 15.2 percent of the time in 2021 and allowed a .232 average with a 31 percent whiff rate. In 2022, it was not effective at all. He allowed a .351 average and .579 slugging percentage with a 22.6 percent whiff rate. Now, the expected numbers were actually okay on the slider, but reality wasn’t. I think he used the slider and the changeup in tandem quite well in previous years but just couldn’t do it in 2022.

Can that change? Sure. And if there’s any pitcher I trust to get guys out long past the time his stuff expires, it’s Greinke. I just think there’s a chance this could go south in a hurry and I worry a bit about that. I have a little more confidence in the coaching staff to know the right time to make a move with him in game, though I think Greinke himself is quite in tune with that himself. I feel like I’ve made it seem like I’m totally against bringing him back, and I’m not at all, but I definitely do have some worries over how it might turn out, but I’d rather give him a one-year deal than cave to Michael Wacha on a two-year deal and while the pitching staff is far deeper today than it was even a month ago, I think they could still use some innings.

So what do those innings mean for this team? The Royals had two pitchers who were guaranteed starting spots and they were Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles. Greinke joins them in the rotation. Assuming they run with a traditional five-man rotation, that leaves two spots in a competition featuring the following pitchers:

Kris Bubic
Max Castillo
Jonathan Heasley
Brad Keller
Jackson Kowar
Daniel Lynch
Ryan Yarbrough
Angel Zerpa

Of those eight pitchers, Keller is the only one out of options. There are probably a handful of others who will be in camp like Jonathan Bowlan, Austin Cox, Alec Marsh and maybe Drew Parrish who will get chances, but they aren’t especially likely and have options as well.

So this fits the idea that the Royals are looking to build a versatile pitching staff in that there are pitchers who can spend time in Omaha as well as they craft the right staff for the next set of games. From what I understand, the organization knows that 2023 is the year for the young guys to figure out what they are and make determinations on their future as best they can after this season. If I had to guess, I’d say Lynch has the inside track to one of the final two spots and then it’s about if any of the young guys can take that final spot from either Keller or Yarbrough.

I know people are down on Bubic, and I totally understand why after his 2022 season, but he’s someone who I think can benefit from the new staff as much as anyone other than maybe Lynch. I’m curious to see what Heasley can do this season as well if Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove can work some magic to make his fastball not quite so hittable. Everyone always loves Zerpa because, in his brief big league time, he’s thrown strikes and challenged hitters. I think that’s something this group will like to see. I’ll do another roster projection here soon, but if I had to guess, I’d say the season starts with Lynch and Keller in the rotation.

You might wonder why Keller, and I think it’s simply a numbers game. I know we’ve done a lot of pondering over the bullpen in the last week or so, but we know without a doubt that right now, Scott Barlow, Aroldis Chapman, Taylor Clarke, Dylan Coleman, Amir Garrett, Josh Staumont and Josh Taylor will be in the Opening Day bullpen. That’s seven of eight spots. Things could change with trades, but this is what we’re looking at right now. And if Yarbrough isn’t in the rotation, he’s in the bullpen. There’s eight.

Of course, Keller could be in the bullpen with Yarbrough in the rotation, but I think, at least to start, the Royals might be more comfortable with the way I see it going. Nothing, of course, is permanent. Someone in the rotation today could be in the bullpen, in the minors or on another team tomorrow. The five starters I listed above averaged 148 innings last season. Only one made more than 27 starts. I think the Royals are hopeful from 30+ for Singer in 2023, but it would be the first time in his career he’s done that. There will be other starts to be had.

In the interim, Bubic, Castillo, Heasley, Kowar and Zerpa can make up part of an experienced AAA pitching staff that should also be joined by Bowlan, Marsh, Cox and Parrish. Though this does bring up the point that there might need to be some moves made just to fit some of this pitching at the upper levels of the organization. Or maybe there doesn’t need to be. Oh, and don’t forget Carlos Hernandez, who currently doesn’t have an option remaining but the organization is confident he’ll get an extra option year when those are decided soon.

So this move to bring Greinke back into the fold is one that continues to build the depth this organization has so desperately craved. I think a question will be fairly asked of these innings would be better served going to a young pitcher to evaluate, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned in nearly 40 years of watching baseball, it’s that when you think you have enough pitching, get more. And the Royals got more in the name of both a fan favorite and someone who actually performed for them last year. It’s certainly a risk, but it’s low risk and one that I fully support.