David, Tomorrow is Feb. 1st. Let's see your very early opening day lineup tomorrow. We won't hold you to it. I'd just be interested to see if you think Lopez will be there...who the third baseman will be...the outfield arrangement...DH...etc. You have your homework assignment. :)
I think you are spot on with the rotation when the season starts. I'm hoping by the end of the year we find at least 3 quality starters we can move forward with. I do believe this is the area of the team that will see the greatest amount of turnover.
The Keller decision is like a Dozier situation of the mound. We really don't have a future with him. He clogs up a spot on the rotation a future prospect could take. I just wonder if he might be traded at some point before or shortly after opening day. So far management have been clearing space for the young guys. Good play or bad, I have a feeling his days in a Royal uniform are numbered.
I think Keller could easily go before Opening Day and is maybe more likely than Dozier. You can count the number of teams with "enough" starters on one hand, so if anyone gets hurt, a $5.775 million pitcher who has been solid in the recent past and can eat some innings will be appealing. Because of that, I imagine he'll be built up as a starter regardless of his ultimate role.
Keller is the guy I feel most optimistic about under a new pitching system. Something just flat-out broke down in 2021 and 2022. I guess that could be said for the entire staff. But he was SO GOOD for that 3-year stretch from 2018-2020 (on par with Jack Flaherty and German Marquez), and I can't ignore that Nathan Eovaldi and Kevin Gausman are among his comps through age 26.
I agree in a lot of ways on him, but it just sucks because of the timing. What do you do with him if they get him back on track? Do you give him a long-term deal? I guess maybe. But there's a fair amount of risk in that, I think. I suppose all long-term deals with pitchers are. But it's also hard to get a long-term deal done with a guy that close to free agency. So I suppose you can move him at the deadline. I don't know. It's just a weird situation there.
Yeah, I think if you can get him back on track as a 120-130 ERA+ guy who doesn't allow homers, he's going to have a ton of value as a rental on the trade market come July. Plus, he's going to be unusually young for a free agent. Just a year older than Brady Singer.
Keller was a nice player for very bad teams. I still like him though he needs to find something again. Maybe different scenery will help. My observation above is mostly about his current situation with the Royals. We need a starting staff who are under control for an extended period of time.
This is a totally unscientific and probably optimistic view, but I look at this LARGE group and think that surely the odds favor a couple of guys having best years yet, a couple with breakout years, and a few that are just solid. Between the major league club and AAA, surely this happens. Right? Right? Please....?
I mean, you throw enough against a wall, something is bound to stick. I'm just interested in how the young arms work with the new coaching staff. You hear a lot about how they'd be better in a different organization. Well, they're in a different organization now for all intents and purposes. So let's see how they do.
David, have you heard anything about Angel Zerpa’s health? I know he was hampered with a knee issue last season - and then I noticed he only pitched one game in Venezuela this winter before the club ended his winter league season.
Emotionally, I'm onboard. And in a year that doesn't offer a ton of interest, it will be fun to see Zach out there battling every start. In terms of cold, hard rational calculation . . . I don't see it. We're not going to win this year (hoping for .500!), Zach is close to the end of his career, I'd love to believe in the idea of older-pitcher-mentoring benefits but I don't see the evidence. So I suspect the 8 mil + could have been better spent taking flyers on a couple cheap free agents. Ultimately, however, it just isn't very important--neither Zach nor the money is going to make or break the Royals in 24/25.
With all the young pitching needing to work with the new coaching staff, I'd much rather have someone who can be counted on than add three or four question marks for a couple million each. I mean, yeah, you could add Chris Archer and Joe Ross and Chad Kuhl or something, but I'm not sure I see a lot of benefit to that.
Upon further reflection... Yes this was probably necessary. But can we please keep the lid on the whole narrative of Zack as the all-knowing pitching guru who will be some sort of oracle for the youngish pitchers?
Zack has no idea what it's like to be a young pitcher possessed of only average talent struggling to make it in the big leagues. He's never experienced that. He has absolutely no idea what that feels like or how to deal with it despite the rocky start to his career. With his otherworldly natural ability he had options that most young pitchers can't even grasp. And Zack can't really grasp what it's like to be without those options.
It's the same reason that Ted Williams, quite possibly the greatest hitter of all time, was such an abysmal hitting coach and manager.
While I've said in the past that I agree that his prowess with young pitching is overblown, there's also something to seeing a veteran who has done it at the highest level prepare and learn from that. It's not always about being able to teach a pitch or how to attack a hitter but just seeing someone's pregame ritual and the way they go about their business can be beneficial. I don't think that's worth enough to sign a guy if he's not good, but at least Greinke is still effective as well.
Fair enough, that's a very balanced point of view. It's just that every time I encounter that argument I can't help but think of something I saw in my own career: professional musicians who were absolute virtuosos but utterly lousy teachers.
They couldn't understand how their students could fail to grasp or master what came so easily to them. And they had absolutely no idea how to help their students through it. It was Ted Williams syndrome, applied to a different mental and physical skill set.
Sure, and that's the case with a lot, but again, even if he isn't any good at teaching (and I don't know if he is or isn't to be honest), he's at least a good example.
Who knows, maybe Zach will prove to be the exception to Ted Williams syndrome. But I've seen no evidence of that unless you count the repetitious glowing testimonials from various team employees working as broadcasters.
Doggone it, now you've got me thinking about the whole pitching situation in general. The draft class of 2018 continues to be a major concern. Yes I know about 2020 but that was a long time ago. Like all excuses it has begun to wear thin.
Even if we arbitrarily subtract 1 year from the ages of all those guys to compensate for 2020 - a questionable procedure at best - none of them are anywhere near 21-year-old phenoms. The new pitching coaches/developers don't need to just be better than their predecessors. They need to be a whole lot better RIGHT NOW. We can't wait another two or three or four years for their changes to "take effect." By then that entire draft class will be in the area of 30 years old and, with the possible exception of Brady Singer, will be a lost cause. It will be time to hit the reset button once again.
It may not be fair but we need to see improvements very very quickly. It could be that the damage done by the previous coaches is irreversible. Or perhaps they didn't have all that much to work with. Whatever the case, we need to find out where things stand right the hell now. I'm running out of patience with "don't worry, they're all so young," and I sincerely hope JJ feels the same way.
They're not really all that young anymore. They're pretty close to the same age as Patrick Mahomes, for whom age doesn't seem to be much of a barrier ever since his MVP season at age 22. I don't expect any of them to be Mahomian but a majority of them need to be significantly better very soon.
I'm on the Zerpa bandwagon... Greinke is great to have around just because he is a total nut, who says and does the most off the wall stuff while still managing to be endearing. I don't buy into the teaching thing either. He's good for thr clubhouse anyway.... There does seem to be a large accumulation of middling talent to sort their way through. AAA Omaha is gonna be good...
David, there is no mention of Asa Lacy here. Is he still years away or has he been written off as a total bust? What are your thoughts on him someday joining the Royal's rotation?
He’s got some physical issues and has had trouble throwing strikes which many have thought might be a case of the yips. He isn’t on this list because he isn’t on the 40-man, he isn’t an NRI and he hasn’t pitched at as high a level as the others who I mentioned. Is he a bust? At this point it’s leaning to yes, but that could change in a hurry if he can get healthy and find the zone. Huge ifs, but the talent hasn’t gone anywhere.
I'm just not that big on bringing greinke back. He pretty much hung on by the skin of his teeth. He's barely a 5 inning pitcher who gives up a lot of hits at this point in his career. A big part of the problem with the team last year was that most of the starters could barely get thru the 5th inning then they would go thru the bullpen. Even if you have a decent bullpen when you bring in 4 or 5 different pitchers there's a good chance one or more of them is going to have a bad night. The more moving parts you have the more problems you're going to have. They need guys that can get into the 7th or 8th inning. Plus I don't like paying a 40 year old pitcher that much money. When I talk about guys getting into the later innings I'm not talking about the guy they signed from Baltimore who they gave 17 million to for 2 years. A guy who threw a lot of innings but had a high ERA and can't strike anyone out. With the shift being banned guys like this are going to get hammered. I don't understand all the money they spent on a bunch of washed up players.
David, Tomorrow is Feb. 1st. Let's see your very early opening day lineup tomorrow. We won't hold you to it. I'd just be interested to see if you think Lopez will be there...who the third baseman will be...the outfield arrangement...DH...etc. You have your homework assignment. :)
I'll do another roster projection sometime before camp opens, so I'll probably include something about that then.
I think you are spot on with the rotation when the season starts. I'm hoping by the end of the year we find at least 3 quality starters we can move forward with. I do believe this is the area of the team that will see the greatest amount of turnover.
The Keller decision is like a Dozier situation of the mound. We really don't have a future with him. He clogs up a spot on the rotation a future prospect could take. I just wonder if he might be traded at some point before or shortly after opening day. So far management have been clearing space for the young guys. Good play or bad, I have a feeling his days in a Royal uniform are numbered.
I think Keller could easily go before Opening Day and is maybe more likely than Dozier. You can count the number of teams with "enough" starters on one hand, so if anyone gets hurt, a $5.775 million pitcher who has been solid in the recent past and can eat some innings will be appealing. Because of that, I imagine he'll be built up as a starter regardless of his ultimate role.
Keller is the guy I feel most optimistic about under a new pitching system. Something just flat-out broke down in 2021 and 2022. I guess that could be said for the entire staff. But he was SO GOOD for that 3-year stretch from 2018-2020 (on par with Jack Flaherty and German Marquez), and I can't ignore that Nathan Eovaldi and Kevin Gausman are among his comps through age 26.
I agree in a lot of ways on him, but it just sucks because of the timing. What do you do with him if they get him back on track? Do you give him a long-term deal? I guess maybe. But there's a fair amount of risk in that, I think. I suppose all long-term deals with pitchers are. But it's also hard to get a long-term deal done with a guy that close to free agency. So I suppose you can move him at the deadline. I don't know. It's just a weird situation there.
Yeah, I think if you can get him back on track as a 120-130 ERA+ guy who doesn't allow homers, he's going to have a ton of value as a rental on the trade market come July. Plus, he's going to be unusually young for a free agent. Just a year older than Brady Singer.
His free agency is going to be fascinating if he can even get back to league average. Kind of a Gil Meche profile.
Keller was a nice player for very bad teams. I still like him though he needs to find something again. Maybe different scenery will help. My observation above is mostly about his current situation with the Royals. We need a starting staff who are under control for an extended period of time.
This is a totally unscientific and probably optimistic view, but I look at this LARGE group and think that surely the odds favor a couple of guys having best years yet, a couple with breakout years, and a few that are just solid. Between the major league club and AAA, surely this happens. Right? Right? Please....?
I mean, you throw enough against a wall, something is bound to stick. I'm just interested in how the young arms work with the new coaching staff. You hear a lot about how they'd be better in a different organization. Well, they're in a different organization now for all intents and purposes. So let's see how they do.
David, have you heard anything about Angel Zerpa’s health? I know he was hampered with a knee issue last season - and then I noticed he only pitched one game in Venezuela this winter before the club ended his winter league season.
From what I've heard, he's doing fine and should be good to go in a couple weeks for spring.
Emotionally, I'm onboard. And in a year that doesn't offer a ton of interest, it will be fun to see Zach out there battling every start. In terms of cold, hard rational calculation . . . I don't see it. We're not going to win this year (hoping for .500!), Zach is close to the end of his career, I'd love to believe in the idea of older-pitcher-mentoring benefits but I don't see the evidence. So I suspect the 8 mil + could have been better spent taking flyers on a couple cheap free agents. Ultimately, however, it just isn't very important--neither Zach nor the money is going to make or break the Royals in 24/25.
With all the young pitching needing to work with the new coaching staff, I'd much rather have someone who can be counted on than add three or four question marks for a couple million each. I mean, yeah, you could add Chris Archer and Joe Ross and Chad Kuhl or something, but I'm not sure I see a lot of benefit to that.
This was necessary. (SOMEBODY needs to throw all those innings.) But I find it less than thrilling.
Upon further reflection... Yes this was probably necessary. But can we please keep the lid on the whole narrative of Zack as the all-knowing pitching guru who will be some sort of oracle for the youngish pitchers?
Zack has no idea what it's like to be a young pitcher possessed of only average talent struggling to make it in the big leagues. He's never experienced that. He has absolutely no idea what that feels like or how to deal with it despite the rocky start to his career. With his otherworldly natural ability he had options that most young pitchers can't even grasp. And Zack can't really grasp what it's like to be without those options.
It's the same reason that Ted Williams, quite possibly the greatest hitter of all time, was such an abysmal hitting coach and manager.
While I've said in the past that I agree that his prowess with young pitching is overblown, there's also something to seeing a veteran who has done it at the highest level prepare and learn from that. It's not always about being able to teach a pitch or how to attack a hitter but just seeing someone's pregame ritual and the way they go about their business can be beneficial. I don't think that's worth enough to sign a guy if he's not good, but at least Greinke is still effective as well.
Fair enough, that's a very balanced point of view. It's just that every time I encounter that argument I can't help but think of something I saw in my own career: professional musicians who were absolute virtuosos but utterly lousy teachers.
They couldn't understand how their students could fail to grasp or master what came so easily to them. And they had absolutely no idea how to help their students through it. It was Ted Williams syndrome, applied to a different mental and physical skill set.
Sure, and that's the case with a lot, but again, even if he isn't any good at teaching (and I don't know if he is or isn't to be honest), he's at least a good example.
Who knows, maybe Zach will prove to be the exception to Ted Williams syndrome. But I've seen no evidence of that unless you count the repetitious glowing testimonials from various team employees working as broadcasters.
Doggone it, now you've got me thinking about the whole pitching situation in general. The draft class of 2018 continues to be a major concern. Yes I know about 2020 but that was a long time ago. Like all excuses it has begun to wear thin.
Even if we arbitrarily subtract 1 year from the ages of all those guys to compensate for 2020 - a questionable procedure at best - none of them are anywhere near 21-year-old phenoms. The new pitching coaches/developers don't need to just be better than their predecessors. They need to be a whole lot better RIGHT NOW. We can't wait another two or three or four years for their changes to "take effect." By then that entire draft class will be in the area of 30 years old and, with the possible exception of Brady Singer, will be a lost cause. It will be time to hit the reset button once again.
It may not be fair but we need to see improvements very very quickly. It could be that the damage done by the previous coaches is irreversible. Or perhaps they didn't have all that much to work with. Whatever the case, we need to find out where things stand right the hell now. I'm running out of patience with "don't worry, they're all so young," and I sincerely hope JJ feels the same way.
They're not really all that young anymore. They're pretty close to the same age as Patrick Mahomes, for whom age doesn't seem to be much of a barrier ever since his MVP season at age 22. I don't expect any of them to be Mahomian but a majority of them need to be significantly better very soon.
I'm on the Zerpa bandwagon... Greinke is great to have around just because he is a total nut, who says and does the most off the wall stuff while still managing to be endearing. I don't buy into the teaching thing either. He's good for thr clubhouse anyway.... There does seem to be a large accumulation of middling talent to sort their way through. AAA Omaha is gonna be good...
I totally get why people loved what they saw from Zerpa. I loved what I saw from Zerpa. I'm not sold, but I'd be interested in seeing more.
David, there is no mention of Asa Lacy here. Is he still years away or has he been written off as a total bust? What are your thoughts on him someday joining the Royal's rotation?
He’s got some physical issues and has had trouble throwing strikes which many have thought might be a case of the yips. He isn’t on this list because he isn’t on the 40-man, he isn’t an NRI and he hasn’t pitched at as high a level as the others who I mentioned. Is he a bust? At this point it’s leaning to yes, but that could change in a hurry if he can get healthy and find the zone. Huge ifs, but the talent hasn’t gone anywhere.
I'm just not that big on bringing greinke back. He pretty much hung on by the skin of his teeth. He's barely a 5 inning pitcher who gives up a lot of hits at this point in his career. A big part of the problem with the team last year was that most of the starters could barely get thru the 5th inning then they would go thru the bullpen. Even if you have a decent bullpen when you bring in 4 or 5 different pitchers there's a good chance one or more of them is going to have a bad night. The more moving parts you have the more problems you're going to have. They need guys that can get into the 7th or 8th inning. Plus I don't like paying a 40 year old pitcher that much money. When I talk about guys getting into the later innings I'm not talking about the guy they signed from Baltimore who they gave 17 million to for 2 years. A guy who threw a lot of innings but had a high ERA and can't strike anyone out. With the shift being banned guys like this are going to get hammered. I don't understand all the money they spent on a bunch of washed up players.