ItC Mailbag: Getting to .500, Figuring out the Prospect Logjam, Ideal Lineups and More
You had questions, I work to talk around the answers enough that I don't get backed into a corner.
Yesterday was one of the last off-days of the year for the Royals who have played so much better after the break. When Mike Matheny talked up what this team could do only to see them lose two of three to the Orioles immediately, it sure seemed like we could laugh about that for awhile. But somehow this organization continues to make predictions that seem insane that end up coming true. It goes back to Dayton Moore saying he wasn’t sure why that team couldn’t win 15 of 20 when the organization hadn’t done that in like a decade and then almost immediately doing just that. Maybe they should predict something even better…
While we contemplate that, let’s get to the questions.
I also wondered a bit why Melendez isn’t getting some run in the outfield, but I think some of that has to do with comfort. He’s taken ground balls before, but hasn’t really played outfield before. So I get that some. But also, until he actually does do it, he will still have never done it before. Maybe they want to get him some work in the winter or in spring training, but I agree that he should get a shot there. He’s probably athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot and he certainly has the arm for right field.
But I think this brings up a maybe bigger point that I’ve talked about with Soren Petro on his show. Why do they wait to do this? You see organizations like the Rays running guys all over the diamond in the minors and they’re prepared to play where they’re needed in the big leagues. With Melendez specifically, I guess I understand why they wouldn’t want to move him around to start the year. He’s coming off a terrible offensive season in 2019, so why do something to make him uncomfortable? But even so, I wonder why they wait so long on these things.
Ultimately, Melendez is a good defensive catcher, so that poses some problems. Maybe the Royals don’t want him using his legs as much as an outfielder would need to so he can save them to squat. Maybe they’re planning to use him as a trade piece and they don’t want to risk injury in a spot he isn’t familiar. I don’t know if that’s the case, obviously, but it would also make some sense. But there might come a time when, as much as everyone loves Salvador Perez, Melendez is the better option for 100 games a year.
I’m going to include this question here as part of the answer because it leads to another point.
I think the Freudian slip of Mendy Lopez really is supposed to be Nicky Lopez, but there’s also a concern in my mind that the outfield is going to be full already. I think Adalberto Mondesi is likely to get a lot of work this winter in the outfield. I actually think Lopez could handle the outfield. We know that Whit Merrifield can, but he’s proven this year that he can be a Gold Glove caliber second baseman. This is a great problem for the Royals to have with too many good players for too few positions, but I sort of wonder if part of the Melendez to the outfield hesitation is that there are already enough guys who will be working in the outfield without experience.
This is a fun one. First you have to think about where the team is in good shape and where they could use a spark. If you assume the infield is Nick Pratto/Carlos Santana, Merrifield, Lopez and Bobby Witt Jr., you feel pretty good about that with Mondesi working in a utility role. I don’t know if that will be the infield, but there’s not really an upgrade worth making there at this point. The outfield sets up as Andrew Benintendi and then a bunch of questions, so here’s where we’re going to look. The best center fielder on the market is Starling Marte, but I’m going to go to right field and add Nick Castellanos as a free agent.
Why Castellanos? Well he fits the Royals mold as an aggressive hitter, which I don’t love, but if they can add a monster bat like his to help out Perez and the young hitters, that can be a really deadly middle of the order for the team if anyone else steps up, whether it’s Whit, Pratto, Mondesi, Santana or Benintendi. Plus, you know anytime there’s bad news, Castellanos will be there to hit a home run in a big spot to drown out that bad news. But in all seriousness, his bat in the middle will play at Kauffman. It may not be quite as many home runs, but you’ll see the doubles machine that he was in Detroit at the very least.
As for a trade, I’m a bit torn on whether or not to go get a legitimate ace or to find that center fielder. If I’m going center field, it’s Ketel Marte. He’s been up and down, but when he’s up, he’s turned himself into a superstar offensive player. Defensively, the metrics don’t love him, and putting him next to Castellanos may be an absolute disaster, but you hope the pitching staff can start to get the strikeouts that their stuff indicates they’re capable of and defense becomes less of an issue. There’s also Bryan Reynolds. Maybe the Pirates are more willing to trade him than it seems like, but I love the guy if the Pirates would move on from him.
And if I went starting pitcher, I think I’d go back to an idea I presented a few weeks ago and target German Marquez. Right after I wrote that, Bud Black said that the Rockies have no intention of trading him. In my mind, I hoped he was responding to me, but I don’t think he was. I just think you put that arm at the top of this young rotation and you have something for a long time. He’s under team control through 2024 and is just 27 on Opening Day next year. He’s a horse and he’s done it at Coors Field. Putting him at Kauffman Stadium might be borderline unfair.
Really, the Royals are only two moves away if the rest of the young players (or at least enough of them) progress to improve. If they don’t do that, then it doesn’t really matter, but I think the second half has shown that they could be fairly close without a ton more of finishing to get done. A big-time bat and a big-time arm would be a huge start.
I think they either trade or non-tender Cam Gallagher. As much as I like him and think he has one of those random .278/.351/.432 seasons for a team as their starting catcher in a year when their starting catcher goes down, there’s just too much depth. The organization really likes Sebastian Rivero and MJ Melendez is on the way and needs to be added to the 40-man roster. The caveat here is if Melendez is moved they don’t need to make another move and will actually need to keep all three. The more I see of Melendez at AAA, the bigger mistake I think it’ll be to move him, but that’s another story.
The reality, though, is that they need to make a move. They have the 40-man roster space, but the roster only allows for so many of any one position. In the outfield for next year, they already have Benintendi, Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel and Hunter Dozier under team control for next season. Someone out of the infield of Witt, Lopez, Mondesi and Merrifield will need to move to the outfield probably as I mentioned above. As hot as Benintendi has been, a move from him wouldn’t surprise me, but I also don’t think I’m expecting it. After the season with Olivares, I have a hunch he’ll be on the move as part of a deal to get something they actually need. If it works, great, but if it doesn’t, I’ll feel like they really blundered getting him for a month of Trevor Rosenthal.
But I do think they’ll trade a prospect or two who people who don’t follow the team closely have heard of, and that will send some waves through the fan base. Will there be a surprise on the big league roster? I don’t see it. I think maybe they move a reliever, but outside of that or maybe including someone like Santana or Dozier as a pure salary dump in a deal, I’m thinking there won’t be much moved.
I’m going to answer this question using the construct of the actual roster because my ideal opening day lineup doesn’t include many players who are on the Royals or have a chance to be on the Royals next season. So I’ll just get to the lineup and then get to explaining:
Merrifield 2B
Lopez SS
Perez C
FA Bat RF
Mondesi DH
Benintendi LF
Santana 1B
Witt 3B
Isbel CF
I mentioned Castellanos above. I think they need to get a big bat, whether that’s him or someone else. I don’t know if they will, but they should. And you asked for the Opening Day lineup, which I like the idea of easing guys in. If all goes according to plan, there would be a lot of movement within 45-60 days. I’d hope that Witt moves up and Isbel as well. I’d hope that Santana is moved on from and Pratto is up playing first base. Mondesi at DH is just a start because he’ll play around the diamond and give guys half days off throughout the season as well.
What do I think it will be?
Merrifield 2B
Lopez SS
Perez C
Benintendi LF
Santana 1B
Mondesi DH
Witt 3B
Taylor CF
Isbel RF
I think it’ll be awfully similar to this season really, which is a mistake, but the organization likely sees multiple upgrades that’ll come up within a couple weeks. (Edited to add: I do think Pratto starts the year in the minors while they evaluate Santana for a bit more, but is up by mid-May. He’s had strikeout issues still in AAA, so you can argue he needs a bit more time.) And yes, I think they’re re-signing Taylor.
As for the rotation, I don’t really care too much about the order because that doesn’t make much of a difference as the season goes on. But my five starters to start the year are Max Scherzer, Carlos Hernandez, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Kris Bubic. Okay, fine, Scherzer is probably not exactly realistic, but I’d love for them to go after a legitimate top of the rotation starter. Like I said above, Marquez is a dream for me, but I’d also accept some sort of move like Jon Gray in free agency. And in my world, Mike Minor is moved to a team desperate for below average to average innings.
In reality, my guess is the rotation is Mike Minor, Carlos Hernandez, Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer and a mid-level free agent like Michael Pineda or something or Brad Keller. I would put Keller in the bullpen, so he’s not in my rotation, but he might be in the Royals. That said, his injury might give them the push they need to get him back there. And I believe his fastball will sit high-90s and that slider will be very deadly in the bullpen. Kris Bubic and Kowar will be on deck or maybe traded.
This is a good place to wrap this thing up. I think the player of the year is incredibly easy - Salvador Perez. I thought he’d hit more homers on that road trip to get closer to breaking Jorge Soler’s record, but he didn’t, so here we are. He still has a good chance to do it, but it’s less of a guarantee than I thought it would be. Even so, the second 40+ home run season in franchise history from probably the second best player in franchise history gets him the player of the year.
On the pitcher side, this is a tougher one. The four starting pitchers with 100+ innings have all had their issues. Minor, Singer, Bubic and Keller have all had their moments, but generally have had subpar seasons. In the bullpen, Josh Staumont and Jake Brentz have been good but not good enough. Hanser Alberto did get an out without allowing a run, but he’s probably out too. So we’re down to Scott Barlow and Carlos Hernandez. I’d go with Hernandez, but Barlow has had a very good season and would be worthy as well. I would say Hernandez is Rookie of the Year too.
The Burke Special Achievement Award goes to Nicky Lopez. In a world without Perez, he’s the player of the year, which might say more about the team than about their best players, but he’s still had an excellent season, especially given how the year started for him. It’s been a lot of fun to see him turn things around and become such an important cog for this team.
That’s all for this mailbag, friends. A lot of questions were asked that probably got answered in some above, so I didn’t get to everyone, but thanks so much for all the questions!
The announcement that Dayton Moore and JJ Piccolo are both being promoted is interesting. I hope it means the Royals will be more "transactional" this off season with Piccolo as GM.
So many good things in here, David. Thanks. Much to ponder, like you have, but one hit me upside the head. I had never stopped to think (or seen written about) Salvy being "probably the second best player in franchise history". My initial consideration, though, is that you are probably right. Very cool to think upon, and appreciate the player we are experiencing.