I'm a big fan of Heasley, mainly for the fact that he appears to be able to command the strike zone. Which not a lot of these young guys have shown that ability to yet. If you had to pick one right now. Heasley or Kowar as the best big league career? Kowar's got the stuff and potential but no ability to consistently command the zone. Maybe we haven't seen enough of Heasley to know for sure but he's appeared in control on the mound. I'm worried some of the shine is quickly coming off Kowar for any potential trade should they go that route. While the results don't have to be there yet.....most highly regarded rookies don't have an 11+ era after 7-8-9 starts now. Hope for the best, but a lot of concern here I think. Get into the offseason with a coach you trust and get it fixed Kowar! lol
That's a good question re: Heasley vs. Kowar and I don't think I know the answer to that. But the fact that it's a tough enough question to consider says a lot about how bad Kowar has been in the big leagues. If Heasley can access upper-90s velocity with that big curve and the solid changeup, that's plenty to succeed. Given one's ability to command pitches and the other's total inability, it's pretty tempting to go with Heasley. I think Kowar's changeup is better than any pitch Heasley throws and if he can put a wrinkle in his fastball, that combination still keeps him ahead, but it's closer than it should be. Which is really a good thing for the Royals. Like I said up above, it doesn't ultimately matter which three or four emerge as long as three or four emerge.
Does Kowar have 2 fastballs? One that is straight and gets hammered? And another that moves and will definitely play? If the latter, and with that changeup, and allowing the slider to play, we do have a high ceiling young pitcher who is making understandable adjustments due to the higher quality of big league hitters. It took Hosmer/Moose/Cain/Esky a year or more to hit their stride. Patience and, as you so aptly do, noticing the potential and improvements, is key. So, next year, we stick with them, let (hopefully most or all of them) work out the kinks. And we let the Big 3 come up from Omaha and work their their adjustment period, hoping that 2 or even all 3 of them are the real deal, but still understanding that it can take a year to really settle down. And - best case - voila - the next championship core, mostly/entirely homegrown due to great drafting and development - and we have met Sherman's (and our) dream - to have a sustainable great team, that can compete and win championships - without the great drop offs - even though next year will be like the first year Hosmer and company came up - lots of promise while working out the kinks - very exciting, with some further patience required.
I actually have it on my offseason list to look at Kowar's fastballs because some have so much movement and some are just straight as an arrow. What's he doing differently between those? I may not be able to see it from what's available to me, but I'm curious enough that I'm going to try. The thing is that of this group of young pitching that includes Kowar, Heasley, Singer, Bubic, Lynch, Hernandez, Lacy, Bowlan, Bolanos, and anyone else I'm missing of the group that's close, they can't all start. A nine-man rotation is tempting, but some of these guys are going to be moved in trades and some are going to be moved to the bullpen. At this point, you're right, there are still questions regarding who gets which treatment.
All that said, they do need to show progress next season. They're going to finish this year with 73 or 74 wins in all likelihood. Obviously no fewer than 71. If they go out next year and the young guys continue to get bombed and they go 68-94, that's awful. So while they do need to let these guys take some more lumps to be ready for 2023 when they really should be ready to take that next step, there's a lot on the line next year as well. I don't think Kowar would be allowed to fail like this at the big league level for long next season because they simply can't afford to let that happen. but it'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. The bats will be here. The arms will be here. It's just a matter of them actually performing.
Hopefully the bats will be there! Hopefully 2 or all 3 of the next bats will be the real deal. If so, and enough of the young pitchers are the real deal, then this looks like 2014 and 2015 all over again, even if not until 2023, because of better pitching this time around. And sustainable!
For what it is worth- we encourage young pitchers to have 2 or 3 fastball pitches, a 2 seam and or 4 seam , and then one you can command and throw it where you want to and one that you can just let it go and Kowar is struggling with the one he needs to locate and is leaving up and out over. One more thing we teach young pitchers- if you struggle in the 1st inning then you need to move your "1st inning" to the bull pen before the game. Pitchers don't want to waste "bullets" before the game so they try and save them during their warm up bull pen and then they turn around and throw a 30 pitch inning to start the game
I have said for years to just spend $10 million on whoever is churning out pitching for the Rays, Indians, etc. and let them run with the system. That'd be a start. I think they have done some work with the pitching in the minors. My gut is that it takes a little longer to see the fruit of that, but I'd still go out and just pay big money for the best developers in the business.
I'm a big fan of Heasley, mainly for the fact that he appears to be able to command the strike zone. Which not a lot of these young guys have shown that ability to yet. If you had to pick one right now. Heasley or Kowar as the best big league career? Kowar's got the stuff and potential but no ability to consistently command the zone. Maybe we haven't seen enough of Heasley to know for sure but he's appeared in control on the mound. I'm worried some of the shine is quickly coming off Kowar for any potential trade should they go that route. While the results don't have to be there yet.....most highly regarded rookies don't have an 11+ era after 7-8-9 starts now. Hope for the best, but a lot of concern here I think. Get into the offseason with a coach you trust and get it fixed Kowar! lol
That's a good question re: Heasley vs. Kowar and I don't think I know the answer to that. But the fact that it's a tough enough question to consider says a lot about how bad Kowar has been in the big leagues. If Heasley can access upper-90s velocity with that big curve and the solid changeup, that's plenty to succeed. Given one's ability to command pitches and the other's total inability, it's pretty tempting to go with Heasley. I think Kowar's changeup is better than any pitch Heasley throws and if he can put a wrinkle in his fastball, that combination still keeps him ahead, but it's closer than it should be. Which is really a good thing for the Royals. Like I said up above, it doesn't ultimately matter which three or four emerge as long as three or four emerge.
Does Kowar have 2 fastballs? One that is straight and gets hammered? And another that moves and will definitely play? If the latter, and with that changeup, and allowing the slider to play, we do have a high ceiling young pitcher who is making understandable adjustments due to the higher quality of big league hitters. It took Hosmer/Moose/Cain/Esky a year or more to hit their stride. Patience and, as you so aptly do, noticing the potential and improvements, is key. So, next year, we stick with them, let (hopefully most or all of them) work out the kinks. And we let the Big 3 come up from Omaha and work their their adjustment period, hoping that 2 or even all 3 of them are the real deal, but still understanding that it can take a year to really settle down. And - best case - voila - the next championship core, mostly/entirely homegrown due to great drafting and development - and we have met Sherman's (and our) dream - to have a sustainable great team, that can compete and win championships - without the great drop offs - even though next year will be like the first year Hosmer and company came up - lots of promise while working out the kinks - very exciting, with some further patience required.
I actually have it on my offseason list to look at Kowar's fastballs because some have so much movement and some are just straight as an arrow. What's he doing differently between those? I may not be able to see it from what's available to me, but I'm curious enough that I'm going to try. The thing is that of this group of young pitching that includes Kowar, Heasley, Singer, Bubic, Lynch, Hernandez, Lacy, Bowlan, Bolanos, and anyone else I'm missing of the group that's close, they can't all start. A nine-man rotation is tempting, but some of these guys are going to be moved in trades and some are going to be moved to the bullpen. At this point, you're right, there are still questions regarding who gets which treatment.
All that said, they do need to show progress next season. They're going to finish this year with 73 or 74 wins in all likelihood. Obviously no fewer than 71. If they go out next year and the young guys continue to get bombed and they go 68-94, that's awful. So while they do need to let these guys take some more lumps to be ready for 2023 when they really should be ready to take that next step, there's a lot on the line next year as well. I don't think Kowar would be allowed to fail like this at the big league level for long next season because they simply can't afford to let that happen. but it'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. The bats will be here. The arms will be here. It's just a matter of them actually performing.
Hopefully the bats will be there! Hopefully 2 or all 3 of the next bats will be the real deal. If so, and enough of the young pitchers are the real deal, then this looks like 2014 and 2015 all over again, even if not until 2023, because of better pitching this time around. And sustainable!
For what it is worth- we encourage young pitchers to have 2 or 3 fastball pitches, a 2 seam and or 4 seam , and then one you can command and throw it where you want to and one that you can just let it go and Kowar is struggling with the one he needs to locate and is leaving up and out over. One more thing we teach young pitchers- if you struggle in the 1st inning then you need to move your "1st inning" to the bull pen before the game. Pitchers don't want to waste "bullets" before the game so they try and save them during their warm up bull pen and then they turn around and throw a 30 pitch inning to start the game
Who is the pitching equivalent of Saylor and Zumwalt, and how do we find them?
I have said for years to just spend $10 million on whoever is churning out pitching for the Rays, Indians, etc. and let them run with the system. That'd be a start. I think they have done some work with the pitching in the minors. My gut is that it takes a little longer to see the fruit of that, but I'd still go out and just pay big money for the best developers in the business.