ItC Lockout Mailbag: Merrifield's Future as a Union Rep, Witt's Role, Maikel Garcia and More
It's a good sign when the owners refuse to respond to the last proposal, right?
We have officially reached a point that I didn’t think we’d reach. I was naive. Spring training will very likely not start on time, which is especially frustrating for me because I’ll be in Arizona March 1-7. I guess that’s just more time to eat, which isn’t the worst thing given how much good food there is in the area. But that’s not great for me getting in the best shape of my life.
I would like to say something on a personal note before I get to the questions. Today is the one-year anniversary of the very first Inside the Crown newsletter. The first email went to six people, all added by me, so definitely just family who maybe didn’t even know they were going to get it. It’s insane to me that thousands more have added their names to that list willingly. So thank you to everyone for helping to make this little project become a much bigger project. It’s something I’ve absolutely loved doing and look forward to doing for years to come, but I can’t do it without you all. I’ll never be able to fully express my gratitude, but just know it’s there and I think about how important you all are daily.
Okay, enough sappy stuff. Let’s get to the questions.
I love this question because it allows me to both praise the current regime for the things they deserve to be praised for and bash previous regimes. For those who don’t know, David Cone was the Royals player rep the last time there was a baseball work stoppage. He won the Cy Young in 1994 with a great season and then was traded before the 1995 season when baseball came back. The package the Royals got from the Blue Jays was the star-studded trio of Tony Medrano, Dave Sinnes and Chris Stynes. Of those three, I’d say a good chunk of you know who Stynes is, a few less know the name of Medrano and like eight of you remember Sinnes. I know I didn’t remember him.
The Herk Robinson and ownership trust days were…well…bad. And Cone was very likely on the receiving end of the venom. Only he wasn’t the one who was hurt the most. It was Royals fans. Cone was due to make $8 million that year, which was a lot for the time and for a team run by a trust, but also not so much that he absolutely had to be dealt. That group running the team was bad for the team and bad for baseball.
There are plenty of reasons to complain about the current group running the team, at least the front office. Dayton Moore was the general manager for 15 full seasons and they were .500 or better in just four of them. We’ve seen an overreliance on utility infielders and aging relievers and all sorts of things that have driven us nuts. But this is also a group that cares deeply about baseball, the team and the city. I also get the sense that John Sherman is an owner who is on the same page with them. I’m sure there’s some disdain for Sherman as one of the 30 owners part of the lockout, but I feel like he has the best interest of the team and city in his heart.
So the long story short here is that I don’t anticipate Whit Merrifield will be given the Cone treatment. I think the organization respects his role with the union much more than it did back in the mid-90s. Merrifield may still get moved (I don’t think he will), but it will be because it’s best for the organization and not because he’s been involved with these labor deals. Plus, Chris Stynes is retired, so I don’t see him as the return on the deal anyway.
Barring a change in the direction of the labor negotiations, it appears that service time rules won’t be changed enough to impact the way the team handles prospects. With that in mind, to the dismay of many, they haven’t played service time games in the past. Alex Gordon was up on Opening Day in 2007. Brady Singer could have been pushed back a week to add an extra year of service time in 2020. In between, they called up Eric Hosmer in May when an extra month could have bought an extra year. If they believe a player can help the team win, even if it turns them into a 77-win team instead of a 75-win team, they’ll bring that player up. So I think Bobby Witt Jr. makes the team out of spring training if he earns it.
I anticipate he will earn it. As I wrote a couple weeks ago, I think that Nicky Lopez will be the shortstop…if he earns it. And that’s one that I’m not as confident about. He had a very nice 2021 season and has had two good springs out of his last three, but if he has another spring like he did in 2021, he won’t get demoted, but will likely end up as the utility player. In that scenario, I’d guess Witt plays shortstop and Adalberto Mondesi plays third. If he wins his shortstop job back, I would guess Witt plays third and Mondesi is the utility guy in this scenario. In all scenarios, I see Merrifield playing second.
As for the lineup, the top is pretty well set with Lopez in there. They’ll start the year with Merrifield, Lopez, Salvador Perez and Andrew Benintendi in the top four spots in some order. Carlos Santana still exists on the team (for now) and will likely hit somewhere around fifth or sixth. Hunter Dozier probably gets started around the five to seven spot in the lineup. I’m guessing that Witt fits whatever spot from five to seven is open.
On a related note…
If I had to guess, I’d say the Opening Day lineup is as follows:
Merrifield
Lopez
Perez
Benintendi
Dozier
Santana
Witt
Isbel
Taylor
But man, there’s a lot of time for that to change. This is not my official prediction. That usually comes much closer to spring and it’s especially tough given that there are still more than 100 free agents left they could move. But if I had to put a number on them right now, I’d say 78-84. I don’t think I’d be that surprised if they were 10 wins better or 10 wins worse though.
And if you want what I’d do?
I like this question because it’s actually difficult for the first time in a few years with this team. There are legitimate options. Here’s what I’d do to start the season:
Merrifield 2B
Conforto RF
Perez C
Benintendi LF
Witt 3B
Melendez DH
Dozier 1B
Lopez SS
Isbel CF
Yeah, I’d make a splash and get Michael Conforto because I want that experienced bat in there and I want to bump Michael A. Taylor to the fourth outfielder role he should have. If I had to go with what was already on the roster, I guess bump Lopez up to the second spot, move Isbel back to right and put Taylor in center.
As much as I believe in Nick Pratto, I would probably start him in AAA. His strikeouts were just concerning enough that I would like to see him get something like 90-100 more plate appearances just to see if he’s worked some of that out with his offseason work. I don’t think Melendez has that much of an issue with swing and miss, so I’d trust him out of the gate with the team. And, of course, he’s DHing in this lineup, but he and Salvy would split time behind the plate and maybe even some at first.
What’s nice is you could make an argument for Mondesi at shortstop and Lopez on the bench or Merrifield in right with all three on the infield. Or starting with all three of the big bat prospects too. You mentioned Dozier specifically and while I know I get some heat for it, I still believe in the guy. But he’s probably the odd man out once Pratto comes up.
Maikel Garcia is an intriguing prospect because he sort of came out of nowhere in the system, but I think it would have seemed a lot less sudden if they had played minor league games in 2020. He worked his way onto the 40-man roster with a solid season that ended in High-A Quad Cities. What he is right now is a very good defender at shortstop who controls the strike zone well. The power is light, but not entirely empty with the ability to spray the ball a bit and he runs well.
Someone with his contact rates will likely always find himself a spot as organizational depth at the very worst, but guys like him who can play good defense up the middle do find big league success. Given his build and the room for some serious bulking up, I might regret this ceiling, but a career like Elvis Andrus doesn’t seem out of the question. It doesn’t hurt that he has big league bloodlines as Alcides Escobar’s cousin (and thus, also related to Ronald Acuña Jr.) which some may scoff at, but does help in a lot of instances, I think anyway.
If he can improve his swing mechanics, which are not especially pretty to watch, he could hit his ceiling and, with his defense, could be a pretty solid player. In a middle infield rich system like the Royals have, he might find a tough path to the big leagues, but I would say your 2025 timeline is a bit too long. He was added to the 40-man this year, so that would be the last chance for him to break in as he’ll be out of options by then if he hasn’t stuck. That said, I also wouldn’t be too surprised if he’s part of a deal to bring back something the Royals need more at some point over the next 18 months.
This is way too early for sure as I’ve barely started even looking at the draft, so I’ll keep this short but I do have some thoughts. Robert Moore is definitely tracking to be taken right around the Royals pick, but I kind of agree with my friends over at Royals Farm Report that they won’t do it. It just seems like something Dayton wouldn’t want to put on his son. And some might not like it if he’s actually the best player available in that spot. Some other names I’m keeping an eye on are Dylan Lesko, Gavin Cross, Landon Sims, Brock Jones and Blade Tidwell. I’m going to get more into some draft stuff after I get back from Arizona, so stay tuned.
I don’t especially see a huge need for this if they’re not planning on moving Merrifield after the lockout ends. As it stands right now, they have Hunter Dozier, who can move around the field (though he doesn’t play any position especially well) along with Merrifield, who can play second, first and any outfield spot relatively competently. They also have Lopez who can handle short and second (and I think could play outfield), Mondesi who can play any of second, third and short, Witt who can play short and third in addition to having four outfielders on the 40-man already.
But if they’re going to do it, I do think a trade is probably the best way to accomplish that. If you look at what’s left on the free agent market, the “versatile” bats left are Kris Bryant, Derek Dietrich, Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Harrison, Brad Miller and Chris Owings (my nightmare). Yes, it’d be great to add Bryant to the lineup, but not for what he’s going to want to be paid, so there just isn’t much out there. And that lends itself to the trade market.
The Mets are a team looking to unload and they could do worse than to bring in McNeil or Davis, but I still just don’t see the point to it. With McNeil at least, I’ve sort of come around on the idea that he could be a nice fit to provide insurance for the infield bats. It’s easy to look at the glut the Royals have right now and think they’re all set, but we know Mondesi isn’t a guarantee to play and at this point, Lopez has had one good season. If he turns back into a pumpkin, it’d be nice to have someone to take over at least until guys like Nick Loftin, Michael Massey, Peyton Wilson and others can work their way to the big leagues.
Outside of the Mets, there are some options for the trade market. Look to the teams who figure to be selling still like the A’s and they have Tony Kemp. I’m sure the Padres would love to get out from under the Jurickson Profar deal that I wrongly wanted the Royals to give him so bad. I’m sure there are some others too, but, again, I just don’t see a reason.
I think we’re already seeing something young. The current 40-man roster, which is full has 33 players who under the age of 30 for 2022. Of those, 25 are 27 or younger. But you’re right that there’s room for even more. Of the seven players who are older than 30 heading into the 2022 season, only two are core players - Merrifield and Perez. Dozier is somewhere in the middle of core and stopgap. The rest - Mike Minor, Santana, Domingo Tapia and Taylor - are the stopgaps. And a roster will always have veterans like them on it.
You’ll start to see some additional ascension to the big leagues from the young guys early this year. I think Pratto and Melendez should be up before the break. Vinnie Pasquantino may not be too far behind if he keeps up what he did in 2021. I’ve been touting Loftin as a quick riser this year on prospect lists and if he moves to center field as Keith Law suggests, he could be up pretty quick. Some of the others may not be quite so fast, simply because of the lack of a spot, but the system appears to be moving right now.
But I think it’s important to realize that they’ve already transitioned quite a bit with so many of the young players in the big leagues. Outside of Perez, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you see a second-half lineup with five or six guys 27 or younger. And Brad Keller may be the oldest starter they throw out there in the second half and he turns 27 in July. The youth is already here and more is on the way.
Playing the fake GM game is always fun. But I will start with the caveat that I don’t think there’s one trade that could make the Royals a contender in the AL unless you’re talking about a deal that just won’t happen. Picking up Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler would be awesome, but that’s just not in the cards. The Royals will become a real player in the American League internally (check out the next question), but there is a move I’d jump on right now that would help to get them that much closer.
I’d send Pratto, Daniel Lynch and let’s say two other guys in the 7-13 range of team prospects to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds and David Bednar. Bednar is honestly just a bit of an extra in the deal because I’m a big fan of his and would love to see the Royals get him, but Reynolds is the prize here. He’s a 27-year old switch hitting center fielder who has power, patience and can hit for average. The one thing the Royals system especially lacks is center field talent. It’s why they felt compelled to give Taylor an extra two years.
Yes, a middle infielder could move to the outfield and take to it well as so many have over the years or maybe Kyle Isbel could handle the spot for a couple seasons, but Reynolds is a legitimate difference-maker. And while the metrics don’t love him defensively, I haven’t seen anything to make me think he can’t handle the spot in Kauffman Stadium for at least a few seasons before he’d need a move to a corner.
It’s a tough pill to swallow to move Pratto after his breakout season, but Pasquantino also breaking out would help quite a bit to lessen that. And with MJ Melendez’s emergence as well and Perez still behind the plate, you’re starting to wonder where the at bats might come from. Maybe Pasquantino and/or Melendez doesn’t pan out, but you have to deal from a position of strength. And that’s also where dealing Lynch comes in too. It doesn’t have to be him necessarily. Maybe the Pirates prefer Kris Bubic or Singer or whoever, but sometimes you have to make a trade that hurts. Put Reynolds in the middle of the lineup and I think that gets something cooking.
I would love to see them go get Reynolds or sign Conforto like I mentioned above, but I don’t think it’ll be a big splash. I could see them going to get a lefty reliever. Andrew Chafin and Jake Diekman have both been mentioned. Maybe it’s a bench bat. I used Kevin Pillar in a previous article. Not a single one of those signings is actually “big” even on the Jason Vargas major announcement scale.
But I could actually see them moving Santana. With the news that the DH is going to be universal, that opens up 15 teams with an extra lineup spot. Not that Santana couldn’t play first still, but maybe a team like Arizona would like that professional bat to help them get on base a little bit. Even with a .210 average over the last two years, Santana has still gotten on base at a .327 clip. The Cubs are rocking Frank Schwindel at first and he is a DH if there ever was one. The Brewers current first baseman is either Rowdy Tellez or Keston Hiura. I think they could use Santana.
So that’s the big trade I’ll predict. It’s getting rid of a contract to make some room for younger players.
Let’s end on this one because optimism is fun.
The absolute best-case scenario in 2022 means that a couple of the pitchers step up as top-of-the-rotation arms and the offense takes another step. Let’s say that the two who step up are Lynch and Carlos Hernandez, because why not? Those two are legitimately at the top of a rotation in this world while Keller and Singer work as mid-rotation guys. Someone will work as a fifth starter, but in the best-case world, Bubic is also a mid-rotation guy. So you’re looking at two guys who slot as legitimate 1/2 arms and three who work as third starters. Add in a bullpen that I’m already quite bullish on and this could be a top three pitching staff. If it’s the best-case scenario.
Moving to the offense, adding Witt, Pratto and Melendez mixing in with Lopez repeating his 2021, Mondesi finally figuring it all out and Benintendi and Dozier repeating what they did in September. Add in Perez continuing to hit for big power and that has the potential to be a top-three lineup as well. That lineup is also an elite defensive lineup.
So the absolute best-case scenario puts the Royals as a legitimate World Series contender. Is it even remotely likely? No, I don’t see it in 2022 personally, but the fact that there is actually an upside there, as unlikely as it is, is pretty fun. You don’t have to think back too far to see a roster that had something like 70-win upside. While they’re not there yet, this is much better.
Wow, great questions and answers both in this mailbag.
I didn't know GMDM, err... PDM had a son who was a first round draft prospect. That's crazy!
Tough situation for the team. If they're wrong about him (either taking him and he fails or not taking him and he's a star) they're going to get a lot of flack. I wonder if this played in at all to the decision to promote Moore (or his decision to accept it)? Not sure how involved with the draft the club president is. Probably a fair bit actually.
I've gone back and forth on reasons the Royals would or wouldn't draft Robert at #9. I think I'm still leaning toward "wouldn't," but this would be the ultimate litmus test for just how much the Royals trust the organizational culture they've built since 2007. If they think it's solid enough, and with the way Dayton and JJ do what they think is right, I could see it happening if Robert is there.