Wow, great questions and answers both in this mailbag.
I didn't know GMDM, err... PDM had a son who was a first round draft prospect. That's crazy!
Tough situation for the team. If they're wrong about him (either taking him and he fails or not taking him and he's a star) they're going to get a lot of flack. I wonder if this played in at all to the decision to promote Moore (or his decision to accept it)? Not sure how involved with the draft the club president is. Probably a fair bit actually.
I don’t think the promotion was related to that at all because, yeah, there’s still a ton of involvement. But it’s definitely a tricky situation. That’s why I agree with the RFR thought that they’ll stay away. It’s not like there isn’t comparable talent they can reasonably take at least.
I love the idea of Conforto or even a Suzuki to come in and play RF. Maybe Conforto becomes more realistic with draft pick compensation being eliminated for signing a player who received the QO. But this team needs another ready now bat to hit 2-5 somewhere.
I might be wrong, but I'd assume the draft pick compensation would start next year given that the first part of the offseason was performed under the old CBA. They absolutely need another bat because that best-case scenario isn't especially likely.
I don’t care how likely it is, I just love heading into the season knowing it’s not impossible to see some awesome baseball! Congrats on a year, can’t wait to see how much more it grows in the second year!
Congratulations on the first year - I just went back into my email to check and I subscribed on 2/11/21, so I guess I've been here from basically the start. Thanks for putting out so much intelligent Royals content.
I'd like to buck the conventional wisdom on Mondesi. I know he's "injury prone"*, and even the team has talked about needing to no longer count on him as an everyday player.
*I don't think it's established that he's any more prone to injury than anyone else. His worst injury was a labrum tear that resulted from him making a terrific effort on a foul ball; they tried to treat it without surgery and that led to him suffering a second, similar injury diving for a ground ball.
Mondy's injuries basically fall into 2 groups:
(1) Shoulder (labrum tear), all traceable to that one play against CWS in July 2019
(2) Various muscle pulls (groin, hamstring, oblique)
He also suffered a shoulder impingement in 2018 that caused him to miss time, which doesn't really fall into either group. However, that hasn't flared back up, so perhaps he has addressed whatever mechanical or conditioning issue was causing it.
Speaking of conditioning.. I'm not Nick Kenney. I am not in the weight room at Kauffman Stadium or in Surprise. Still, is it more likely that his various muscle pulls are caused by him being fragile, or perhaps he isn't being properly prepared to play? He wouldn't be the first young, supremely gifted player to rely on his physical gifts and fail to put in the needed work. That can be addressed. Are Kenney and the Strength & Conditioning team doing the work to put him in a position to succeed? Who knows? Before we write off the most talented player on the team (at least pre-BWJ), I want to know the answer to those questions.
Finally, even if we assume he is more likely to be injured, I'm not certain that using him as a bench player is the right move. Build in depth, be prepared to move people around, but even in that scenario, I want him on the field as much as possible. A huge part of his value is his defense, so play him at SS or 3B, or bite the bullet and convert him to a CF. My ideal lineup would include:
1B: Pratto
2B: Lopez
SS: Mondesi
3B: Witt**
C/DH: Perez/Melendez
CF: Isbel***
LF: Benintendi
RF: Merrifield
**I was surprised that you were thinking of Witt starting lower in the lineup. You're probably right, but eventually he slots in at the 2 or 3 spot this year, right?
***I love your idea to go get a guy like Reynolds (the OBP guy this lineup desperately needs) or even Conforto, as I'm not thrilled with the idea of Isbel being an everyday guy. If they don't add/move anyone of significance, I'd have Dozier, Rivera & MAT as my bench guys, with Whit and Rivera as my backup infielders, and I'd trade Santana for a bag of peanuts.
As for Mondesi, I think perception is everything with him. I made the point early in the season when I was on The Program that he had actually played a higher percentage of games out of the number possible than Lorenzo Cain had heading into 2014. I think the 2021 season was a bad look for Mondesi given his inability to get back on the field throughout it. But at the same time, it really felt like one injury led to the next which led to the next, so maybe it should be looked at as just one injury.
As for the training staff, I honestly don't know how good (or not good) they might be. Early in their tenure, they were winning awards as best training staff in baseball. They haven't, but that doesn't mean they magically forgot how to do their job. But it would be good to know.
The problem I have with continuing to label Mondesi as this talented beast ready to break out is that he still hasn't done it when he's been on the field. I don't think it's entirely his fault. As I've written a number of times, the Royals shoulder a good portion of the blame for his development. But no matter how much talent he has, since he was ready to be in the big leagues, he's posted a .293 OBP with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate.
Nobody doubts the tools, but if he can't make more contact or become more patient, at some point, it just doesn't matter. I love the guy. Someone with his speed and his ability to drive the ball is a player you can't give up on, I agree with that. But he has to show it eventually. People compare him to Byron Buxton all the time, but look at these last three years - https://bit.ly/BuxtonVMondesi. That's not even a competition.
All that said, he's a bench guy in name only. I still think he plays four or five days a week, just without a position so when you put a lineup together, he's not going to be in it because he's the guy who plays shortstop one day, third base the next, DH the next and second base the next. So I'm certainly not relegating him to 180 plate appearances in my mind.
And finally, on the Witt point, one thing that I've always marveled at with the Cardinals (ugh) is how guys break in without having to be the star. I think that was something that made life tough on Billy Butler and Alex Gordon and something that the Royals were trying to avoid with Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas (though I'm not sure they did very well with that). To be able to hit in the lower half of a lineup to start is a blessing. And eventually the talent rises, so even if he's hitting sixth or seventh to start, I'd guess he's hitting 2/3 by the end of the season.
I've gone back and forth on reasons the Royals would or wouldn't draft Robert at #9. I think I'm still leaning toward "wouldn't," but this would be the ultimate litmus test for just how much the Royals trust the organizational culture they've built since 2007. If they think it's solid enough, and with the way Dayton and JJ do what they think is right, I could see it happening if Robert is there.
It's just so tough to know what they'd do. I also go back and forth on it. But I bet if you got some truth serum in them, they'd say they hope he goes before they have the chance to pick him.
Congratulations on a year David. I look forward to opening my inbox every morning, as I am hoping you are there. I sure hope they get something worked out soon,but I am afraid the season is going to start a little late. Looking forward to year 2!!!!!
Congrats on one year! Thanks for all the great Royals content!
Thank YOU for subscribing and reading!
Wow, great questions and answers both in this mailbag.
I didn't know GMDM, err... PDM had a son who was a first round draft prospect. That's crazy!
Tough situation for the team. If they're wrong about him (either taking him and he fails or not taking him and he's a star) they're going to get a lot of flack. I wonder if this played in at all to the decision to promote Moore (or his decision to accept it)? Not sure how involved with the draft the club president is. Probably a fair bit actually.
I don’t think the promotion was related to that at all because, yeah, there’s still a ton of involvement. But it’s definitely a tricky situation. That’s why I agree with the RFR thought that they’ll stay away. It’s not like there isn’t comparable talent they can reasonably take at least.
I love the idea of Conforto or even a Suzuki to come in and play RF. Maybe Conforto becomes more realistic with draft pick compensation being eliminated for signing a player who received the QO. But this team needs another ready now bat to hit 2-5 somewhere.
I might be wrong, but I'd assume the draft pick compensation would start next year given that the first part of the offseason was performed under the old CBA. They absolutely need another bat because that best-case scenario isn't especially likely.
Congratulations on your 1 year anniversary! Yours is my favorite Royals blog!
Thank you so much!
I don’t care how likely it is, I just love heading into the season knowing it’s not impossible to see some awesome baseball! Congrats on a year, can’t wait to see how much more it grows in the second year!
Thanks, Travis! Even the possibility of good is great to see!
Congratulations on the first year - I just went back into my email to check and I subscribed on 2/11/21, so I guess I've been here from basically the start. Thanks for putting out so much intelligent Royals content.
I'd like to buck the conventional wisdom on Mondesi. I know he's "injury prone"*, and even the team has talked about needing to no longer count on him as an everyday player.
*I don't think it's established that he's any more prone to injury than anyone else. His worst injury was a labrum tear that resulted from him making a terrific effort on a foul ball; they tried to treat it without surgery and that led to him suffering a second, similar injury diving for a ground ball.
Mondy's injuries basically fall into 2 groups:
(1) Shoulder (labrum tear), all traceable to that one play against CWS in July 2019
(2) Various muscle pulls (groin, hamstring, oblique)
He also suffered a shoulder impingement in 2018 that caused him to miss time, which doesn't really fall into either group. However, that hasn't flared back up, so perhaps he has addressed whatever mechanical or conditioning issue was causing it.
Speaking of conditioning.. I'm not Nick Kenney. I am not in the weight room at Kauffman Stadium or in Surprise. Still, is it more likely that his various muscle pulls are caused by him being fragile, or perhaps he isn't being properly prepared to play? He wouldn't be the first young, supremely gifted player to rely on his physical gifts and fail to put in the needed work. That can be addressed. Are Kenney and the Strength & Conditioning team doing the work to put him in a position to succeed? Who knows? Before we write off the most talented player on the team (at least pre-BWJ), I want to know the answer to those questions.
Finally, even if we assume he is more likely to be injured, I'm not certain that using him as a bench player is the right move. Build in depth, be prepared to move people around, but even in that scenario, I want him on the field as much as possible. A huge part of his value is his defense, so play him at SS or 3B, or bite the bullet and convert him to a CF. My ideal lineup would include:
1B: Pratto
2B: Lopez
SS: Mondesi
3B: Witt**
C/DH: Perez/Melendez
CF: Isbel***
LF: Benintendi
RF: Merrifield
**I was surprised that you were thinking of Witt starting lower in the lineup. You're probably right, but eventually he slots in at the 2 or 3 spot this year, right?
***I love your idea to go get a guy like Reynolds (the OBP guy this lineup desperately needs) or even Conforto, as I'm not thrilled with the idea of Isbel being an everyday guy. If they don't add/move anyone of significance, I'd have Dozier, Rivera & MAT as my bench guys, with Whit and Rivera as my backup infielders, and I'd trade Santana for a bag of peanuts.
You're absolutely an ItC hipster!
As for Mondesi, I think perception is everything with him. I made the point early in the season when I was on The Program that he had actually played a higher percentage of games out of the number possible than Lorenzo Cain had heading into 2014. I think the 2021 season was a bad look for Mondesi given his inability to get back on the field throughout it. But at the same time, it really felt like one injury led to the next which led to the next, so maybe it should be looked at as just one injury.
As for the training staff, I honestly don't know how good (or not good) they might be. Early in their tenure, they were winning awards as best training staff in baseball. They haven't, but that doesn't mean they magically forgot how to do their job. But it would be good to know.
The problem I have with continuing to label Mondesi as this talented beast ready to break out is that he still hasn't done it when he's been on the field. I don't think it's entirely his fault. As I've written a number of times, the Royals shoulder a good portion of the blame for his development. But no matter how much talent he has, since he was ready to be in the big leagues, he's posted a .293 OBP with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate.
Nobody doubts the tools, but if he can't make more contact or become more patient, at some point, it just doesn't matter. I love the guy. Someone with his speed and his ability to drive the ball is a player you can't give up on, I agree with that. But he has to show it eventually. People compare him to Byron Buxton all the time, but look at these last three years - https://bit.ly/BuxtonVMondesi. That's not even a competition.
All that said, he's a bench guy in name only. I still think he plays four or five days a week, just without a position so when you put a lineup together, he's not going to be in it because he's the guy who plays shortstop one day, third base the next, DH the next and second base the next. So I'm certainly not relegating him to 180 plate appearances in my mind.
And finally, on the Witt point, one thing that I've always marveled at with the Cardinals (ugh) is how guys break in without having to be the star. I think that was something that made life tough on Billy Butler and Alex Gordon and something that the Royals were trying to avoid with Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas (though I'm not sure they did very well with that). To be able to hit in the lower half of a lineup to start is a blessing. And eventually the talent rises, so even if he's hitting sixth or seventh to start, I'd guess he's hitting 2/3 by the end of the season.
I've gone back and forth on reasons the Royals would or wouldn't draft Robert at #9. I think I'm still leaning toward "wouldn't," but this would be the ultimate litmus test for just how much the Royals trust the organizational culture they've built since 2007. If they think it's solid enough, and with the way Dayton and JJ do what they think is right, I could see it happening if Robert is there.
It's just so tough to know what they'd do. I also go back and forth on it. But I bet if you got some truth serum in them, they'd say they hope he goes before they have the chance to pick him.
Congrats on the one year anniversary bruh. Keep up the outstanding work.
Thank you so much!
Great article and great first year Lesky! I appreciate all the work you put into this - well earned amigo!
Thank you!
Congratulations on a year David. I look forward to opening my inbox every morning, as I am hoping you are there. I sure hope they get something worked out soon,but I am afraid the season is going to start a little late. Looking forward to year 2!!!!!
I’m still holding out hope for 3/31 opening day. Tomorrow may kill that hope. We’ll see…