I agree with everything you wrote. I had chronic shoulder separations when I was younger resulting first from a car accident and then from athletic reinjury. I am 💯 certain this affected Vinnie. You can't swing right when every time you swing, you're wondering whether you are going to trigger that feeling. I'm assuming what I felt is similar to what Vinnie was feeling , but its unpredictable and very disconcerting when it happens.
If anything, Vinny should have really had the shoulder surgery after the 21 season when it originally happened instead of waiting for it to come up again this year.
Retrospectively, this is indeed the correct take. Every time you do it, it's easier for it to happen again. I can understand why they didn't after one occurence, but it turned out to not be the right move.
Like this article. I’m a pretty big believer in coming back to the median on things. So I’m all in on Bobby and Vinny actually being better next year. I can totally see it. I’m not as high on Massey as some other people and that’s ok. Even his expected number weren’t very good. I’m not saying get rid of him or anything, I’m just saying stop the nonsense of him batting 3rd. Lol. He’s a bottom of the order guy until proven otherwise. Time to treat it that way.
My only real issue with the luck argument….and keep in mind I totally believe in it…is how it is used as a crutch a lot of times. Just because you were unlucky this year….doesn’t mean they were any good. And I don’t think anyone in the FO has used that really. It’s just like when everything goes right…..you probably aren’t as good it just worked out that year for whatever reason. They are due for some positive regression in general. I do think that. Maybe it swings wildly the other way and they improve 30 games. Doubt it yet but who knows.
In their defense, he was actually hitting the ball with authority and they were without a lot of options for much of the time he was near the top of the lineup. And when he started to struggle, he was back at the bottom. If he's hitting sixth through ninth with his defense and 15-20 home run pop, he's an asset.
I don't think they'll swing that far the other way, but I do think they had their share of bad luck. Even looking at the six above, three are legitimate core pieces and three are role players at best. When your lucky guys are guys who should be getting 200-250 plate appearances and the unlucky are guys getting 550-650, I'll take that for sure. And I honestly didn't go into this expecting it to shake out that way.
Yeah I mean it’s not Massey’s fault. They didn’t have a lot of other options. But I do agree with your take that if he is hitting in the top half of the lineup you have some problems somewhere else. I think they can win with him playing second and if he’s in the 7-9 slots…you’ve probably got a pretty decent lineup. All that is assuming he doesn’t take another step forward which is possible.
Maybe it’s another article coming. But I’m under the assumption ALL the pitchers were unlucky this year.
There were some lucky ones, but yeah, it wouldn't be nearly as interesting and, honestly, might seem homerish. Because yep, lots of bad luck. This started as looking at pitchers and then I was like, 'well that's boring, they all stink and they all were a little unlucky at least.
The only one I really want to hear about is Ragans. Just tell me he wasn’t lucky and all good. I mean, my only concern with him is injury…and nothing you can do about that. If it happens it happens.
I just assume the rest aren’t any good even if unlucky. Lol.
Massey is a vacuum at second base. The best defensive play I saw last year for the Royals was the diving stop by Massey going right, the flip to BWJ, and BWJ throwing to first!!!
Massey MIGHT make a utility guy (except for the fact he can’t play 3rd or SS) the old adage is eventually you are what the back of your card says you are. Massey hasn’t had enough ABs to say that but he is heading there quickly. I would concede an average defensive 2nd baseman but in todays game your 2nd baseman has to put up decent offensive numbers
I was reading this article fully expecting Freddy Fermin to be one of the lucky bats, given his age and minor league production. If what we saw from Freddy was close to what he *is* as a player, is that good enough for the Royals in a rebuilding 2024?
I expected him to be on the lucky list too, but he had a .333 wOBA and a .332 xwOBA. His average and slugging percentage were right within range too. He hit basically exactly as well as he "should" have. And yeah, that's certainly enough.
Knowing that outfield is a position I believe the Royals will make every effort to improve their starting lineup, I believe Dairon Blanco has done enough to be our 4th outfielder. Giving the center fielder a day off, pinch running, defensive replacement (for the eventual starting outfielder brought in from outside the organization that most likely isn't a defensive wizard) and bunting (preferably late inning when needed in a 1 run game) I think he has the skills to be a valuable bench player with the glove and bat.
I think Blanco can carve out a nice half-decade as a reserve outfielder for sure. He's everything you want. I was starting to wonder if he should be the center fielder over Isbel, though, and I'm just not so sure of that when seeing the expected stats and taking into account the fact that his usage was a lot more geared to only spots where he'd be in the best position to succeed.
David, I found this article very interesting, but I have two pet peeves with the Royals hitters. First, too many looking at strike 3 and Nick is one of the worst. Choke up on the bat and cut down on the big swing and try to make contact! Second, I would have the Royals visual department come up with a measurement device to time bat speed. During spring training have the guys with one standard deviation below the mean bat speed start choking up on the bat at all times! No bat speed, no catching +95 mph fastballs and waiting a little later to hit the breaking stuff!!!
This was great! I can't help but like Massey, but I still find myself going back on forth. Hope he can improve and stick at the bottom of the order like you said. Loftin's batted ball numbers are interesting to me. Do you know what his AAA numbers looked like? I just remember some doubles and that near homer in his first game. I thought his power had improved the last few years, and I really like his swing and approach. I can definitely understand he may not have a high ceiling, but that was a bit depressing for me lol. Our farm system is so void of impact, I was really hoping Loftin could at least be a good utility/solid everyday player..here's to hoping for more trades!
I don't think Loftin is someone you just assume can't be better, but he was definitely lucky in a small sample this season. I think he was hitting the ball a bit harder in AAA, but the fringy power will likely keep him in a utility role if he can't add a bit to that because I'm not entirely sure he's a second baseman long term.
If Bobby and Vinnie have big improvements and Loftin and Pratto are worse, I’ll take that trade off.
100%. I found myself pretty excited that the unlucky guys were core guys and the lucky guys were extras.
I agree with everything you wrote. I had chronic shoulder separations when I was younger resulting first from a car accident and then from athletic reinjury. I am 💯 certain this affected Vinnie. You can't swing right when every time you swing, you're wondering whether you are going to trigger that feeling. I'm assuming what I felt is similar to what Vinnie was feeling , but its unpredictable and very disconcerting when it happens.
Hell, I've never had a serious shoulder injury but I feel like even when it's just sore it impacts my every move, so I get it.
The good news is that a repair surgery completely fixed it and that was nearlt 35 years ago. So with any luck, Vinnie should be 100%.
You, Vinnie and Josh Jung!
If anything, Vinny should have really had the shoulder surgery after the 21 season when it originally happened instead of waiting for it to come up again this year.
I don't think I blame him necessarily. It's not like he just made that call without talking to any doctors.
Retrospectively, this is indeed the correct take. Every time you do it, it's easier for it to happen again. I can understand why they didn't after one occurence, but it turned out to not be the right move.
The one and only time I will ever be mentioned in that company. Thanks David!
Like this article. I’m a pretty big believer in coming back to the median on things. So I’m all in on Bobby and Vinny actually being better next year. I can totally see it. I’m not as high on Massey as some other people and that’s ok. Even his expected number weren’t very good. I’m not saying get rid of him or anything, I’m just saying stop the nonsense of him batting 3rd. Lol. He’s a bottom of the order guy until proven otherwise. Time to treat it that way.
My only real issue with the luck argument….and keep in mind I totally believe in it…is how it is used as a crutch a lot of times. Just because you were unlucky this year….doesn’t mean they were any good. And I don’t think anyone in the FO has used that really. It’s just like when everything goes right…..you probably aren’t as good it just worked out that year for whatever reason. They are due for some positive regression in general. I do think that. Maybe it swings wildly the other way and they improve 30 games. Doubt it yet but who knows.
In their defense, he was actually hitting the ball with authority and they were without a lot of options for much of the time he was near the top of the lineup. And when he started to struggle, he was back at the bottom. If he's hitting sixth through ninth with his defense and 15-20 home run pop, he's an asset.
I don't think they'll swing that far the other way, but I do think they had their share of bad luck. Even looking at the six above, three are legitimate core pieces and three are role players at best. When your lucky guys are guys who should be getting 200-250 plate appearances and the unlucky are guys getting 550-650, I'll take that for sure. And I honestly didn't go into this expecting it to shake out that way.
Yeah I mean it’s not Massey’s fault. They didn’t have a lot of other options. But I do agree with your take that if he is hitting in the top half of the lineup you have some problems somewhere else. I think they can win with him playing second and if he’s in the 7-9 slots…you’ve probably got a pretty decent lineup. All that is assuming he doesn’t take another step forward which is possible.
Maybe it’s another article coming. But I’m under the assumption ALL the pitchers were unlucky this year.
There were some lucky ones, but yeah, it wouldn't be nearly as interesting and, honestly, might seem homerish. Because yep, lots of bad luck. This started as looking at pitchers and then I was like, 'well that's boring, they all stink and they all were a little unlucky at least.
The only one I really want to hear about is Ragans. Just tell me he wasn’t lucky and all good. I mean, my only concern with him is injury…and nothing you can do about that. If it happens it happens.
I just assume the rest aren’t any good even if unlucky. Lol.
Just by ERA, he was actually slightly unlucky. So that's a good thing.
Massey is a vacuum at second base. The best defensive play I saw last year for the Royals was the diving stop by Massey going right, the flip to BWJ, and BWJ throwing to first!!!
Massey MIGHT make a utility guy (except for the fact he can’t play 3rd or SS) the old adage is eventually you are what the back of your card says you are. Massey hasn’t had enough ABs to say that but he is heading there quickly. I would concede an average defensive 2nd baseman but in todays game your 2nd baseman has to put up decent offensive numbers
I’m hoping that Vinnie is going to come back healthy but when I watch that violent swing of his I wonder if this won’t be a recurring injury.
It may be, but I haven’t talked to anyone who believes it will be after the surgery.
I was reading this article fully expecting Freddy Fermin to be one of the lucky bats, given his age and minor league production. If what we saw from Freddy was close to what he *is* as a player, is that good enough for the Royals in a rebuilding 2024?
I expected him to be on the lucky list too, but he had a .333 wOBA and a .332 xwOBA. His average and slugging percentage were right within range too. He hit basically exactly as well as he "should" have. And yeah, that's certainly enough.
Knowing that outfield is a position I believe the Royals will make every effort to improve their starting lineup, I believe Dairon Blanco has done enough to be our 4th outfielder. Giving the center fielder a day off, pinch running, defensive replacement (for the eventual starting outfielder brought in from outside the organization that most likely isn't a defensive wizard) and bunting (preferably late inning when needed in a 1 run game) I think he has the skills to be a valuable bench player with the glove and bat.
I think Blanco can carve out a nice half-decade as a reserve outfielder for sure. He's everything you want. I was starting to wonder if he should be the center fielder over Isbel, though, and I'm just not so sure of that when seeing the expected stats and taking into account the fact that his usage was a lot more geared to only spots where he'd be in the best position to succeed.
Blanco should compete with Isbel at CF or platoon them!
David, I found this article very interesting, but I have two pet peeves with the Royals hitters. First, too many looking at strike 3 and Nick is one of the worst. Choke up on the bat and cut down on the big swing and try to make contact! Second, I would have the Royals visual department come up with a measurement device to time bat speed. During spring training have the guys with one standard deviation below the mean bat speed start choking up on the bat at all times! No bat speed, no catching +95 mph fastballs and waiting a little later to hit the breaking stuff!!!
Still think Massey belongs
This was great! I can't help but like Massey, but I still find myself going back on forth. Hope he can improve and stick at the bottom of the order like you said. Loftin's batted ball numbers are interesting to me. Do you know what his AAA numbers looked like? I just remember some doubles and that near homer in his first game. I thought his power had improved the last few years, and I really like his swing and approach. I can definitely understand he may not have a high ceiling, but that was a bit depressing for me lol. Our farm system is so void of impact, I was really hoping Loftin could at least be a good utility/solid everyday player..here's to hoping for more trades!
I don't think Loftin is someone you just assume can't be better, but he was definitely lucky in a small sample this season. I think he was hitting the ball a bit harder in AAA, but the fringy power will likely keep him in a utility role if he can't add a bit to that because I'm not entirely sure he's a second baseman long term.
Yeah, makes sense. It really feels like one of Massey/Garcia/Loftin is included in a trade at some point..