I am doing my best to like the enthusiasm and well thought out detail of this article, but am having trouble overcoming my case of "hold on to them itis." I am so (and probably overly) enamored with our current crop of top prospects, that it makes me nauseous to think of moving any of them. My preference is to make room for all of our top guys, position players (including Mondesi and MJ) and pitchers, and take the time we need to let them settle in. Then, if it looks like a top pitcher or position player would put us over the top, then hopefully get them as a free agent (it is only money, and not even mine :)) or, if we have to, endure the pain of giving up a top prospect, but from a position where we have done more to prove that we really do not need them. I know we talk about positions of need and positions of excess - but I still prefer (and it will be interesting to see where JJ comes out) that we take the time to check out all of our shiny new toys before we think of trading any of them away. So, based on my admittedly conservative approach to this, I will probably more enjoy your "musical chairs" article about how we think each top prospect will best fit into our next championship core. For example, who will provide better infield defense - Witt/Nicky/Mondi, or Witt/Nicky/Whit?
Short of Alcantara, I'm not sure any of the above trades would require any of the big three hitting prospects. I guess maybe Luis Castillo, but that's iffy too. They would require some of the pitching prospects, but even the most conservative would have to agree they'll need to make a move there to free up SOME space. Now, if you're including Mondesi, I think yeah, he might be a part of a couple of these, but also let's not forget that he has two years left before free agency and has a .293 OBP since 2018 at a position where the Royals have incredible depth.
I hope in upcoming articles we will look at who our top prospects are and where they best fit and whether there will be any leftovers to trade. I love how the Rays were able to trade Willy Adames (and, I would assume, get a great haul for him) because they legitimately had someone even better, Wander Franko, who was ready to come up - and yes, in a situation like that, it would have made no sense to just leave one of them on the bench or in the minor leagues. So, if we are wise in realizing and holding onto our best players (position players and pitchers) - and to have enough quality depth (as I agree with your article yesterday that getting rid of negative WAR starters is always a good thing if possible), whether through standing pat or through trades - then I am all for it. My concern is that the Royals take the time to find out who our best pieces are, and not get all excited about pulling the trigger for the last piece or two before then. If you have a "boom or bust" article, where we try our best to guess or find out who our Wander Franco's (position players and pitchers) will be, I think that would be interesting. But, before we take the time to find out, and knowing the odds that some of the expected Booms (Singer, Kowar, Lynch, Witt,MJ,Pratto?) will be busts, is it not best to give them time and find out what is the cream that rises to the top, knowing that it took Hosmer, Moose and Cain awhile to prove it?
I'll definitely look at how it all fits together throughout the offseason. We have plenty of time to get to all of that. There are positives and negatives of waiting to find out who is good and who isn't. The positive is you definitely don't trade the wrong guy. But the negative is that you lose out on chances to trade guys before their value decreases. It's a big time balancing act and one that is why the guys in the front office make the big bucks. I think you have to trust in your internal evaluators to know that you're making the right choice in who gets moved while understanding that you might end up wrong. As long as you bring back good players in deals, though, it works out in the end.
What about Cody Bellenger? He’s has 2 arb years left if I’m reading correct. If he has a poor postseason, I could see them moving on and he could be a resurrection corner outfield bat for us.
I almost included Cody Bellinger to this list, but I just can’t see the Royals taking on one of the biggest single-season salaries in franchise history for a player coming off a season like he had.
Just a question David, that has nothing to do wit today's post, well maybe a little. Are the winter meetings going to be in person or virtual again this year?
Personally, I really want to see the benefactors of the new minor league hitting approach at the major league level before dealing any of them. If it is like before, up and down a few times before figuring things out or if they will actually hit the ground running. Just thinking out loud, who was the last hot prospect to come up and hit the ground running for the Royals? Salvador Perez? And that's if you called him a hot prospect.
I would say Salvy was sort of a hot prospect. The organization believed in him a lot more than the rankings. but yeah, he might be the last other than, ironically Ryan O'Hearn. That does probably point to a bigger issue that they didn't have many actually even make it up, but that's another story that appears to be behind them.
Which is why I am anxious to see the new wave of tutelage hit the majors to see how ther perform. If they hit the ground running, it will definitely give me hope future prospects can do the same thing.
I think the overall lack of a sustained, contending, over-.500 team has really clouded our perception of how often young players come to the major leagues, excel right away and never have any problems.
Your Juan Sotos, Bryce Harpers, Ronald Acunas and Wander Francos of the world are the exception, not the rule. I think criticism of the Royals' ability to develop good players is warranted. But they aren't the only team that has to send guys down a couple of times before everything clicks.
And I am hoping our high draft picks Witt, Prato, and Melendez are going to hit the ground running under the new tutelage. 10 years is too long to go without at least one other top prospect succeeding early. The alternate sight and new approach got great reviews. I hope 2022 is the beginning of that payoff.
The Royals put some good lineups on the field between 1973-1980 because of great trades. Star players like Hal McRae, John Mayberry and Amos Otis all came in deals. They even did a fair job of developing starting pitchers. But that was a long time ago, before free agency, and less top talent slips through the cracks. Since I don't see the Royals contending until 2024 at the earliest, I see their biggest needs as a frontline starter to anchor the rotation and a hitter that opponents actually fear. I'm also hoping that by 2024, the Royals will have a lineup better at drawing walks, getting on base, more selective and able to hit in the clutch.
What do you think the better/smarter option would be for the royals: Being aggressive and getting one or more of the players you listed OR playing the long game and seeing how the big 3 hitting prospects produce, if Lopez was legit or Mondesi can figure it out, and just to see how all the pitching prospects shake out?
As far as the big three hitting prospects, I'd assume all but Alcantara could be had without them, so it's not really a choice that needs to be made with those above. But that said, if I had to pick between moving one for a known commodity and riding it out with all three, I'd probably ride with all three. It's a risk because right now, the value is as high as it's ever been for all of them (though BWJ isn't getting traded no matter what) and it could drop with a season of adjustments in the big leagues, but I think the ceiling is high enough that I'd personally just stick with them. But there are so many pitchers that I think it's wise to move a couple of them to clear the logjam a bit and help the big league team.
I am doing my best to like the enthusiasm and well thought out detail of this article, but am having trouble overcoming my case of "hold on to them itis." I am so (and probably overly) enamored with our current crop of top prospects, that it makes me nauseous to think of moving any of them. My preference is to make room for all of our top guys, position players (including Mondesi and MJ) and pitchers, and take the time we need to let them settle in. Then, if it looks like a top pitcher or position player would put us over the top, then hopefully get them as a free agent (it is only money, and not even mine :)) or, if we have to, endure the pain of giving up a top prospect, but from a position where we have done more to prove that we really do not need them. I know we talk about positions of need and positions of excess - but I still prefer (and it will be interesting to see where JJ comes out) that we take the time to check out all of our shiny new toys before we think of trading any of them away. So, based on my admittedly conservative approach to this, I will probably more enjoy your "musical chairs" article about how we think each top prospect will best fit into our next championship core. For example, who will provide better infield defense - Witt/Nicky/Mondi, or Witt/Nicky/Whit?
Short of Alcantara, I'm not sure any of the above trades would require any of the big three hitting prospects. I guess maybe Luis Castillo, but that's iffy too. They would require some of the pitching prospects, but even the most conservative would have to agree they'll need to make a move there to free up SOME space. Now, if you're including Mondesi, I think yeah, he might be a part of a couple of these, but also let's not forget that he has two years left before free agency and has a .293 OBP since 2018 at a position where the Royals have incredible depth.
I hope in upcoming articles we will look at who our top prospects are and where they best fit and whether there will be any leftovers to trade. I love how the Rays were able to trade Willy Adames (and, I would assume, get a great haul for him) because they legitimately had someone even better, Wander Franko, who was ready to come up - and yes, in a situation like that, it would have made no sense to just leave one of them on the bench or in the minor leagues. So, if we are wise in realizing and holding onto our best players (position players and pitchers) - and to have enough quality depth (as I agree with your article yesterday that getting rid of negative WAR starters is always a good thing if possible), whether through standing pat or through trades - then I am all for it. My concern is that the Royals take the time to find out who our best pieces are, and not get all excited about pulling the trigger for the last piece or two before then. If you have a "boom or bust" article, where we try our best to guess or find out who our Wander Franco's (position players and pitchers) will be, I think that would be interesting. But, before we take the time to find out, and knowing the odds that some of the expected Booms (Singer, Kowar, Lynch, Witt,MJ,Pratto?) will be busts, is it not best to give them time and find out what is the cream that rises to the top, knowing that it took Hosmer, Moose and Cain awhile to prove it?
I'll definitely look at how it all fits together throughout the offseason. We have plenty of time to get to all of that. There are positives and negatives of waiting to find out who is good and who isn't. The positive is you definitely don't trade the wrong guy. But the negative is that you lose out on chances to trade guys before their value decreases. It's a big time balancing act and one that is why the guys in the front office make the big bucks. I think you have to trust in your internal evaluators to know that you're making the right choice in who gets moved while understanding that you might end up wrong. As long as you bring back good players in deals, though, it works out in the end.
What about Cody Bellenger? He’s has 2 arb years left if I’m reading correct. If he has a poor postseason, I could see them moving on and he could be a resurrection corner outfield bat for us.
This is at the end of the article:
I almost included Cody Bellinger to this list, but I just can’t see the Royals taking on one of the biggest single-season salaries in franchise history for a player coming off a season like he had.
Just a question David, that has nothing to do wit today's post, well maybe a little. Are the winter meetings going to be in person or virtual again this year?
As far as I know, they're planning for in person. That could change, obviously, but I *think* they'll all be together.
Personally, I really want to see the benefactors of the new minor league hitting approach at the major league level before dealing any of them. If it is like before, up and down a few times before figuring things out or if they will actually hit the ground running. Just thinking out loud, who was the last hot prospect to come up and hit the ground running for the Royals? Salvador Perez? And that's if you called him a hot prospect.
I would say Salvy was sort of a hot prospect. The organization believed in him a lot more than the rankings. but yeah, he might be the last other than, ironically Ryan O'Hearn. That does probably point to a bigger issue that they didn't have many actually even make it up, but that's another story that appears to be behind them.
Which is why I am anxious to see the new wave of tutelage hit the majors to see how ther perform. If they hit the ground running, it will definitely give me hope future prospects can do the same thing.
I think the overall lack of a sustained, contending, over-.500 team has really clouded our perception of how often young players come to the major leagues, excel right away and never have any problems.
Your Juan Sotos, Bryce Harpers, Ronald Acunas and Wander Francos of the world are the exception, not the rule. I think criticism of the Royals' ability to develop good players is warranted. But they aren't the only team that has to send guys down a couple of times before everything clicks.
And I am hoping our high draft picks Witt, Prato, and Melendez are going to hit the ground running under the new tutelage. 10 years is too long to go without at least one other top prospect succeeding early. The alternate sight and new approach got great reviews. I hope 2022 is the beginning of that payoff.
I'm going to once again advocate for my (non-arbitration) target: Cristian Pache.
I want him.
Pache was the guy I picked for ROY over on BP, so I'm obviously with you there. I also was very wrong, but I'm so used to that anyway.
The Royals put some good lineups on the field between 1973-1980 because of great trades. Star players like Hal McRae, John Mayberry and Amos Otis all came in deals. They even did a fair job of developing starting pitchers. But that was a long time ago, before free agency, and less top talent slips through the cracks. Since I don't see the Royals contending until 2024 at the earliest, I see their biggest needs as a frontline starter to anchor the rotation and a hitter that opponents actually fear. I'm also hoping that by 2024, the Royals will have a lineup better at drawing walks, getting on base, more selective and able to hit in the clutch.
What do you think the better/smarter option would be for the royals: Being aggressive and getting one or more of the players you listed OR playing the long game and seeing how the big 3 hitting prospects produce, if Lopez was legit or Mondesi can figure it out, and just to see how all the pitching prospects shake out?
As far as the big three hitting prospects, I'd assume all but Alcantara could be had without them, so it's not really a choice that needs to be made with those above. But that said, if I had to pick between moving one for a known commodity and riding it out with all three, I'd probably ride with all three. It's a risk because right now, the value is as high as it's ever been for all of them (though BWJ isn't getting traded no matter what) and it could drop with a season of adjustments in the big leagues, but I think the ceiling is high enough that I'd personally just stick with them. But there are so many pitchers that I think it's wise to move a couple of them to clear the logjam a bit and help the big league team.
I think a combination of Jon Heasley & Ben Hernandez would get us Montas. He would be a great #1 in Kauffman.
Maybe Jon Heasley and Alec Marsh would get the deal done. I do not want to lose Zerpa or Bowlan.