I think they'll get a shiny toy in a trade. There just isn't much there in free agency. Though I think if they're getting one of the top starters, it's Sonny Gray.
I’d take Lugo, Montas, Lauer, and Pagan in a heartbeat. Would Montas and Lauer work out? Dunno, but there is talent there. Montas would all be health related I think. Lugo is a guy that can put up a low to mid 4 era for this team for 170 innings. I like it. Make it happen!
I think the fact that they said they want another outfielder means they are trading some people. But I think you’ve mentioned that before. I guess, I’d rather spend every available dollar on pitching this offseason. If they don’t get an outfielder so be it. That can be a next offseason get. If they want to get better faster, its almost got to be pitching, pitching, pitching until they can get some of there own guys from A ball up completely under the new philosophy.
It's just logical. They currently have two center fielders in Isbel and Waters and three corner guys in Melendez, Olivares and Velazquez plus Tyler Gentry lurking. If they're going to add a bat or two and it's likely in the outfield, they're moving guys. I would guess some pitching comes from those trades too. If I had to put the over/under on new pitchers in the organization this winter at 6.5, I'd probably take the over.
Where do you think they need to finish in terms of performance in 2024 in order to avoid the “bad-team tax” for the following offseason? Is showing some progress at 75 wins enough? (I assume no). 85? Or is it effectively impossible given their long history of underperformance?
That's a great question. I'm not sure. Off the top of my head, I'd say mid-70s in wins with locking up Witt and maybe Vinnie as well. If there's a clear upward trajectory along with some pieces locked in for a bit, that probably puts them in a spot where that tax isn't crazy, if it still exists.
I think (as I've mentioned here before) that, for business reasons more than anything, the Royals will be much more aggressive in free agency than you're predicting here.
In the world where Sherman tells JJ to go spend some money like a real major league club so he can convince voters he actually intends to win games, is there any reason why KC is not a player for Blake Snell? You mention the "bad team tax", which is definitely a thing, but it's not like the Cardinals are a good team, or 1 pitcher away.
I strongly believe, even if they don't make a play for a $200 million guy like Snell, they sign someone to fill the James Shields role - someone like Nola or Montgomery, who you expect to be around for a few years at least, to teach the kids how to win.
If the Royals' splashy signing is a 33 year old with a history of injury issues and who has been a full-time starting pitcher for 1 season out of the past 6, they aren't getting their new stadium. I see Lugo as another guy you sign with the intent of flipping at the trade deadline.
Being aggressive and actually getting guys signed are very different. Also, adding six pitchers via free agency is pretty strong. Plus, i think the big move or moves come in a trade anyway.
Some of this is my personal preference, but I wouldn't give Snell what he wants. I think it's a disaster waiting to happen in the hopes of getting one great year here and there. I really do think they'll be hard on Montgomery and Gray and just about anyone else, but I think that Snell is a mistake for whichever team signs him. I also think Nola wants to stay in Philly and it won't matter much because they'll spend whatever they need to spend.
And as for the stadium, I think you get Witt signed long-term and the free agent signings all fall second to that anyway.
I would want to go after Matt Chapman and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. I love Maikel Garcia but his best value is to someone that doesn't already have Bobby Witt Jr playing SS every day. I believe he could be the centerpiece of a trade that brings back some controllable pitching.
I think it's possible they trade Garcia for sure, but I'm not sure I'd give the biggest contract in team history to someone who has hit .226/.322/.420 and hasn't been the elite defender he was a few years ago.
I know pretty close to nothing about the free agent market this year, so I appreciate the education, even if you’re wrong about everything. I remember seeing Montgomery give up 9 hits and 4 runs in 6 innings in the WS and thinking, “He looks like a Royal already.”
He is still under team control, now with the Dodgers. They may end up non-tendering him here in a couple of weeks, which would make him a free agent again, but at this time, he's not a free agent.
I for one love the free agent predictions! Also had to ask if you heard Daniel Mack's interview with Kauffman Corner. He said they are expanding again and hiring 5-6 more analysts! I believe later he talked about having more analysts would give them the ability to be more specialized. Just thought that was super exciting!
I hadn't heard the interview, but I had heard they were bringing in more analysts. That many is great to hear about. I figured it'd be two or three, so five or six is fantastic news.
I was thrilled. Sounded like his plan was to have pro-only analysts and amateur analysts. He didn't get into specifics of course. But I thought he was pretty open and sounded excited about where things were going. If that's paired with development/scouting hires like we're hoping, that's awesome news.
"Which means enjoy him as a Miami Marlin or something." - GOLD!
And, I'm with you on Gurriel. Fingers crossed.
Great article!
Thank you!
hey lesky, how about aroldis chapman, thanks i’ll hang up and listen
I don't think they can trade him for Cole Ragans again.
#CriticalSpirit
You’re probably right, but ugh. Why can’t the Royals have a shiny toy or two for a change?
I think they'll get a shiny toy in a trade. There just isn't much there in free agency. Though I think if they're getting one of the top starters, it's Sonny Gray.
I’d take Lugo, Montas, Lauer, and Pagan in a heartbeat. Would Montas and Lauer work out? Dunno, but there is talent there. Montas would all be health related I think. Lugo is a guy that can put up a low to mid 4 era for this team for 170 innings. I like it. Make it happen!
I put it into the universe. Now they just need to listen.
I think the fact that they said they want another outfielder means they are trading some people. But I think you’ve mentioned that before. I guess, I’d rather spend every available dollar on pitching this offseason. If they don’t get an outfielder so be it. That can be a next offseason get. If they want to get better faster, its almost got to be pitching, pitching, pitching until they can get some of there own guys from A ball up completely under the new philosophy.
It's just logical. They currently have two center fielders in Isbel and Waters and three corner guys in Melendez, Olivares and Velazquez plus Tyler Gentry lurking. If they're going to add a bat or two and it's likely in the outfield, they're moving guys. I would guess some pitching comes from those trades too. If I had to put the over/under on new pitchers in the organization this winter at 6.5, I'd probably take the over.
Where do you think they need to finish in terms of performance in 2024 in order to avoid the “bad-team tax” for the following offseason? Is showing some progress at 75 wins enough? (I assume no). 85? Or is it effectively impossible given their long history of underperformance?
That's a great question. I'm not sure. Off the top of my head, I'd say mid-70s in wins with locking up Witt and maybe Vinnie as well. If there's a clear upward trajectory along with some pieces locked in for a bit, that probably puts them in a spot where that tax isn't crazy, if it still exists.
I think (as I've mentioned here before) that, for business reasons more than anything, the Royals will be much more aggressive in free agency than you're predicting here.
In the world where Sherman tells JJ to go spend some money like a real major league club so he can convince voters he actually intends to win games, is there any reason why KC is not a player for Blake Snell? You mention the "bad team tax", which is definitely a thing, but it's not like the Cardinals are a good team, or 1 pitcher away.
I strongly believe, even if they don't make a play for a $200 million guy like Snell, they sign someone to fill the James Shields role - someone like Nola or Montgomery, who you expect to be around for a few years at least, to teach the kids how to win.
If the Royals' splashy signing is a 33 year old with a history of injury issues and who has been a full-time starting pitcher for 1 season out of the past 6, they aren't getting their new stadium. I see Lugo as another guy you sign with the intent of flipping at the trade deadline.
Being aggressive and actually getting guys signed are very different. Also, adding six pitchers via free agency is pretty strong. Plus, i think the big move or moves come in a trade anyway.
Some of this is my personal preference, but I wouldn't give Snell what he wants. I think it's a disaster waiting to happen in the hopes of getting one great year here and there. I really do think they'll be hard on Montgomery and Gray and just about anyone else, but I think that Snell is a mistake for whichever team signs him. I also think Nola wants to stay in Philly and it won't matter much because they'll spend whatever they need to spend.
And as for the stadium, I think you get Witt signed long-term and the free agent signings all fall second to that anyway.
Agree 100% on Snell. He needs to land on a team that can afford to absorb the $$$ when the rollercoaster ride is going down instead of up.
I would want to go after Matt Chapman and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. I love Maikel Garcia but his best value is to someone that doesn't already have Bobby Witt Jr playing SS every day. I believe he could be the centerpiece of a trade that brings back some controllable pitching.
I think it's possible they trade Garcia for sure, but I'm not sure I'd give the biggest contract in team history to someone who has hit .226/.322/.420 and hasn't been the elite defender he was a few years ago.
I know pretty close to nothing about the free agent market this year, so I appreciate the education, even if you’re wrong about everything. I remember seeing Montgomery give up 9 hits and 4 runs in 6 innings in the WS and thinking, “He looks like a Royal already.”
Is Yarbrough a free agent or is he under contract for 2024
He is still under team control, now with the Dodgers. They may end up non-tendering him here in a couple of weeks, which would make him a free agent again, but at this time, he's not a free agent.
I for one love the free agent predictions! Also had to ask if you heard Daniel Mack's interview with Kauffman Corner. He said they are expanding again and hiring 5-6 more analysts! I believe later he talked about having more analysts would give them the ability to be more specialized. Just thought that was super exciting!
I hadn't heard the interview, but I had heard they were bringing in more analysts. That many is great to hear about. I figured it'd be two or three, so five or six is fantastic news.
I was thrilled. Sounded like his plan was to have pro-only analysts and amateur analysts. He didn't get into specifics of course. But I thought he was pretty open and sounded excited about where things were going. If that's paired with development/scouting hires like we're hoping, that's awesome news.