Offseason To-Do List Can Make or Break This Front Office

There is plenty to do this winter and if JJ Picollo and Co. nail it, things could be very good soon enough. If they don't, well, there are always excellent GM candidates.

Watching the postseason when your favorite team isn’t involved is a bit of a double-edged sword. In some ways, it’s fantastic because, even though it’s been a few years, we know what kind of stress the postseason can bring as a fan. So to get to watch these games and have no real rooting interest in the results is something that honestly can’t be beat. But, on the flip side, it can show just how far away your favorite team is. In the case of us, Royals fans, it’s so easy to see what the Mariners, Guardians, Phillies and Padres did and wonder how exactly our favorite team can get to that point where we’re watching them celebrate again in October.

The easy answer is the obvious one - pitching. But it’s not just that. The Royals have a very nice young nucleus of talent, but they need more. More of what? Just more. More of everything. That means more pitching, yes. But it also means more professional at bats. It means more defense, more speed (okay, they might have enough speed), more awareness, more strong strategy. Again, it’s more everything. So when you break down what the Royals need to do this winter, the short answer is simply “more.” But let’s take a look at some of the most important things on the to-do list this winter and I’ll sprinkle in some things I’ve heard over the last few days.

Hire a Manager

Well duh. When the Royals fired Mike Matheny before he could even go to bed on the final day of the season, they signaled it was time for someone new in the manager’s chair. I wrote about a bunch of candidates on Thursday. But what is it they’re looking for in a manager that’s both out there and that’s different from what they had on the bench in Matheny? I think the role of a manager in 2023 is very different than in 2013 even. Picollo addressed that in his press conference Thursday afternoon. The manager’s job is truly to manage people. There are decisions to be made, yes, but, like it or not, the best organizations make their decisions based on what the data says, not by feel.

I think there are certainly instances where an understanding of the game might indicate that the decision should go against the numbers, but more often than not, there is a data point that informs a manager of his decision. Sometimes the decision from the data isn’t what this player or that player wants to hear. The manager has to communicate in that instance. Sometimes a player just doesn’t understand the decision. The manager has to communicate. I’ve written this before, but the thing I learned the most from getting to be in the clubhouse some during the 2014 and 2015 seasons is the reminder that these are human beings playing baseball. Sometimes someone needs to help manage that.

The candidates we absolutely know about right now are Pedro Grifol, Vance Wilson and Clayton McCullough. McCullough is the current Dodgers first base coach and he did not make my list, which was obviously a mistake on my part. He interviewed for the Mets job before Buck Showalter was hired and they were impressed with him. I spoke with a couple of people who praised his (ready for this?) ability to communicate. It also doesn’t hurt that he comes from the most successful organization in baseball over the last few seasons. And what do we know about Grifol and Wilson? They’re both said to be excellent - wait for it - communicators.

There’s more to it. It’s obviously not that simple. And there are plenty of other candidates who can communicate as well. A willingness to embrace data driven decisions will certainly be important here as well. The name I keep hearing the Royals are enamored with is Matt Quatraro, the Rays bench coach. Don’t be too surprised if you hear his name mentioned very quickly in connection with the job now that the Rays have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Hire Pitching Instruction

Note that I didn’t write a “pitching coach” up there. Going with Matheny was his friend Cal Eldred, which opened up that position as well. And they’re going to hire a pitching coach. But in the list I put out on Friday, I mentioned a couple of candidates could oversee the entire organization and also hire their own pitching coach if they were so inclined. And that’s exactly what I’ve heard from multiple people could be the direction they want to go in.

In Picollo’s press conference on Thursday, he said that Paul Gibson, the Director of Pitching Performance, would stay in his role in charge of minor league development. That raised a lot of eyebrows given how bad the Royals were in the minor leagues this season. I’ll likely get in to those struggles over the next few weeks as we recap the season, but I have heard from multiple sources that while Gibson is going to stay and he is going to be in charge of the minor leagues, the look of the pitching department organizationally could be very different if they’re able to do what they’re at least interested in doing.

What I believe that will look like is someone to oversee pitching in the entire organization, both the majors and minors. But that person will not be the pitching coach. The name I keep hearing is Brian Bannister. We know all about him and what he’s done, so I’ll just say that if the Royals are able to bring on Bannister to lead their organizational pitching philosophy, it would be a home run and maybe makes the rest of what they do irrelevant to whether or not this winter is a success or not.

The vibe I’ve gotten over the last few days is the Royals feel like they’ve done what they need to do in the minors (I don’t agree), but the progression of development hasn’t continued in the big leagues and that’s why Eldred was let go while others have kept their jobs. If that is the case, someone like Bannister leading the overarching philosophy would allow that to at least be tested. And you would assume he and the new manager would be the ones to find a pitching coach that fits the whole philosophy. I keep hearing from people that the lack of cohesiveness throughout the organization is the real problem. I guess we’ll find out, but I would anticipate multiple pitching instruction hires even in addition to someone at the top of the organization and a big league coach.

Build Pitching Depth

As of this particular moment, the Royals have one starter you’d feel comfortable with in a postseason series, Brady Singer. And he is one year removed from pitching to a 4.91 ERA and about six months removed from losing his rotation spot. We certainly can’t discount the possibility that another pitcher takes a jump like Singer did from 2021 to 2022, especially with potential improved instruction throughout the organization and the ability to work with those in charge as opposed to last year because of the lockout.

But even if Daniel Lynch and Jonathan Heasley, let’s say those two for argument’s sake, take that jump, that’s still only three quality starters. Even if you believe wholeheartedly in anyone who you bring in to help your young pitching succeed, they need additional starters. The question is how much money are they willing to spend. For my money, I’d go out and get Carlos Rodon and Chris Bassitt and call it a day. Maybe they could sign someone else for a smaller amount like the White Sox did with Johnny Cueto. Who is that guy? Maybe Zach Eflin? Maybe it’s Joe Ross coming off an injury? I don’t know. It doesn’t matter really.

But they also can trade for someone as well, which will fit in with something I’ll mention down the list a little bit. Something I’ve said from the start is that I would only target pitchers who don’t walk a lot of hitters. Walks were the scourge of this pitching staff, and anyone they bring in needs to be able to turn that around. There are others like Jameson Taillon, Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Gibson and others. Again, I don’t care who they go get, but they need to find depth for the rotation and they need to not be walking guys.

I also wouldn’t have an issue with signing a couple of bullpen arms. You can look at Scott Barlow, Dylan Coleman and Taylor Clarke and think the Royals have a nice start and then hope that you can find a handful of other relievers out of Richard Lovelady, Anthony Misiewicz, Amir Garrett, Jose Cuas, Carlos Hernandez, Brad Keller, Wyatt Mills, Gabe Speier, Max Castillo, etc., but wouldn’t it be easier to spend a little money to bring in a reliable arm or two? Depending on who is handling the pitching staff, maybe you give Michael Fulmer a shot on what shouldn’t be a terribly expensive deal. Maybe it’s Tommy Kahnle or Seth Lugo or whoever. Again, the name isn’t important. I think you have to build some depth on both levels of the pitching staff, no matter how much you like your young pitchers.

Clean the Roster

I actually wrote about this a month ago yesterday, but the roster just doesn’t work. I’m not going to get back into it because nothing has changed, but they just have too many players for too few spots. It’s not a bad problem to have, but, again, it’s still a problem. We talk so often about the Royals having to make a trade that hurts, but we only have one real example to go toward as one they’ve made over the last 15 years, and that was the deal to acquire James Shields and Wade Davis. Of course, they won’t all work out like that, but the most successful organizations that don’t spend big bucks make these trades all the time.

I’m not saying the Royals should approach every player like they’re the Rays, but the Guardians are a pretty great example of locking young talent up early and trading when they need to trade. They traded Corey Kluber. They traded Francisco Lindor. They traded Mike Clevinger and Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco (though he was in the Lindor deal). But they’ve also kept guys. Michael Brantley was with them for 10 seasons. They’ve signed Jose Ramirez twice. They kept Carlos Santana for years. They’ve already locked up Emmanuel Clase from this young core.

But even so, I think there should be an evaluation period by Picollo where he looks at every young player and asks if the Rays or Guardians or Brewers or whoever would consider trading that player. And if the answer is yes, then he should figure out what the market is and reach out to other general managers. There is talent on this roster that can supplement other areas.

I love MJ Melendez. He can work a walk, he has big power and he doesn’t swing and miss as much as you’d probably think. But he’s being forced to learn a new position and hasn’t even been especially great at the position he’s supposed to know. Would the Rays offer him in a deal? I think they would. Maybe he should be a part of a package to bring back pitching. Is Edward Olivares a championship piece or part of a deal to get something back that the Royals really need? I think the Rays would at least find out what the market is.

And those are the decisions that need to be made. And the answer simply can’t be that they aren’t interested in moving any of them. That doesn’t mean they have to make a big trade with one of these guys because the smart play isn’t to trade them for a small return, but if the Royals can figure out a way to get a starter who can actually pitch well for them by trading one of their young hitters, they sort of have to do it. And the beauty of it is, they likely aren’t weakening a strength that much because of all the young hitting they have. Sure I’d prefer it if they dipped into the minors and moved Nick Loftin and Tucker Bradley, but the value doesn’t lie with them.

So figuring out how to make the roster work better is the absolute number one player personnel goal of this team. They need pitching, yes, and that would help them compete in 2023. But they really need to go from a jumbled mess to a well-oiled machine.

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In my opinion, the pitching side is what matters. And it’s kind of all that really matters. And even if they don’t sign a single free agent or trade for a single pitcher (seems pretty unlikely), what makes or breaks Picollo’s tenure is who is hired to handle the pitching throughout the organization. The manager role is important, yes, but the pitching is the most important. If they make the right moves there, I think you can say that you feel good about their ability to develop bats and arms, which is more important than hitting on the right free agent. The road to the postseason might not happen quite as quickly as making smart free agent and trade moves, but they could finally have the sustainability that eluded Dayton Moore.

But if they misfire, well, this regime isn’t going to last long. I don’t think John Sherman needs to see 95 wins in 2023 or anything for these guys to keep their jobs long-term. Heck, I’m not even sure he needs to see 75 wins. But I think he needs to see that they’ve got the proper processes in place that this is the last extended down stretch for the foreseeable future. And if they make that progress, they’ll be given every chance to build a long-term winner. If not, maybe we’re back in this spot next winter talking about which executives could do what this group couldn’t. It’s a very important offseason.