There is plenty to do this winter and if JJ Picollo and Co. nail it, things could be very good soon enough. If they don't, well, there are always excellent GM candidates.
I'd be very surprised if he gets the job, but it's important to remember that being a third base coach has very little connection to managing, especially with the role of the manager today. It's like saying, "No, I don't want hot fudge. It doesn't even taste good on mashed potatoes."
I know the Miami Marlins are looking for contact bats. Olivares fits that. Is there a bat in the low minors (or even high minors) that would also fit that description? If so, maybe we could get Pedro Lopez.
Nick Loftin, Tucker Bradley, Clay Dungan and Maikel Garcia all make contact. I don't think Olivares and Loftin bring back Lopez, but I suppose I could be wrong.
Great article. Maybe there's some metrics that say otherwise, but I didn't see Heasley as a future piece. I think Bubic and Lynch had some great moments and definitely deserve spots in the rotation next year, at least to start. Outfield seems like where we have the most excess, do you think Taylor or Isbel could bring us back a solid number 5 starter?
Thanks, Alex. Yeah, I don't see it with Heasley, but I would see it if he could manipulate his fastball a little better, which is something we don't know if he can be taught or not at this point.
As for Taylor or Isbel, I think at this point, either would bring back similar pitchers to what they already have. Which might not be a bad thing.
Go?od analysis. There sure seems to be a log jam in the outfield and at shortstop. With Salvy's age considered, I would be hesitant to trade MJ, but Pratto and Taylor would be good possibilities. Also, are we sure the Royals won't bring back Mondesi? That would aggravate the log jam at short, at least for the first month or two till he went on the IL. I would just trade or non tender him? When do they have to make the decision to non tender him?
I think they certainly could bring him back, but I keep coming back to the fact that he wasn't with the team, even at home. That doesn't seem like someone who is a part of this organization one way or another. I'm not sure what the exact date for non-tender is this year, but it's usually late November/early December.
He had sex with the cleaning woman on his desk. He had sex with his assistant on the floor of his office while shouting "I'm giving you a raise!" Totally different.
Kevin, I knew that quote even before you credited Costanza. Remember when Mr. Costanza yelled at Steinbrenner for trading Jay Buhner, even though they all thought George was dead at the time. IMO, best show on TV ever!!
I've never forgotten an interview Bannister did, back when he was pitching for the Royals, with Soren and Kurtis. Those two were both just starting to get into analytics and Bannister explained the meaning and importance of several different analytic measures to them.
As soon as the interview was over, Kurtis had the first comment: "I want THAT GUY to be my pitching coach!" Soren fully agreed.
Since then I've always wondered if it might happen.
If you made me pick one name I think will be part of the organization from all the names I've listed, he's the one I'd bet on. But, as always, I'd take the field. Still, I think there's a lot of mutual interest at least.
Two-part question. Who do you think has more trade value right now: Vinnie or Pratto? And if it’s Vinnie, would you consider moving him for pitching? I would love to see Vinnie stay with the team, but this seems like it could be a “trade that hurts” that clears up a positional battle at first.
Vinnie absolutely has more trade value because he's succeeded in the majors, but I doubt they'd trade him. At some point, they need hitters who have done it. And he's done it, albeit in a small sample. He was two PA shy of 300, but round up and get him there and he's tied with Jose Abreu in wRC+ and one point behind Bryce Harper. His OBP is ninth in baseball. And he's one of six with more walks than strikeouts. I don't think you can trade that.
Talk about the Italian Nightmare... trading Vinnie might get JJ run out of town before the ink was dry on the deal!
Realistically, yes, some of the young guns have got to go. As you pointed out, the math doesn't add. And I'm thinking on the pitching and position side.
Yeah, I think if he made that move, he should probably enter witness protection. That's the sort of move a winning GM can make and deal with the heat, but you have to win first.
The ironic thing about the manager search: It sounds like they actually *are* looking for someone identical to the retiree who's hunting deer and tending to the farm down in Georgia.
As I commented above, one has very little to do with the other outside of the fact that they’re both part of a big league coaching staff. That’s not to say Wilson would be guaranteed to be good, but he did some excellent work managing in AA before joining the big league coaching staff.
One thing that no one mentions is that I believe Wilson was also the infield/infield positioning coach. I remember at least twice, infielders (BJW & Lopez) frantically yelling/motioning into the dugout for positioning directives. That along with times he provided NO signal at third base (I rewound the DVR and watched this on numerous occasions) I sincerely think that Wilson is afraid to make any decision. Hopefully his interview is a courtesy only.
Look, I don’t think he’s going to get the job, but two times in the course of 162 games isn’t even remotely noteworthy. And also, I would bet you see that with every team if you watch them as closely as we watch the Royals. I get it. People don’t like Vance because he did a poor job of sending runners home. But I also think his work as third base coach is, once again, not terribly related to how he’d do as a manager.
Good piece. One thing I saw yesterday on MLBTR was arbitration predictions. nontendering Keller, Mondesi, and O'Hearn saves a quick $10mn that can go to an FA. For the rest of it, yes, bringing Banny in at the top but I would look at the whole stack of pitching coaches. Guy at Omaha seems solid, so would keep him, but I'ld build up from the bottom up by poaching rookie league coach from Rays, Marlins, Astros and putting him at A. Poach the best available from A and put him A+ and so on.
On FA pitchers, a 4.50 era from a guy that gets 180 innings would be affordable, perhaps, along with serious BP upgrades. Last, on FAs, there's a number of good SS coming up after the season and I'ld spend the money for the best youngest one. BWJ seems better at 3rd, Nicky maybe a utility man, so splash on a veteran SS that can play D and hit.
Great analysis David. Let's hope a lot of this happens. How would you rate the Royals on International signings? The Astros have excelled at it and as a result, a lot of their roster can't speak English. They sure can pitch and hit, however, and that is what helps. Joel Sherman in the New York Post had a great article about the things Houston does well. JJ should read it and make it part of his playbook going forward. That being said, I'm tired of the Astros! Go Phillies!!!!!
I don't think you can say they've been anything but terrible internationally. They only had seven players even appear in a game this year who they signed internationally - Salvy, Sebastian Rivero, Maikel Garcia, Freddy Fermin, Angel Zerpa and Carlos Hernandez. They have not fared well there at all.
While I think emulating the Astros and their processes is always a good idea (and I promise JJ knows what they're doing), I also think you're probably overstating it a bit. Their regular lineup features two players signed internationally. One of them wasn't signed by them. Their pitching staff is absolutely represented heavily on the international side, though that lends itself back to the question of if the development system is responsible for getting them through the system and into the big league successfully.
Spot on.
No Vance Wilson, he can’t even communicate at 3rd base and has continuously made bad as a base coach
I'd be very surprised if he gets the job, but it's important to remember that being a third base coach has very little connection to managing, especially with the role of the manager today. It's like saying, "No, I don't want hot fudge. It doesn't even taste good on mashed potatoes."
I know the Miami Marlins are looking for contact bats. Olivares fits that. Is there a bat in the low minors (or even high minors) that would also fit that description? If so, maybe we could get Pedro Lopez.
Nick Loftin, Tucker Bradley, Clay Dungan and Maikel Garcia all make contact. I don't think Olivares and Loftin bring back Lopez, but I suppose I could be wrong.
Great article. Maybe there's some metrics that say otherwise, but I didn't see Heasley as a future piece. I think Bubic and Lynch had some great moments and definitely deserve spots in the rotation next year, at least to start. Outfield seems like where we have the most excess, do you think Taylor or Isbel could bring us back a solid number 5 starter?
Thanks, Alex. Yeah, I don't see it with Heasley, but I would see it if he could manipulate his fastball a little better, which is something we don't know if he can be taught or not at this point.
As for Taylor or Isbel, I think at this point, either would bring back similar pitchers to what they already have. Which might not be a bad thing.
Go?od analysis. There sure seems to be a log jam in the outfield and at shortstop. With Salvy's age considered, I would be hesitant to trade MJ, but Pratto and Taylor would be good possibilities. Also, are we sure the Royals won't bring back Mondesi? That would aggravate the log jam at short, at least for the first month or two till he went on the IL. I would just trade or non tender him? When do they have to make the decision to non tender him?
I think they certainly could bring him back, but I keep coming back to the fact that he wasn't with the team, even at home. That doesn't seem like someone who is a part of this organization one way or another. I'm not sure what the exact date for non-tender is this year, but it's usually late November/early December.
Good read. Solution: Sign Judge...move fences in ten to 15 feet and let him hit 80-90 dingers each year. Win home games each night 10-9 or 15-13. ;)
I like your ideas, but I wonder why you stop at Judge? If they sign Judge, deGrom and Rodon, things get a lot easier for them. No half measures!
I just don't trust people if their last name doesn't start with a capital letter. :) I can make exceptions however.
Just think of it as an upside down capital P.
“I think I found a way to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up that much!” - George Costanza, assistant to the traveling secretary
How did I not list Costanza as a potential hire? Big, big mistake on my part.
He would even bring that outstanding secretary he hired. She was so organized.
But would he end up having sex with her on his desk?!?!
Absolutely. But it's worth it.
He had sex with the cleaning woman on his desk. He had sex with his assistant on the floor of his office while shouting "I'm giving you a raise!" Totally different.
Kevin, I knew that quote even before you credited Costanza. Remember when Mr. Costanza yelled at Steinbrenner for trading Jay Buhner, even though they all thought George was dead at the time. IMO, best show on TV ever!!
Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people loved Ken Phelps' bat. They kept saying “Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps."
Sign him up!!
I've never forgotten an interview Bannister did, back when he was pitching for the Royals, with Soren and Kurtis. Those two were both just starting to get into analytics and Bannister explained the meaning and importance of several different analytic measures to them.
As soon as the interview was over, Kurtis had the first comment: "I want THAT GUY to be my pitching coach!" Soren fully agreed.
Since then I've always wondered if it might happen.
If you made me pick one name I think will be part of the organization from all the names I've listed, he's the one I'd bet on. But, as always, I'd take the field. Still, I think there's a lot of mutual interest at least.
Two-part question. Who do you think has more trade value right now: Vinnie or Pratto? And if it’s Vinnie, would you consider moving him for pitching? I would love to see Vinnie stay with the team, but this seems like it could be a “trade that hurts” that clears up a positional battle at first.
Vinnie absolutely has more trade value because he's succeeded in the majors, but I doubt they'd trade him. At some point, they need hitters who have done it. And he's done it, albeit in a small sample. He was two PA shy of 300, but round up and get him there and he's tied with Jose Abreu in wRC+ and one point behind Bryce Harper. His OBP is ninth in baseball. And he's one of six with more walks than strikeouts. I don't think you can trade that.
Talk about the Italian Nightmare... trading Vinnie might get JJ run out of town before the ink was dry on the deal!
Realistically, yes, some of the young guns have got to go. As you pointed out, the math doesn't add. And I'm thinking on the pitching and position side.
Yeah, I think if he made that move, he should probably enter witness protection. That's the sort of move a winning GM can make and deal with the heat, but you have to win first.
The ironic thing about the manager search: It sounds like they actually *are* looking for someone identical to the retiree who's hunting deer and tending to the farm down in Georgia.
I don't think Jeff Foxworthy would be a good manager, but whatever.
I think that Vance Wilson would be a disastrous hire. He killed so many rallies because he never saw a runner he didn't want to send home!! Fire him!!
It's possible to struggle as a 3rd base coach and still be the best option to communicate with and lead today's players.
What Kevin said.
As I commented above, one has very little to do with the other outside of the fact that they’re both part of a big league coaching staff. That’s not to say Wilson would be guaranteed to be good, but he did some excellent work managing in AA before joining the big league coaching staff.
One thing that no one mentions is that I believe Wilson was also the infield/infield positioning coach. I remember at least twice, infielders (BJW & Lopez) frantically yelling/motioning into the dugout for positioning directives. That along with times he provided NO signal at third base (I rewound the DVR and watched this on numerous occasions) I sincerely think that Wilson is afraid to make any decision. Hopefully his interview is a courtesy only.
Look, I don’t think he’s going to get the job, but two times in the course of 162 games isn’t even remotely noteworthy. And also, I would bet you see that with every team if you watch them as closely as we watch the Royals. I get it. People don’t like Vance because he did a poor job of sending runners home. But I also think his work as third base coach is, once again, not terribly related to how he’d do as a manager.
Good piece. One thing I saw yesterday on MLBTR was arbitration predictions. nontendering Keller, Mondesi, and O'Hearn saves a quick $10mn that can go to an FA. For the rest of it, yes, bringing Banny in at the top but I would look at the whole stack of pitching coaches. Guy at Omaha seems solid, so would keep him, but I'ld build up from the bottom up by poaching rookie league coach from Rays, Marlins, Astros and putting him at A. Poach the best available from A and put him A+ and so on.
On FA pitchers, a 4.50 era from a guy that gets 180 innings would be affordable, perhaps, along with serious BP upgrades. Last, on FAs, there's a number of good SS coming up after the season and I'ld spend the money for the best youngest one. BWJ seems better at 3rd, Nicky maybe a utility man, so splash on a veteran SS that can play D and hit.
Great analysis David. Let's hope a lot of this happens. How would you rate the Royals on International signings? The Astros have excelled at it and as a result, a lot of their roster can't speak English. They sure can pitch and hit, however, and that is what helps. Joel Sherman in the New York Post had a great article about the things Houston does well. JJ should read it and make it part of his playbook going forward. That being said, I'm tired of the Astros! Go Phillies!!!!!
I don't think you can say they've been anything but terrible internationally. They only had seven players even appear in a game this year who they signed internationally - Salvy, Sebastian Rivero, Maikel Garcia, Freddy Fermin, Angel Zerpa and Carlos Hernandez. They have not fared well there at all.
While I think emulating the Astros and their processes is always a good idea (and I promise JJ knows what they're doing), I also think you're probably overstating it a bit. Their regular lineup features two players signed internationally. One of them wasn't signed by them. Their pitching staff is absolutely represented heavily on the international side, though that lends itself back to the question of if the development system is responsible for getting them through the system and into the big league successfully.