David, the Royals have given up on the first of the 2018 pitcher drafts in Kowar. The only pitchers have from that draft to have only a scent of success in the majors would be Singer and possibly Lynch. I hope Wright is able to come back in 2025!
I'd say Kris Bubic has had more than a scent of success too. It's easy to forget that he was roughly league average in 2020/2021 before struggling in 2022 and coming back looking sharp in 2023 before the injury.
"Unless you need a roster spot this second, there’s no real reason to non-tender a pre-arbitration eligible player. "
Kinda, it allows you to get a guy off the 40-man roster without exposing him to waivers, then sign them to a minor league deal, like they did with Cox, Hernandez and Porter. If you don't do it now, you'll have to expose him to waivers later.
I thought the Kowar deal was actually pretty good. Risky, yes, but let's be honest, at this point no one has any confidence that Kowar was ever going to be able to put things together for KC. I think even Kowar has lost all confidence in himself as a Royals pitcher. A change of scenery can't hurt him, and might help him. But, I don't think anyone was of the belief any more that Kowar was going to be successful in KC. Given that, we get someone who actually has had some really good success at the Major League level. Someone who absolutely knows how to pitch at this level. Yes, we have to wait a year to see the benefit, and yes, he may not make it back. But, this was definitely worth the risk as we gave up someone we no longer believed in.
Absolutely. You're not getting a sure thing in return for Jackson Kowar, so why not try for someone who, if he makes it back, can actually be a legitimate piece of a rotation for a team that should be expecting to contend?
Upon further reflection...I think Kowar should go to Japan or korea to pitch....i think he needs a complete reset....but man, he could be Garrett Coles doppelganger...until he throws the first pitch... wat a shame.
I had the same idea regarding Woodruff when I read about his situation. From a game theory perspective, these are absolutely the kinds of chances the Royals need to take - not exactly lottery tickets, but medium risk, potentially high return bets.
With the Royals' limited resources, the only way they can ever get to the top of the heap is to get lucky. The skill comes in maximizing the upside and limiting the downside. They got lucky when they dealt Zack to Milwaukee and got the guys who turned out to be the major league versions of Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. They got lucky when they traded for James Shields and got the best relief pitcher in baseball as a bonus. They undoubtedly knew they liked all of those guys and were happy to get them but none was a sure thing. They can't afford to only make deals for sure things, because sure things are too expensive (and aren't ever sure things, anyway).
Even if they do figure out their development, they definitely need to be taking these sorts of risks all the time. It's not often that a guy like Woodruff is available the way he is and, yeah, it's no guarantee, but I would absolutely love to see it.
Thanks for the continued off-season content, David. With the obvious caveat that the entire league is moving slowly with free agency so far, do you think that the Royals may be trying to get a BWJ extension done first? It would make some sense to me since 1) You would then know the numbers to set the rest of your payroll budget, and 2) It could make attracting other free agents slightly easier and without quite as much of a "bad team" tax if they know Bobby is here for awhile. May be nothing there, but curious if you have any thoughts on that? And Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
I'm not really sure one has anything to do with the other. They know what a BWJ extension is likely going to look like and I'm also not so sure there's anyone out there worth more than two or three years anyway and that's when the numbers on the extension would get to the point that they'd impact other moves. Though I do think you're right that signing him up might help lure free agents.
Impressed to see Picollo, a guy who might be on the hot seat, make a long term deal with no short term benefit. He's been good at being transactional!
One weird question... Do these deals have anything to do with the Nicky Lopez deal at the deadline? Like, were they both or was one of them some sort of handshake agreement to be completed after the season? Idk, if there's any benefit to either side to structure it that way.
JJ makes moves and definitely deserves that recognition. But I doubt there's anything to do with the Lopez deal. I'm just not sure why they would have to make some sort of deal at that time. It could be that they discussed Wright (probably not Anderson given his injury at the time) and just got back to it this week.
I will say that as we've removed ourselves from the Lopez deal, it actually makes more sense to me than it did then. They were going to DFA him, so they traded him for another DFA candidate who was cheaper and at least filled a bigger need.
I think trading Kowar was the right decision given where he is at. Two years of Wright is a solid return....that said what a damning indictment of the Royals development system! What a joke, the kid was rushed and frankly was clueless out there on the mound. This team will stall out if it doesn't get the right people in place in the minor system.... I suggest they spend 10 million dollars on personal coaches for every minor leaguer before they sign another free agent who has already played their best baseball.... does anyone track the spending by team on their minor league systems? I remember when the Royals had thier own academy.... I think it produced Frank White and John Wathan... the Royals need to invest big in the minors to get an edge....the edge that they can't get at the big league level anymore....remember 1992 when they had the high payroll in MLB?
I can remember sitting in the lobby of a hotel in Seattle in August 1990 and watching Storm Davis and Mark Davis walk thru...very recent big money free agents acquired by the royals.... they wwre Frontline acquisitions.... I think mark davis was coming off a Cy young win in 89' it was a big...deal.
I can’t agree that he was rushed at all. He made his debut at 24 years old after dominating AAA in a small sample but after being solid in AA and being at the alternate site through 2020.
There wasn’t a person in the world who didn’t believe he was ready when he debuted. It’s easy to say he wasn’t ready in hindsight, but also there have been two full seasons since and he wasn’t ready for those either. Maybe he just isn’t good.
But whether it worked or not doesn't matter....they can't play at that table anymore even if they want to... so need to find another way to compete...the only way I can see forward is investing in the minors?
I wrote Friday about a lot of the changes on the pitching side and the results that have come from it. It’s not like they’re doing what they did for years under Dayton Moore and just hoped it would get better.
Its a results based buisness... and I am waiting patintly for some from this group. But, come on Mr. Sherman throw more money at it! I have heard for 45 years about the Dodgers minor league development system...which just cranks baby! why not replicate it....
They’ve brought in a lot of new names. I don’t know if it’ll work, but I’d say the first year was at least a mild success given the changes made. They need to continue to make jumps.
David, the Royals have given up on the first of the 2018 pitcher drafts in Kowar. The only pitchers have from that draft to have only a scent of success in the majors would be Singer and possibly Lynch. I hope Wright is able to come back in 2025!
I'd say Kris Bubic has had more than a scent of success too. It's easy to forget that he was roughly league average in 2020/2021 before struggling in 2022 and coming back looking sharp in 2023 before the injury.
"Unless you need a roster spot this second, there’s no real reason to non-tender a pre-arbitration eligible player. "
Kinda, it allows you to get a guy off the 40-man roster without exposing him to waivers, then sign them to a minor league deal, like they did with Cox, Hernandez and Porter. If you don't do it now, you'll have to expose him to waivers later.
That's fair. But I also can't really envision many guys who the Royals would want to cut with a mad dash for someone else to pick them up.
I thought the Kowar deal was actually pretty good. Risky, yes, but let's be honest, at this point no one has any confidence that Kowar was ever going to be able to put things together for KC. I think even Kowar has lost all confidence in himself as a Royals pitcher. A change of scenery can't hurt him, and might help him. But, I don't think anyone was of the belief any more that Kowar was going to be successful in KC. Given that, we get someone who actually has had some really good success at the Major League level. Someone who absolutely knows how to pitch at this level. Yes, we have to wait a year to see the benefit, and yes, he may not make it back. But, this was definitely worth the risk as we gave up someone we no longer believed in.
Absolutely. You're not getting a sure thing in return for Jackson Kowar, so why not try for someone who, if he makes it back, can actually be a legitimate piece of a rotation for a team that should be expecting to contend?
Upon further reflection...I think Kowar should go to Japan or korea to pitch....i think he needs a complete reset....but man, he could be Garrett Coles doppelganger...until he throws the first pitch... wat a shame.
Decent so far, but still waiting for something more substantial. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours, David.
There's been basically one substantial move in all of baseball. Every fanbase but the Phillies are waiting for that.
I had the same idea regarding Woodruff when I read about his situation. From a game theory perspective, these are absolutely the kinds of chances the Royals need to take - not exactly lottery tickets, but medium risk, potentially high return bets.
With the Royals' limited resources, the only way they can ever get to the top of the heap is to get lucky. The skill comes in maximizing the upside and limiting the downside. They got lucky when they dealt Zack to Milwaukee and got the guys who turned out to be the major league versions of Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. They got lucky when they traded for James Shields and got the best relief pitcher in baseball as a bonus. They undoubtedly knew they liked all of those guys and were happy to get them but none was a sure thing. They can't afford to only make deals for sure things, because sure things are too expensive (and aren't ever sure things, anyway).
Even if they do figure out their development, they definitely need to be taking these sorts of risks all the time. It's not often that a guy like Woodruff is available the way he is and, yeah, it's no guarantee, but I would absolutely love to see it.
Thanks for the continued off-season content, David. With the obvious caveat that the entire league is moving slowly with free agency so far, do you think that the Royals may be trying to get a BWJ extension done first? It would make some sense to me since 1) You would then know the numbers to set the rest of your payroll budget, and 2) It could make attracting other free agents slightly easier and without quite as much of a "bad team" tax if they know Bobby is here for awhile. May be nothing there, but curious if you have any thoughts on that? And Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
I'm not really sure one has anything to do with the other. They know what a BWJ extension is likely going to look like and I'm also not so sure there's anyone out there worth more than two or three years anyway and that's when the numbers on the extension would get to the point that they'd impact other moves. Though I do think you're right that signing him up might help lure free agents.
Impressed to see Picollo, a guy who might be on the hot seat, make a long term deal with no short term benefit. He's been good at being transactional!
One weird question... Do these deals have anything to do with the Nicky Lopez deal at the deadline? Like, were they both or was one of them some sort of handshake agreement to be completed after the season? Idk, if there's any benefit to either side to structure it that way.
JJ makes moves and definitely deserves that recognition. But I doubt there's anything to do with the Lopez deal. I'm just not sure why they would have to make some sort of deal at that time. It could be that they discussed Wright (probably not Anderson given his injury at the time) and just got back to it this week.
I remember him alluding to that. And I remember how mystified we all were at the Lopez deal. I just wondered if maybe these trades helped answer that.
I will say that as we've removed ourselves from the Lopez deal, it actually makes more sense to me than it did then. They were going to DFA him, so they traded him for another DFA candidate who was cheaper and at least filled a bigger need.
Ragans, Woodruff & Wright has a ring to it. I hope they go for it.
Love it!
Surprised to see how little Wright is gonna make. I liked the deal already, but I friggin' love it now.
Keep in mind it’s his first year, coming off a bad year and he won’t pitch. But whatever the reason, he shouldn’t cost a lot more in 2025.
I think trading Kowar was the right decision given where he is at. Two years of Wright is a solid return....that said what a damning indictment of the Royals development system! What a joke, the kid was rushed and frankly was clueless out there on the mound. This team will stall out if it doesn't get the right people in place in the minor system.... I suggest they spend 10 million dollars on personal coaches for every minor leaguer before they sign another free agent who has already played their best baseball.... does anyone track the spending by team on their minor league systems? I remember when the Royals had thier own academy.... I think it produced Frank White and John Wathan... the Royals need to invest big in the minors to get an edge....the edge that they can't get at the big league level anymore....remember 1992 when they had the high payroll in MLB?
Oops..that was 1990
That highest payroll was also something like $26 million. The game is VERY different now in terms of finances.
Ha ha...you could be more than 26 houses in 90' for that money. Point is in those days the royals spent with the big boys...its all relative.
I can remember sitting in the lobby of a hotel in Seattle in August 1990 and watching Storm Davis and Mark Davis walk thru...very recent big money free agents acquired by the royals.... they wwre Frontline acquisitions.... I think mark davis was coming off a Cy young win in 89' it was a big...deal.
It absolutely was. The counterpoint is that it also didn’t work.
I can’t agree that he was rushed at all. He made his debut at 24 years old after dominating AAA in a small sample but after being solid in AA and being at the alternate site through 2020.
Maybe he was not rushed...but he was not ready for the big leagues in my opinion.
There wasn’t a person in the world who didn’t believe he was ready when he debuted. It’s easy to say he wasn’t ready in hindsight, but also there have been two full seasons since and he wasn’t ready for those either. Maybe he just isn’t good.
But whether it worked or not doesn't matter....they can't play at that table anymore even if they want to... so need to find another way to compete...the only way I can see forward is investing in the minors?
I wrote Friday about a lot of the changes on the pitching side and the results that have come from it. It’s not like they’re doing what they did for years under Dayton Moore and just hoped it would get better.
Well said.
Its a results based buisness... and I am waiting patintly for some from this group. But, come on Mr. Sherman throw more money at it! I have heard for 45 years about the Dodgers minor league development system...which just cranks baby! why not replicate it....
They’ve brought in a lot of new names. I don’t know if it’ll work, but I’d say the first year was at least a mild success given the changes made. They need to continue to make jumps.