Perusing the Arbitration Estimates for Potential Royals Acquisitions

MLB Trade Rumors does a great job of estimating arbitration salaries, and it lets people like me dream on the Royals acquiring someone to help.

Every year, Matt Swartz of MLB Trade rumors puts out his arbitration estimates for all players who are eligible for arbitration ahead of the next season. And every year, he absolutely nails it. No, he’s not perfect, but these numbers are amazing in how close they come to the actual numbers. I try to do it myself for the Royals and, while I’m proud of how close I get, I always defer to Swartz’s numbers because, well, they’re better than mine.

With those numbers, we can start to get some ideas of how teams might act. Some teams are simply not going to spend as much money as certain players require. We’ve seen the Royals non-tender players like Richard Lovelady after Tommy John (and then re-signed him to minor league deal) and Maikel Franco after a year that would allow him to ask for way too much in arbitration. It’s just a business decision teams make. So what I like to do every year with this list is look at players who could be traded because of their potentially high salaries and players who could be non-tendered and find some Royals fits.

Trade Candidates

Obviously, the trade candidates are better players because they are worth keeping around, but you have to wonder if their team is willing to move them because of the price. I don’t know how often this happens or how often this works out. For the longest time, I had remembered Ervin Santana as a non-tender candidate the Royals acquired for the 2013 season, but then I realized at some point that the Angels didn’t want to deal with his option, so I guess I was wrong there. Nevertheless, there are a few players who could make a little more money than teams would like to pay for various reasons.

Corbin Burnes ($11.4 million)/Brandon Woodruff ($11 million)

I’m going to lump Burnes and Woodruff together because they’re both at the top of the Brewers rotation. Their situations are pretty similar. Both will be eligible for free agency following the 2024 season. Both are looking at similar arbitration salaries in their penultimate year in the system. And both are excellent. My guess is the Brewers don’t trade either, not at this point anyway, but they could trade one of them. And if they do, the Royals could match up because the Brewers can really develop pitching but boy do they need some young bats.

And the Royals have that. I don’t think they necessarily need an outfielder because their top prospects are almost all outfielders, but they could use a catcher who can hit. The Brewers didn’t get the worst production in the league from their catchers, but they were in the bottom third. So the question becomes if you trade Melendez (and more) for two years of an elite starting pitcher? Make no mistake, these two are elite starting pitchers. Burnes topped 200 innings for the first time last season and Woodruff only threw 153.1, so I suppose you can argue with if Woodruff is worth Melendez, but I think that’s what the cost would be.

But in either of these two pitchers, you’re getting a strikeout rate of 30 percent plus and a walk rate below seven percent. Their numbers aren’t inflated by any weird luck. They are simply two of the best pitchers in baseball on an inning-by-inning basis. And keep in mind, trading for them with two years of control left doesn’t mean the Royals could only have them for two years. It’s a risk, of course, but they could sign long-term. Burnes will be entering his age-28 season and Woodruff his age-30, so you’ve got at least a few years left before real decline should set in for them. I don’t know. Like I said, it’s a big risk, but if you’re going to get a pitcher like that without developing, you’re either paying a big price in free agency or a big price in a trade.

Dinelson Lamet ($4.8 million)

It feels like a million years ago that Lamet finished fourth in the Cy Young vote, but it was in fact just 2020. That was a short season, but he was dominant, posting a 2.09 ERA in 12 starts with tons of strikeouts and limited walks. He hasn’t been able to replicate that and was part of the big Josh Hader trade, heading to Milwaukee in that deal. The Brewers then promptly DFA’d him and the Rockies signed him to work out of their bullpen. He struck out 29 in 20 relief innings and gave up just 14 hits, showing that he could be a quality reliever, at least for a short stint.

At $4.8 million, he’s a non-tender candidate, so maybe it’s not the best idea to trade for him but it also gives the Royals a crack at him and with their payroll so low right now, there’s no real need to worry about overpaying a bit for one year of a reliever before he’s eligible for free agency. I’d rather have him toiling in the bullpen for around $5 million than Brad Keller, for example, at his estimated $7 million. He does walk some hitters, but the stuff is electric. His slider got a 52.3 percent whiff rate in 2022, which was up from 2021’s 42.5 percent, which is still outstanding. His four-seamer gets hit hard and his command can be inconsistent, but maybe with the right coaching staff in place (TBD, obviously), they can get the most out of him. I think he’s worth a flyer for a low-level prospect more than signing some reclamation project.

Eric Lauer ($5.2 million)

Back to the Brewers for Lauer, who has quietly been a lot better than you realize. It’s certainly no lock that they’ll trade either of their two top starters above, but they do have Aaron Ashby, Freddy Peralta and Ethan Small as well, so if they can save $5.2 million, it seems like a decent bet they’ll try to do just that, especially given their track record with finding pitching. Lauer is the type of pitcher who you look at the velocity and the heat maps and you wonder how he gets it done, but his fastball averages around 93 and gets a whiff rate of about 30 percent. That’s quite good. Opponents hit just .193 on the pitch. Why? I honestly don’t know, but it just works.

The return for Lauer wouldn’t be near what it would take to get Woodruff or Burnes, but it also wouldn’t be a low-level prospect or something. He’s a free agents after 2024, so he’s a two-year investment, but given what the Royals have in their rotation and the likely cost to acquire him, I’d make this trade in a heartbeat. If I’m the Brewers, I probably want one of the Royals pitching prospects in a deal because I’d be confident that I can fix them, but they obviously also need bats. Nick Loftin probably isn’t enough, but he could be part of a deal. Again, I’m not here to determine the prospect cost. I just know it wouldn’t take away anyone you’ve grown attached to already in all likelihood and it would make the team better.

Pablo Lopez ($5.6 million)

The rumors have surrounded Lopez for awhile now. The Marlins seem to be another pitching factory, so they can afford to trade guys with two years of team control left, like Lopez. In some ways, he took a step back from his 2021 season with fewer strikeouts and a few more walks, but in other ways, it was a step forward. He made 30+ starts for the first time in his career. He still limited walks and, even though the rate was down, he still struck out enough hitters to be successful. He also has a great changeup, which could be fun to see if he can do what James Shields did in Kansas City and teach the young arms how to throw it.

The Marlins need what the Brewers need - bats. And they’ve already stated that they’re looking for contact-oriented bats. Who is that in the Royals system? Loftin, Maikel Garcia, Tucker Bradley, Clay Dungan and Tyler Gentry all make a lot of contact. At the big league level, Vinnie Pasquantino, Nicky Lopez, Kyle Isbel and Nate Eaton all have pretty low swing-and-miss rates. They’re not trading Pasquantino and I don’t think Lopez moves the needle enough, but there are some options to go get a guy like Lopez who the Marlins likely don’t want to pay. He’s definitely a big-time candidate to go get, assuming the cost isn’t prohibitive.

Teoscar Hernandez ($14.1 million)

I don’t think the Blue Jays would move on Hernandez after yet another excellent offensive season, but their payroll is pretty big and they have to figure out a way to pay Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Plus, Hernandez will be a free agent after 2023. He isn’t a good defender, but he also isn’t totally horrific. It might be more likely that they’d move Lourdes Gurriel, but his estimate is considerably lower and if they’re trying to keep costs in check, Hernandez could become the guy. With just a year left, the cost can’t be too much for him even though he’s a big part of their lineup.

It would be easy to see what the Royals have and wonder why they need an outfielder, but I think there could be a pretty big shuffling of the roster. Plus, who among their current outfield options can you fully trust? Melendez, I think, deserves the benefit of the doubt defensively as he’d never played outfield before, so I’d like to see what he can do with a winter of work, but maybe he gets moved. Can you trust Edward Olivares, who spent a lot of the season on the IL? Drew Waters looked solid and Kyle Isbel was a wizard defensively. Then you’ve got Michael A. Taylor. I just don’t necessarily see a starting outfield that you feel so good about that you ignore the possibility of a guy like Hernandez. Plus, one year is perfect with Tyler Gentry knocking on the door and Gavin Cross likely not too far behind him.

Hunter Renfroe ($11.2 million)

Okay, so maybe this should have been called “Brewers players the Royals should trade for.” Renfroe was acquired by Milwaukee before last season and basically repeated his very good 2021, but was maybe a little better. Renfroe has rated anywhere between average and excellent defensively over the years, but he has legitimate power from the right side and would be a nice fit in a bit of a lefty heavy lineup. The same reasons for being interested in Hernandez apply to Renfroe and he’s also a one-year rental, so he likely wouldn’t be terribly expensive. I think his bat in the middle of the lineup would only be a positive for the Royals.

Non-Tender Candidates to Sign

You sign a non-tendered player because you either believe something happened last season to cause them to struggle or because you know how you can “fix” the player. Can you build a team with other team’s non-tenders? Absolutely not. But sometimes you can find a useful player. The Royals did this with Taylor Clarke last season. He wasn’t great and isn’t a long-term late-inning arm or anything, but he was solid when healthy. These guys seem somewhat likely to get hit with the non-tender, and I think they could help the Royals with what they need heading into 2023.

Brian Anderson ($5.2 million)

Anderson hit .266/.350/.436 from 2018 through 2020 and he dipped a bit in 2021, but still posted a .337 OBP. In the last three seasons of that four-year stretch, he rated very well defensively at third base. Things fell apart a bit in 2022. His offensive numbers dipped again to .222/.311/.346 and his defense didn’t rate well either. So you can look at that and see the salary and think that he’s someone who likely isn’t going to be paid what the arbitration estimates say he’ll be paid.

Here’s what I like. He’s shown an ability to hit the ball very hard when he hits it as hard as he can. He barrels it up more often than the average hitter. And his average exit velocity is better than average. He swings and misses a lot, but he doesn’t chase an extravagant amount. I think that he’s someone who could have more in the tank, though I do wonder why he’s been in decline. For a team that doesn’t have a real third base option in 2023, if they are going to look outside the organization, Anderson could be an interesting buy-low candidate as a non-tendered free agent.

Jeimer Candelario ($7 million)

When the Royals traded Wade Davis to the Cubs and got back Jorge Soler, I kept waiting for the other player in the deal. Would it be Ian Happ? I didn’t know, but the guy I really wanted was Candelario. The track record wasn’t quite as long as Anderson’s, but between 2020 and 2021, Candelario hit .278/.356/.458 in 832 plate appearances. He works walks, he doesn’t strike out a ton and he isn’t truly awful defensively at third. Plus he’s a switch hitter, which is nice. But I don’t know what happened this year. He chased more, he swung and missed more and he didn’t hit the ball as hard.

I don’t love the idea of Candelario if he’s going to cost a bunch of money, but if they could get him for $3 million, I’d much rather have him on the roster than someone like Adalberto Mondesi (who I’ll get to below). Take a shot that you can find the .270/.350/.450 again from him and see if you can help strengthen the middle of a lineup that needs someone else with some experience.

Yonny Chirinos ($1.6 million)

Chirinos had a long road back from injury and ended up throwing seven scoreless innings across two outings. He’s now thrown 18.1 innings since the start of 2020. For an organization like the Rays that always has some serious 40-man roster crunches, Chirinos seems likely to be a casualty. He might be a trade target more than a non-tender, I suppose, but either way, he could easily be available. It’s hard to know what he has, but he’s always done a decent job of limiting runners and I think there’s more strikeout in him, but I guess if the Rays haven’t been able to get it out of him, maybe it’s not there. I don’t know. He seems like an interesting flyer to take on for a team needing pitching basically everywhere.

Erick Fedde ($3.6 million)

I think this is a hard sell as anything more than a very small deal or a minor league deal given how much he’s struggled the last two seasons. He was the first round pick for the Nationals in 2014 and injuries delayed his debut, but it’s been bad basically from the start. Is this worth a shot? His velocity was down in 2022. His curve was less effective in 2022. I wonder if he didn’t have the feel for his changeup because he threw it a lot less even though it was pretty effective in terms of results. This, to me, is the classic buy-low on a one-time well thought of prospect. But if he’s non-tendered, why not bring him in? If you have the right coaching in place (again, we’ll see), maybe someone better than the Nationals coaching staff can get more out of him.

Ryan Yarbrough ($4.2 million)

I don’t think Yarbrough comes in and is the Royals number two starter or anything, but he has a career 5.4 percent walk rate. And he’s shown an ability to work as both a starter and a reliever. He doesn’t have the great stuff you want and he had a 5.11 ERA in 2021 and a 4.50 ERA in 2022, so he isn’t exactly trending in the right direction, but a pitcher who can throw strikes and can eat up a few starts is pretty darn appealing for a team without many options to start games. And again, look at that walk rate. It’s very attractive.

The Royals Dirty Near Dozen

The Royals have 11 arbitration-eligible players with their estimated cost and free agent years in parentheses.

Scott Barlow - $4.9 million (2025)
Kris Bubic - $1.8 million (2027)
Taylor Clarke - $1.5 million (2026)
Amir Garrett - $2.6 million (2024)
Brad Keller - $7 million (2024)
Nicky Lopez - $3.4 million (2026)
Adalberto Mondesi - $3 million (2024)
Ryan O’Hearn - $1.5 million (2025)
Brady Singer - $2.9 million (2027)
Josh Staumont - $1 million (2026)
Luke Weaver - $3 million (2024)

I wrote back in August that I think Brad Keller is a likely non-tender candidate. I’m not sure that many fully agreed at that time, but I think it’s clear now that it’s going to happen. I wondered if he’d ask for even more than the estimate above because he can compare himself to free agents. And he absolutely could. So I don’t think he’s back next season, at least not at that cost and I would wager that he’d be on plenty of lists for other teams as well. Just going down the list, Barlow, Bubic, Clarke, Singer and Staumont are easy tender decisions.

I think Garrett gets tendered at that cost. My guess is Lopez does too, but we’re getting close to the “too expensive” point with him. O’hearn is an easy no for me, but I think we’ll find out how much of his roster spot was Dayton Moore and Mike Matheny driven. I’d guess mostly, if not all, but we’ll see. And Weaver is a super easy no. That just leaves Mondesi. That number of $3 million is basically right on the edge for me. Given that they don’t have anything set at third base (or maybe shortstop if Bobby Witt Jr. slides over), I suppose there’s a place to give Mondesi one more chance.

For me, I’d say no and let him go. At some point, it’s just not worth the roster spot, no matter how long it lasts. He has a career .280 OBP. His career OPS+ of 82 is lower than O’Hearn’s career OPS+. Yes, he provides value on defense and on the bases, but unless he’s fitting as a pure backup, it just doesn’t make sense at any cost. He might pop for another team, but if he does, he does. Like Keller, he can be some other team’s non-tender lottery ticket. It’ll be interesting over the next few weeks to see who ends up a free agent, who gets shopped and who remains with their team.