Luca Tresh is a guy that the Royals may move with Melendez and Perez ahead of him and Carter Jensen behind. Obviously he'd have to be combined with some other prospect(s) to bring back MLB ready talent.
Have you heard anything regarding Mondesi's work ethic? Seems like with a knee, he could already be working on some hitting stuff. I don't ever recall a story with Mondesi similar to Sal or Jorge Soler going down to Miami in the off-season to work with Mike Tosar.
Tresh is definitely a trade candidate. We don't really talk about this side of waiting on a player, but he could go from a secondary piece in a deal to a main piece in a deal if he can continue what he did in 2022 next season. Do you use that trade chip before he becomes as valuable as he can be? I don't know the right answer.
I haven't heard a word about Mondesi's rehab or anything, but keep in mind he spent the 2019/2020 offseason rehabbing. I'm not sure about the next offseason because I just don't remember but he was supposed to spend the winter last year working with Tosar and those guys. Then the lockout happened and he wasn't allowed to have any contact with them. I have never heard anyone with actual knowledge of Mondesi's work question it, but I also haven't heard a lot one way or another, so I guess that's the best answer I can give here.
If the royals move on from Mondesi…I will celebrate. Not because he doesn’t have talent, or maybe he’ll have a career year this year, or whatever reason we want to throw out. I will celebrate because it means the Royals have turned a corner and are not afraid of a player hitting somewhere else. Yes, maybe there is some bad press if that happens, but the reality is he had every shot and sometimes change of scenery is needed for players. Its ok, dont’ be afraid to be wrong, and move on.
I believe that fear was a Dayton thing. I suppose we’ll find out soon if I’m right.
But I do think there’s an argument to keep Mondesi at that price as a dynamic bench piece. I don’t think it means they’re afraid of him succeeding elsewhere. I’d move on, but there are worse things than having a great defensive shortstop with game changing speed on the bench. I do wonder what the speed looks like now, but for $3 million, that’s not much. That said, I don’t think you can keep him AND Lopez as backups.
I'd prefer Mondesi with some pop from both sides of the plate and elite baserunning as the utility infielder at $3m over Nicky at $3.4m. Mondesi and Dozier, in sad ways, might make the best bench players due to having some pop and positional versatility. The Royals problem is that they have treated them as stars or future stars, and neither is.
I wouldn’t say Dozier has ever been treated as a star. He’s been treated as a regular, which I mean I can’t say anything about. I thought he would be very good last year. I was wrong. They were too. Stars don’t sign for $25 million for four years though.
We never know the deals that are offered and not taken.... I'd move Tresh if the offer was good enough, as just about anyone would, but so much of the criticism of trades being made or not made is dependent on the value offered, which as fans, we never know the details of. Also as you mentioned the other day, these we see these guys as players, commodities, when in fact, they are humans living an uncommon life. We generally don't know much about their personalities and problems.
Nice write up. Interesting to see some of those numbers. I know you disagree a bit. But the more I look at this I still come up with Melendez being the one that gets moved. Everyone is very determined that Vinny isn’t getting moved. Which is fine, but one of those are we overvaluing our own guys again here? Because if it isn’t Vinny, Melendez is the next one with build up value right now to move. Couple that with Tresh and Jensen who could easily fill in a couple years down the road. Maybe what I’m saying is I don’t think Pratto has a whole lot of real trade value right now. At least if we are talking a Woodruff or Burnes or Lopez coming back. Maybe there is some disagreement with that but unless you are going to do a package of 4 prospects…its got to be Melendez and that’s ok in my eyes. Not because he isn’t good and could be very good. But because it takes value to get value back…and don’t see that Pratto, Massey, Waters, Loftin, etc have actually built up enough value to be realistic here. Maybe I’m just preparing myself for when people complain if they actually move him….because come on people this is how it works for all other teams. Lol
I don't know why you'd say I disagree. I've written a few times that you have to look at it from the perspective of what other teams would do. And other teams would trade Melendez. I'm not going to love it because I think he can be a difference maker bat, but it's one of those things that you have to trade something to get something.
I think it's hard to say they're overvaluing anyone because we don't know what the plan will be. But I agree that if they're not going to make a quantity over quality swap, Melendez is the guy who probably goes. You're right about Tresh and Jensen and obviously Salvy and the outfield has pieces as well, even though I still believe Melendez can be fine defensively there with some offseason work.
Maybe it wasn’t you then David, my apologies. I can’t remember what I was listening too or reading at the moment now. Maybe it was Royals farm report. But I recall it being about not wanting to move Melendez, Witt Jr, Vinny or Massey. Which is totally fine if that is the route that you go…but nobody is trading with you….so adjust expectations on the adding front if you are looking for a top of the rotation piece. Whatever terrible point I had is now total crap now anyways as our thinking is aligned on this it sounds like. Lol.
Ok, ok, here’s one I know you’ve said since I’m an avid reader. Lol. The roster is broken. I totally agree with that. This roster doesn’t work and I’d say even adding some pitching doesn’t solve the broken roster narrative. But say they add two mid rotation pieces….does that solve the broken roster narrative in your eyes? In mine, I still think you need to move some offensive pieces to help fix the issues of where people are going to play. If they do nothing on offense and run everyone back next year and try to make it fit….but add a couple starting pitchers….do you still feel like we would have the same issues next year?
Adding pitching doesn’t change the fact that they don’t have the right puzzle pieces in place. Some of it is simply moving on from guys like Taylor, Dozier and O’Hearn on the roster and Drew Waters as a center field option helps, buy they still need to find a third baseman (or a shortstop). It’s all fixable, of course, but there’s just work to do.
Good analysis, David, especially possible trade/sign candidates from other teams. I think my dream list would be Burns and Hernandez, but definitely some more under-the-radar guys out there. One thing I would say about Mondesi is I like keeping him until we know what the plan is for SS and 3B next year. If we already know we are going to acquire a 3B, fine, Mondi is expendable. But if we are going into the spring with who we have on the roster now, we should keep him. We know Witt is either SS or 3B, but until we are certain of the other starter, $3M is a low cost for another competitor on the left side. Unless we believe those two positions are set, it looks to me like we'd be rolling into spring with Witt at one position, and Mondi, Lopez, Garcia, Eaton, etc. competing for the other spot, plus back-up.
I go back and forth on Mondesi because $3 million really isn’t much. But also, you’ve got Eaton and Maikel Garcia and still Nicky. It’s just an odd situation.
Thank you for the excellent insight! First, regarding Mondesi. Although the estimated price of $3 million is acceptable, but for how many games? If 125 next year, ok. But 50? Not at all. Plus, recovering from a torn ACL, how much speed does he lose? Can he still cover SS? Considering what both he and Lopez have done in the field, you must go with who plays, not potential and maybe playing time. Maybe non tender, at a reduced salary and prove yourself. If not, time to move on. Or guys he her because of his father? Just a thought.
Before moving any pitcher, I would like to see who is brought in as coach. Remember, Junis and Lopez became successful after they left. Any chance some on the current staff succeed with different tutelage?
Trading MJ in a package deal should get middle of the rotation staff. But then you need to consider who will provide days off for Salvy. Id be happy with the same defensive ability and 60/70٪ of MJ's offensive output. If you keep MJ, there is enough young, quality outfielders that we could package a deal and not be hurt too bad.
Bobby to third and give Franco his shot at SS. Eaton with time could be the answer at third, but he needs more seasoning.
Just my thoughts from a lifelong die hard Royals fan. Can we find the next Busby or AO!
That's the big question on Mondesi. I would hope the training staff and front office knows where he is, but I wonder too. If his speed goes from elite to simply above average, he's cooked in my opinion. I'd bring him back on a minor league deal for sure, but I don't know if he'd do that. It's just an odd situation and kind of bad timing honestly.
I agree about the pitching. I've been saying it for a few weeks now. Some of these guys may stink, but shouldn't we get an idea of what they are with competent instruction before making that final decision? They'll have to move on some, but I will make a point to say that Junis finished the season with a 5.77 ERA in 64 innings after he came back from injury and Lopez had a 6.07 ERA in 2021 and then was kind of middling with the Twins after the trade. They're looked at as the big success stories who left, but neither actually had that much success.
And you're right about MJ. Can Sebastian Rivero hit enough to catch twice a week and not kill the lineup if MJ is gone? I don't know, but I also think if that becomes your biggest worry, you're in great shape, so I don't know that I'd spend that much time worrying too much about it.
I'd rather the royals not trade for a guy who has a high walk rate. We keep doing that and they never improve. Pay a little more and go after someone with a low walk rate. We don't know if a new pitching coach can fix all this
I think you sign Mondesi and hope to catch lightning in a bottle and peddle him at the deadline when we are probably going to be out of it. Mondesi has superstar athletic ability and for a month or two at a time, has looked like he has figured out how to hit. if..... just if.... he can stay healthy for most of a year and stay hot...... I think the chances of that are higher than Nicky hitting .300 again. Nicky is a perfect utility player to me.
He has shown that in spurts, but also I just keep coming back to the whole career. I said this a lot last year, but when a player tells you who he is, we should listen. There's a temptation for sure. And I get it. And I think it's worth the money. I'm just not sure if it's worth the roster spot. To be fair, I'm also not sure it isn't.
Since the 3+ million isn't my money, I'm for it....not a long term solution for sure. If you're a good team with a great starting SS who ends up getting hurt for a lengthy period, Adelberto has a lot of value, for his defense alone, again assuming he's not lost speed and agility. Most guys don't anymore after knee surgery, especially since he's 26-27. Of you cut him loose, you get nothing. World class athletes don't grow on trees. Byron Buxton is set to make 9.1 mil next year with a very similar history. Idk. Is Maikel Garcia the real deal? Decisions..... I tender him and look for trades.
Buxton is the guy who always comes up with Mondesi, but the reality is the only things that are alike are that they're excellent athletes who get hurt. Buxton has hit .258/.316/.558 in 1066 PA the last four years. Mondesi has hit .248/.283/.409 in 866 PA in that time. They both play fantastic defense, but they're not similar. I'm just saying Mondesi is always talked about like he's actually done something, but the reality is that he hasn't. He's shown flashes of doing things, but never consistently enough to matter. I don't think there's necessarily a right answer of what to do, but he has shown himself to be a very good defender and well below average hitter. He might break out at some point, but there's been nothing to lead anyone to believe he's anything more than that.
Luca Tresh is a guy that the Royals may move with Melendez and Perez ahead of him and Carter Jensen behind. Obviously he'd have to be combined with some other prospect(s) to bring back MLB ready talent.
Have you heard anything regarding Mondesi's work ethic? Seems like with a knee, he could already be working on some hitting stuff. I don't ever recall a story with Mondesi similar to Sal or Jorge Soler going down to Miami in the off-season to work with Mike Tosar.
Tresh is definitely a trade candidate. We don't really talk about this side of waiting on a player, but he could go from a secondary piece in a deal to a main piece in a deal if he can continue what he did in 2022 next season. Do you use that trade chip before he becomes as valuable as he can be? I don't know the right answer.
I haven't heard a word about Mondesi's rehab or anything, but keep in mind he spent the 2019/2020 offseason rehabbing. I'm not sure about the next offseason because I just don't remember but he was supposed to spend the winter last year working with Tosar and those guys. Then the lockout happened and he wasn't allowed to have any contact with them. I have never heard anyone with actual knowledge of Mondesi's work question it, but I also haven't heard a lot one way or another, so I guess that's the best answer I can give here.
If the royals move on from Mondesi…I will celebrate. Not because he doesn’t have talent, or maybe he’ll have a career year this year, or whatever reason we want to throw out. I will celebrate because it means the Royals have turned a corner and are not afraid of a player hitting somewhere else. Yes, maybe there is some bad press if that happens, but the reality is he had every shot and sometimes change of scenery is needed for players. Its ok, dont’ be afraid to be wrong, and move on.
I believe that fear was a Dayton thing. I suppose we’ll find out soon if I’m right.
But I do think there’s an argument to keep Mondesi at that price as a dynamic bench piece. I don’t think it means they’re afraid of him succeeding elsewhere. I’d move on, but there are worse things than having a great defensive shortstop with game changing speed on the bench. I do wonder what the speed looks like now, but for $3 million, that’s not much. That said, I don’t think you can keep him AND Lopez as backups.
I'd prefer Mondesi with some pop from both sides of the plate and elite baserunning as the utility infielder at $3m over Nicky at $3.4m. Mondesi and Dozier, in sad ways, might make the best bench players due to having some pop and positional versatility. The Royals problem is that they have treated them as stars or future stars, and neither is.
I wouldn’t say Dozier has ever been treated as a star. He’s been treated as a regular, which I mean I can’t say anything about. I thought he would be very good last year. I was wrong. They were too. Stars don’t sign for $25 million for four years though.
We never know the deals that are offered and not taken.... I'd move Tresh if the offer was good enough, as just about anyone would, but so much of the criticism of trades being made or not made is dependent on the value offered, which as fans, we never know the details of. Also as you mentioned the other day, these we see these guys as players, commodities, when in fact, they are humans living an uncommon life. We generally don't know much about their personalities and problems.
Nice write up. Interesting to see some of those numbers. I know you disagree a bit. But the more I look at this I still come up with Melendez being the one that gets moved. Everyone is very determined that Vinny isn’t getting moved. Which is fine, but one of those are we overvaluing our own guys again here? Because if it isn’t Vinny, Melendez is the next one with build up value right now to move. Couple that with Tresh and Jensen who could easily fill in a couple years down the road. Maybe what I’m saying is I don’t think Pratto has a whole lot of real trade value right now. At least if we are talking a Woodruff or Burnes or Lopez coming back. Maybe there is some disagreement with that but unless you are going to do a package of 4 prospects…its got to be Melendez and that’s ok in my eyes. Not because he isn’t good and could be very good. But because it takes value to get value back…and don’t see that Pratto, Massey, Waters, Loftin, etc have actually built up enough value to be realistic here. Maybe I’m just preparing myself for when people complain if they actually move him….because come on people this is how it works for all other teams. Lol
I don't know why you'd say I disagree. I've written a few times that you have to look at it from the perspective of what other teams would do. And other teams would trade Melendez. I'm not going to love it because I think he can be a difference maker bat, but it's one of those things that you have to trade something to get something.
I think it's hard to say they're overvaluing anyone because we don't know what the plan will be. But I agree that if they're not going to make a quantity over quality swap, Melendez is the guy who probably goes. You're right about Tresh and Jensen and obviously Salvy and the outfield has pieces as well, even though I still believe Melendez can be fine defensively there with some offseason work.
Maybe it wasn’t you then David, my apologies. I can’t remember what I was listening too or reading at the moment now. Maybe it was Royals farm report. But I recall it being about not wanting to move Melendez, Witt Jr, Vinny or Massey. Which is totally fine if that is the route that you go…but nobody is trading with you….so adjust expectations on the adding front if you are looking for a top of the rotation piece. Whatever terrible point I had is now total crap now anyways as our thinking is aligned on this it sounds like. Lol.
Ok, ok, here’s one I know you’ve said since I’m an avid reader. Lol. The roster is broken. I totally agree with that. This roster doesn’t work and I’d say even adding some pitching doesn’t solve the broken roster narrative. But say they add two mid rotation pieces….does that solve the broken roster narrative in your eyes? In mine, I still think you need to move some offensive pieces to help fix the issues of where people are going to play. If they do nothing on offense and run everyone back next year and try to make it fit….but add a couple starting pitchers….do you still feel like we would have the same issues next year?
Adding pitching doesn’t change the fact that they don’t have the right puzzle pieces in place. Some of it is simply moving on from guys like Taylor, Dozier and O’Hearn on the roster and Drew Waters as a center field option helps, buy they still need to find a third baseman (or a shortstop). It’s all fixable, of course, but there’s just work to do.
Oh I don’t *want* to trade any of them either but it’s one of those things that they may have to do.
Good analysis, David, especially possible trade/sign candidates from other teams. I think my dream list would be Burns and Hernandez, but definitely some more under-the-radar guys out there. One thing I would say about Mondesi is I like keeping him until we know what the plan is for SS and 3B next year. If we already know we are going to acquire a 3B, fine, Mondi is expendable. But if we are going into the spring with who we have on the roster now, we should keep him. We know Witt is either SS or 3B, but until we are certain of the other starter, $3M is a low cost for another competitor on the left side. Unless we believe those two positions are set, it looks to me like we'd be rolling into spring with Witt at one position, and Mondi, Lopez, Garcia, Eaton, etc. competing for the other spot, plus back-up.
I go back and forth on Mondesi because $3 million really isn’t much. But also, you’ve got Eaton and Maikel Garcia and still Nicky. It’s just an odd situation.
Thank you for the excellent insight! First, regarding Mondesi. Although the estimated price of $3 million is acceptable, but for how many games? If 125 next year, ok. But 50? Not at all. Plus, recovering from a torn ACL, how much speed does he lose? Can he still cover SS? Considering what both he and Lopez have done in the field, you must go with who plays, not potential and maybe playing time. Maybe non tender, at a reduced salary and prove yourself. If not, time to move on. Or guys he her because of his father? Just a thought.
Before moving any pitcher, I would like to see who is brought in as coach. Remember, Junis and Lopez became successful after they left. Any chance some on the current staff succeed with different tutelage?
Trading MJ in a package deal should get middle of the rotation staff. But then you need to consider who will provide days off for Salvy. Id be happy with the same defensive ability and 60/70٪ of MJ's offensive output. If you keep MJ, there is enough young, quality outfielders that we could package a deal and not be hurt too bad.
Bobby to third and give Franco his shot at SS. Eaton with time could be the answer at third, but he needs more seasoning.
Just my thoughts from a lifelong die hard Royals fan. Can we find the next Busby or AO!
That's the big question on Mondesi. I would hope the training staff and front office knows where he is, but I wonder too. If his speed goes from elite to simply above average, he's cooked in my opinion. I'd bring him back on a minor league deal for sure, but I don't know if he'd do that. It's just an odd situation and kind of bad timing honestly.
I agree about the pitching. I've been saying it for a few weeks now. Some of these guys may stink, but shouldn't we get an idea of what they are with competent instruction before making that final decision? They'll have to move on some, but I will make a point to say that Junis finished the season with a 5.77 ERA in 64 innings after he came back from injury and Lopez had a 6.07 ERA in 2021 and then was kind of middling with the Twins after the trade. They're looked at as the big success stories who left, but neither actually had that much success.
And you're right about MJ. Can Sebastian Rivero hit enough to catch twice a week and not kill the lineup if MJ is gone? I don't know, but I also think if that becomes your biggest worry, you're in great shape, so I don't know that I'd spend that much time worrying too much about it.
I'd rather the royals not trade for a guy who has a high walk rate. We keep doing that and they never improve. Pay a little more and go after someone with a low walk rate. We don't know if a new pitching coach can fix all this
I think you sign Mondesi and hope to catch lightning in a bottle and peddle him at the deadline when we are probably going to be out of it. Mondesi has superstar athletic ability and for a month or two at a time, has looked like he has figured out how to hit. if..... just if.... he can stay healthy for most of a year and stay hot...... I think the chances of that are higher than Nicky hitting .300 again. Nicky is a perfect utility player to me.
He has shown that in spurts, but also I just keep coming back to the whole career. I said this a lot last year, but when a player tells you who he is, we should listen. There's a temptation for sure. And I get it. And I think it's worth the money. I'm just not sure if it's worth the roster spot. To be fair, I'm also not sure it isn't.
Since the 3+ million isn't my money, I'm for it....not a long term solution for sure. If you're a good team with a great starting SS who ends up getting hurt for a lengthy period, Adelberto has a lot of value, for his defense alone, again assuming he's not lost speed and agility. Most guys don't anymore after knee surgery, especially since he's 26-27. Of you cut him loose, you get nothing. World class athletes don't grow on trees. Byron Buxton is set to make 9.1 mil next year with a very similar history. Idk. Is Maikel Garcia the real deal? Decisions..... I tender him and look for trades.
Buxton is the guy who always comes up with Mondesi, but the reality is the only things that are alike are that they're excellent athletes who get hurt. Buxton has hit .258/.316/.558 in 1066 PA the last four years. Mondesi has hit .248/.283/.409 in 866 PA in that time. They both play fantastic defense, but they're not similar. I'm just saying Mondesi is always talked about like he's actually done something, but the reality is that he hasn't. He's shown flashes of doing things, but never consistently enough to matter. I don't think there's necessarily a right answer of what to do, but he has shown himself to be a very good defender and well below average hitter. He might break out at some point, but there's been nothing to lead anyone to believe he's anything more than that.
Probably the best written article, I have read recently.
Thank you, William!