Thanks for the detailed research--great stuff to read. I thought the Gamble pick was OK--didn't love it and didn't hate it. But I think it is a moment to reflect on the Royals process because there as another HS OF they could have taken: Slater de Brun. de Brun is known has one of the most patient HS hitters in this draft class. He also happens to be almost a year younger than Gamble. His swing decision data from premier events is excellent. He's also known for being relatively small (best case scenario like Slade Caldwell and/or Corbin Carroll). Additionally, de Brun probably signs for a decent amount less than Gamble--money that could have been used to not go cheap on our 4th round pick. I hope Gamble does great things but if, a few years from now, the Royals are still stuck in the bottom third of the league in OBP, it comes from an accumuplation of multiple decisions like this one.
To Gamble's credit, he showed a much improved hit tool throughout the spring and an ability to adjust to offspeed pitches. There is a lot more upside already, given the power he's shown with wood already. I like de Brun as well, but both are super talented and it is basically grasping at straws when trying to pick one over the other. And Gamble has the similar defensive abilities and speed as de Brun.
I agree they are similar prospects in terms of value. I think when faced with similar prospects, take the younger/cheaper one. I have heard people say that the Royals have been historically bad at getting on base because (at least partially) on base skills are expensive on the free agent market--the draft is a cheap way to get those skills. I like a lot of what JJ has done but to prioritize on base means making decisions with opportunity costs.
Yes, David and I, along with a few others, actually discussed this as well. We worry about the hitting development for the Royals, so definitely agree to an extent.
I thought this draft class and last year's felt very different then past drafts which is great! I was wondering with our two first picks what would be the projected time frame for them to reach the MLB if at all.
Thanks for this! I wasn't sure how I felt about this draft before reading this. Given their need for more immediate help, I was skeptical of the prep picks early on, but reading how thin the class of college bats was, I feel better about this overall. Hopefully the coaching staff can get the most out of them!
Of. course! Thanks for reading! Yeah, this class unfortunately didn't have any guys who could really provide immediate help outside of Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle. Maybe Gavin Kilen, Andrew Fischer, and Kyson Witherspoon could be quick-ish risers, but still to be determined.
Thanks for the detailed research--great stuff to read. I thought the Gamble pick was OK--didn't love it and didn't hate it. But I think it is a moment to reflect on the Royals process because there as another HS OF they could have taken: Slater de Brun. de Brun is known has one of the most patient HS hitters in this draft class. He also happens to be almost a year younger than Gamble. His swing decision data from premier events is excellent. He's also known for being relatively small (best case scenario like Slade Caldwell and/or Corbin Carroll). Additionally, de Brun probably signs for a decent amount less than Gamble--money that could have been used to not go cheap on our 4th round pick. I hope Gamble does great things but if, a few years from now, the Royals are still stuck in the bottom third of the league in OBP, it comes from an accumuplation of multiple decisions like this one.
To Gamble's credit, he showed a much improved hit tool throughout the spring and an ability to adjust to offspeed pitches. There is a lot more upside already, given the power he's shown with wood already. I like de Brun as well, but both are super talented and it is basically grasping at straws when trying to pick one over the other. And Gamble has the similar defensive abilities and speed as de Brun.
I agree they are similar prospects in terms of value. I think when faced with similar prospects, take the younger/cheaper one. I have heard people say that the Royals have been historically bad at getting on base because (at least partially) on base skills are expensive on the free agent market--the draft is a cheap way to get those skills. I like a lot of what JJ has done but to prioritize on base means making decisions with opportunity costs.
Yes, David and I, along with a few others, actually discussed this as well. We worry about the hitting development for the Royals, so definitely agree to an extent.
I thought this draft class and last year's felt very different then past drafts which is great! I was wondering with our two first picks what would be the projected time frame for them to reach the MLB if at all.
It'll be a bit unless they shock us! haha which is always a possibility. I think you're looking at a minimum of 3-4 years.
Thanks for this! I wasn't sure how I felt about this draft before reading this. Given their need for more immediate help, I was skeptical of the prep picks early on, but reading how thin the class of college bats was, I feel better about this overall. Hopefully the coaching staff can get the most out of them!
Of. course! Thanks for reading! Yeah, this class unfortunately didn't have any guys who could really provide immediate help outside of Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle. Maybe Gavin Kilen, Andrew Fischer, and Kyson Witherspoon could be quick-ish risers, but still to be determined.
Thank you, Jared. Most appreciative.
So we took a gamble, got a Ran Ram and a Van Dam and hopefully we'll win a Lombardi (or equivalent). That sounds solid to me!
On the serious side, thank you for the breakdown, extremely helpful.
Draft question for the guru: what are the most important metrics you look for when you evaluate prospects that tend to indicate mlb level success?
Again, thank you Jared, and you too David - smart move - get a guest writer so you can get an extra day off lol.