He hit a ball 105.4 MPH right at a fielder. It had an xBA of .570. That's the definition of bad luck. You may not like him and that's fine, but there's nothing about it that isn't bad luck.
Well, I agree he can hit it hard, but if he’d hit it between defenders and they couldn’t reach it, that would be good luck? Or would that be attributed to his skill?
Hitting the ball hard is skill. There is some level of ability to direct where you're hitting it, but far less than most people believe. The xBA is of .570 is indicative there. It means that ball is a hit more than half the time and this one wasn't. Hence, bad luck.
I second DP -- not finished with the season yet, but thanks for all your thoughts and hard work, David. I like how you bring up things that don't necessarily make the box score. Anyone who has ever been competitive at anything can relate to your Alec Marsh comments. You might have been horrible at something for a long stretch when you suddenly got that hit/swished that basket/caught that pass and all the bad is forgotten -- you're back in the groove! It could certainly be a mental boost for Marsh. (Hey, throw away the AA year, I was dealing in AAA!) Impossible to quantify how much of the game is mental....
I really appreciate your reading and comments throughout the year, Clark!
It really is amazing what a very little bit of success can do. How often do we see a guy hitless for a few games get a little bloop and then they get hot? It's kind of crazy how that works.
Going into the season, among all the youngish starters, I had pegged Lynch and Hernandez as the two most likely to succeed.
For most of the season I figured I had gone 0-for-2 on that silly prediction. But the way Lynch is finishing, maybe there's a chance I'll turn out to be 1-for-2...???
Lynch has definitely had a weird year. He looked like the best young starter of all of them through mid-May. Then he struggled for a few starts. Then he was had a nice stretch. Then struggled. And now he's had two decent starts and a good start with likely one to go. All that to say that he's a big shrug emoji. But like any of the young pitching, I don't think it's fair to write them off until we see what they can do with competent coaching.
I am appreciative of all your insight. Thank you! Is it me, or do the pitchers seem to be speeding up their pace? Watching the game, it seems they are throwing with a quicker pace and with that, improved performance. Brady and Lynch just seem more fluid lately. Bubic seems to have excess movement not related to pitching. I get that pitching is repeated motion, but wasted movement is not necessary. I could be off, but this is what I see. The bullpen has several quality pieces and I look forward to what next season will bring.
I have not been on the Eaton bandwagon, for all his talent. But the multiple plays 2 days ago just added to my dislike. I understand he is learning 3rd base on the majors league level, but come on. How many times have we heard Rex say get the sure out? He just seems to have an air of cockyness. Being self confident is ok, but you must have some humility and I don't see that.
When was Bobby's last home run? Seems like quite some time ago. Wondering if he has hit a wall. Still getting extra base hits, hitting the ball hard, but seems the power has dropped. MJ has ramped up the power lately. Vinnie and his hitting, along with only 1 error is exciting for next year.
Don't don't what will happen this last week, but I am excited to see what will happen next season!
I have also thought that at least Lynch has sped up some, but he's actually been pretty quick all season. I think he has a bit of a long delivery which might make his tempo seem a little slower.
Eaton is interesting to me. He played more third base than anywhere on the field in the minors but he has been an elite defensive outfielder in the majors. Part of that is his arm, which I think he maybe trusted a bit to much on Tuesday night in Detroit. I will say that while you might be seeing him as cocky, that is absolutely the farthest thing from the truth about him.
Witt's last homer was awhile ago - September 3. I do think there's some fatigue there. That's why he got the day off, but he's also hit .305 with a .337 OBP since then, so at least there's that. He's learned what it takes to play a full big league season this year and I'd expect him to come back next year better for it.
It’s called a better batting order, there are plenty of better lead off hitters than Melendez, there is no way Witt should be sitting. Can’t wait till Matheny is canned, seemed like a good fit when hired but provides no motivation, direction, encouragement and leadership to the younger players. Why are Taylor, Witt and Eaton sitting at the same time, 5- 8 changes every night. Manages to lose not to win, Carter might as well turn his back to the field and coach 3rd, looks lost standing out there, Mantheny, Eldred and Carter the 3 stooges could do better. Great articles, keep up the good work.
Melendez has the third best OBP behind Vinnie and Olivares. I’d be fine with Oli leading off, but the job is to get on and MJ does it. As for guys sitting, Witt’s allowed a day off.
I know we're not *done* done yet, but thanks for all the great work this year -- I've really enjoyed the articles!
Thanks for reading! There's plenty more to come in the offseason too!
No, Hunter Dozier didn’t have bad luck, he’s just not a smart hitter
He hit a ball 105.4 MPH right at a fielder. It had an xBA of .570. That's the definition of bad luck. You may not like him and that's fine, but there's nothing about it that isn't bad luck.
I love your newsletter and look forward to your knowledge and insights. We will just need to agree to disagree about skill vs luck.
I just don't quite understand why hitting a ball 105 MPH+ right at someone isn't bad luck, but that's fine.
Well, I agree he can hit it hard, but if he’d hit it between defenders and they couldn’t reach it, that would be good luck? Or would that be attributed to his skill?
Hitting the ball hard is skill. There is some level of ability to direct where you're hitting it, but far less than most people believe. The xBA is of .570 is indicative there. It means that ball is a hit more than half the time and this one wasn't. Hence, bad luck.
I second DP -- not finished with the season yet, but thanks for all your thoughts and hard work, David. I like how you bring up things that don't necessarily make the box score. Anyone who has ever been competitive at anything can relate to your Alec Marsh comments. You might have been horrible at something for a long stretch when you suddenly got that hit/swished that basket/caught that pass and all the bad is forgotten -- you're back in the groove! It could certainly be a mental boost for Marsh. (Hey, throw away the AA year, I was dealing in AAA!) Impossible to quantify how much of the game is mental....
I really appreciate your reading and comments throughout the year, Clark!
It really is amazing what a very little bit of success can do. How often do we see a guy hitless for a few games get a little bloop and then they get hot? It's kind of crazy how that works.
Going into the season, among all the youngish starters, I had pegged Lynch and Hernandez as the two most likely to succeed.
For most of the season I figured I had gone 0-for-2 on that silly prediction. But the way Lynch is finishing, maybe there's a chance I'll turn out to be 1-for-2...???
Lynch has definitely had a weird year. He looked like the best young starter of all of them through mid-May. Then he struggled for a few starts. Then he was had a nice stretch. Then struggled. And now he's had two decent starts and a good start with likely one to go. All that to say that he's a big shrug emoji. But like any of the young pitching, I don't think it's fair to write them off until we see what they can do with competent coaching.
I am appreciative of all your insight. Thank you! Is it me, or do the pitchers seem to be speeding up their pace? Watching the game, it seems they are throwing with a quicker pace and with that, improved performance. Brady and Lynch just seem more fluid lately. Bubic seems to have excess movement not related to pitching. I get that pitching is repeated motion, but wasted movement is not necessary. I could be off, but this is what I see. The bullpen has several quality pieces and I look forward to what next season will bring.
I have not been on the Eaton bandwagon, for all his talent. But the multiple plays 2 days ago just added to my dislike. I understand he is learning 3rd base on the majors league level, but come on. How many times have we heard Rex say get the sure out? He just seems to have an air of cockyness. Being self confident is ok, but you must have some humility and I don't see that.
When was Bobby's last home run? Seems like quite some time ago. Wondering if he has hit a wall. Still getting extra base hits, hitting the ball hard, but seems the power has dropped. MJ has ramped up the power lately. Vinnie and his hitting, along with only 1 error is exciting for next year.
Don't don't what will happen this last week, but I am excited to see what will happen next season!
I have also thought that at least Lynch has sped up some, but he's actually been pretty quick all season. I think he has a bit of a long delivery which might make his tempo seem a little slower.
Eaton is interesting to me. He played more third base than anywhere on the field in the minors but he has been an elite defensive outfielder in the majors. Part of that is his arm, which I think he maybe trusted a bit to much on Tuesday night in Detroit. I will say that while you might be seeing him as cocky, that is absolutely the farthest thing from the truth about him.
Witt's last homer was awhile ago - September 3. I do think there's some fatigue there. That's why he got the day off, but he's also hit .305 with a .337 OBP since then, so at least there's that. He's learned what it takes to play a full big league season this year and I'd expect him to come back next year better for it.
It’s called a better batting order, there are plenty of better lead off hitters than Melendez, there is no way Witt should be sitting. Can’t wait till Matheny is canned, seemed like a good fit when hired but provides no motivation, direction, encouragement and leadership to the younger players. Why are Taylor, Witt and Eaton sitting at the same time, 5- 8 changes every night. Manages to lose not to win, Carter might as well turn his back to the field and coach 3rd, looks lost standing out there, Mantheny, Eldred and Carter the 3 stooges could do better. Great articles, keep up the good work.
Melendez has the third best OBP behind Vinnie and Olivares. I’d be fine with Oli leading off, but the job is to get on and MJ does it. As for guys sitting, Witt’s allowed a day off.