Really good breakdown of a very complicated situation. Thank you. You convinced me that moving Barlow is very important, and urgent. Before spring training would actually be best in my opinion--i.e. before he has a chance to show any signs of problems. (Not likely to happen, I know).
I think it's possible, but definitely agree it's not likely. I was actually fine with not trading him at the deadline, seeing the return for Jorge Lopez in particular. But yeah, I think it needs to happen while the value is still high in terms of team control, and not even taking into account a potential decline that could continue.
Nice recap David. Actually, the interesting part in the exercise the last few days has probably been how little the names have changed since end of year. Watching baseball for a number of season now, my fear isn’t that no improvement is going to be made. My fear, as always with the Royals, is that they always “count/hope” on everyone improving and that isn’t how it works. Improvement will be made with this pitching staff, how much is up for debate. Because, I think someone is going to pop and have a good season (think Singer last year)…but I also know more than one is going to regress.
Here’s my what if question. What move makes this team better both this year and in 2024? Trading Melendez for Pablo Lopez….or signing Lyles for 2/17? I assume you’d probably say keeping Melendez, which i get. But man, I’d be more interested in this team with a Singer, Lopez, Lynch top of the rotation that I could dream on a little bit. No dreaming with Lyles as the second starter. Lol. I’m still irritated by the lack of movement from this front office. I understand it….but its still smells of prior years.
I know I'm 100% a broken record, but if you change out the entire big league coaching staff and you've got approximately 800 younger pitchers who you need to sort through, I'm fine with them taking this year to sort through them. You mention Melendez for Lopez specifically. First of all, I'd be very surprised if that gets it done given what I've heard. Second of all, you're trading six years of control for two years when what difference does Lopez make in 2023? Maybe he adds three wins. And let's say they're really a true talent 72-win baseline team. Okay, that's 75. I'd be fine with that if you could keep Lopez for more than a year after another playoff-less season, but you can't guarantee that at all and, again, if you trust your coaches, why would you pay for that?
I go back to the point that they got themselves in a very bad situation, removed (at least some of) those responsible for said bad situation. And now they're taking stock of the situation. And it sucks from a fan standpoint, but I'd rather they do what they need to do in order to win in the future than try to win 83 games this year and set themselves up for trouble when they actually could have been good. If it works remains to be seen, but I at least appreciate the approach.
Yeah, I don’t know that Melendez would get it done. Its the endless cycle that we as fans are in. Maybe Lopez doesn’t make a huge difference or just 3 more wins next year, but maybe those 3 wins means something in 24. The point is more that they aren’t trying to get better and it is very frustrating. Its a broken roster that isn’t getting resolved. Still time I know, but for gods sakes shouldn’t you know where to play people before they get to the majors? Make Melendez a right fielder if you aren’t going to move him…this roster flexibility is overrated when they aren’t good at any position because of it. Pick a spot or move him. Come on fellas.
Yeah, I agree they've done a terrible job with knowing what to do with guys even when given the time to make a decision. They knew they had Salvador Perez. So yes, absolutely a mistake. But also a past mistake. Can't fix that. I'm curious what the actions are. They also said Ryan O'Hearn was going to get more at bats than last year and then he was the second guy gone.
Great article and it's going to be interesting to see how our pitching staff changes over the next few weeks and through spring training. I'm more pessimistic about our starters than our bullpen - I just don't see how we possibly have enough quality/talent there to compete even if we resign Greinke. I think we need to make a couple of moves/acquisitions for starters to improve over last year. Somehow, I think we can find a way to have at least a decent bullpen with our current roster. Your thoughts?
Oh I absolutely think the bullpen can be good. But they're likely going to get too many starts from guys who have no business getting too many starts once again. If this is the last year of that, great. If it's not, there are issues.
Ha, I mean honestly a lot of it is just the unknown. I think we felt generally pretty good with some reclamation project pitchers because the Royals had Dave Eiland. Then they hire Cal and we all felt pretty bad about anyone because we didn't think Cal could do anything with them. Now we don't know what these guys are capable of. I hear all the time that the Royals young pitching is talented and would succeed elsewhere (some of it, not all of it). Well, with new voices, it's almost like they're elsewhere. So I really don't have any clue what to expect.
I'd bet pretty hard on Kowar in the minors to start the year and Hernandez 45/55 to break with the club. But he's out of options, so that makes it interesting.
Just looking at the pitching staff fills me with the same overwhelmed feeling I had when we started moving a few months back. I brought home a bunch of boxes, I knew the end result I wanted, but there was so much to do and I was so unsure where to start that I found myself just standing there, doing nothing at all. Fortunately, it's not my job to fix the Royals pitching, but I am invested and I hope Quatraro, Sweeney, and Bove aren't stuck in that stunned state. Though I probably wouldn't blame them if they are.
Well damn if that isn't a perfect way to look at it because I'm only a few months ahead of you on the moving. Good thing they get a full spring this year to evaluate a little bit more at least.
Really good breakdown of a very complicated situation. Thank you. You convinced me that moving Barlow is very important, and urgent. Before spring training would actually be best in my opinion--i.e. before he has a chance to show any signs of problems. (Not likely to happen, I know).
I think it's possible, but definitely agree it's not likely. I was actually fine with not trading him at the deadline, seeing the return for Jorge Lopez in particular. But yeah, I think it needs to happen while the value is still high in terms of team control, and not even taking into account a potential decline that could continue.
Unfortunately, holding on to relievers way too long is becoming as much a Royals tradition as powder blue in the uniforms.
They did get rid of the powder blues, though, so anything is possible.
That's true!
Nice recap David. Actually, the interesting part in the exercise the last few days has probably been how little the names have changed since end of year. Watching baseball for a number of season now, my fear isn’t that no improvement is going to be made. My fear, as always with the Royals, is that they always “count/hope” on everyone improving and that isn’t how it works. Improvement will be made with this pitching staff, how much is up for debate. Because, I think someone is going to pop and have a good season (think Singer last year)…but I also know more than one is going to regress.
Here’s my what if question. What move makes this team better both this year and in 2024? Trading Melendez for Pablo Lopez….or signing Lyles for 2/17? I assume you’d probably say keeping Melendez, which i get. But man, I’d be more interested in this team with a Singer, Lopez, Lynch top of the rotation that I could dream on a little bit. No dreaming with Lyles as the second starter. Lol. I’m still irritated by the lack of movement from this front office. I understand it….but its still smells of prior years.
I know I'm 100% a broken record, but if you change out the entire big league coaching staff and you've got approximately 800 younger pitchers who you need to sort through, I'm fine with them taking this year to sort through them. You mention Melendez for Lopez specifically. First of all, I'd be very surprised if that gets it done given what I've heard. Second of all, you're trading six years of control for two years when what difference does Lopez make in 2023? Maybe he adds three wins. And let's say they're really a true talent 72-win baseline team. Okay, that's 75. I'd be fine with that if you could keep Lopez for more than a year after another playoff-less season, but you can't guarantee that at all and, again, if you trust your coaches, why would you pay for that?
I go back to the point that they got themselves in a very bad situation, removed (at least some of) those responsible for said bad situation. And now they're taking stock of the situation. And it sucks from a fan standpoint, but I'd rather they do what they need to do in order to win in the future than try to win 83 games this year and set themselves up for trouble when they actually could have been good. If it works remains to be seen, but I at least appreciate the approach.
Yeah, I don’t know that Melendez would get it done. Its the endless cycle that we as fans are in. Maybe Lopez doesn’t make a huge difference or just 3 more wins next year, but maybe those 3 wins means something in 24. The point is more that they aren’t trying to get better and it is very frustrating. Its a broken roster that isn’t getting resolved. Still time I know, but for gods sakes shouldn’t you know where to play people before they get to the majors? Make Melendez a right fielder if you aren’t going to move him…this roster flexibility is overrated when they aren’t good at any position because of it. Pick a spot or move him. Come on fellas.
Yeah, I agree they've done a terrible job with knowing what to do with guys even when given the time to make a decision. They knew they had Salvador Perez. So yes, absolutely a mistake. But also a past mistake. Can't fix that. I'm curious what the actions are. They also said Ryan O'Hearn was going to get more at bats than last year and then he was the second guy gone.
Great article and it's going to be interesting to see how our pitching staff changes over the next few weeks and through spring training. I'm more pessimistic about our starters than our bullpen - I just don't see how we possibly have enough quality/talent there to compete even if we resign Greinke. I think we need to make a couple of moves/acquisitions for starters to improve over last year. Somehow, I think we can find a way to have at least a decent bullpen with our current roster. Your thoughts?
Oh I absolutely think the bullpen can be good. But they're likely going to get too many starts from guys who have no business getting too many starts once again. If this is the last year of that, great. If it's not, there are issues.
"...the most cautious of optimism..."
Hmmm... David, you sound as fully committed to unwavering ambivalence and clearly defined areas of uncertainty as I am.
Ha, I mean honestly a lot of it is just the unknown. I think we felt generally pretty good with some reclamation project pitchers because the Royals had Dave Eiland. Then they hire Cal and we all felt pretty bad about anyone because we didn't think Cal could do anything with them. Now we don't know what these guys are capable of. I hear all the time that the Royals young pitching is talented and would succeed elsewhere (some of it, not all of it). Well, with new voices, it's almost like they're elsewhere. So I really don't have any clue what to expect.
What odds would you put for Kowar and Hernandez to be in the rotation, bullpen, Omaha or not on the team?
I'd bet pretty hard on Kowar in the minors to start the year and Hernandez 45/55 to break with the club. But he's out of options, so that makes it interesting.
Just looking at the pitching staff fills me with the same overwhelmed feeling I had when we started moving a few months back. I brought home a bunch of boxes, I knew the end result I wanted, but there was so much to do and I was so unsure where to start that I found myself just standing there, doing nothing at all. Fortunately, it's not my job to fix the Royals pitching, but I am invested and I hope Quatraro, Sweeney, and Bove aren't stuck in that stunned state. Though I probably wouldn't blame them if they are.
Well damn if that isn't a perfect way to look at it because I'm only a few months ahead of you on the moving. Good thing they get a full spring this year to evaluate a little bit more at least.
Sorry I missed Prato name on the roster
I share your optimism on the new pitching staff but it's such a low bar to hurdle. Thanks for the insight.