Thanks David. IDK, but I get caught up in the hype of spring training as much as anyone and want to say “maybe”. For some reason your lineup estimations this morning just hit me, maybe because the first time really taking a look at it, but that isn’t a playoff lineup quite yet. The first 5 are perfectly acceptable and fine in a playoff lineup I think. After Perez/Olivares….quite a bit to prove yet. I think Massey can be good…but I sometimes think he just replaces Olivares because for whatever reason I don’t get full buy in on Olivares from the Royals. I know they aren’t expecting anything this season…so that’s not a surprise…but the lineup has a little bit to go yet (along with the pitching)…if they really believe next year is a step forward year. A lot will happen throughout the year though So hopefully they can find ways to extend it and build some depth.
Question for the day: Is Salvy on the next Royals playoff team?
Great run down and analyses. Really thorough. Thank you. This actually could be a good offensive team. If 2 of the big 3 (Melendez, Witt, Pasquantino) have plus seasons and the other decent and Salvy is Salvy, then the other five hitters (whoever they may be on a given day) really just need to get on base at a reasonable rate for us to score a lot of runs. Sounds like defensive will be average-ish, or rather it will be once Dozier is off the field.
Ultimately, I think the season will come down to pitching. In the unlikely event our staff ERA is top 5, then the Royals will flirt with the playoffs. If it is bottom 5, this will be a terrible year. If it's middle of the pack, then we're looking at a 74-ish win season.
I hope that Massey can hit and field as well as many people think. The Royals need solid defense to offset their abysmal starting pitching. Hopefully Lynch can have the year that has been previously been predicted and Keller can prove he is really a starting pitcher again. The Royals starting five will likely be one of the worst in the American League, so defense, defense, defense. Of course, scoring runs will help as well.
I find the outfield intriguing too, and not just for the up coming season. Who starts here at the beginning of the year, probably won't be the same starting 3 at the end. Nor will that group be the 3 at the end of 2024. My question is will any of the 3 be starting in 2025?
Both Isbel and Waters are question marks, can Melendez improve enough defensively to fend off the competition when better options become available? Part of the reason I say this is Tyler Gentry and Gavin Cross are coming soon if they continue to shine. I don't really see more than 1 out of the current group who will last. I hope I'm wrong, but none of this group seems a long term solution unless they improve in one way or another.
I think pasquintino hits better than that and I think his slugging percentage will be higher than that. I think Witt average and especially his obp will be lower than that. I also think it's a big mistake to bring Lopez off the bench and start Massey. I think Lopez will bounce back and be closer to the 300 hitter he was 2 years ago. He also walks a lot. His obp will be a lot higher. They completely messed the guy up last year. The year before he was one of the best shortstops in the game and hit 300. The next year he loses out to Witt and they also moved him down in the lineup from batting leadoff to hitting ninth. That's going to mess with anyone's head. He needs that extra at bat each game from batting lead off
That is a lot of Royals food to chew on but it is finally time to eat! Dozier at third (and the apparent organization dedication to that path) is still tasting so bad that I can't even focus on the rest of the plate though...
Good stuff as usual, David. Thank you. Obviously we'll all have to wait and see whether all of the coaching changes unlock some of the (yet) unmet potential in the younger pitchers, but I'm squinting hard and trying to see a contender this year. If the collective group of second year hitters improve by 10-15% (as a group, not all of them individually) and someone (or just to dream, even two!) from the Lynch/Bubic/Kowar/Heasley group takes a leap similar to what Singer did last year, could you see a semi-realistic scenario where the Royals contend in the AL Central in 2023, or is that extreme wishful thinking?
Good insight as always! as an mlb desert fan of the rays (closest team is their AAA) I am excited to probably be heading to kc area this summer. that being said I Think? I can offer some nonbettable predictions on where I think KC might be headed based on some Piccolo and Q comments, rays watcher, and gut full of beer fan: (longwinded, silent fan rant coming up)
They will play everyone on the roster regularly, with a lot of callups from 40 man. They will PLAY THEM BASED ON MATCHUPS. Yes, basic platooning, but also any edge they can get - Rays played multiple catchers based on how they synced with pitchers (according to broadcasters). This makes me think Freddy will be on roster at some point, but agree - not to begin season. Framing does matter (for now) in some situations (especially young pitching staff). Salvy is the bomb, and I am guessing if he is on board with new regime, there is no way they trade him; Hope he stays the heart of this team, but guessing he won't be much over 100 games at catcher when he buys into "team first" mentality.
(Again) Everyone Plays- (Hunter Doziers numbers don't look horrible(serviceable? to me??), and yeah they will play him at third, but guessing sporadically?-Excited to see what yungun can look good at 3rd. (Any chance Maikel Garcia plays3rd?) But im thinking if a player is on the roster, they will get played to matchups and not ride bench whole season.
Lineup will also be based on matchups. Hope Eaton good enough defensively and gets a smidge better offensively to be in lineup semi regular. Thinking Nicky will be in there a bit too? I question if Duffy and Beaty will be given early season dibs, but certainly will be used at some point.
BWJ at ss no doubt, I bet whole year. I really think he will be the dude. Granted I only watched royals wins on mlb after break last year, but he reminds me so much of Lindor, he will get there defensively I think. And PASQUATCH? so much fun to watch, maybe he has a sophomore slump?, but agree - powerhouse, he will fix any slump.
Can someone punch my Royals fan card before they get good again? with the new interleague schedule, I won't go so far as predicting a winning record (but think it is more than possible), but I do think the Royals look a hell of a lot better this year!
Thanks David. IDK, but I get caught up in the hype of spring training as much as anyone and want to say “maybe”. For some reason your lineup estimations this morning just hit me, maybe because the first time really taking a look at it, but that isn’t a playoff lineup quite yet. The first 5 are perfectly acceptable and fine in a playoff lineup I think. After Perez/Olivares….quite a bit to prove yet. I think Massey can be good…but I sometimes think he just replaces Olivares because for whatever reason I don’t get full buy in on Olivares from the Royals. I know they aren’t expecting anything this season…so that’s not a surprise…but the lineup has a little bit to go yet (along with the pitching)…if they really believe next year is a step forward year. A lot will happen throughout the year though So hopefully they can find ways to extend it and build some depth.
Question for the day: Is Salvy on the next Royals playoff team?
I love the idea of batting Olivares twice against LHP. Seems to be a great innovation of the modern day platoon.
Isbel could be traded or designated, enough depth without him,
Great run down and analyses. Really thorough. Thank you. This actually could be a good offensive team. If 2 of the big 3 (Melendez, Witt, Pasquantino) have plus seasons and the other decent and Salvy is Salvy, then the other five hitters (whoever they may be on a given day) really just need to get on base at a reasonable rate for us to score a lot of runs. Sounds like defensive will be average-ish, or rather it will be once Dozier is off the field.
Ultimately, I think the season will come down to pitching. In the unlikely event our staff ERA is top 5, then the Royals will flirt with the playoffs. If it is bottom 5, this will be a terrible year. If it's middle of the pack, then we're looking at a 74-ish win season.
I hope that Massey can hit and field as well as many people think. The Royals need solid defense to offset their abysmal starting pitching. Hopefully Lynch can have the year that has been previously been predicted and Keller can prove he is really a starting pitcher again. The Royals starting five will likely be one of the worst in the American League, so defense, defense, defense. Of course, scoring runs will help as well.
I find the outfield intriguing too, and not just for the up coming season. Who starts here at the beginning of the year, probably won't be the same starting 3 at the end. Nor will that group be the 3 at the end of 2024. My question is will any of the 3 be starting in 2025?
Both Isbel and Waters are question marks, can Melendez improve enough defensively to fend off the competition when better options become available? Part of the reason I say this is Tyler Gentry and Gavin Cross are coming soon if they continue to shine. I don't really see more than 1 out of the current group who will last. I hope I'm wrong, but none of this group seems a long term solution unless they improve in one way or another.
I think pasquintino hits better than that and I think his slugging percentage will be higher than that. I think Witt average and especially his obp will be lower than that. I also think it's a big mistake to bring Lopez off the bench and start Massey. I think Lopez will bounce back and be closer to the 300 hitter he was 2 years ago. He also walks a lot. His obp will be a lot higher. They completely messed the guy up last year. The year before he was one of the best shortstops in the game and hit 300. The next year he loses out to Witt and they also moved him down in the lineup from batting leadoff to hitting ninth. That's going to mess with anyone's head. He needs that extra at bat each game from batting lead off
That is a lot of Royals food to chew on but it is finally time to eat! Dozier at third (and the apparent organization dedication to that path) is still tasting so bad that I can't even focus on the rest of the plate though...
Good stuff as usual, David. Thank you. Obviously we'll all have to wait and see whether all of the coaching changes unlock some of the (yet) unmet potential in the younger pitchers, but I'm squinting hard and trying to see a contender this year. If the collective group of second year hitters improve by 10-15% (as a group, not all of them individually) and someone (or just to dream, even two!) from the Lynch/Bubic/Kowar/Heasley group takes a leap similar to what Singer did last year, could you see a semi-realistic scenario where the Royals contend in the AL Central in 2023, or is that extreme wishful thinking?
I agree...Dozier is done like dinner!
Good insight as always! as an mlb desert fan of the rays (closest team is their AAA) I am excited to probably be heading to kc area this summer. that being said I Think? I can offer some nonbettable predictions on where I think KC might be headed based on some Piccolo and Q comments, rays watcher, and gut full of beer fan: (longwinded, silent fan rant coming up)
They will play everyone on the roster regularly, with a lot of callups from 40 man. They will PLAY THEM BASED ON MATCHUPS. Yes, basic platooning, but also any edge they can get - Rays played multiple catchers based on how they synced with pitchers (according to broadcasters). This makes me think Freddy will be on roster at some point, but agree - not to begin season. Framing does matter (for now) in some situations (especially young pitching staff). Salvy is the bomb, and I am guessing if he is on board with new regime, there is no way they trade him; Hope he stays the heart of this team, but guessing he won't be much over 100 games at catcher when he buys into "team first" mentality.
(Again) Everyone Plays- (Hunter Doziers numbers don't look horrible(serviceable? to me??), and yeah they will play him at third, but guessing sporadically?-Excited to see what yungun can look good at 3rd. (Any chance Maikel Garcia plays3rd?) But im thinking if a player is on the roster, they will get played to matchups and not ride bench whole season.
Lineup will also be based on matchups. Hope Eaton good enough defensively and gets a smidge better offensively to be in lineup semi regular. Thinking Nicky will be in there a bit too? I question if Duffy and Beaty will be given early season dibs, but certainly will be used at some point.
BWJ at ss no doubt, I bet whole year. I really think he will be the dude. Granted I only watched royals wins on mlb after break last year, but he reminds me so much of Lindor, he will get there defensively I think. And PASQUATCH? so much fun to watch, maybe he has a sophomore slump?, but agree - powerhouse, he will fix any slump.
Can someone punch my Royals fan card before they get good again? with the new interleague schedule, I won't go so far as predicting a winning record (but think it is more than possible), but I do think the Royals look a hell of a lot better this year!
, no