Thanks David. IDK, but I get caught up in the hype of spring training as much as anyone and want to say “maybe”. For some reason your lineup estimations this morning just hit me, maybe because the first time really taking a look at it, but that isn’t a playoff lineup quite yet. The first 5 are perfectly acceptable and fine in a playoff lineup I think. After Perez/Olivares….quite a bit to prove yet. I think Massey can be good…but I sometimes think he just replaces Olivares because for whatever reason I don’t get full buy in on Olivares from the Royals. I know they aren’t expecting anything this season…so that’s not a surprise…but the lineup has a little bit to go yet (along with the pitching)…if they really believe next year is a step forward year. A lot will happen throughout the year though So hopefully they can find ways to extend it and build some depth.
Question for the day: Is Salvy on the next Royals playoff team?
Oh it's absolutely not there yet, but I think you can see it working, especially when you consider that you've got Maikel Garcia, Gavin Cross, Nick Pratto, Tyler Gentry, Nick Loftin, Cayden Wallace, Luca Tresh, Carter Jensen and a bunch of others who can come and fill in gaps as well. We haven't seen it produce a legitimately good big league offense yet, but the development system gets so much praise and we've started to see some of those fruits that I think you can at least feel optimistic that they will get there.
And what's nice if you believe that the top five is a legitimate top five is that you don't have to go out and get stars. Yeah, it would be nice to bump someone down a spot or two, but you can get role players. I think there's reason to be optimistic about the offense over the next 2-3 seasons from what we've seen, which is a contrast to the pitching side where the optimism likely has to come from things we don't see yet with the new coaching staff.
As for Salvy, I'll say yes because I do believe that things can turn around quickly if they can figure out two of the pitchers, which I think this staff will (again, just trust in the coaches, not anything I've seen, which is scary). The AL Central isn't exactly a huge mountain to climb in any given year and I think they make it in 2024 or 2025 and I don't think Salvy gets moved.
Beat me to it, Alex. I was thinking along the same lines; that it was cool that one of the new rules was you could designate one batter to hit twice in the lineup. LOL!
Good column, David. We may not see it all this year, but there is potential for hitting in that lineup. If the pitching can catch up...
Great run down and analyses. Really thorough. Thank you. This actually could be a good offensive team. If 2 of the big 3 (Melendez, Witt, Pasquantino) have plus seasons and the other decent and Salvy is Salvy, then the other five hitters (whoever they may be on a given day) really just need to get on base at a reasonable rate for us to score a lot of runs. Sounds like defensive will be average-ish, or rather it will be once Dozier is off the field.
Ultimately, I think the season will come down to pitching. In the unlikely event our staff ERA is top 5, then the Royals will flirt with the playoffs. If it is bottom 5, this will be a terrible year. If it's middle of the pack, then we're looking at a 74-ish win season.
They should score enough runs to generally compete. And they put together enough good plate appearances through the lineup that you'd hope they won't fall into those deep and dark slumps. But yeah, there are quite a few options for who can step up to help complete the lineup.
I hope that Massey can hit and field as well as many people think. The Royals need solid defense to offset their abysmal starting pitching. Hopefully Lynch can have the year that has been previously been predicted and Keller can prove he is really a starting pitcher again. The Royals starting five will likely be one of the worst in the American League, so defense, defense, defense. Of course, scoring runs will help as well.
Massey is a good defender, but his arm is a liability. Like I've said, the shift restrictions should help him out there at least. I don't think we have any real way of knowing what the pitching staff is capable of. They've been led by incompetence for so long that it's hard to know if they're beyond repair or if new coaches can come in and coax the potential out of them. They may be one of the worst, but they also may not be. The data we've seen says they'll be bad, but they're also basically in a new organization in terms of instruction, so we just don't know for sure.
I find the outfield intriguing too, and not just for the up coming season. Who starts here at the beginning of the year, probably won't be the same starting 3 at the end. Nor will that group be the 3 at the end of 2024. My question is will any of the 3 be starting in 2025?
Both Isbel and Waters are question marks, can Melendez improve enough defensively to fend off the competition when better options become available? Part of the reason I say this is Tyler Gentry and Gavin Cross are coming soon if they continue to shine. I don't really see more than 1 out of the current group who will last. I hope I'm wrong, but none of this group seems a long term solution unless they improve in one way or another.
I think Melendez is absolutely a big league hitter. The question is where he plays in the field. And if it's with the Royals given the fact that he's a Boras client and likely won't be signing any sort of extension. We'll see how that goes.
I think pasquintino hits better than that and I think his slugging percentage will be higher than that. I think Witt average and especially his obp will be lower than that. I also think it's a big mistake to bring Lopez off the bench and start Massey. I think Lopez will bounce back and be closer to the 300 hitter he was 2 years ago. He also walks a lot. His obp will be a lot higher. They completely messed the guy up last year. The year before he was one of the best shortstops in the game and hit 300. The next year he loses out to Witt and they also moved him down in the lineup from batting leadoff to hitting ninth. That's going to mess with anyone's head. He needs that extra at bat each game from batting lead off
That is a lot of Royals food to chew on but it is finally time to eat! Dozier at third (and the apparent organization dedication to that path) is still tasting so bad that I can't even focus on the rest of the plate though...
Good stuff as usual, David. Thank you. Obviously we'll all have to wait and see whether all of the coaching changes unlock some of the (yet) unmet potential in the younger pitchers, but I'm squinting hard and trying to see a contender this year. If the collective group of second year hitters improve by 10-15% (as a group, not all of them individually) and someone (or just to dream, even two!) from the Lynch/Bubic/Kowar/Heasley group takes a leap similar to what Singer did last year, could you see a semi-realistic scenario where the Royals contend in the AL Central in 2023, or is that extreme wishful thinking?
It comes down to math really. The Guardians won the Central with 92 wins in 2022. The Royals were 27 games behind them. Let's assume 92 is still the number to beat. What bridges that gap enough? If the lineup is 15% better, that's 96 more runs (in a very simplistic view), which is 9.6 wins. The pitching staff (along with the defense) needs to be 17.4 wins better to get there. Adding 96 runs without a single addition is a pretty tall task in itself, but cutting 174 runs is an even taller task. There's more to it than that, especially if you think they're better with new leadership than they were last season, but there's a 270-run gap they need to close.
Can it happen? Sure. Especially with a team relying so heavily on young talent that could theoretically take off at any time. Is it likely? I would say not really. But that doesn't mean they can't play competitive games into the last month of the season and be within shouting distance.
Good insight as always! as an mlb desert fan of the rays (closest team is their AAA) I am excited to probably be heading to kc area this summer. that being said I Think? I can offer some nonbettable predictions on where I think KC might be headed based on some Piccolo and Q comments, rays watcher, and gut full of beer fan: (longwinded, silent fan rant coming up)
They will play everyone on the roster regularly, with a lot of callups from 40 man. They will PLAY THEM BASED ON MATCHUPS. Yes, basic platooning, but also any edge they can get - Rays played multiple catchers based on how they synced with pitchers (according to broadcasters). This makes me think Freddy will be on roster at some point, but agree - not to begin season. Framing does matter (for now) in some situations (especially young pitching staff). Salvy is the bomb, and I am guessing if he is on board with new regime, there is no way they trade him; Hope he stays the heart of this team, but guessing he won't be much over 100 games at catcher when he buys into "team first" mentality.
(Again) Everyone Plays- (Hunter Doziers numbers don't look horrible(serviceable? to me??), and yeah they will play him at third, but guessing sporadically?-Excited to see what yungun can look good at 3rd. (Any chance Maikel Garcia plays3rd?) But im thinking if a player is on the roster, they will get played to matchups and not ride bench whole season.
Lineup will also be based on matchups. Hope Eaton good enough defensively and gets a smidge better offensively to be in lineup semi regular. Thinking Nicky will be in there a bit too? I question if Duffy and Beaty will be given early season dibs, but certainly will be used at some point.
BWJ at ss no doubt, I bet whole year. I really think he will be the dude. Granted I only watched royals wins on mlb after break last year, but he reminds me so much of Lindor, he will get there defensively I think. And PASQUATCH? so much fun to watch, maybe he has a sophomore slump?, but agree - powerhouse, he will fix any slump.
Can someone punch my Royals fan card before they get good again? with the new interleague schedule, I won't go so far as predicting a winning record (but think it is more than possible), but I do think the Royals look a hell of a lot better this year!
Thanks David. IDK, but I get caught up in the hype of spring training as much as anyone and want to say “maybe”. For some reason your lineup estimations this morning just hit me, maybe because the first time really taking a look at it, but that isn’t a playoff lineup quite yet. The first 5 are perfectly acceptable and fine in a playoff lineup I think. After Perez/Olivares….quite a bit to prove yet. I think Massey can be good…but I sometimes think he just replaces Olivares because for whatever reason I don’t get full buy in on Olivares from the Royals. I know they aren’t expecting anything this season…so that’s not a surprise…but the lineup has a little bit to go yet (along with the pitching)…if they really believe next year is a step forward year. A lot will happen throughout the year though So hopefully they can find ways to extend it and build some depth.
Question for the day: Is Salvy on the next Royals playoff team?
Oh it's absolutely not there yet, but I think you can see it working, especially when you consider that you've got Maikel Garcia, Gavin Cross, Nick Pratto, Tyler Gentry, Nick Loftin, Cayden Wallace, Luca Tresh, Carter Jensen and a bunch of others who can come and fill in gaps as well. We haven't seen it produce a legitimately good big league offense yet, but the development system gets so much praise and we've started to see some of those fruits that I think you can at least feel optimistic that they will get there.
And what's nice if you believe that the top five is a legitimate top five is that you don't have to go out and get stars. Yeah, it would be nice to bump someone down a spot or two, but you can get role players. I think there's reason to be optimistic about the offense over the next 2-3 seasons from what we've seen, which is a contrast to the pitching side where the optimism likely has to come from things we don't see yet with the new coaching staff.
As for Salvy, I'll say yes because I do believe that things can turn around quickly if they can figure out two of the pitchers, which I think this staff will (again, just trust in the coaches, not anything I've seen, which is scary). The AL Central isn't exactly a huge mountain to climb in any given year and I think they make it in 2024 or 2025 and I don't think Salvy gets moved.
I love the idea of batting Olivares twice against LHP. Seems to be a great innovation of the modern day platoon.
Ha, whoopsadoodle. That was supposed to be MJ.
Beat me to it, Alex. I was thinking along the same lines; that it was cool that one of the new rules was you could designate one batter to hit twice in the lineup. LOL!
Good column, David. We may not see it all this year, but there is potential for hitting in that lineup. If the pitching can catch up...
I think they'll score runs. I don't think they'll be top four in the AL, but I think top half is doable for sure.
Isbel could be traded or designated, enough depth without him,
He could be. But he won't be. And I don't think he should be.
Also, he has options, so if he isn't on the big league roster, he'll be in Omaha. But barring something crazy, he'll be on the big league roster.
Great run down and analyses. Really thorough. Thank you. This actually could be a good offensive team. If 2 of the big 3 (Melendez, Witt, Pasquantino) have plus seasons and the other decent and Salvy is Salvy, then the other five hitters (whoever they may be on a given day) really just need to get on base at a reasonable rate for us to score a lot of runs. Sounds like defensive will be average-ish, or rather it will be once Dozier is off the field.
Ultimately, I think the season will come down to pitching. In the unlikely event our staff ERA is top 5, then the Royals will flirt with the playoffs. If it is bottom 5, this will be a terrible year. If it's middle of the pack, then we're looking at a 74-ish win season.
They should score enough runs to generally compete. And they put together enough good plate appearances through the lineup that you'd hope they won't fall into those deep and dark slumps. But yeah, there are quite a few options for who can step up to help complete the lineup.
First 7 games (Minnesota, Toronto) will be interesting. Should give us a good sense of where we are at that stage.
Maybe. It's also seven games, likely in weather that suppresses offense.
I hope that Massey can hit and field as well as many people think. The Royals need solid defense to offset their abysmal starting pitching. Hopefully Lynch can have the year that has been previously been predicted and Keller can prove he is really a starting pitcher again. The Royals starting five will likely be one of the worst in the American League, so defense, defense, defense. Of course, scoring runs will help as well.
Massey is a good defender, but his arm is a liability. Like I've said, the shift restrictions should help him out there at least. I don't think we have any real way of knowing what the pitching staff is capable of. They've been led by incompetence for so long that it's hard to know if they're beyond repair or if new coaches can come in and coax the potential out of them. They may be one of the worst, but they also may not be. The data we've seen says they'll be bad, but they're also basically in a new organization in terms of instruction, so we just don't know for sure.
I find the outfield intriguing too, and not just for the up coming season. Who starts here at the beginning of the year, probably won't be the same starting 3 at the end. Nor will that group be the 3 at the end of 2024. My question is will any of the 3 be starting in 2025?
Both Isbel and Waters are question marks, can Melendez improve enough defensively to fend off the competition when better options become available? Part of the reason I say this is Tyler Gentry and Gavin Cross are coming soon if they continue to shine. I don't really see more than 1 out of the current group who will last. I hope I'm wrong, but none of this group seems a long term solution unless they improve in one way or another.
I think Melendez is absolutely a big league hitter. The question is where he plays in the field. And if it's with the Royals given the fact that he's a Boras client and likely won't be signing any sort of extension. We'll see how that goes.
I think pasquintino hits better than that and I think his slugging percentage will be higher than that. I think Witt average and especially his obp will be lower than that. I also think it's a big mistake to bring Lopez off the bench and start Massey. I think Lopez will bounce back and be closer to the 300 hitter he was 2 years ago. He also walks a lot. His obp will be a lot higher. They completely messed the guy up last year. The year before he was one of the best shortstops in the game and hit 300. The next year he loses out to Witt and they also moved him down in the lineup from batting leadoff to hitting ninth. That's going to mess with anyone's head. He needs that extra at bat each game from batting lead off
That is a lot of Royals food to chew on but it is finally time to eat! Dozier at third (and the apparent organization dedication to that path) is still tasting so bad that I can't even focus on the rest of the plate though...
I wouldn't worry too much about Dozier at third, honestly. Plus, there's too much fun of the young guys to let that sour anything.
Good stuff as usual, David. Thank you. Obviously we'll all have to wait and see whether all of the coaching changes unlock some of the (yet) unmet potential in the younger pitchers, but I'm squinting hard and trying to see a contender this year. If the collective group of second year hitters improve by 10-15% (as a group, not all of them individually) and someone (or just to dream, even two!) from the Lynch/Bubic/Kowar/Heasley group takes a leap similar to what Singer did last year, could you see a semi-realistic scenario where the Royals contend in the AL Central in 2023, or is that extreme wishful thinking?
It comes down to math really. The Guardians won the Central with 92 wins in 2022. The Royals were 27 games behind them. Let's assume 92 is still the number to beat. What bridges that gap enough? If the lineup is 15% better, that's 96 more runs (in a very simplistic view), which is 9.6 wins. The pitching staff (along with the defense) needs to be 17.4 wins better to get there. Adding 96 runs without a single addition is a pretty tall task in itself, but cutting 174 runs is an even taller task. There's more to it than that, especially if you think they're better with new leadership than they were last season, but there's a 270-run gap they need to close.
Can it happen? Sure. Especially with a team relying so heavily on young talent that could theoretically take off at any time. Is it likely? I would say not really. But that doesn't mean they can't play competitive games into the last month of the season and be within shouting distance.
I agree...Dozier is done like dinner!
Good insight as always! as an mlb desert fan of the rays (closest team is their AAA) I am excited to probably be heading to kc area this summer. that being said I Think? I can offer some nonbettable predictions on where I think KC might be headed based on some Piccolo and Q comments, rays watcher, and gut full of beer fan: (longwinded, silent fan rant coming up)
They will play everyone on the roster regularly, with a lot of callups from 40 man. They will PLAY THEM BASED ON MATCHUPS. Yes, basic platooning, but also any edge they can get - Rays played multiple catchers based on how they synced with pitchers (according to broadcasters). This makes me think Freddy will be on roster at some point, but agree - not to begin season. Framing does matter (for now) in some situations (especially young pitching staff). Salvy is the bomb, and I am guessing if he is on board with new regime, there is no way they trade him; Hope he stays the heart of this team, but guessing he won't be much over 100 games at catcher when he buys into "team first" mentality.
(Again) Everyone Plays- (Hunter Doziers numbers don't look horrible(serviceable? to me??), and yeah they will play him at third, but guessing sporadically?-Excited to see what yungun can look good at 3rd. (Any chance Maikel Garcia plays3rd?) But im thinking if a player is on the roster, they will get played to matchups and not ride bench whole season.
Lineup will also be based on matchups. Hope Eaton good enough defensively and gets a smidge better offensively to be in lineup semi regular. Thinking Nicky will be in there a bit too? I question if Duffy and Beaty will be given early season dibs, but certainly will be used at some point.
BWJ at ss no doubt, I bet whole year. I really think he will be the dude. Granted I only watched royals wins on mlb after break last year, but he reminds me so much of Lindor, he will get there defensively I think. And PASQUATCH? so much fun to watch, maybe he has a sophomore slump?, but agree - powerhouse, he will fix any slump.
Can someone punch my Royals fan card before they get good again? with the new interleague schedule, I won't go so far as predicting a winning record (but think it is more than possible), but I do think the Royals look a hell of a lot better this year!
, no