Thanks David - So are we starting to see some of the shine come off the starting pitching prospects already? Projections have them as 3,4,5 guys which is fine……but not what we were sold. It does concern me…….it might have been an article you wrote even…..that you normally find pitchers stabilize much quicker than hitters and not struggle out of the gate as much. I don’t think you can determine that after this last season….but it is interesting to start to see some of projections subdued a little bit for the pitchers.
The problem with projections for young players is that there isn't much data to go on. And especially this year, let's look at a guy like Daniel Lynch. Lynch had an up and down 2021 season at the big league level, but the projections can't even go to his minor league numbers in 2020 because there weren't any.
I think it'll be another season or two before the projections are as quality for young big leaguers because they don't have their minor league success that got them to the big leagues in the data based on having zero data in 2020. And for the Royals, many of their young pitchers debuted in 2021 after having no minor league data in 2020, so it's tough. I wouldn't say the shine is off. I'd say their struggles made it tough to project shine.
I hope you include your projections too in next year's look back. Always enjoy your work, and I'll be here to read next year's if the creek don't rise.
I was interested to see how many at bats each was given for 2022, and was not sure how we could (of if we could?) provide that many at bats to everyone. I still do not want to give up on Mondi. I hope that 2022 is the year to give the Big 3 prospects a bunch of time and, if possible (though I am not sure how unless we trade Whit and/or Mondi and give Dozier the bench, and Santana the bench/traded spots they deserve (though perhaps no problem to see if Santana can have good month or two to build trade value, especially since Pratto seemed to fade a little near the end of the year), even bring up Vinny. On the pitchers, I hope that we give our young guys plenty of coaching and opportunities, as starters and in the bullpen, to find out if we do have a #1 and/or #2 in the group, as well as how to sort out the rest to give us a hopefully loaded rotation and bullpen by 2023, without making the mistake of trading any away (not counting Minor here) or blocking any from getting their time. Finally, I have not cancelled my spring training trip yet, which included being there for including the first game. I am hoping that this lockout, and reaching resolution, does not slow us down too much, in terms of health training for Mondi, development training for our young guys, in terms of how long it takes to turn the corner.
It's important to remember that these projections aren't playing time predictions. The numbers won't work out entirely, so they're all kind of in a vacuum.
As for your spring trip, I just booked mine. And the good news is that even if they don't play, the weather and the food is awesome, so there's a lot to enjoy either way.
Thanks for this information. I'm rusty in stats due to my work, which recently ended. I look forward to getting into this stuff again even though this is not an exact science. Nice job, David.
Thanks David - So are we starting to see some of the shine come off the starting pitching prospects already? Projections have them as 3,4,5 guys which is fine……but not what we were sold. It does concern me…….it might have been an article you wrote even…..that you normally find pitchers stabilize much quicker than hitters and not struggle out of the gate as much. I don’t think you can determine that after this last season….but it is interesting to start to see some of projections subdued a little bit for the pitchers.
The problem with projections for young players is that there isn't much data to go on. And especially this year, let's look at a guy like Daniel Lynch. Lynch had an up and down 2021 season at the big league level, but the projections can't even go to his minor league numbers in 2020 because there weren't any.
I think it'll be another season or two before the projections are as quality for young big leaguers because they don't have their minor league success that got them to the big leagues in the data based on having zero data in 2020. And for the Royals, many of their young pitchers debuted in 2021 after having no minor league data in 2020, so it's tough. I wouldn't say the shine is off. I'd say their struggles made it tough to project shine.
I hope you include your projections too in next year's look back. Always enjoy your work, and I'll be here to read next year's if the creek don't rise.
I’m actually going to do projections again this year! I did them on Royals Review in 2020 in late February and got gun shy this year.
I was interested to see how many at bats each was given for 2022, and was not sure how we could (of if we could?) provide that many at bats to everyone. I still do not want to give up on Mondi. I hope that 2022 is the year to give the Big 3 prospects a bunch of time and, if possible (though I am not sure how unless we trade Whit and/or Mondi and give Dozier the bench, and Santana the bench/traded spots they deserve (though perhaps no problem to see if Santana can have good month or two to build trade value, especially since Pratto seemed to fade a little near the end of the year), even bring up Vinny. On the pitchers, I hope that we give our young guys plenty of coaching and opportunities, as starters and in the bullpen, to find out if we do have a #1 and/or #2 in the group, as well as how to sort out the rest to give us a hopefully loaded rotation and bullpen by 2023, without making the mistake of trading any away (not counting Minor here) or blocking any from getting their time. Finally, I have not cancelled my spring training trip yet, which included being there for including the first game. I am hoping that this lockout, and reaching resolution, does not slow us down too much, in terms of health training for Mondi, development training for our young guys, in terms of how long it takes to turn the corner.
It's important to remember that these projections aren't playing time predictions. The numbers won't work out entirely, so they're all kind of in a vacuum.
As for your spring trip, I just booked mine. And the good news is that even if they don't play, the weather and the food is awesome, so there's a lot to enjoy either way.
Thanks for this information. I'm rusty in stats due to my work, which recently ended. I look forward to getting into this stuff again even though this is not an exact science. Nice job, David.